Masahiko Morino Scouting Report

Masahiko Morino is an infielder for the Chunichi Dragons that has an international free agent option, which would allow him to play in the Majors if he and a MLB team are interested.

Previously has said he has no interest in playing the Majors, but since then, the Dragons have forced him to play all around the diamond, giving his normal 3rd base position to Hector Luna and blocking 1st base with Matt Clark. To be fair, Luna outhit Morino, and Morino's 2012 was a down year, with a 104 OPS +. At age 35 now, the Dragons could have been seeing a decline. However, Morino had a bounce back year in 2013, with a 120 OPS +, which is generally about the level you start looking at NPB bats as possible MLB prospects (for instance, Andruw Jones had a 119 OPS +, and Casey McGehee had a 125 OPS + in their first year in Japan). The Dragons also actively had a meeting with Morino, asking him to come back, which suggests that they do fear that he might leave (though whether domestically or internationally is not clear). Before the ball change of 2011, Morino was one of the best hitters in the Central League statistically, in the same range as Shinnosuke Abe, Norichika Aoki, and Alex Ramirez, better than Craig Brazell, Tony Blanco, and Matt Murton. Morino declined more than league normal when the ball changed in 2011-2012, but when offense came back a little bit in 2013, he improved more than average. In 2013, he had a 111 BA+/114 OBP +/125 SLG+, so maybe one of the reasons he seemed to be a slave to the ball changes was because he relies on power more than average or walks (though he walks more than league average). With that said, Morino really cut down on his strikeout rate in 2013, knocking it down to 13 % from his career 14.86 %. Whether this is a fluke or not remains to be seen, but it shows that he isn't losing bat speed or becoming easier to strikeout.

For the most part, it seems that Morino is an other way hitter, or at the very least, can go the other way on outside pitches very easily. 

This makes his power so surprising, as he has a pretty level swing without the classic pull or uppercut nature that many power hitters have:

This is probably a big reason that he doesn't have big strikeout numbers. It is tough to throw the ball away from him. With that swing, you have to come inside, and it isn't uppercutty enough to suggest that he struggles with high pitches. He isn't a large player (5-11 187, much smaller than either Clark or Luna), so the power is even more surprising, and yet perhaps concerning for a MLB team. His game is power, but from a scouting perspective, it is a little tough to see where it comes from.

Morino is making the equivalent of 1.6 million dollars, enough that a non guaranteed deal would probably not be good enough for him (especially since he doesn't appear to the type that really wants to come to the Majors), but he could be a cheaper alternative to Casey McGehee, who wants to come back to the Majors. Morino hasn't played shortstop in over a decade so I think that is out of the question, but he can play a few different corner positions, which can be useful as a bench bat, especially as a pinch hitter in the National League. He's a left-handed batter has large platoon splits, considerably better in both average and power against right-handers, which I think could make it useful off the bench. He obviously isn't an every day player, which defense and baserunning shortcomings already suggested anyway, but the ability to hit right-handed pitching, if you believe the power is legitimate is something that could play very well off an MLB bench. Whether or not MLB teams will show interest in him, and he will show interest back, is a completely different question.

A Brief Look at the Swings of Notable KBO hitters

In this post, I will do quick breakdowns of a few hitters swings, with GIFs for visual aids, in the Korea Baseball Organization. The collection of hitters is somewhat random, a combination of some of the game's best hitters, along with a few hitters that were included by suggestion. I'll list a short note on why each hitter is notable, but this post isn't statistical in nature. For most hitters, I showed them hitting the ball each direction to take a look at how they change their swings when they go the other way or when they pull the ball.

Choi Jeong: 2013 KBO OPS leader so far

Pulled Single:

Choi is a pull hitter, and we see a glimpse of that here as he pulls a hard fastball on the outside part of the plate. Of course, this pull approach leads to this:

Pulled homer:

His swing actually gets a little long, even on this low and in pitch, so him getting beat inside with premier velocity may be a problem with his swing.

Opposite field home run:

He appears to be an incredible low ball hitter with his uppercut swing path. The best bet to pitching against him is probably to try to get him up and in with good fastballs.

Park Byung-ho: Just .001 OPS points down from Choi for the league lead, with a better strikeout to walk rate.

 Opposite field homer:

Based on video I've seen, it appears that Park is more of an opposite field hitter, especially when compared to Choi. He has an uppercut as well, though I don't think it is quite as drastic as Choi's.

Center field homer:

He seems to adjust well and not have too violent of a swing. 

Pulled:

 He seems to handle inside pitches really well.

Kim Tae-kyun: KBO leader in Batting RAA in 2012

Pulled homer:

That looks like a really smooth swing with good bat speed, just letting his natural strength take over by getting to the ball easily and not getting too long or violent.

Homer to center:

He looks like a low ball hitter thanks to his slight shoulder lean forward and his uppercut swing path. 

Hit to opposite field:

That is pretty incredible strength to be able to fight off a ball that far.

Choi Hyung-woo: 3rd in OPS in the KBO

Pulled homer:

While he clearly swings hard and is looking to pull an outside pitch here, his swing path stays smooth on a high breaking ball.

Centerfield:

It is easy to see an adjustment here, as he uppercuts on the low pitch to get under it. He also shows good reach to get to the ball without coming out of his stance. I would say he has some pretty long arms, not to mention good natural strength. 

Side view:

He has a very slight leg kick, but other than that, his feet are really good, giving him a strong base. It actually looks like he got jammed a little bit in this swing, with it getting a little too long. 

Park Suk-Min: 4th in KBO OPS

Pull homer on low pitch:

While it certainly looks sloppy mechanically, that is good reach and mid pitch adjustment to make contact and clearly he is very strong. 

Homer to center:

Unlike some of the hitters above, he is clearly coming out of his shoes to hit the ball, probably making him susceptible to being fooled easier, but as the first GIF shows, he can make contact on bad pitches.

Lee Byung-Hyu: Batting average of .360, striking out just 11 % of the time

He leans out of the box, but doesn't quite get the extreme running start that may make it hard for him to hit outside pitches. He stays in enough to make contact and spray the ball, but he is robbing himself of the most of the power he does have (which judging by his frame compared to the power hitters above, isn't all that much). 

View from above and behind:

That is good extension and good hand eye coordination.

