Miguel Sano's Pitch F/X Data

Miguel Sano is well known as the power hitting 3rd baseman in the Twins organization, and was one of the team's Futures Game representatives. He was the hitter that saw the most pitches (22) in the game according to Pitch F/X (he was 0-2, with a walk and a HBP), and because of that, I wanted to take a look at his data during the game, to see what he pitches he saw, and how he reacted to them.

Compared to other Futures Game hitters, Sano was pitched really low on average, but swung at pitches that were higher and more inside (he is a right-handed hitter) on average, and had one of the biggest differences between average pitch seen and average pitch swung at, as far as location, in the Futures Game. Sano also only saw pitches against right-handed pitchers, meaning he never had the platoon advantage during the game, as the following graph shows:

He saw some pretty distinct release points, including a couple of pitches delivered basically behind him. Not surprisingly, his two contact plays came on balls delivered closer to the center of the rubber.

The following graph contains the pitches Miguel Sano swung at. As you will notice, the entire graph is the strike zone, as Sano was not one of the players that swung at a pitch outside of the traditional strike zone in the game.

All fastballs, and all in the zone. Here are the results and the velocities of those pitches.

He managed to foul off a fastball close to a 100 MPH, and both of the balls he put in play were over 95 MPH, so even with the whiff, the bat speed looks like it is there. 

Here were all the fastballs Sano saw in the game by location, labelled with result:

 Due to the nature of the Futures Game, Sano didn't see any pitches labelled as changeups, and saw just 4 breaking balls (not swinging at any of them):

We didn't see Sano's power in the Futures Game, but there is nothing that tells us that the power isn't legitimate. Small sample sizes obviously apply, but we saw a glimpse of good bat speed and good plate discipline in the Futures Game from Sano.

Is Bruce Rondon Ready to Be a MLB Closer?

Bruce Rondon has been the subject of one of the more discussed storylines of the 2013 spring training, as the Tigers have insisted that they are going to use the rookie as their closer this year. Despite having a reputation of being an extremely hard thrower, the announcement was widely scorned because of Rondon's lack of experience. So far in spring training, his struggles have been widely documented, and he has struggled with control. I watched one of his outings on MLB Network and took some notes, and wanted to see if he was a pitcher that the Tigers should trust in close situations.

He is a big beefy right-handed pitcher, but perhaps has a little more athleticism that you would expect, (though obviously he isn't Austin Jackson on the mound). I think he provides a little bit of deception in his delivery, but nothing too major, or anything that seems especially hard to repeat.

He faced 4 righties and 2 lefties from the Braves, all MLB caliber or close to MLB caliber players. Here are the results, velocity, and location for all of his pitches in his inning of work.
I don't think his fastball is flat, it moves, and had a little arm-side tail at times. When down it could be a really nice groundball pitch, and could work as a sinker.

It seemed that maybe he wasn't finishing his delivery. He really fell off the mound a couple of times. Just from watching, his release point may not have been real inconsistent, but his body finishing point really was. I would think this would be a little concerning when it comes to injury than control.

 The slider did not look impressive for the most part. The break just wasn't very hard, mainly vertical. However, he threw one great one to B.J. Upton that bounced and was chased, only to pull the ball, not land consistently, and yank the next one past the catcher. Rondon also seems to have a separate change that breaks arm-side. He had absolutely no control of this and it moved well off the plate arm-side.

He was obviously hit hard by Justin Upton and Tyler Pastornicky, as both of the flyballs were deep flyballs. The control issues, lack of quality breaking ball, and fastball being hittable are all the problems that Rondon was said to have. Let's look at the data though.

His average pitch was 92.63 MPH. Out of all pitchers that have thrown at least 500 pitches since 2007, that number would be tied for 5th best. The names ahead of him aren't big names (besides Chapman, Cleto was a relatively big name in prospect circles from 2 years ago, and Villarreal is a teammate), but it is clear that Rondon is an extremely hard thrower, with elite velocity. He hits 99-100 MPH, or at least has in other outings, and didn't do so in this one, so one could imagine that it could get even harder.

