AFL Pitch F/X Data: Individual Batting Results

In the previous post, I looked at general batting results and locations. In this post, I wanted to look at more individualized results, seeing if the data will tell us something about each individual batter.

First, let's look at how each batter was pitched by average locations:

I am surprised at the concentration of pitches and where they are located. Right-handers were pitched inside on average, which is surprising. However, this matches the average location data we saw with the pitchers, so this could just be right-handers struggling to get the ball glove side. This seems to a mark of a struggling or young pitcher, at least that is what other cases suggest. The White Sox' Micah Johnson, and Alex Dickerson, just acquired by the Padres were pitched extremely low, while Tyler Austin, a top prospect with the Yankees, was pitched extremely inside.

Now that we have seen where the batters were pitched, let's look at the average locations of their whiffs:

As you can see, the graph has shifted to the middle of the plate on a whole. This suggests that the batters were pitched inside on average, but were more likely to swing and miss at pitches away, something we saw in the previous post. Nick Ahmed, the dazzling defensive shortstop with the Diamondbacks, swung at missed at a lot of pitches away, while Johnson and the Phillies' minor leaguer Cameron Perkins struggled with balls low. Wes Darvill of the Cubs is a left-handed hitter, so he also struggled with pitches low and away. The Angels' Jett Bandy bucked the trend by struggling with high pitches.

With this in mind, I wanted to look at the worst pitches that batters swung at, that is, the pitches furthest out of the zone, starting with the highest pitch swung at:

This is not quite a full foot out of the zone. Lamb was a 6th round pick by the Diamondbacks in 2012 out of the University of Washington. He is a 3B/DH that has only played in the lower minors so far, but he has a manageable K/BB and has hit for a high slash line all the way around. AA may be a test for him, especially if he is consistently this impatient, but the numbers are good so far.

Lowest:

Alfaro is one of the Rangers' best prospects, and he has a reputation for being quite the free swinger, here swinging at a pitch that bounced before it reached the plate.

Furthest to the Right (catcher's perspective):

Parker has posted good numbers throughout the minors, including AA, since being drafted out of the first round by the Rockies after a football career. However, there does seem to be some concern about swing and miss, and here the right-hander swung at a pitch a foot out of the zone away.

Furthest to the Left:

 Gift is interesting because he was signed out of South Africa, but the numbers haven't been very good, and he really struggled in AA in 2012. Here, the switch hitter swung at a pitch that was a foot off the plate, and in the dirt, which I think is indisputably the worst swing of the AFL Pitch F/X games.

Of course, looking at some positive things can be helpful as well, and we looked at homers in the previous post, so let's look at the other two extra base hits, starting with all the doubles in Pitch F/X games in the AFL, marked by location and labelled with the hitter of the double:

Cristhian Adames, a 22 year old with the Rockies who struggled in 2013, hit the highest double, while Robby Hefflinger, a former 7th round pick by the Braves, hit a double on the lowest pitch. Japhet Amador and 2012 Cubs 1st round pick Albert Almora hit doubles on pitches that were up and in and balls. Kyle Parker swung at a bad ball in an above graph, but he also hit a double on a borderline strike on this graph.

Triples are much more rare, so this graph is much cleaner, but there are no repeats, so it is difficult to guage any kind of predictability:

Other than Spangenberg, who hit a low and in pitch for a triple, the triples came on pitches in the middle part of the plate or high. It is interesting to see Alfaro here, hitting a high ball for a triple despite being a catcher. Austin Hedges is also a catcher, and Kris Bryant is hardly known for his speed, making triples as "doubles with speed" a misnomer.

Vanderbilt and Louisville Drafted Players Scouting Reports

Here are some notes on some of the drafted players from the Louisville and Vanderbilt Super Regional.

