A Pitch F/X Look at John Gast

With the injury to Jake Westbrook, the Cardinals brought up John Gast to make a start for the big league team, and over 6 innings he performed reasonably well, with 3 strikeouts and a walk, earning another start in the big leagues. Gast was picked in the 6th round out of college by the Cardinals, and was their 13th best prospect (according to Baseball America) by the end of the year (he had slipped to number 26 by 2012). This was his first Pitch F/X game, so let's look at Gast and see if he is someone who can stick in the big leagues long term as a starter.

First let's look at his release point in graph form:

Gast's average release point was 2.91 horizontally and 6.34 vertically, which compares almost exactly to Andrew Miller as a starter. As you will see, Gast doesn't have really anything else in common with Miller, especially when it comes to stuff and control.

Here is where Gast was throwing the ball, his strike zone with the official results of each pitch:

 It seems that he threw the majority of the pitches inside to righties/away from lefties, what you would call glove side. He mostly avoided the center of the plate, working the corners, and he worked the high part of the plate probably more than he worked in the low part of the plate.

Here is what his stuff looks like via his spin and speed chart:

Obviously he isn't any kind of hard thrower, with just a couple pitches over 91 MPH. I see 4 different kind of pitches here, so this is how I broke down his pitches, along with the average MPH, and the closest comparison out of left-handed starters in the Pitch F/X era.

47 Fastballs: 88.38 MPH, Dallas Braden

3 Cutters: 83.12 MPH, Bruce Chen

5 Curves: 73.46 MPH, James Russell

16 Changeups: 79.4 MPH, Mark Buerhle

As a prospect, Gast was known for his changeup, as it ranked the best in the system after 2011. Braden's cutter was also very close to Gast's in velocity, but Braden's curve is harder and his change much softer. Jason Vargas also hovered close on some of the pitches, which would make some sense, as Vargas is a cutter and changeup heavy pitcher.

So the stuff is obviously below average, but you have to like where his pitch comparisons look like, as he compares to some other successful soft-tossing lefties.

These are the average locations of each one of his pitches, basically where each pitch is usually going to end up:

He goes glove side with his fastball and his cutter, and arm side with his change, throwing his curveball straight down. This is the again what you might call the Jason Vargas approach, throwing fastballs and cutters into righties, trying to jam them even with bad velocity (which is a big reason Vargas is so homer prone, as many get left over the plate at 86-88 MPH), and then throwing the changeup away from them.

The problem with determining whether or not Gast will be a successful starter or not is that we still haven't really seen why some of the well below average fastball lefties are successful and some are not. If it really is the curveball/changeup usage distinction, then we would not expect Gast to be successful. I just don't know how much I buy into that distinction.

A Pitch F/X Look At Carlos Martinez

Carlos Martinez got an unexpected call up to the big leagues from the Cardinals last week. The 21 year old right-hander has been a starter in the minors, but they have brought him up as a reliever, a curious move from a development perspective. With that said, let's look at what he has shown in relief so far, and see if we can use tools to project how he might pitch as a starter in the big leagues.

First, let's look at his release point, which has been 5.39 vertically and -1.32 horizontally. Obviously that short of a height makes it hard to make comparisons for him. I count only 3 starters in our release point comparisons that had a 5.3 vertical release point, Tim Hudson, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Chad Gaudin (there are two 5.2 and 5.1 pitchers). Those pitchers have all had injury issues, though two of them are very successful MLB starters.

As a reliever Casey Janssen is really close and the best comparison. I count 10 different relievers that have a 5.3 vertical release point, several of them very successful or hard throwing (Marmol, Romo, League, Camp, Heilman, and Miller for example).

He is just 6 foot, so this explains part of it, but it still shouldn't be this low, especially since he isn't coming out sidearm as well. I took this screenshot that I think illustrates why it is so low:

It is not good posture, which makes you wonder if he can stay healthy as a starter or have good control. His head is in an okay place, but most of his body is moving away from his arm.