Lee Seung-Yeop: Former NPB hitter, best days are clearly behind him, but he hit 56 homers in the KBO in 2003

Pulled:

He does have more of the NPB swing, coming out of the box a bit, though he seems to be pretty uppercut heavy and he is swing is a little long.

Other way:

This doesn't look like a power swing, and so far this year, it hasn't been. 

Kim Hyun-Soo: One of the bigger players in the KBO, though Kim is more of an average + walks hitter than a power hitter.

Pull Homer:

 Good control of his body, along with a quick bat allows him to adjust to the ball rather quickly. He uses a leg kick and sweep for timing, but at least in the above GIF, it doesn't hurt his chances of getting to the low and inside pitch.

Opposite Field:

 This seems to be a little bit more of a natural swing for him, as it looks like he wants to extend his arms. He seems to be pretty athletic at the plate considering his size, because he adjusts very quickly.

Lee Ho-jun: Veteran KBO player with over 260 career homers, currently leading the NC Dinos in OPS.

Hit up the middle:

Swing seems a little long, but he clearly has good plate coverage and a relatively flat swing path. 

From the side:

That is a big leg kick so timing is very important for him, but this side view shows how clean the bat path is.

Lee Dae-hyung: Poor hitter, known for his funky mechanics that have him running out of the box (though he stays back on the GIF below) and looking away from where the ball hits his bat:

Examining Domonic Brown's 2013

Domonic Brown was one of the best prospects in baseball, in fact, according to Baseball America, he was the 4th best prospect in baseball in 2011, where he would split the year between AAA and the Majors (he debuted in 2010). It was the 3rd straight year that Baseball America considered him one of the top 50 prospects in baseball (starting in 2009, after he spent 2008 in A-ball). However, from 2010-2012 Brown had an 89 OPS+ in the big leagues in 492 plate appearances with a .269 BABIP. Along with defense that rated poorly, Brown looked like he was a high profile bust. However, so far this year, he has a 130 OPS + with a .281 BABIP in 331 plate appearances (all numbers are before Wednesday, where Brown hit another homer, this time on Jason Grilli).

The OBP actually isn't much different (.315 to .320), so we wouldn't expect to see a different swing map:

The difference for Brown is power, and one of the reasons may be that he is swinging at pitches that are higher in the zone, meaning (even though the average velocity is a little lower) he is swinging at less pitches low in the zone.

His whiffs are no different in location so far this year (though they are on slightly slower pitches so far this year), but his contact shows a lot of the changes we have saw with the average swing.

 His plate coverage seems to be a little better, and he is swinging at and having more success on higher pitches. 


When looking at hot starts or good stretches, even if they are over a long period of time and don't appear to be BABIP related, we need to get context when it comes to average pitch location and release points

So really on average he is seeing pitches in the same location, but he is actually seeing slightly slower pitches this year. He is also seeing more pitchers that are either closer to the center of the rubber or left-handed, which we would expect to make him worse. We would also expect slower pitches to make him worse as well since his contact is coming on harder pitches than his whiffs, but apparently it isn't. It is not that he is swinging at less pitches out of the zone or less pitches in general, he is actually swinging at more pitches both in and out of the zone. This explains the real lack of OBP difference, but what about the raw bat speed or ability to hit elite pitches?

On pitches over 95 MPH +:

2013: 6.05 %, 8 swinging strikes, 13 contact plays
Pre-2013: 4.9 %, 13 swinging strikes, 19 contact plays

So he is seeing more high velocity pitches, but his ratio is a little worse so far this year. It doesn't seem that he has all the sudden gained any kind of talent. The data still seems to support the idea that he is directing his swings on pitches that are more up in the zone, an approach change (since he isn't being pitched higher on average).

Since the change has been in power (his average batted ball distance is about 10 feet higher), it is I think important to look at where he is hitting the ball. To do this, here are all the pitches Brown has made contact with (in fair territory) in 2013 in the strike zone, labelled with where the ball went:

Not only does the 2013 graph show that he doesn't like or doesn't make contact with hardly any low pitches, he is also an extreme pull hitter. He is pulling a lot of pitches that are on the outside part of the zone. Here are the balls Brown made contact with before the 2013 season:

This year overall, he is pulling more balls, using the middle of the field the same amount, but going the other way less than he was before 2013. The chart shows that Brown was pulling everything on the inside part of the plate before 2013 as well, and was still pulling a lot of the balls on the outside of the plate. Just looking at the charts, I don't think you can really see a big difference of any kind.

This means that we have, from what I can see, two choices. 1. Brown's half of season is fluky, and his real talent level is closer to his pre-2013 numbers rather than the future star many prospect evaluators had him labelled as. 2. Brown's approach change to just swing at higher pitches on average (or, to just swing at more higher pitches since he doesn't have an improved swing rate) have caused him to bring out his natural strength. I don't think the data gives us much wiggle room beyond the two choices. Perhaps it could be a mixture of the two, as his 24.4 HR/FB % probably isn't real, though he is hitting less grounders (which I think supports option 2), and he will regress some, but the slight approach change has helped him hit for more power.

Yem Prades Scouting Report

Yem Prades is a 24 year old Cuban defector who rated as the 13th best AA or AAA player analytic rankings. With that said, it is hard to get excited about a non shortstop who had a sub .700 OPS in a hitter friendly (park and league) Texas League. He also isn't a guy that was not highly touted out of Cuba nor a celebrated prospect of any kind. From what I can see, he had just 66 at-bats in Cuba's professional league.

The odds have him at 37.2 percent because of the lack of plate appearances (because he has only been in the minors for 2 seasons). If we assumed he had 2000 plate appearances like most 24 year olds might (at least out of high school), his odds drop to 32.8 %, which is a very generic minor league outfielder/hitter. The K/BB is especially concerning, as not only is he striking out, he isn't walking. His approach is obviously one that involves swinging at just about everything, and he obviously doesn't have the contact tool (and doesn't seem to have a lot of power) to go with that approach. He doesn't really have platoon splits, and as his numbers would suggest, he hits a reasonably high amount of grounders (44.8%). He keeps his hands very high with a pretty open stance. When he swings, he doesn't have a fluid motion (there just seem to be a lot of moving parts) and it seems that his bat isn't very quick or, at the very least, he just has a long swing. It looks like he has a lot of problems on inside pitches because of the combination of long swing and moving parts. This could be why he both swings at almost anything and swings and misses so much. He has to get started early, so he has to make his decision quicker than most hitters, and the moving parts don't allow him to make as much contact as he should. He gets somewhat uppercut happy, which causes a lot of infield pop ups for him. I really think his swing needs to be totally destroyed and rebuild, which is a difficult thing considering he is already 24. You just don't see that happening, but I can't see him having any success in the Majors offensively like this.

