Masahiko Morino Scouting Report

Masahiko Morino is an infielder for the Chunichi Dragons that has an international free agent option, which would allow him to play in the Majors if he and a MLB team are interested.

Previously has said he has no interest in playing the Majors, but since then, the Dragons have forced him to play all around the diamond, giving his normal 3rd base position to Hector Luna and blocking 1st base with Matt Clark. To be fair, Luna outhit Morino, and Morino's 2012 was a down year, with a 104 OPS +. At age 35 now, the Dragons could have been seeing a decline. However, Morino had a bounce back year in 2013, with a 120 OPS +, which is generally about the level you start looking at NPB bats as possible MLB prospects (for instance, Andruw Jones had a 119 OPS +, and Casey McGehee had a 125 OPS + in their first year in Japan). The Dragons also actively had a meeting with Morino, asking him to come back, which suggests that they do fear that he might leave (though whether domestically or internationally is not clear). Before the ball change of 2011, Morino was one of the best hitters in the Central League statistically, in the same range as Shinnosuke Abe, Norichika Aoki, and Alex Ramirez, better than Craig Brazell, Tony Blanco, and Matt Murton. Morino declined more than league normal when the ball changed in 2011-2012, but when offense came back a little bit in 2013, he improved more than average. In 2013, he had a 111 BA+/114 OBP +/125 SLG+, so maybe one of the reasons he seemed to be a slave to the ball changes was because he relies on power more than average or walks (though he walks more than league average). With that said, Morino really cut down on his strikeout rate in 2013, knocking it down to 13 % from his career 14.86 %. Whether this is a fluke or not remains to be seen, but it shows that he isn't losing bat speed or becoming easier to strikeout.

For the most part, it seems that Morino is an other way hitter, or at the very least, can go the other way on outside pitches very easily. 

This makes his power so surprising, as he has a pretty level swing without the classic pull or uppercut nature that many power hitters have:

This is probably a big reason that he doesn't have big strikeout numbers. It is tough to throw the ball away from him. With that swing, you have to come inside, and it isn't uppercutty enough to suggest that he struggles with high pitches. He isn't a large player (5-11 187, much smaller than either Clark or Luna), so the power is even more surprising, and yet perhaps concerning for a MLB team. His game is power, but from a scouting perspective, it is a little tough to see where it comes from.

Morino is making the equivalent of 1.6 million dollars, enough that a non guaranteed deal would probably not be good enough for him (especially since he doesn't appear to the type that really wants to come to the Majors), but he could be a cheaper alternative to Casey McGehee, who wants to come back to the Majors. Morino hasn't played shortstop in over a decade so I think that is out of the question, but he can play a few different corner positions, which can be useful as a bench bat, especially as a pinch hitter in the National League. He's a left-handed batter has large platoon splits, considerably better in both average and power against right-handers, which I think could make it useful off the bench. He obviously isn't an every day player, which defense and baserunning shortcomings already suggested anyway, but the ability to hit right-handed pitching, if you believe the power is legitimate is something that could play very well off an MLB bench. Whether or not MLB teams will show interest in him, and he will show interest back, is a completely different question.

A Brief Look at the Swings of Notable KBO hitters

In this post, I will do quick breakdowns of a few hitters swings, with GIFs for visual aids, in the Korea Baseball Organization. The collection of hitters is somewhat random, a combination of some of the game's best hitters, along with a few hitters that were included by suggestion. I'll list a short note on why each hitter is notable, but this post isn't statistical in nature. For most hitters, I showed them hitting the ball each direction to take a look at how they change their swings when they go the other way or when they pull the ball.

Choi Jeong: 2013 KBO OPS leader so far

Pulled Single:

Choi is a pull hitter, and we see a glimpse of that here as he pulls a hard fastball on the outside part of the plate. Of course, this pull approach leads to this:

Pulled homer:

His swing actually gets a little long, even on this low and in pitch, so him getting beat inside with premier velocity may be a problem with his swing.

Opposite field home run:

He appears to be an incredible low ball hitter with his uppercut swing path. The best bet to pitching against him is probably to try to get him up and in with good fastballs.

Park Byung-ho: Just .001 OPS points down from Choi for the league lead, with a better strikeout to walk rate.

 Opposite field homer:

Based on video I've seen, it appears that Park is more of an opposite field hitter, especially when compared to Choi. He has an uppercut as well, though I don't think it is quite as drastic as Choi's.

Center field homer:

He seems to adjust well and not have too violent of a swing. 

Pulled:

 He seems to handle inside pitches really well.