Spencer Navin (334th overall, Dodgers) is Vanderbilt's junior catcher. The arm looks good, but the blocking fundamentals weren't solid as he tried to just glove the ball. Good body, pop times of 2 flat,1.91, 1.93, good times. At the plate, he seemed to struggle with good fastballs, especially up high. Wasn't really impressed with anything he brought to the plate offensively, which I guess isn't surprising since he batted 8th.

Chad Green Louisville RHP (336th overall, Tigers). Lanky, could add some weight, but already has good velocity. He showed a 92-94 MPH fastball, with some downward plane and movement. He could really tie up right-handed hitters with it. His main breaking pitch was a 79-81 MPH Curve that he liked but couldn't really get down. He had really poor command of pitch. Green also tended to fall off the mound, which would pull the ball way off the plate glove side. His least frequent used pitch was a 83 MPH change moves arm side. It is a good pitch if he can command it.

Adam Engel CF (573 White Sox). He does not have a great swing plane or swing start, but the bat seems to be pretty quick, can hit the ball up the middle with authority. Does have good plate coverage, but is a little too agressive, doesn't have much power. He does have plus speed, should stick in center.

Jeffery (Jeff) Thompson RHP (94th overall, Tigers)
A really big guy at 6-7, he offers no projection but has really good size. His delivery is a really easy motion. He was down to 89-91 MPH as game went along but started at  92-94 touching 95 MPH with a little armside or downward movement. The fastball was not straight. The first breaking pitch was 83-84 MPH soft moving slider. He throws it glove side, and without the platoon advantage, and it also needs to be tighter and preferably harder. He did show a couple of ones with good vertical depth. He also got down to 80 MPH on what looked like a separte curve. It predictably has better vertical depth.

Ty Young 3rd base (218th overall, Rays). A really good looking defender. The range is clearly there and above average. Made some plays that many MLB 3rd baseman wouldn't make. I am not totally sure on the arm though. A lefty hitter, he comes out of the box a little bit but gets the bat through the zone very quick and can go up the middle.

Coco Johnson OF (332nd overall, Marlins). He looks athletic but does not really plus speed. Good size (finished growing out probably) but a little awkward in the field, not a plus fielder and stuck in a corner, though apparently has an arm (didn't see it, just heard about it). The swing isn't real powerful, but he can pull the ball, flat swing.

Cody Ege LHP (460th overall, Rangers). A reliever with really good numbers.
Has an out release point, somewhat sidearm. 88-89 MPH sweeps arm side.
74-77 MPH soft slider looking pitch. Lefty specialist

Oregon State Draft Prospects: Blue Jays, White Sox, Phillies and Astros

Oregon State had several players drafted in the 2013 MLB draft, and I was able to see 5 of them play on television against Kansas State in the Super Regionals.

Matt Boyd P Blue Jays (175 overall):

Boyd has always had nice numbers in college, but before 2013, the now senior was a reliever. The ESPN U scouting report said he threw a slider, changeup, curveball along with his fastball, but I didn't see the slider. I charted the pitches according to the ESPN U gun and he had an average fastball of 87.24 MPH, which is closest to Pedro Feliciano in the Pitch F/X era. He threw it 68 percent of the time. His curveball averaged 72.43 and his changeup averaged 74 MPH.

Boyd has a really high leg kick in which he straightens out his leg. It seems like he has a lot going on mechanically. He's got good size on the mound, listed at 6-3 and over 200 pounds. Boyd had a lot of problems missing glove side early on, pulling the ball.

His fastball doesn't look like quite like a sinker, but he keeps the fastball low for the most part. The curve doesn't have much vertical depth, and though he used it first, his change was more prevalent. He wasn't afraid to work fastball on hands of righties and was fastball heavy to begin the game, very traditional usage. He has the really soft college change, which won't work in Majors. I could only really tell the difference from it and the curve by vertical movement as it obviously had less. He would use change against lefties as well as righties.
He isn't a strikeout pitcher, but he got whiffs against lefties on fastball. He seems to be the kind of pitcher that likes working inside, throwing glove side to righties, and arm side to lefties. Relatively athletic in field, not bad, not great. There were a few pitches where he flat didn't finish his delivery. Slow pace, especially with runners on, lot of pickoff throws, move seemed decent. Overall, he got plenty of infield fly-balls.

