Tuesday, October 18, 2011

World Series Preview: Rangers and Cardinals

So its time for the World Series. Here is the statistical preview:

The Rangers are going to look like this in the starting rotation: Wilson (.148 WAR per start, -1.87 PE), Lewis (.061 WAR per start, .51 PE), Harrison (.13 WAR per Start, 1.17 PE), Holland (.55 PE, .081 WAR per Start),  as starting pitchers. Their  bullpen looks like this Ogando (3.4 WAR, .3 PE), Feliz (-1.8 PE, .8 WAR), Gonzalez (-.55 PE, .2 WAR) , Adams (-5.24 PE, 1.7 WAR), Uejara (1.2 WAR, -7.09 PE), Oliver (-2.01 PE, 1.2 WAR), Lowe (.3 WAR and -.56 PE) and Feldman (.98 PE, .2 WAR). Their lineup will probably look like (in no particular order): Hamilton (.03 WAR per game, 1.723 PPG, 2.42 PAPP), Cruz (.011 WAR per Game, 1.52 PPG, 2.74 PAPP), Murphy (2.74 PAPP, .966 PPG, Negative WAR), Napoli (2.13 PAPP, .045 WAR per game, 1.504 PPG), Kinsler (2.39 PAPP, 1.67 PPG, .035 WAR per Game), Andrus (.024 WAR per game, 1.32 PPG, 2.68 PAPP) Beltre (1.76 PPG, .043 WAR per game, 2.63 PAPP), Young (.015 WAR per game, 2.5 PAPP, 1.33 PPG), and with the DH Torreabla (.006 WAR per game, .75 PPG, 3.14 PAPP).

 For the Cardinals, the starting rotation should look like: Carpenter (.11 WAR per Start, .07 PE), Lohse (.083 WAR per start, 1.66 PE), Garcia (.028 WAR per start, .34 PE), and Jackson (1.38 PE, .067 WAR).  Their bullpen maps out with these guys: Rhodes (2.95 PE, -.6 WAR), Rzepczynski (1 WAR, -2.07 PE), Dotel (-4.04 PE, .9 WAR), , Salas (-3.93 PE, 1 WAR), Westbrook (3.91 PE, Negative WAR), Mclellen (3.23 PE, negative WAR), Motte (-3.15 PE, 1.6 WAR), and Boggs (.3 WAR, .43 PE). They will probably run out this lineup (in no order): Jay (.01 WAR per game, 2.92 PAPP, .63 PPG), Berkman (.036 WAR per game, 1.5 PPG, 2.21 PAPP) , Holliday (.033 WAR per game, 1.48 PPG, 2.4 PAPP), Pujols (.037 WAR per game, 2.33 PAPP, 1.7 PPG), Freese (1.1 PPG, .019 WAR per game, 2.71 PAPP), Furcal (.028 WAR per game, 2.855 PAPP, 1.12 PPG), Schumaker (.005 WAR per game, 3.05 PAPP, .63 PPG), Molina (2.71 PAPP, .99 PPG, .028 WAR per game), and when DH Craig (2.33 PAPP, 1.19 PPG, and .039 WAR per game).

As far as starting pitching goes, The Rangers have advantage in game 1 (and in turn, gave 5), and in games 2 and 6 it is a split as Lewis has a better PE, while Lohse has a better WAR. Basically the same happens in game 3 and 7 between Harrison and Garcia. In game 4, Holland is better than Edwin Jackson, so the Rangers have the clear advantage in starting pitching. The Rangers bullpen has a much better WAR, and a much better than PE. It is not even close, the Rangers have the better bullpen. With or without the DH, the Cardinals have the better lineup according to WAR, but the Rangers have the better Production Per Game (with or without the DH). The Cardinals also have the higher Plate Appearances per Positive Play, which is bad, you want the lower number. Something similar happened in the Tampa Bay and Ranger series, as the Rangers were better at PPG and PAPP but worse at WAR. This is most likely because of defense. So the Rangers have the better offense and pitching. The Cardinals are only better at defense. So the statistics show a clear advantage for the Rangers in this series.

No comments:

Post a Comment