Kim Tae-kyun: KBO leader in Batting RAA in 2012

Pulled homer:

That looks like a really smooth swing with good bat speed, just letting his natural strength take over by getting to the ball easily and not getting too long or violent.

Homer to center:

He looks like a low ball hitter thanks to his slight shoulder lean forward and his uppercut swing path. 

Hit to opposite field:

That is pretty incredible strength to be able to fight off a ball that far.

Choi Hyung-woo: 3rd in OPS in the KBO

Pulled homer:

While he clearly swings hard and is looking to pull an outside pitch here, his swing path stays smooth on a high breaking ball.

Centerfield:

It is easy to see an adjustment here, as he uppercuts on the low pitch to get under it. He also shows good reach to get to the ball without coming out of his stance. I would say he has some pretty long arms, not to mention good natural strength. 

Side view:

He has a very slight leg kick, but other than that, his feet are really good, giving him a strong base. It actually looks like he got jammed a little bit in this swing, with it getting a little too long. 

Park Suk-Min: 4th in KBO OPS

Pull homer on low pitch:

While it certainly looks sloppy mechanically, that is good reach and mid pitch adjustment to make contact and clearly he is very strong. 

Homer to center:

Unlike some of the hitters above, he is clearly coming out of his shoes to hit the ball, probably making him susceptible to being fooled easier, but as the first GIF shows, he can make contact on bad pitches.

Lee Byung-Hyu: Batting average of .360, striking out just 11 % of the time

He leans out of the box, but doesn't quite get the extreme running start that may make it hard for him to hit outside pitches. He stays in enough to make contact and spray the ball, but he is robbing himself of the most of the power he does have (which judging by his frame compared to the power hitters above, isn't all that much). 

View from above and behind:

That is good extension and good hand eye coordination.

Lee Seung-Yeop: Former NPB hitter, best days are clearly behind him, but he hit 56 homers in the KBO in 2003

Pulled:

He does have more of the NPB swing, coming out of the box a bit, though he seems to be pretty uppercut heavy and he is swing is a little long.

Other way:

This doesn't look like a power swing, and so far this year, it hasn't been. 

Kim Hyun-Soo: One of the bigger players in the KBO, though Kim is more of an average + walks hitter than a power hitter.

Pull Homer:

 Good control of his body, along with a quick bat allows him to adjust to the ball rather quickly. He uses a leg kick and sweep for timing, but at least in the above GIF, it doesn't hurt his chances of getting to the low and inside pitch.

Opposite Field:

 This seems to be a little bit more of a natural swing for him, as it looks like he wants to extend his arms. He seems to be pretty athletic at the plate considering his size, because he adjusts very quickly.

Lee Ho-jun: Veteran KBO player with over 260 career homers, currently leading the NC Dinos in OPS.

Hit up the middle:

Swing seems a little long, but he clearly has good plate coverage and a relatively flat swing path. 

From the side:

That is a big leg kick so timing is very important for him, but this side view shows how clean the bat path is.

Lee Dae-hyung: Poor hitter, known for his funky mechanics that have him running out of the box (though he stays back on the GIF below) and looking away from where the ball hits his bat:

Examining Domonic Brown's 2013

Domonic Brown was one of the best prospects in baseball, in fact, according to Baseball America, he was the 4th best prospect in baseball in 2011, where he would split the year between AAA and the Majors (he debuted in 2010). It was the 3rd straight year that Baseball America considered him one of the top 50 prospects in baseball (starting in 2009, after he spent 2008 in A-ball). However, from 2010-2012 Brown had an 89 OPS+ in the big leagues in 492 plate appearances with a .269 BABIP. Along with defense that rated poorly, Brown looked like he was a high profile bust. However, so far this year, he has a 130 OPS + with a .281 BABIP in 331 plate appearances (all numbers are before Wednesday, where Brown hit another homer, this time on Jason Grilli).

The OBP actually isn't much different (.315 to .320), so we wouldn't expect to see a different swing map:

The difference for Brown is power, and one of the reasons may be that he is swinging at pitches that are higher in the zone, meaning (even though the average velocity is a little lower) he is swinging at less pitches low in the zone.

His whiffs are no different in location so far this year (though they are on slightly slower pitches so far this year), but his contact shows a lot of the changes we have saw with the average swing.

 His plate coverage seems to be a little better, and he is swinging at and having more success on higher pitches. 


When looking at hot starts or good stretches, even if they are over a long period of time and don't appear to be BABIP related, we need to get context when it comes to average pitch location and release points

So really on average he is seeing pitches in the same location, but he is actually seeing slightly slower pitches this year. He is also seeing more pitchers that are either closer to the center of the rubber or left-handed, which we would expect to make him worse. We would also expect slower pitches to make him worse as well since his contact is coming on harder pitches than his whiffs, but apparently it isn't. It is not that he is swinging at less pitches out of the zone or less pitches in general, he is actually swinging at more pitches both in and out of the zone. This explains the real lack of OBP difference, but what about the raw bat speed or ability to hit elite pitches?