He definitely seems like the really athletic centerfielders that may or may not hit (Jarrod Dyson and Derrick Robinson are great examples) that the Royals always seem to have. He lead off for the Royals' AA club all year in 2012, but he doesn’t have the plate discipline to continue in that role. If he makes the Majors and starts, it will most likely be in an athletic centerfield number 9 hitter role that will provide basically no offensive value.

Obviously FRAA and Speed Score are big fans of Prades, but he has stolen just 25 bases over the last two years with 14 caught stealings. Range factor also suggests that he was slightly below average defensively in center. In watching him, I have some questions about both his arm and his jumps/reads. However, you do see the athleticism, and it is clear he can cover some serious ground.

At this point, it is hard to see Prades being much of an impact in the big leagues, if he makes it at all. He has good run and defense, but I don't know if he is elite, and the lack of offensive skills really make it hard for me to see him being more than a 5th outfielder at best. Considering how hard it has been for a guy like Darren Ford to make it to and stay in the Majors, it is hard to see Prades have a real MLB career (I like Ford better for what is worth, but obviously Prades is younger).

Top NPB Hitting Prospects

We have looked at the NPB Pitching Prospects here, so now it is time to look at the NPB  hitting prospects. I used 50 games in the Ni-Gun as a minimum, but other than that, I used similar criteria as the pitchers. They have to be 25 years or younger, and played less than 100 games in the Ichi-gun (or not appeared in 3 different seasons).

For defense and position, I used the position the player played the most in 2012 and obviously only compared positions when using range factor (the official NPB site splits the positions nicely). I couldn't find a positional scarcity model that I liked (and was easy to use for these purposes), so I used an extremely lazy one. I used Baseball Reference's 2012 MLB batting splits and sorted the positions by OPS. It is the MLB obviously, but I think the general rule applies across baseball. 1st Base is the least valuable position (6 in rankings), while shortstop is the most valuable (1st in rankings). I used these rankings to go into the total rankings (and of course averaged out in the average ranking). I didn't know what to do with catchers' defense, especially since the NPB didn't keep track of CS% data for the Ni-Gun, so I just used Range Factor. I couldn't differentiate between CF and corner outfield, so I didn't when it came to positional value (outfield ranks right behind 1B in our crude positional scarcity formula), but it should separate correctly when looking at range factor.

So overall, this is really crude, especially since it weights OPS + more than anything else and there are major defensive component problems, especially with outfielders (who get penalized in the rankings because there are so many of them). I don't trust it as much as the pitcher rankings, but here it is nonetheless: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B_DUd_c_mKWrWWY3TjlBSGZpR1U/edit


The Top 5 Position Player Prospects:

1. Tetsuro Nishida

It seems that what the Golden Eagles lack in pitching prospects, they make up for in hitting prospects. Nishida is the older of the two shortstops, but he also played much better defensively and hit slightly better in 2012. He shows good bat control and an approach that seems to use the whole field. I like his size and his swing is good as well.

1. Daisuke Nakai

For a 2nd baseman, Nakai has a really big looking frame. This didn't stop him from getting to a lot of balls defensively. At the plate, he also doesn't look like a 2nd baseman either, with a large uppercut swing. It looks there is power there, but one wonders about the approach.

3. Takumi Miyoshi

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_v2iCjGlo4w

If defensive data is any indication, Miyoshi should probably not be a shortstop. However, with Nishida most likely ready to make NPB impact before Nishida, this isn't a big deal. He looks smaller than Nishida, so you wonder where the power is going to come from in the future, and he seems like a ground-ball hitter, but having Miyoshi is good insurance for the Eagles.

4. Itaru Hashimoto

Despite his good hitting statistics, Hashimoto appears to be a slash and dash type player. As the only outfielder on the top 5, he probably needs to be a centerfielder to have premium value, but he had a good range factor, suggesting he is good defensively and may stick there.

4. Tu-Hsuan Lee

A corner player, he is a rare right-hander with an open stance. The body screams 1st basemen, and the defensive data suggests that he doesn't have great range at 3rd base. This just means he will really have to hit, and there may be a few causes for concern. He walked just under 10% of the time, and struck out 18.2 %, not bad, but not really excellent. He definitely comes with some risks, especially considering his swing mechanics, but power can be hard to find in Japan at times, and Lee seems to have some of that.

Rakuten Golden Eagles Ni-Gun Prospects

I wanted to play with Ni-Gun (NPB minor leagues) numbers some more and include hitters this time instead of doing just individual pitching scouting reports. So here, I looked at the Rakuten Golden Eagles' Ni-Gun team and tried to created a sortable spreadsheet of the "prospects" statistically. Because, just like AAA in the MLB, the Ni-Gun is full of both veterans and prospects, I included the current age of each player (but included the veterans). 

For hitters, league average OPS (I didn't adjust for parks, because who knows) in the Western League was about .646 (.309 OBP and .337 SLG, so much like the NPB, offense is way down). To create an OPS +, I just subtracted the OPS minus the league average (.642) and then divided that answer by .642. Then I added 1 to that number and multiplied that number by 100. For example: 

.881-.642= .239. .239 divided by .642= .372274 + 1= 1.372274 x 100= ~137

It is excruciatingly simple, but it works for what we are doing. For defense, the NPB (only on the Japanese version of the site for some reason) does supply assists and putouts for the Ni-Gun teams, so at least we are able to calculate RF/G, and since the site provides it per position, we are able to do it more accurately than for college players. If the player played the minimum amount of games (I think I used 30 games as the minimum for including players) at 2 different positions, I included them twice on the spreadsheet. 

I didn't include catchers because range factor is misleading and extremely unhelpful for catchers. On the spreadsheet, I sorted them by age and then used OPS + for a tiebreaker. 

For Pitchers, I used 30 innings as the minimum. Western League Averages for strikeouts and walks were: 7.1 BB % and 16.4 K % in 2012. In the spreadsheet, I used kwERA (which is K-BB/PA (or BF) x 12 - 5.4). For reference, league average was 4.29. I also used FIP, which, because of the lack of homers, was much lower on average, as the Western League FIP was about 3.22.