He threw an average of 96.69 MPH on his fastball. That is tied for Tom Wilhelmsen for the 22nd best since 2007. Rondon averaged 84.5 MPH on his off-speed/breaking pitches. This obviously isn't elite, especially for sliders, and even for a changeup. Speed differential is overrated, but Rondon has it. I would rather him just have a 89-90 MPH breaking ball.

He got 4 swinging strikes, solid for 24 pitches. Amazingly, he got just one called strike. 11 of the 24 pitches were balls, just a 54.2 strike percentage. Obviously this is the problem. The 50 % swing rate is above average though, meaning that even though he threw a lot of balls, he got hitters to swing.

Here is his heatmap (remember, I am not distinguishing between balls and strikes and it is from a catcher perspective: 

8	1	1
1	4
2	4	3

As mentioned above, it didn't look like he was finishing his delivery, and was throwing mainly arm-side. He threw low and high about equally, usually throwing the fastball high and off-speed low (though sometimes the opposite).

I sort of wonder why Brayan Villarreal isn't getting more talk when it comes to be the Tigers' closer. He throws harder than Rondon (at least his averages are better than Rondon's was in the outing discussed above) and was really successful in the Majors last year. He had the platoon advantage more than league average, but even if he faces more lefties, his numbers should still be solid. For what it is worth, and it isn't worth much because projection systems are terrible at projecting rookie pitchers, Villarreal is projected to do much better.

You can see the raw stuff Rondon has. He should be a really nice reliever in the future. Whether or not that future is a month from now is the question. I think Rondon could hold his own and be an above replacement/non embarrassing reliever in the big leagues now. However, I would want to see him get some more seasoning, work on his breaking pitches, and see if he can tinker with his command/delivery a little more before bringing him into high leverage spots on a consistent basis.

Scouting Report on Pedro Hernandez

Pedro Hernandez was traded from the Padres to the White Sox in the Carlos Quentin trade. The White Sox then traded him in the middle of the year in part of a deal to get Francisco Liriano (who gave the White Sox .7 fWAR, a lot of strikeouts, but too many walks with too many homers).

Hernandez is 23 years old and is a short but stout lefty (5-10, 200). He is fastball heavy (upper 80s to low 90s, sits about 90 MPH), but it doesn't seem to play as well against righties, especially when he tries to keep it away. He likes to throw the fastball high, but moves it inside and outside. It looks like he has decent looking command with it. Hernandez also throws what looks like a sinker that he keeps low with some okay movement.
His main off-speed pitch is a change that he can throw for strikes. He will throw it to lefties as well, and tries to locate it on the outside corner to them, with pretty good success. It doesn't have great movement, but the location, speed differential, and ability to sell it with his arm action makes it a pretty good pitch.
He also mixes in a slider that dives into the dirt pretty sharply. I liked the break on it, but he really didn't throw it much when I watched him.

Statistically, Hernandez doesn't have big splits, which surprises me. I guess he locates the change well enough to keep hitters off balance. However, he does not have a good ground-ball rate, despite good looking command. That is at least somewhat concerning and it is not as if he makes up for it with a lot of infield fly-balls.

Overall, he throws a lot of strikes (over 66%) and at-bats don't usually last very long (3.48 Pit/PA over the last two years). He just doesn't walk batters (walk percentage under 5% over the last two years), but he doesn't strikeout a lot of people either.

Hernandez seems to have the mix of pitches and command to be a starter in the big leagues. It is very doubtful that he can be average, but he can certainly be acceptable. The question will obviously be whether or not he is too hittable. He is the type of pitcher who succeeds in AAA only to struggle in the Majors, a pitchability lefty with mediocre stuff. I think I am bullish on Hernandez though, I could see him being a capable above replacement starter in the Majors. He seems to be the kind of guy who would benefit from a pitcher friendly park more than an average pitcher. According to @Toritap's park factors, Target Field played slightly in favor of pitchers this year.

Scouting Report on Miguel Sano

Miguel Sano in the Twins organization has been turning some heads with some pretty good power numbers. He is also a guy that swings and misses a lot. Currently in A-ball, I wanted to get a look at Sano, so I watched a few of his games. Some have thought that the Twins will eventually have to move him from third, so I also wanted to look at his defense.