On pitches over 95 MPH +:

2013: 6.05 %, 8 swinging strikes, 13 contact plays
Pre-2013: 4.9 %, 13 swinging strikes, 19 contact plays

So he is seeing more high velocity pitches, but his ratio is a little worse so far this year. It doesn't seem that he has all the sudden gained any kind of talent. The data still seems to support the idea that he is directing his swings on pitches that are more up in the zone, an approach change (since he isn't being pitched higher on average).

Since the change has been in power (his average batted ball distance is about 10 feet higher), it is I think important to look at where he is hitting the ball. To do this, here are all the pitches Brown has made contact with (in fair territory) in 2013 in the strike zone, labelled with where the ball went:

Not only does the 2013 graph show that he doesn't like or doesn't make contact with hardly any low pitches, he is also an extreme pull hitter. He is pulling a lot of pitches that are on the outside part of the zone. Here are the balls Brown made contact with before the 2013 season:

This year overall, he is pulling more balls, using the middle of the field the same amount, but going the other way less than he was before 2013. The chart shows that Brown was pulling everything on the inside part of the plate before 2013 as well, and was still pulling a lot of the balls on the outside of the plate. Just looking at the charts, I don't think you can really see a big difference of any kind.

This means that we have, from what I can see, two choices. 1. Brown's half of season is fluky, and his real talent level is closer to his pre-2013 numbers rather than the future star many prospect evaluators had him labelled as. 2. Brown's approach change to just swing at higher pitches on average (or, to just swing at more higher pitches since he doesn't have an improved swing rate) have caused him to bring out his natural strength. I don't think the data gives us much wiggle room beyond the two choices. Perhaps it could be a mixture of the two, as his 24.4 HR/FB % probably isn't real, though he is hitting less grounders (which I think supports option 2), and he will regress some, but the slight approach change has helped him hit for more power.

The Decline of Ryan Howard

Ryan Howard has declined from one of the game's best power hitters into what has basically become, especially when one considers the contract, a laughingstock. His walk and home run rates have dropped significantly and because of his defensive, baserunning, and positional values, has become basically a "replacement" level player that is playing every day. I wanted to see if we could visualize Howard's decline beyond just the numbers, looking at average locations in Pitch F/X data, and spray charts (the latter courtesy of Brooks Baseball). So I will break down Howard by year, starting with 2008 as that is the first year to have complete Pitch F/X data (the charts are often best viewed by clicking on them).

2008: 28 years old, 14 Rbat, .292 ISO, 15.6 Whiff %:

Pitchers were pitching away from him, and it was the slowest and lowest pitches he was swinging and missing at, nothing real unusual for a power hitter.

A lot of "hard" pitches hit to the outfield the other way, pulling a lot of breaking and offspeed stuff (with some hard stuff as well).

2009: 29 years old, 33 Rbat, .292 ISO, 15.7 Whiff %

The whiffs are even slower and lower, with the runs being higher in the zone, but a little slower. This is the best year we are looking at, at least by Rbat.

Other than just a few balls just hit much further, the home run chart seems the same. It seems that there were less fastballs taken the other way, with more breaking pitches hit that way.

2010: 30 years old, 19 Rbat, .229 ISO, 14.6 whiff %

There were less whiffs, but they are basically the same in velocity and location. Even though his power was lower, he was more of a high ball hitter that season.

Almost no infield outs the other way, but much less pulled balls to the outfield. His average contact were on harder pitches, which may be why. He may have just had less of a chance to pull them. There are basically no fastballs pulled to the outfield.

2011: 31 years old, 17 Rbat, .235 ISO, 14.5 whiff %

For the second straight year, he traded some power for less whiffs and had another good season. The whiffs this season were a little more, and a little harder. It still broke down where the harder pitchers were the ones he hit and more success on while the slower ones were the ones he missed.

It seems he pulled the ball a little better than he did in 2010. A pretty balanced outfield spray chart

2012: 32 years old, -6 Rbat, .204 ISO, 15.2 whiff %

Whether it was the ankle, age, or something else, this is when Howard really regressed. 2008-2011 Howard was roughly the same hitter in value, even though he did it differently in 2010-2011 than he did in 2008-2009. His whiffs were harder this year again, though everything was harder as there were just more pitchers that threw harder, and this time they were further away. The no out plays were the closest to the center of the plate on average than anything we had seen so far. However, the runs returned to being the highest, just like in 2008-2009, though everything shifted down. He missed more low pitches, and hit less high pitches.