Since all the pitchers that had at least 30 innings for Rakuten's Ni-Gun team have pitched in the NPB (or Ichi-Gun), I used NPB Tracker data and averaged the velocity for all the seasons and rounded. In the pitchers part of the spreadsheet, I sorted by age, then used velocity as the first tiebreaker and then kwERA as the 2nd tiebreaker. Because there wasn't a lot of data, I could fit hitters on one screenshot and pitchers on another. If you just want to look at the screenshots, they are below. If you want to download the spreadsheet, click on this hyperlink or copy and paste the address below:

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B_DUd_c_mKWrWC1aazREekJkZDA

The tab at the bottom of the spreadsheet (if you download it) will allow you to look at either pitchers or hitters. 

Pitchers Screenshot:

Hitters Screenshot:

It would seem that Rakuten's farm system is pretty awful, especially on the pitcher side. Wataru Karashima seems to be the best pitching prospect, with solid numbers, but he is 22 and not a very hard thrower. The hitters seem to be a little better, with Takumi Miyoshi and Aoi Enomoto showing some promise offensively (but if RF/G is any indication, Miyoshi is an awful shortstop and will have to move to another position). T. Nishida is not a great looking defender according to the data, but he does seem to have a solid stick and is 21, younger than any of the pitchers Rakuten allowed to throw 30 innings or more in the Ni-Gun. In the near future, I plan on taking a bigger look at Ni-Gun statistics and prospects and perhaps create some kind of ranking system. 

Javier Herrera Signs with the Giants: Scouting Report

The San Francisco Giants signed Javier Herrera from the Frontier League to a minor league contract. Herrera spent the year between two teams in the league and played mainly right field. Herrera is a 27 year old right-handed hitter that was originally signed out of Venezuela by the Oakland A's. He developed into a top prospect, rated as the 68th best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America in 2005, and as the 74th best in 2006 and was seen as an extremely high ceiling player. However, he didn't play at all in 2006 (Tommy John Surgery) and played in just 1 game in 2009. He played just 14 games in 2010, and it was in independent ball (despite signing with the Yankees on a minor league deal). He then didn't play at all again in 2011, before getting back into independent ball in 2012 (playing in 93 games, his most since 2005). When he went on the DL with a hamstring injury in 2008, it was his 4th straight year that he went on the DL. In 2003, he was airlifted from a game after crashing into a wall. He was clearly a guy who had all the tools, but the solid numbers didn't translate from the lower levels to the upper levels and he had his career ruined by injuries.

Herrera had a .920 OPS in the Frontier League in 2012. League average is .716, as the league has a slugging percentage of just .379, while the batting average is similar to MLB averages and the OBP is higher. Of course, finding the context for these statistics from Herrera will be difficult, if not impossible. Park Factors, as far as I can see, are impossible to find, platoon/ballpark splits are unavailable (not to mention he played for two different teams), and we (or I don't) simply don't know how independent league statistics translate to the minors or big leagues. There does seem to be quite a deviation though, as either there is a great competition gulf between teams or some pretty extreme park factors. In the Majors in 2012, the worst offensive team was the Astros who scored 3.60 runs per game. The Rangers were the best team, and they scored 4.99 runs per game (Colorado gave up 5.49 runs per game, while Tampa Bay gave up 3.56 runs per game). In the Frontier League, the best offensive team scored 5.95 runs per game, while the worst offensive team scored 3.40 runs per game, a bigger difference obviously. It may be safe to say that the Rockford RiverHawks (Herrera played for the Southern Illinois Miners and RiverHawks) played in an offensive friendly environment, as they scored 5.01 runs per game and gave up 6.19 runs per game. Of course, the alternative explanation would be that their pitching was horrible but they had good hitters. The pitcher that lead the team in starts (Cody Hallahan) was 24 years old and has no stats in either college (at least not a Major college that would show up on Baseball Cube) or the minors (or even any independent league stats before 2012). They simply may have just had bad pitchers (they also had Jimmy Parque on offense, who has been signed by the Cardinals I believe) or even a bad defense.

To be fair, the Frontier League website does have some advanced statistics available, and Herrera was 4th in the league in runs created, the best out of outfielders. His K/BB was unimpressive, but this was this the case in the minors as well. His ISO of .204 wasn't overly impressive either, ranked 22nd from my count. His 93 games don't sound like a lot, but teams only play 96 games a year in the Frontier League, showing that he was finally able to stay healthy. That number is more meaningful to me than any of his actual statistics in 2012.

I wanted to see if there was any change in Herrera at the plate, and videos of him in both the minors and in the Frontier League were easy to find, so I shared them below:

Swing from '07:

Swing from 2012:

The two swings seem basically the same to me, he keeps his hands up high and then dips his shoulder before driving the ball with an uppercut swing. While he shows good control with the bat, the overall mechanics are not exactly pretty.

Defensively, ROTZ data liked him in the outfield when he was in the minors, playing mostly centerfield, though FRAA wasn't much of a fan. I wouldn't trust range factor data from the independent leagues (though perhaps minor league data probably isn't much better). However, it is extremely likely that the injuries have sapped Herrera's speed and defensive skills at least somewhat. In 2008 (in AA Midland), he had a 6.2 speed score, and according to the crude speed score metric I used in the KBO WAR, he had a 5.33 speed score in 2012, not running a lot, but not getting caught a lot. This would suggest a regression, but only a slight one and he would still be an above average baserunner.

Already 27, with 5 career games in AAA (back in '05!), the corner outfielder's likelihood of impact is obviously small to non-existent just based on odds. He has never had a season of more than 14 homers at any level, which is not something you want to say for a corner outfielder, even a good defensive one. There should be place for him in AAA, but whether he provides any kind of value depends on how much his defensive/baserunning skill set has eroded.

Juan Lagares Scouting Report

With Andres Torres signing with the Giants (for just 2 million dollars after being non-tendered), Kirk Nieuwenhuis playing basically like a replacement player in his first big league season, and AAA CF Matt Den Dekker posting a 75 OPS +, 86 wOBA + in 2012, center field is clearly a need for the Mets in 2012.
One has to look no further than the Mets' minor league depth in the upper levels at both CF and SS to see what the problems the organization is currently facing.