Sunday June 10th:
The first impression is that the guy is just huge, and could even get bigger as far as weight and muscle, but he would definitely have to move off 3rd if that happens.

Offense: At-bat 1: took curve for strike, fouled off high curve (was early on i), took inside curve, took high inside curve, took moving fastball in, chased low moving fastball in the dirt for a strikeout. I almost wrote that he wasn't just wildly chasing everything before he chased the last one. In his 2nd at-bat, Sano took a curve on the inside part of the plate for a strike before chasing a moving fastball low and away. A curve on the low inside part of the plate turned into another swing and miss. In 3rd at-bat, he finally swung at the first pitch curve in the zone, but it was a weak fly-ball to 2nd. In his 4th at-bat, he took a low breaking pitch out of the zone in the dirt to get ahead. A breaking ball then appeared to drift off the plate and Sano loaded but decided to not pull the trigger. The umpire erroneously called it a strike. The pitcher then hung a breaking ball, and Sano got around on it but was a tad early. He grounded out to 3rd base.

Defense: First batter in 2nd inning hit the ball to him, didn't have to move at all and made play easily. It looks like he has a cannon! Later in the inning, a ball was hit in his area again, and it appeared that it just hopped over his glove. He didn't get an error. In the 9th, the first hitter hit a chopper just to Sano's left. He got to it easily and threw it quickly and hard to get the out.

I wanted to see more of Sano, so I went back and watched part of his game on the 9th on Milb.tv. In his first at-bat, you don't really see anything different . The pitcher threw a curveball for a looking strike on the inside corner, followed by another one to get up 0-2. He then tried to get Sano to strikeout how we saw in the previous game, by throwing a breaking pitch low and away. Sano stayed off that one, but a curve in the same spot was chased by Sano for a strikeout. In the bottom of the 1st, the first hitter hit the ball hard to him at 3rd. He had problems with at first, bobbling it, but showed off the arm and got the runner out. If they really do have to move him from 3rd, I hope he is moved to LF/RF as that arm would basically be a waste at 1st.
In his 2nd at-bat, a wild breaking ball low and outside got Sano ahead 1-0. A low and away change-up was swung at by Sano, and missed. A 2-seam looking fastball was thrown middle-down in the zone and Sano missed that one too. Another low and away breaking ball was taken to even it at 2-2. A moving fastball hit the dirt to run it to a full count. A middle-low 2-seamer was hit very softly toward the 1st baseman, and Sano was an easy out as the pitcher made the play. Again, we see that Sano is not chasing wildly. In that sense he is not just absolutely overwhelmed at the plate. However, Class A pitching clearly has a plan against him: Throw nothing straight, keep it low, work mostly away, especially when ahead. Sano obviously has some very serious adjustments to make.
He got another chance defensively at 3rd base in the 4th, as the 2nd hitter in the inning. It was a soft grounder and he handled it pretty easily.

On Monday the 11th, I watched 3 more of his at-bats:
In the first one, he saw an outside and low breaking ball, a 95 MPH fastball outside and up hit for a foul. He then took a low pitch in the dirt for ball, before a curveball low in zone was hit for a soft single in the air to center field. He was then out on a double play. He doesn't have plus speed but doesn't seem to be a horrible runner.
In his next at-bat, he took an outside breaking pitch, then one on the inside corner before taking another one to make it 2-1. A low breaking pitch, not the curve, was chased to make it 2-2. Then a curveball in the dirt was chased for a strikeout.
In his next at-bat, he hit a grand slam in an at-bat that kind of capsulized everything Sano is. After swinging through two pitches to fall behind 0-2, the pitcher threw 2 pitches in the dirt that Sano laid off (he checked his swing on the first one). The next pitch was a curve that stayed up a little bit and Sano pulled it well over the fence.