You have to adjust for there being less batted balls just because he played in less games, and when you do that, it is hard to really see a real difference in where he was hitting the ball on average.

2013: 33 years old, 3 Rbat, .201 ISO, 16.5 whiff %

Thanks to a BABIP spike, Howard is an above average hitter again, but his power and ability to make contact is even worse (meaning he will probably regress and may be even worse than in 2012). He is back to being a high ball hitter, but pitchers are less scared to come inside than ever before, as his average pitch seen is closer to the center of the plate than ever. His regression on pitches on the inside part of the plate is also showed by the whiffs being closer to the center of the plate than ever before.

 

He hasn't been hitting really any balls between the right-fielder and center-fielder, and most of his pulled balls are not hard pitches. Most of those are hit the other way (along with breaking pitches, which makes sense, as most breaking pitches are thrown to the glove side of the plate by pitchers that have the platoon advantage, meaning they would be on the outside to Howard or any hitter). 

The problem isn't up and in, as Howard still has power up there, hitting a couple of homers on up and in pitches in the zone (he only had 2 in that zone, zone 3 according to Baseball Savant, in 2008). The problem is low and in (zone 9). He has 19 swinging strikes on pitches low and in so far in 2013. In 2008, he had 15 in that zone in a much bigger sample size.

Since 2008, he has 97 whiffs on pitches 95 MPH or over (16.1%). 26 of them have come in 2012 or 2013, even though his 2012 and 2013 seasons represent just 18.3 % of pitches seen since 2008 for Howard. There has been a clear bat speed regression for Howard, and this season, it is letting pitchers come more inside.

Jedd Gyorko Pitch F/X Scouting Report

Jedd Gyorko made the San Diego Padres out of spring training as a bat first infielder. My odds system had him as the 11th best hitting prospect in AA or AAA last year, just behind Oscar Taveras (he was still in the top 70 after considering defense and baserunning). So far, he hasn't disappointed, with decent peripherals and good power numbers through a little more than a month and a half. In this post, I will look at what the pitch data says about him and whether we can expect continued success.

First, let's see where pitchers are throwing to him on average along with where he is having success:

As you can see, the average pitch is low and on the outside part of the plate, a little lower is where his average whiff is. There isn't much of a difference between his hits and outs other than the hits are very slightly closer to the center. The runs scored (homers and RBI plays) at-bats are on the inside part of the plate. So it really isn't height that drives his power, like many hitters, it is balls on the inside part of the plate. So bat speed is probably not an issue for him, but let's look at the kind of pitches he is seeing:

He has seen a pretty good balance of pitches, and he has seen a good variety of pitchers as well:

While his strikeout rate is about league average, his whiff percentage is above league average (suggesting that some kind of correction could be coming). Here are the pitches he has whiffed on:

A pretty diverse mix here, some average fastballs, some plus fastballs, a lot of what looks like sliders or hard curves, a good amount of changeups, and some lefty high spin slow curves. Here are those pitchers' release points:

He hasn't swung and missed at any extreme righties, but has whiffed at a surprising amount of left-handed pitchers, especially the far out ones (perhaps because they are throwing so much off-speed and breaking pitches). He hasn't whiffed at any of the over the top pitchers or pitchers that are very close to the center of the rubber. How about on contact? Rather than distinguishing hits and outs (or even runs), I assumed they were the same for our purposes. Here are the pitches he has hit:

The big difference in this is the lack of slow curves hit, and the amount of fastballs, both plus and average is much more when it comes to contact than whiffs. When you look at his contact release points, he has made contact on a good amount of far out righties, some of the over the top pitchers, but not a ton of lefties:

Obviously looking at splits at this point of the season isn't very helpful, but he has been a reverse splits guy by strikeouts so far (though power and BABIP is on the side of Gyorko against lefties). It may be helpful to look at how he is being pitched by lefties:

Similar to his overall strike zone, he is pitched low and outside, has success on inside pitches, and misses a lot of pitches low. That location is where you would expect curveballs to be, and as we saw above, he struggled with the high-spin left-handed curve. Luckily for Gyorko, not many pitchers in the majors throw a real slow curve, so his strikeout rate against lefties might be a little inflated and due to regress some.

Overall, Gyorko has shown that he has real MLB hitting abilities, handling the inside ball and good fastballs really well. Adjusting to the outside and low breaking ball has been a little bit of a struggle so far, and something he will need to improve on if he is going to be a consistent hitter in the big leagues.