After Den Dekker, Juan Lagares is the next highest level centerfielder (at least, that could be called a prospect) that the Mets have. Lagares was signed out of the Dominican Republic and began in the organization in 2006. In 2007, he came stateside. In 2012, he spent the whole year in AA as a 23 year old and had a 101 OPS + and wOBA +. He was considerably better at home, even though the Mets' AA park had a 95 Park Factor for 2012 (102 Park Factor in 2011). When he was brought up to AA in 2011, and his 170 plate apperances were extremely BABIP driven. His BABIP in 2012 was a more reasonable .342, but still .035 higher than league average. This is especially strange considering his ground-ball percentage hovered around 50%. He didn't hit for much power (.107 ISO), but he did have a career high walk rate of 6.8%. Walks have always been his weakness statistically, as he has hovered around 1-4 % for a lot of his career, absolutely unacceptable. Predictably, the right-handed hitter is better against lefties, but he has been decent against righties and actually has a better walk rate against righties over the past two seasons.

Lagares stands slightly open at the plate, with a pretty noisy bat raised up high (about where you would teach a kid where to keep it). His actual swing is a little messy, as his hips work in a way that make him look like a slap hitter. It seems that he takes a large lunge before he swings, which most likely helps create this unbalance. He does have somewhat of an uppercut swing, which is probably why he occasionally hits for some power. However, it creates a lot of moving parts, which would seem to make his plate discipline wane and contact harder. Despite the low walk rates (and the mediocre at best K/BB that creates), his strikeout rates have been mostly reasonable. It is something to watch though.

Lagares played mostly center in 2012, but also 47 games in right-field as well in 2012. He was previously a shortstop, and batted ball data said he was good there as well (he made a lot of errors though, which may be why there was a positional change).Matt Den Dekker was ranked as the best defensive outfielder in the system by Baseball America on Friday. Den Dekker has only had negative FRAAs, and (while Lagares' sample size is only about half as much in center as Den Dekker) Lagares' Range Factor is much better. While the sample size is somewhat noisy obviously, Lagares would have been the top centerfielder in baseball according to Range Factor. Obviously Range Factor is crude and simple, but he has shown good speed on the bases, with 21 steals in 2012 and 25 steals in 2010 (6.3 speed score in 2012). I got him at 4.27-4.28, which is averagish for a right-handed hitter, but the video I saw of him may not have been him running all out.

There has been some concern that he fits better on a corner, which nearly destroys his value. It all depends on whether you trust what the scouts are evidently doing or the data. Whether the improved (but still not good) walk rate in AA was real has a lot to do with how I view Lageres' future Major League value. At age 23 in a league where the average hitter was 24.5, there is reason for optimism.

The Mets have been linked to the Blue Jays in R.A. Dickey rumors, and it appears that Anthony Gose might be in a possible package for him. I have never been a Gose fan, but he would provide more value in 2012 than I could see Lagares providing. He could provide future value, but the most likely scenario is obviously a 4th or 5th outfielder. If everything comes together though, he could be a starting centerfielder with in the next couple of years. 

Arismendy Alcantara Scouting Report

Arismendy Alcantara is a small middle infielder (listed at 5-10 160) that was signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Chicago Cubs in 2010. 

He has been used almost exclusively as a pinch runner/pinch fielder in the Dominican Winter League, but did get an at-bat on Wednesday night (in which he grounded out to end an extra inning game). Even with the platoon advantage (he is a switch hitter who was hitting right-handed against a left-handed pitcher), he didn't seem to have very good plate discipline and he sometimes come out of his swing.

He is not a player that ever really appears in Cubs' prospect lists but he played in A + as a 21 year old (actually he was 20 for the whole actual season). The average age in the Florida State League was 22.7 years old. Despite this, he had a good year with the bat, with a 110 wOBA + and 124 OPS +. This was good for 30th in the league in wOBA (out of hitters with at least 300 plate appearances). More impressively, Alcantara was younger than 26 of the 29 above him. The Cubs Florida State League affiliate Daytona played basically neutral in 2012 (99 one year Park Factor), but he was much more effective at home than he was on the road (the ISO was basically the same, the difference was mainly BABIP). His switch hitting is paying off as well, as he was equally effective from both sides according to OPS in 2012, with better peripherals as a right-hander and more power as a left-hander. He seems to be an average/BABIP dependent hitter, as he doesn't walk much (doesn't have a big strikeout rate, but it is too high for his walk rate) and doesn't hit for much power. He is a ground-ball hitter, though his ground-ball rate did drop in 2012. At the plate, it seems like he has some work to do mechanically. Despite taking no real stride, he loads up with a front leg kick. This isn't the best way to start and he doesn't have a swing that would make any opposing player jealous. I actually saw some video of him before 2012, and it seems that he did not have this load. Perhaps it is ironic that he had a better season with it, or perhaps it is a timing mechanism that works for him. 

After stealing just 8 bases and being caught 8 times in 2011, Alcantara was much more efficient in 2012, stealing 25 bases and was caught just 4 bases. Part of the struggles in 2011 may have to do with leg injuries, as he has had DL stints in each of the past 2 years. However, one would not have expected him to have had the success on the bases he had in 2012 if they were bothering him. Overall, you are seeing improvements in his overall game, as his ISO, Stolen Base success, and Speed Score have all went up over his 3 years (without repeating levels), and he has been dropping his strikeout rate as well (I am not counting 2009, as he spent the year in the Dominican Summer League, which is somewhat of a different animal statistically). His speed score was 8.1 in 2012, which was 2nd to only teammate Matt Szczur in the Florida State League (it was also in the top 40 in the minor leagues as a whole, tied with Brett Jackson and Jimmy Paredes). Basically, he is fast, and a good baserunner as well (Baseball Prospectus gives him a positive baserunner and the Baseball Cube gives him a 85 out of 100 on speed).

Both the data (RTZ, FRAA, and Range Factor) and the scouting reports say he needs to work on his defense. However, he played almost exclusively shortstop in 2012 (after splitting time better short/2B/3B in previous seasons). While athleticism obviously does not always translate to good defense, both his age and speed at least give you a reason to think that he will improve.

Whether or not his defense develops determines whether or not he is a MLB player for me. If he becomes at least a decent to average defender, he could be a slap hitting utility infielder that you could use late in games on the bases. Because his plate discipline needs so much work, I have to imagine that he is going to find AA in 2013 pretty tough. 