Let's take a look at his pitches, as always, starting with the spin and speed chart:

I see two different kind of fastballs and a curveball:

98.33 MPH Fastball
94.71 MPH Moving Fastball
80.79 MPH curve

Since the average regression from the bullpen to the rotation is 1.29 MPH, here is how Martinez' pitches would theoretically look like in the rotation:

97.04 MPH Fastball
93.42 MPH Moving Fastball
79.5 MPH Curve

Stephen Strasburg has the highest average fastball for a right-handed starter in the Pitch F/X era and it averages 96.88 MPH. Strasburg's curve is harder than Martinez' projects to be (and even is as a reliever), but the fastball is better for Martinez, though the sinker (or the more moving fastball) isn't as hard.

When I watched Martinez in the minors last year (and wrote about it on the blog), his problems stemmed from breaking ball and offspeed command. As a reliever, all he has shown is 3 curveballs, with no sliders or changeups. With his plus plus fastball that reaches 100 MPH, he doesn't need those off-speed pitches out of the bullpen. It is basically Nathan Jones or Trevor Rosenthal stuff. He can clearly be an elite reliever, but can he be a successful starter? With the data we have, we can't say, and there seems to be some serious command questions when looking at his delivery.

Greg Garcia Scouting Report

The Texas League (AA) had some really good shortstops in 2012. The headliner was obviously Jurickson Profar, but Josh Rutledge went on to have a little success in the Majors with the Rockies later in the year, Leury Garcia (when he wasn't stuck at 2nd) is an intriguing prospect, and Jean Segura was one of the main pieces that got the Angels Zack Greinke for the last 2 months of the season (and Segura has a shot of starting for the Brewers in 2013). However, none of those were the league's best hitter, as the best hitting middle infielder (qualified 2nd baseman or shortstops) was the Cardinals' Greg Garcia. In a league where the average player was about 24 years old, Garcia was 22 (meaning he wasn't too old for the league).

Since being drafted out of the University of Hawaii in the 7th round of the 2010 draft, Garcia has hit well in every level he has been in. He has 146 walks (12.3 %) and 185 strikeouts (15.6 %) so far in his career and had a 137 wRC + / 117 wOBA + /132 OPS + in AA in 2012. This kind of hitting makes it hard not to be noticed.

Supposedly, the Springfield Cardinals park is friendly for lefties, but it has played basically Texas League average (the league average slash line is .257/.327/.391) over the last two seasons as a whole. So while there are some reasons to be skeptical of his very slight power jump (.136 ISO and 10 homers versus .125 career ISO and just 6 homers in the 163 games before 2012). He did hit for more power at home (.454 SLG to .383 SLG on the road), but was a better OBP guy on the road. This is most likely who he is, a high OBP, low power guy, a skillset that works when you are a middle infielder. He has an extremely high GB % (over 50% in 2012), so it is unlikely that his high BABIPs (.320 and over in every level so far) will translate to the Majors. So there are some reasons to be a little skeptical of his bat statistically, at least not being as excited about him as his numbers say we should be. In watching him at the plate, the scrawny looking player has what looks like a quick bat along with some good bat control. He isn't afraid to uppercut his swing, which might be more of a concern (because of the inevitability of infield pop-ups and what appears to be below average power) if he didn't have such a high ground-ball percentage. The swing is smooth and he keeps his head on the barrel and the follow through is really pretty to watch.

While he had a positive FRAA in the APPY league in 2010, he mainly played second base. He had a negative FRAA in 2012, but he played only shortstop. With that said, he did have a better than average range factor at shortstop, making it seem like his 20 errors were the reason he didn't rate positively. Obviously when you are looking at prospects, it is much less worrisome if they lack polish defensively than whether or not they actually have the athleticism for the position. It seems that Garcia has plenty of athleticism, as I've clocked him as an above average runner, and he had a 5.1 speed score in 2012 (and throughout his short minor league career, he has hovered around 5.0). With that said, he isn't much of a stolen base threat, stealing just 18 bases (with 11 caught stealings) over the last two seasons. He appears to have a strong arm, further solidifying his role as a solid middle infielder.