So far this year in 64 games, Sano has a line that you would kind of expect, hitting .240/.349/.511. His ISO at .270 is actually down from what it was last year at rookie ball (an eyepopping .345). Its .278 so far in his minor league career, giving him a 96 power rating according to the Baseball Cube. His contact is at 20, and that is always going to be a problem. He has struck out 27.3 % of the time so far in his minor league career, and if his pitch recognition and plate discipline doesn't get better, that rate will only get higher as he moves up. His line drive rate is low, which you would expect considering his swing. Amazingly, over 50% of the time he makes contact, it is an outfield fly-ball. The guy has power, but he won't hit for much of an average. Whether or not he is able to make contact enough will not only determine what kind of player he turns out to be, but will also decide whether he is even a big leaguer or not.

Tigers sign Octavio Dotel

The Tigers signed Octavio Dotel to a 1 year 3 million dollar contract with an option year of 3.5 million with a $500,000 buyout. I will assume here that they will buy him out, so the contract is 3.5 million. Dotel had a .6 WAR in 2011 (a 5833 WASP with the new contract) and a .7 WAR average over the past 3 years (a 5000 WASP). He had a -4.04 PE and -4.31 Adjusted PE in 2011, so in that sense he pitched like one of the elite relievers in baseball. He had the lowest WHIP he had since 2003, but also had his lowest BABIP since 2005. However, he also had his lowest FIP since 2002, so its not like he was just really lucky. He pitched really really well. His TR also reflected that with a 10.42, along with a SIERA of 2.67. He did throw the lowest amount of pitches since 2007, but with no that could simply be how he was used. On the other hand, 54 innings (his 2011 total) is hardly a large sample size. The HR/9IP rate as well as the groundball rate are things that do concern me. Comerica Park can somewhat mask those rates, and Dotel has shown that those rates aren't that important as he has been dealing with them his whole career. Although this is more than I like to pay for relievers, this deal might not be bad at all. 

Free Agent Watch: Michael Cuddyer

The Twins' Michael Cuddyer had a 3 WAR in 2011, the highest of his career (at age 32), giving him a 1.73 WAR average for the past 3 years, worth 5.2 million. The obvious question is whether or not his career best 2011 at an age where he should be declining is fluky or not. His OBP was around his career number at .346 (.343 for his career), as was OPS (.805-.794). A tie for his best career batting average (.284) makes Cuddyer artificially more expensive in the free agent market. In 2011, he had a 1.23 PPG, and 2.56 PAPP (career 1.21 PPG and 2.69 PAPP). He has proved to be a miserable fielder at -5.3 D-WAR, and 2.01 Range Factor. His ISO and Secondary Averages are not impressive at .180 and .290 respectively for his career (his 2011 numbers were actually slightly lower). His BABIP was .312 (.306 for his career) in 2011, so it is hard to call his 2011 season really lucky, the numbers are real, but perhaps over-hyped. With that said, he has a career Runs Created per game of 5.2 and an Offensive Winning Percentage of .524. He is certainly an above average offensive player. He walks just above average at 9% and is an above average power hitter. The real concerning thing I see is that he hits more groundballs than average, and hits less linedrives than average. However, with such large sample sizes, it is doubtful that it will somehow catch up with him, he seems to be able to be successful with those percentages. Win Probability metrics actually go against WAR and other statistics and say that Cuddyer had as many negative plays as positive plays in 2011, making him an average hitter that doesn't help or hurt the team. I don't really know how trustworthy those statistics are, and as all the other metrics declare he is an above average hitter, I think the anomaly is probably just that. He sees just an above average amount of pitches per plate appearance, and has a PPS of 92.83 for his career. This is just above average, just as Cuddyer is as a hitter, but he is a terrible fielder, and seemingly overvalued. He isn't worth more than 5 million dollars, but it will be interesting to see how much he gets (he made 10.5 in 2011, and even with his 3 WAR his WASP was 3500, over the Halladay Standard).

How Far Away are the Royals?