NPB Scouing Reports: Morifuku and More

Here are some small scouting reports I put together from the NPB playoff game between the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks and Saitama Seibu Lions on Friday October 13th (I watched online):

Shogo Akiyama is a big left-handed hitter that doesn't have the bailout swing that you see a lot in the NPB. Akiyama does not have great bat speed either, however. He seems to have good plate discipline and had an OBP .030 points higher than league average with a SLG .060 better than league average. The swing includes what may be a little bit of a chop, but he can use the whole field by going the other way or pulling the ball. He did not look like a great runner and his stolen base rate seems to confirm this even though he plays centerfield.

Kenta Imamiya has a pretty wild swing that gets him way out in front of off-speed. I say this with the caveat that when I saw him, he had to face a right-handed submariner as a right-handed batter (obviously not a great match-up). He is a ground-ball hitter with good running ability that plays shortstop.

Yutaro Osaki is a lefty hitter that will chase curves. There are a lot of moving parts in his swing. He has a skinny build with what looks like a good contact tool, and he really stays with the ball well. At age 27, this was his first year to play over 100 games and he had an OPS of .691. That doesn't sound impressive until you realize that league average was .658. His K/BB was a solid 27/17 and he struck out less than 10% of the time.

Masahiko Morifuku is a left-handed reliever with a really quirky delivery. He 
brings the ball way down, and hides it behind body. He is really small human being (not to mention being a pitcher) at 5-7 141, but somehow hides the ball behind his body.

Morifuku started by throwing his changeup quite a bit. He definitely falls under the category of "soft tosser". He has glove side tail (which must be his "shutto", which is really just what we would call a 2-seam fastball) on his 82 MPH-83 MPH fastball that sometimes moves down like a change. The 26 year old's upside is only as a LOOGY, but he has been phenomenal statistically since the change in baseball in the NPB.

Scouting Reports on the Reds' AA affiliate

I watched the Pensacola Blue Wahoos, the Reds AA affiliate managed by Jim Riggleman play a few games. Here are a few notes on some of the players:

J.C. Sulbaran very big right-hander at 6'2-220. Good breaking ball that slides from right to left. It looks like a soft slider basically.  His fastball didn't look great, and was really hit pretty hard when it rode high. He did get some whiffs on it high though. Also has what looks like a changeup with decent late break despite not a lot of movement. He can throw that pitch for strikes. He can throw his curveball for strikes, in what is an advanced assortment of pitches, especially considering he is willing to use them all early in the game. He can get whiffs on all his pitches, especially when his slider and his curve breaks out of the zone.

Tony Cingrani has a pretty good fastball at 88-94 MPH and was blowing hitters away early on. He likes to throw it high but can throw it low as well. The lefty blew away the first 3 hitters with fastballs. He has a curveball that looks mediocre, but it looks its best when he throws it for strikes. He also throws a changeup.

 Kyle Lotzkar gave up a lot of hard hit balls but had a good looking fastball with good command. He can throw some nice breaking balls for strikes that he can get whiffs with. After going strikeout crazy, he gave up a lot of fly-balls.

Drew Hayes has a not very impressive fastball with a breaking ball with late break that looks like a fastball for a while. He walked the first batter he faced despite getting a whiff early in the count. He dominated the 2nd inning when he struck out the side.

Tim Crabbe had a control issues but had good looking breaking pitches (he throws a lot of them) to go along with a decent looking fastball. He didn't give up a lot of hard hit balls besides a leadoff homer.

Mark Serrano has a sweeping slider and a 90 MPH fastball. He had problems controlling the fastball and hit a batter. His confidence was in the slider but he wasn't really throwing it for strikes. He is a good athlete on defense and has a good pickoff move for a righty. 

Catcher Brad Peacock did not look like a very good defensive catcher. The opponents ran all over him. He also seems kind of small for a catcher.

Andrew Means had a big whiff on a breaking ball and was jammed on a fastball. He had a long at-bat with some fouls though, and hit a hanging breaking ball to the wall. He had issues with quality breaking balls.

Beau Mills is a big 1st baseman, but he doesn't have much bat speed, at least from what I saw. He didn't show the skills at the plate that you want in a 1st baseman. He looked like a dead fastball hitter, as he was way off when it came to the changeup. He clobbered a low fastball, so while I didn't see much at the plate, there maybe something there. Although he is a decent looking athlete with his size, he wasn't a very good fielder.

Miguel Rojas looks like a good shortstop and has pretty good looking speed as well. At the plate, he had his bat absolutely destroyed. Bryson Smith had an incredible catch in left field. His numbers in the California League (he has just recently been promoted to AA) were unimpressive though with a .807 OPS, which doesn't really cut it for a corner outfielder. Brodie Green had a bad play at 2nd but showed some pretty good contact skills with a decent eye at the plate.

Josh Fellhauer is little but had a few good pieces of hitting and appears to be a good contact guy. He did get jammed and had a weak flail at a breaking ball by a righty. He doesn't have much power or plate discipline, which is frustrating since he is listed as a corner outfielder. He does know how to hit though and can run as well.

Scouting Report on Chris Lofton

Chris Lofton was a 9th round pick by the San Francisco Giants. He is currently playing for the San Jose Giants, and that is where I watched him play on May 31st 2012.

Defensively, he wasn't tested hard, but he made all the routine plays and showed off some pretty good range in center field (range factor suggests that he has under average range). His arm seems pretty accurate, even on the run, but it is a pretty weak arm. On the bases, a botched pickoff move gave him two extra bases. He probably wasn't running his hardest but I thought he showed above average speed (Baseball Cube suggests that speed is his best attribute, rating it at 79 out of 100).

Offensively, he showed his above average patience (69 according the Baseball Cube) when he got ahead 2-0, faked a bunt to get 3-0, then took low and away to walk. As a left handed hitter (right handed thrower), he was mainly pitched away it seemed. In his next at-bat, he took an outside fastball for ball before hitting a hard liner to 2nd for an out. Next time at the plate, he took a low pitch and then hit a high pitch hard to first for a ground-ball out. He got ahead in his next at-bat 1-0 again, before faking another bunt to make it 1-1. He then swung and missed at the best pitch he saw in the whole at-bat, but worked an 8 pitch walk with some good takes and fouls. So what I saw was a decent but not great contact hitter with a good eye with not much power but some bad luck.
Statistically, Lofton has not had a good professional career. Despite a .319 career BABIP and walk rate just short of 10%, he has a .642 career OPS. He doesn't seem to have any power to speak of, and his "speed scores" are extremely disappointing.