Despite not showing up on hardly any Cardinals' prospect rankings from what I have seen, there is a lot to like about Garcia. Even if he moves to 2nd more permanently, that still provides him with good positional value and there are a lot of reasons to think that he will hit in the Majors. I don't see him hitting for much power, but he has good peripherals, along with a good average (that is, he isn't relying solely on walks, as prospects that do tend not to pan out. Of course, many of them are 1st base/DH types with slow bat speed) in the minors. There isn't anything alarming in his swing and he takes a lot of pitches. He does have big platoon splits in the minors, but they weren't as bad in 2012, as he held his own against lefties. Left-handed hitting middle infielders with solid/average tools are valuable (at the very least he is a platoon, and the good kind, one that can play 75 % of the time, utility infielder) and he is a guy that could help the Cardinals soon.

Times to First: Part 19

1. Derek Dietrich (Rays AA): 11.23 (on a triple)

2. Zach Collier (Phillies A +): 4.03

3. Cody Asche (Phillies AA): 4.34/4.27

4. Rymer Liraino (Padres AA): 4.27

5. Hunter Morris (Brewers AA): 4.3

6. Nick Castellanos (Tigers AA): 4.21

7. Christian Yelich (Marlins A+): 4.26

8. Mike Zunino (Mariners AA): 4.45

9. Cesar Puello (Mets A +): 4.19

10. Cody Stanley (Cardinals A+): 4.30

11. Randal Grichuk (Angels A+): 4.30

12. Matt Curry (Pirates AAA): 4.27

13. A.J. Kirby-Jones (Padres A+): 4.92

14. Nate Roberts (Twins A+): 4.21

15. Nate Freiman (Padres AA): 4.39

16. Anthony Rendon (Nationals AA): 4.31

17. Juan Lagares (Mets AA): 4.28

18. Wil Myers (Rays AAA): 11.49 on a triple

19. Kevin Mattison (Marlins): 10.79 on a triple

20. James Baldwin (Dodgers A): 10.86 on a triple

So these should be all the times we have so far (as always, if there is a mistake etc., just comment or let me know):

Nationals sign Edwin Jackson

The Washington Nationals have signed starting pitcher Edwin Jackson to a 1 year 10 million dollar deal. According to Fangraphs, Jackson has averaged a WAR of 3.73 over the last 3 years. Jackson is usually known for being pretty inconsistent, but that seems to be a misnomer when looking at key pitching stats, as his last 3 WARs have been 3.6, 3.8, 3.8, with FIP - of 96, 91, 89, with a little more variance of Adjusted PEs of 1.14, .09, and 1.22. With Jackson, he has pitched in so many different places that we should know what kind of pitcher he is without even using ballpark adjusted metrics. He has done an okay job keeping the ball in the ballpark in his career with a .99 HR/9IP rate. He has really improved his groundball rate over the last two years, with 1.55 and 1.4 GB/FB ratios in 2010 and 2011 respectively. He throws just a touch under 95 on his fastball on average, and has had very nice walk rates over the last 3 years. His SIERAs have been funky over the last 3 years, disagreeing with his FIPs big time. This is just a 1 year deal, so its not a long term risk. 10 million dollars actually seems slightly low according to Fangraphs WAR, and this seems to be a pretty poor deal for Jackson. This is not only a great deal for the Nationals, but it makes me wonder why 29 other teams weren't making this offer.

Cardinals sign J.C. Romero

The Cardinals signed reliever J.C. Romero for a 1 year $750,000 deal. Romero had a .1 WAR in 2011 (he split the season between the Phillies and the Rockies). He threw just 24 innings though, so it hardly seems to be a adequate sample size. Over the past 3 years, he has pitched 78 innings and has a .7 WAR over that time (.23 WAR a season, worth about $700,000 a year). Over this time, he has a .861 PE, pretty poor for a reliever, and has walked almost as many batters as he has struck out. His career PE (he has played in 13 seasons), is .852, almost exactly the same. So it is not as if there has been a regression. His career FIP - is 100, and his SIERA is 4.36. His TR fits in with the averageness of Romero at 8.31. The overall reaction to this deal should be a shrug of the shoulders. Romero is average at best, and $750,000 may be a little bit much for him, but its not like the Cardinals are shelling out big money for him.