The Kansas City Royals are an organization that has a lot of promise. Their minor leagues are ranked highest in baseball, and they seem to have a lot of promise. So the real question is: just how far away are they? The Tigers' bullpen and 5th starter had -9.7 PE, and a 10.8 WAR. Tigers' lineup is .127 WAR a game, 10.06 PPG, 25.864 PAPP. Tigers' top 4 starters: Verlander (-3.73 PE, .253 WAR a start), Fister (.16 PE, .26 WAR a start), Scherzer (.44 PE, .073 WAR per start), and Penny (9.87 PE, negative WAR).
The Royals were 24 games behind the Tigers for division title at the end of the 2011 season.  The Royals' lineup looked something like this most of the year  (in no order, and excluding players they traded away): Butler (.015 WAR per game, 1.19 PPG, 2.59 PAPP), Pena (.0041 WAR per game, 3.43 PAPP, .61 PPG), Hosmer (.01 WAR per game, 1.36 PPG, 2.655 PAPP), Getz (.004 WAR a game, .82 PPG, 3.04 PAPP), Moustakas (.006 WAR per game, .71 PPG, 3.09 PAPP), Escobar (.92 PPG, .013 WAR per game, 3.23 PAPP), Gordon (.039 WAR per game, 1.51 PPG, 2.42 PAPP), Cabrera (2.67 PAPP, 1.46 PPG, .019 WAR per game), Francoeur (.018 WAR per game, 1.35 PPG, 2.73 PAPP). This means their lineup has a 35.855 PAPP, about the same (very slightly better than the Tigers), their PPG is 9.93, which is lower than the Tigers, but barely. Their WAR is also slightly better at .1281. The Royals top 4 starters were Hochevar (.055 WAR per start, 2.683 PE), Francis (.045 WAR per start, 4.767 PE), Chen (.104 WAR per start, 2.053 PE), and Paulino (.09 WAR per start, -.328 PE). This is a .294 WAR and 9.175 PE. Detroit's was 6.74 PE, and .593 this year. This means that Kansas City's rotation is anywhere from 33% to 50% worse than the Tigers. Even though the lineup is good enough to compete with the Tigers, with this much problems in the rotation, they stand no chance. The Royals' 5th starter and bullpen looks like: Duffy (.5 WAR, 2.724 PE), Soria (.8 WAR, -1.113 PE), Crow (2.1 WAR, -2.883 PE), Collins (1.1 WAR, -.817 PE), Wood (-.303 PE, .9 WAR), Coleman (1.6 WAR, -3.587 PE), Holland (2.6 WAR, -6.617 PE), and O'Sullivan (9.413 PE, -1.6 WAR). This means their bullpen had a -3.183 PE, and a WAR of 8. This bullpen is much better if you take O'Sullivan out, as he is clearly an outlier, however, he was part of this bullpen, so you have to count it. The Tigers have a better bullpen with O'Sullivan in there for Kansas City, but if you take him out, Kansas City actually has the better bullpen. So what is standing in the way between Kansas City and a division crown? Starting pitching. They need lots of it, but if they can find some (they have the lowest payroll in baseball, so they will have to do it through prospects), they stand a chance.

A bright spot in the dark White season

It has been a really frustrating season for the White Sox. They have the 5th highest payroll in baseball at about a 130 million dollar payroll (at 76 wins, $1,710,526 a win, and a WASP of 5000). Big money failures like Adam Dunn (who is putting up a historically bad season) and Alexis Rios have fueled the failure. However, as in most cases, there are some shining lights. Recently, the biggest has been Alejandro De Aza. At the end of the 09 season, the White Sox claimed De Aza off waivers from the Marlins. His salary for this year has not been released (and it was 390,000 in 09) and he is arbitration eligible at the end of the year, so it is safe to say he is making about $400,000 this year. Despite being called up late and only playing in 47 games, he has been very valuable, with a 1.9 WAR and playing every outfield position. This gives him a great WASP of 210.5. His OOP is a nice 419 (not too far behind Cameron Maybin), and a PPG of 1.34 (better than both Cameron Maybin and Starlin Castro). He is another guy who strikes out a lot (about 1/5th of his at-bats, he also walks 8% of the time, a 2 strikeouts to 1 walk ratio is a nice ratio), but is still pretty productive, because when he hits the ball, magic happens (a .400 Batting average on balls put in play). It is very possible that the White Sox will use De Aza to replace Juan Pierre or Alexis Rios as they attempt to rebuild this team.