He is extremely unpolished, and the ceiling certainly is really high, but there is some talent there obviously.

Is Vladimir Guerrero worth 5 Million in 2012?

I was intrigued by a report that Vladimir Guerrero and Johnny Damon are both holding out expecting a 5 million dollar deal. I clearly believe Johnny Damon is worth that, as he had a bad BABIP year in 2011 and was still worth his 5.5 million dollar salary. However, as I hadn't written an article yet on Vlad, I thought it would be interesting to see whether he is actually worth 5 million dollars to a team. He had just a .1 WAR with the Orioles in 2011, obviously not worth 5 million dollars, while over the 3 last years he has averaged a .8 WAR. Again, this is worth less than 3 million dollars according to the Halladay Standard. Over the last 3 years, he has averaged .54 Runs Created per game, or 75.8 Runs Created per 140 games or about 10 runs more than an average player. In 2011, he was about average at creating runs. Over the last 3 years, he has a 109 OPS +, with an OPS + of 101. However, he is terrible at defense, and the Orioles didn't even let him play defense in 2011. So while he seems to be a slightly above average hitter, you have to count that with his defense he is either a below average player or strictly a DH, which limits his signing places. This makes it borderline absurd to suggest that Guerrero is worth 5 million dollars, but in the end, it only takes one team paying it. Lets do a final projection. Using ZIPS, Vlad is projected to create 74.29 Runs in 137 games, so combining ZIPS, 2011, and 2009-2011, we get Guerrero with 71.8 Runs or about 6 runs more than an average player in 140 games with an OPS + of slightly over 100. So Vlad does seem to be poised to have a slightly above average offensive season in 2012. So if he is willing to settle for under 3 million, he is definitely worth taking a look at.

John Bowker to go to Japan

The Phillies have released John Bowker so he can pursue a career in the NPB. In 622 PA (about a full season), Bowker had a .283 OBP, .664 OPS, 3.31 PAPP, and .61 PPG. Through the NPB metric, he is projected to have a .316 OBP and a .06 Simple WAR. In his Major League career, he had a 74 OPS +, with 3.6 Runs Created per a game. His Secondary Average was .216, and an Isolated Slugging of .150. He was an average home run hitter and good flyball hitter, but a below average walker. He saw an average amount of pitches per plate appearances. This all added up to a Offensive Winning Percentage of .374. Defensively, he was horrible at first base, and had an above average fielding percentage in the outfield, but got to a lot less balls than an average outfielder according to range factor. In total, it is estimated that he saved 5 runs above average in his career, mainly because of his outfield play. Assuming he plays above average in the outfield in the NPB, and his projected just above replacement offense, he would certainly be worth the equivalent of 1 million American dollars (because most NPB teams can pay about 1 million dollars per 1 WAR as we saw in the Lastings Milledge article).

Cubs aquire Rizzo

The Cubs sent Andrew Cashner and Kyung-Min Na to the Padres for Anthony Rizzo and and Zach Cates.

Cashner has 65 career MLB innings (basically all in relief), and has earned a .3 WAR in that time. His PE is .115, with an adjusted PE of .665. His FIP - is 117, but his SIERA is 3.94. He has a nice groundball ratio (1.52), but gave up 1.25 HR/9IP. He has a league average Pit/PA. A bigger sample size is his AA numbers, where he has pitched 97 innings and had a PE of -1.95, and gave up just .1 HR/9IP. His FIP was about 2.8, meaning he had a CWAR of about 1.26. This would be a negative WAR in the MLB according to our AA metric.

Na is a below average outfielder according to both fielding percentage and range factor. He has played 149 games in the minors, almost exclusively in different levels of A-ball (just 2 games in AA). There he has an OBP of .335 and OPS of just .619. This projects to a terrible .286 OBP and .453 OPS.

Rizzo has a -.7 WAR in 49 career MLB games. He has played 93 games in AAA, in the PCL. There he has a .404 OBP, 1.056 OPS, 2.2 PAPP, 2.7 PPG, for a great 6.44 Simple WAR. This projects to a 4.95 Simple WAR with an OBP of .358. Defensively, he isn't bad, with a 9.51 Range Factor and .989 Fielding Percentage at 1st base.

Cates has spent just one year in A ball, and had an even 0 PE as a starter, with an adjusted PE of -1.4. He has an okay walk rate, and gave up just .31 HR/9IP. His CWAR was 2.11, and if we assume that pitcher regression would be the same as hitter regression (that is the ratio of CWAR lost to Simple WAR lost is 1:1), he would have a -1.45 CWAR in the MLB. A different way might be to use the 22% regression that hitters see in their OPS from A ball-MLB and apply that to his FIP. This would project his FIP at 3.94, which would obviously lead to a positive WAR.

The Cubs get a first baseman that projects to be very good in the Majors, and a pitcher with a good strikeout rate and doesn't give up homers while the Padres get a player that can't play along with a reliever that doesn't project very well either and struggles with homers. This is a very lopsided trade.

Cubs resign Reed Johnson

The Cubs have resigned Reed Johnson to a 1 year, 1.15 million dollar deal. In 2011, he had a 1.3 WAR, and has a .63 WAR average over the last 3 years, which is worth about 1.9 million dollars. Defensively he is not very good, at a -.6 career D-WAR, -.1 in 2011. While his fielding percentage is above league average, he doesn't make many errors, he doesn't get to many balls either, with a well below average range factor. BaseballProjection says that he cost his team 4 runs more than an average fielder. Offensively, Johnson had a .348 OBP, 122 OPS +, and .130 ISO with a gigantic .394 BABIP. Obviously those statistics are pretty useless, as his 1.3 WAR is not something you can expect to repeat. That certainly taints the .63 WAR average over the last 3 years, as his 2009 and 2010 WARs were both .3. Over those two years, Johnson has an OPS + of 84, and OBP of just .309 with a BABIP of .310. These are pretty abysmal offensive numbers as evidenced by his 4 runs created per game and .426 offensive winning percentage in those two years. In his career, he has walked just 4.8% of the time, and is an under average extra base and home run hitter. Even at such a small low risk contract, the Johnson signing doesn't make a whole lot of sense. It would have been much better if they had been able to bring him back on a minor league deal.