Tigers sign Octavio Dotel

The Tigers signed Octavio Dotel to a 1 year 3 million dollar contract with an option year of 3.5 million with a $500,000 buyout. I will assume here that they will buy him out, so the contract is 3.5 million. Dotel had a .6 WAR in 2011 (a 5833 WASP with the new contract) and a .7 WAR average over the past 3 years (a 5000 WASP). He had a -4.04 PE and -4.31 Adjusted PE in 2011, so in that sense he pitched like one of the elite relievers in baseball. He had the lowest WHIP he had since 2003, but also had his lowest BABIP since 2005. However, he also had his lowest FIP since 2002, so its not like he was just really lucky. He pitched really really well. His TR also reflected that with a 10.42, along with a SIERA of 2.67. He did throw the lowest amount of pitches since 2007, but with no that could simply be how he was used. On the other hand, 54 innings (his 2011 total) is hardly a large sample size. The HR/9IP rate as well as the groundball rate are things that do concern me. Comerica Park can somewhat mask those rates, and Dotel has shown that those rates aren't that important as he has been dealing with them his whole career. Although this is more than I like to pay for relievers, this deal might not be bad at all. 

World Series Champion Arthur Rhodes

Arthur Rhodes was released by the Texas Rangers earlier in the year, and was signed by Cardinals. No matter who wins the World Series, he gets a ring. The Cardinals are only paying him $100,000. Rhodes has posted a .1 WAR in both Texas and St. Louis. For St. Louis, that is a very nice WASP of 1000. Texas gave him a 3.9 million dollar contract for 2011. On first blush, it would seem that he is a  victim of the home run friendly Ballpark in Arlington. In 18 games in the Ballpark of Arlington, he gave up an OBP of .367, OPS of .992, .326 BABIP, and 4 home runs in the 60 batters he faced. In St.Louis' home park, he is giving up just a .200 BAA. Rhodes certainly wasn't unlucky in Texas though, as his ERA was 4.81 but his FIP was 5.98. It certainly seems like he has been lucky and a beneficiary of good fielding as a Cardinal, as his FIP is pretty putrid at 5.68 (his normal ERA is 4.15), and his BABIP is extremely low at .182. While he gave up 2.22 HR/9IP as a Ranger, he has still given up 2.08 HR/9IP as a Cardinal (he hadn't given up anything close to that since 2004). Rhodes is certainly not the same pitcher he was in 2010 as a Red. Sometimes I guess that it is better to be lucky than good.

World Series Preview: Rangers and Cardinals

So its time for the World Series. Here is the statistical preview:

The Rangers are going to look like this in the starting rotation: Wilson (.148 WAR per start, -1.87 PE), Lewis (.061 WAR per start, .51 PE), Harrison (.13 WAR per Start, 1.17 PE), Holland (.55 PE, .081 WAR per Start),  as starting pitchers. Their  bullpen looks like this Ogando (3.4 WAR, .3 PE), Feliz (-1.8 PE, .8 WAR), Gonzalez (-.55 PE, .2 WAR) , Adams (-5.24 PE, 1.7 WAR), Uejara (1.2 WAR, -7.09 PE), Oliver (-2.01 PE, 1.2 WAR), Lowe (.3 WAR and -.56 PE) and Feldman (.98 PE, .2 WAR). Their lineup will probably look like (in no particular order): Hamilton (.03 WAR per game, 1.723 PPG, 2.42 PAPP), Cruz (.011 WAR per Game, 1.52 PPG, 2.74 PAPP), Murphy (2.74 PAPP, .966 PPG, Negative WAR), Napoli (2.13 PAPP, .045 WAR per game, 1.504 PPG), Kinsler (2.39 PAPP, 1.67 PPG, .035 WAR per Game), Andrus (.024 WAR per game, 1.32 PPG, 2.68 PAPP) Beltre (1.76 PPG, .043 WAR per game, 2.63 PAPP), Young (.015 WAR per game, 2.5 PAPP, 1.33 PPG), and with the DH Torreabla (.006 WAR per game, .75 PPG, 3.14 PAPP).