Dominican Winter League Metric

I picked 50 batters that played at least 20 games in the Dominican Winter League in 2011, and compared the OBP and OPS of their Winter League season and compared it to their MLB or AA numbers (sometimes both). A few didn't have either, so I put their A numbers and then put up just about everyone's A numbers afterwards so we could go ahead and create a A metric. Click the picture to enlarge of course (the best bet is to right click and open in new tab and zoom)

 The average OBP in the DWL by the players surveyed was .313, while the OPS was .662. Of the 24 that have MLB experience (at least enough to qualify, I set the cutoff at about 50 games), they averaged an OBP of .299 and OPS of .664. However, we do have a AA metric, so we will project the players that have AA statistics but no MLB statistics and then we will be able to calculate both a A metric and a DWL metric. Projections are in bold (-.058 OBP from AA to MLB, and -.136 OPS from AA to MLB)

So the 48 Projected/Actual MLB players averaged a .279 OBP and .630 OPS. This means that from DWL to MLB, there is a -.034 OBP and -.032 OPS (which means that the Slugging actually improves a little bit in the MLB, suggesting that the DWL is not exactly a friendly slugging environment). For some perspective on Venezuelan League Statistics, I would direct you here: http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/1/3/2679279/venezuelan-league-stats-carlos-zambrano-bryan-lahair

Now for the A-ball projection. The 34 players we have A-ball and MLB numbers (or projections) for averaged a .342 OBP and .775 OPS in A ball. Those same players averaged a .293 OBP and .659 OPS in the MLB (or MLB projections). This means there is an average regression of -.049 OBP and -.116 OPS.

The Orioles pull off a couple of trades

The Orioles traded cash for Jai Miller from Oakland, and moved Brandon Snyder to Texas for cash. Since we don't (and won't) know the actual cash considerations, we will just compare Jai Miller to Brandon Snyder and see if the player they acquired is better than the one they got rid of (i.e. is Miller better than Snyder).

Miller has played in just 28 MLB games, so it doesn't seem wise to take anything from that. He has played in 423 AAA games, so it does make a lot of sense to look at those statistics. Defensively, he is under average, as his outfield range factor shows. Offensively, he has a .351 OBP, 867 OPS, 1.5 PPG, 2.36 PAPP, which is a 2.42 Simple WAR. This projects to be a .93 Simple WAR with an OBP of .305.

Snyder has just 16 games played in the MLB, so like Miller, we will rely on his minor league numbers. Defensively, he is under average at first base. Offensively at AAA (285 games), he has a .317 OBP, .711 OBP, 1.11 PPG, and 3.05 PAPP. This adds up to a -.43 Simple WAR. So Snyder is a below replacement AAA player.

This makes it quite obvious that the Orioles acquired the better player and dumped the worse one. Assuming the cash considerations were about the same, then it appears that the Orioles made a pretty decent roster move.

Lastings Milledge goes to Japan

The Yakult Swallows of Japan have signed Lastings Milledge to a $570,000 (converted to American currency) dollar contract. The average NPB salary is $420,000. According to Gen Sueyoshi (you can see the post here: http://yakyubaka.com/npb-salaries/2011-yakult-swallows-salary-report/ and follow him on twitter @gwynar), the Swallows had a payroll of 2491.1 Million Yen, or 32 million dollars in 2011. The NPB season is 144 games, so a "replacement team" (0 WAR players would win 32% of their games according to the official WAR calculus) would win 46 games. To win the Central League (the league that Yakult belongs) in 2011, Chunichi won 75 games. That seems like a goal-line, so a team expecting to win their league needs 29 Wins Above Replacement. So the Swallows have 32 million dollars to get those 29 Wins, so they can spend 1.1 million dollars per WAR. Therefore, at a salary of 570k, Milledge would need about a .5 WAR. So we will use Milledge's MLB statistics (along with his 2011 AAA numbers) and the metrics we have designed for NPB baseball to project Millddge's success. Milledge is a horrible defender, earning a -3.3 D-WAR in 6 seasons, or -.55 D-WAR a year. Depending on whether you trust BaseballProjection or BaseballInfoSolutions, Milledge cost his team 44 or 10 runs more than an average fielder in his career. With the bat, Milledge had a .328 OBP, .723 OPS, .94 PPG, 2.96 PAPP. This translates to a .361 OBP, .789 OPS, 1.43 PPG, 2.22 PAPP according to our Japanese metric. This is a 2.68 Simple WAR, and even with subtracting his -.55 D-WAR, you still get a 2.13 WAR, well worth the 570k the Swallows will give him. In 2011, he spent basically the whole year in AAA. He had a .364 OBP and .805 OPS there. Converted to Major League Statistics, this is a .318 OBP and .713 OPS, pretty replacement level, but it is a .351 OBP and .779 OPS projection for the NPB. This is pretty similar to what his MLB numbers stated. All in all, expect Milledge to make a pretty nice impact offensively in the NPB and turn out to be a nice signing for the Swallows.

The Angels sign Langerhans, Hurley, and Diaz

The Angels have singed Ryan Langerhans, Eric Hurley, and Robinson Diaz to Minor League contracts.

Langerhans had just 64 PA in 2011, so those numbers are useless. In his career he has a .333 OBP, 86 OPS +, and .301 Secondary Average. His ISO is just .146, but he has 4.5 Runs Created per a Game and .456 Offensive Winning Percentage. He walks a stunning 13 % of the time, and is just below average at extra base hits and homers. He hits more line drives than average and has more flyballs than grounders. His PPS is a very solid 95.5. He is also a good defender with a career D-WAR of 3.0. This is a very good pickup for the Angels.

Hurley has very little Major League experience. In AAA, he has a 2.66 PE as a starter. This translates to a 5.19 PE in the Majors. He has struggled mightily with homers, there doesn't seem to be anything here.

Diaz also has meager MLB playing time. He does however, have tons of AAA time. There he has just a .296 OBP, and .664 OPS. He doesn't help himself defensively by being a very poor catcher. At least 1 of these signings will help the Angels, but I don't see how the last two will, but they are just minor league contracts.