 For the Cardinals, the starting rotation should look like: Carpenter (.11 WAR per Start, .07 PE), Lohse (.083 WAR per start, 1.66 PE), Garcia (.028 WAR per start, .34 PE), and Jackson (1.38 PE, .067 WAR).  Their bullpen maps out with these guys: Rhodes (2.95 PE, -.6 WAR), Rzepczynski (1 WAR, -2.07 PE), Dotel (-4.04 PE, .9 WAR), , Salas (-3.93 PE, 1 WAR), Westbrook (3.91 PE, Negative WAR), Mclellen (3.23 PE, negative WAR), Motte (-3.15 PE, 1.6 WAR), and Boggs (.3 WAR, .43 PE). They will probably run out this lineup (in no order): Jay (.01 WAR per game, 2.92 PAPP, .63 PPG), Berkman (.036 WAR per game, 1.5 PPG, 2.21 PAPP) , Holliday (.033 WAR per game, 1.48 PPG, 2.4 PAPP), Pujols (.037 WAR per game, 2.33 PAPP, 1.7 PPG), Freese (1.1 PPG, .019 WAR per game, 2.71 PAPP), Furcal (.028 WAR per game, 2.855 PAPP, 1.12 PPG), Schumaker (.005 WAR per game, 3.05 PAPP, .63 PPG), Molina (2.71 PAPP, .99 PPG, .028 WAR per game), and when DH Craig (2.33 PAPP, 1.19 PPG, and .039 WAR per game).

As far as starting pitching goes, The Rangers have advantage in game 1 (and in turn, gave 5), and in games 2 and 6 it is a split as Lewis has a better PE, while Lohse has a better WAR. Basically the same happens in game 3 and 7 between Harrison and Garcia. In game 4, Holland is better than Edwin Jackson, so the Rangers have the clear advantage in starting pitching. The Rangers bullpen has a much better WAR, and a much better than PE. It is not even close, the Rangers have the better bullpen. With or without the DH, the Cardinals have the better lineup according to WAR, but the Rangers have the better Production Per Game (with or without the DH). The Cardinals also have the higher Plate Appearances per Positive Play, which is bad, you want the lower number. Something similar happened in the Tampa Bay and Ranger series, as the Rangers were better at PPG and PAPP but worse at WAR. This is most likely because of defense. So the Rangers have the better offense and pitching. The Cardinals are only better at defense. So the statistics show a clear advantage for the Rangers in this series.

Free Agent Watch: Raul Valdes

Yankees reliever Raul Valdes elected free agency on Tuesday. Valdes started the year with the Cardinals, and made just 6 appearances for the Yankees and registered a .2 WAR. In 70.2 career big league innings, Valdes has a -.2 WAR (.3 WAR overall last year), a TR of 7.89 and a PE of -.27. These numbers put him with basically any mediocre reliever. At age 33, and with so little big league experience, it is hard to gain any kind of excitement about him. Somehow, he was worse in AAA (4.38 ERA) than he was in the Majors in 2011. He had an amazing K/BB ration (almost 9), but gave up a HR every 9 innings and gave up more hits than innings pitched. He is pre-arbitration eligible, and his BABIP was .412 in the majors in 2011, so he may be due for some good luck, but it is hard to count on that. His ability to strikeout people alone will be attractive enough for some club to sign him, but I wouldn't give a cent more than minimum salary, and wouldn't guarantee him a roster spot. Frankly, there are a lot of pitchers just like him.

Free Agent Watch: Andrew Brown

The St. Louis Cardinals designated Andrew Brown for assignment this week. He could still be outrighted to the minors, but could be claimed by another team and a deal could be made. In the minors, he has a 2.54 PAP, and a 1.38 PPG with a .857 OPS and .365 OBP. These numbers are not all that impressive. However, rather strangely, he has been better in AAA with a 1.53 PPG, 2.4 PAPP, .833 OPS, and .382 OBP. He played sparingly in the Majors this year, but only in 11 games with 22 plate appearances, so statistical analysis would be useless. He appears to have been a find, as he was picked in the 18th round of the 2007 draft. He is already 27, so it is hard to imagine he will improve much more (if at all), and should be in his prime. He has the most experience at 1st (238 games), but has also played corner outfield and 3rd. He is the best at LF as far as fielding percentage (.988) with a 1.42 Range Factor. The Major League average for LF was .982 in 2011 and Delmon Young, a pretty bad fielder, has a 1.88 Range Factor at LF. So it seems that Brown is about an average LF. Brown's worst position is 3rd (.941), and it seems doubtful that a MLB team would want to use him there. His best Range Factor is actually at first though, with a 8.40. The League average was 9.31 though, so it is difficult to see Brown having a big future there. It is always hard to tell how numbers will translate from AAA to the Majors, but the OBP certainly gives hope. The AAA numbers overall are very encouraging. It is hard to put just a whole lot of value on him though, unless a team with a low payroll really needs a 4th or 5th outfielder and is willing to give up a prospect with a relatively high ceiling but still being far away. My guess is that no one will claim him and he will stay with the Cardinals.

The Colby Rasmus trade: Who has gotten better value so far

Right before the non-waiver trade deadline, the Cardinals got Edwin Jackson,   Octavio Dotel and Marc Rzepczynski, and Corey Patterson. The Blue Jays got Colby Rasmus, P.J. Walters, Trever Miller and Brian Tallet. For the Jays, Colby Rasmus was a disaster in 2011, a -.9 WAR and injury problems. Trever Miller was a really pointless pickup, registering a 0 WAR in 3.2 IP, was released and signed by the division rival Red Sox. Tallet managed to pick up a -.6 WAR despite only pitching .1 innings for the Jays. Walters threw just 1 inning and registered a 0 WAR. For the Cardinals Edwin Jackson had a .8 WAR, Dotel had a .2, Corey Patterson had a -.4 WAR, and Rzepczynski had a .1 WAR. For the Cardinals, the trade had a slightly positive effect, and they needed everything they could get with their improbable comeback to sneak into the wild-card. For Toronto, the trade was for the future, but the players they got actually hurt them down the stretch.

Corey Patterson has been a disaster for the Cardinals

In one of his final games as a Toronto Blue Jay, Corey Patterson was put in as a substitute fielder in the bottom of the 9th in Texas. He misjudged a ball, it sailed over his head and the Rangers won on a walk off. Yesterday, the Cardinals were up by 1 in the 9th, and a Corey Patterson error caused them to go into extra innings (they won anyway, beating the Phillies). Granted, it was his 1st error as a Cardinal and he had a slightly positive defensive WAR coming into the day as a Cardinal, but he has been absolutely atrocious on offense, with a .180 OBP, .416 OPS, 0 homers or steals, and just 3 rbis since coming over at the end of August. In the massive trade between the two teams, there were some curious players included. It didn't make any sense for the Blue Jays to pick up Trever Miller (who has already been released and picked up by the Red Sox), and I certainly wasn't excited about the Cardinals picking up Corey Patterson (he isn't a young prospect or anything). Yes he is making very little by Major League standards ($900,000), and had a WAR of .9 with the Blue Jays this year (giving him a very nice WASP of 666 for his 4 months as a Blue Jay), but he has racked up a -.4 WAR as a Cardinal (because they are giving him so little money for his two months of play, his WASP is still very good). It was a small risk for the Cardinals, but its hard to imagine that Patterson would be this bad.

Grading the Chris Carpenter contract

The Cardinals announced this week that they were giving the 36 year old righty Chris Carpenter a 2 year $21 million extension. Giving multi year deals to players over 35, especially pitchers, is usually not advisable. This year he was making a mind numbing 15 million dollars, and is having a year that most people agree is not quite his best. However, there is nothing to complain about as he has given them over 200 innings, with a 3.75 ERA, 1.299 WHIP, and a 23 RAR. Just as far as the eyeball test goes, he doesn't appear to be losing it, and has posted a WAR of 2.6. However, because of his large salary, his WASP (Wins above replacement and salary per) is 5769, much too high. Seeing that he will make around 10.5 million dollars next year, an exact same WAR would give him a WASP over 4000 (what I call the "Halladay standard" is 3000, that should be the goal for "good", like a .280 BA or 4.00 ERA). His WAR dropped from 3.2 in 2010 to 2.6 in 2011, and if that happens again with his new contract, his WASP would be a disastrous 5250 (still lower than this year's).  Fox Sports wrote that this is "a good deal for both sides", I beg to differ.