I think maybe he has a future as a lefty specialist. The stuff won't cut it in a traditional relief role and he isn't a starter professionally in my opinion.

Daniel (or Danny) Hayes 1B White Sox (393 overall):

Despite his position, he batted towards the bottom of the order. Another senior, will probably be an easy and cheap sign to help them sign other draft picks. Doesn't look like a 1st baseman, a tall, but lanky, left-handed hitter. He's got a lot to his swing, as it looks quick, but he has to get it started soon to get all of the wiggle out of it. Because of this, up and in is a problem for him. He had to face a left-hander with a bit of an arm drop in his release point, which made it a little tough on him. He did see fastballs out of the zone well, didn't even flinch. On the other hand, he had problems with the breaking ball.

Defensively just saw routine plays other than a decent pick. Most likely organizational filler. Positional value is low to non existent, obvious holes in swing.

Scott Shultz P Marlins (502)

A somewhat funky delivery, as he has somewhat of a pause when his leg gets all the way up. He gets on top of the ball, can throw it low, fastball is a little straight. Short outing, just threw 4 fastballs that averaged 88.5 MPH, can get up to 94MPH according to reports. Tough to tell, depends on where his fastball velocity sits as a professional, was a successful college pitcher, mainly because he didn't walk hardly anyone.

Daniel Child P Phillies (541)

Another guy with good numbers because of a low walk rate and okay strikeout rate. Tall (listed at 6-5), but probably not going to add much more weight. Really aesthetically ugly mechanics .He brings a high leg kick and a body rock backwards with an arm action that almost looks like a shot put. With that said, he brought better velocity than the above pitchers, throwing 92-94 MPH on his fastball. He also threw one 79 MPH change (?) without real command. He's a fastball pitcher. Everything moves arm side for himand he threw the fastball low quite a bit.

There is MLB velocity there, I guess how you rate him depends on whether you think his mechanics will impede him from throwing strikes or not allow him to stay healthy. He didn't have a good outing and gave up some groundball hits, I don't think it means much as he has had good numbers for the past two seasons, serving mostly as a starter.

Jake Rodriguez C Astros (557)

Batted 8th, very mediocre numbers. Short at 5-9, Rodriguez is stout, without real growth potential. His receiving seemed good, and his arm looked strong, and he blocked well.

At the plate, he had a clear otherway swing, but seems to get it started quick with relatively good speed. He is not going to hit for much power it appears, but the bat control might be good enough to have him hit for a decent average. Predictably has little to no foot speed.

He was a little too aggressive, and does not have good plate discipline. Defense will carry him in the organization and he has the potential to be one of those guys that hang around organized baseball for a long time and could get a cup of coffee in the Majors.

Free Agent Fantasy Team: Jeff Keppinger's Horrible 2013

This week's Free Agent Fantasy Team update actually contains a few roster moves. First, I signed Rick Ankiel to the big league team with the Mets. I am assuming that it is for league minimum prorated over the rest of the year. For now, we will assume he is owed 367,500 dollars. This brings my payroll up to 99.9785 million for the season, meaning I have about 8.02 million dollars for the rest of the season. I also had to move David Ross to the minors/inactive part of the team as he is on the 7 day concussion DL. To make room, I released Mitch Maier, who has played all of 8 games in the minors this year. Here is the numbers for my team:

Since most teams have played 42 games so far:

7.2 fWAR, 19.548 wins, 22.452 losses

9.7 rWAR, 22.048 wins, 19.952 losses

7.3 WARP, 20.74 wins, 21.26 losses

2.1 WAA, 23.1 wins, 18.9 losses

Again, WAA likes my team the best, but we are over .500 by two metrics now, with Fangraphs liking the team the least again.

Jeff Keppinger has been the most frustrating player on the team (if you don't count Ryan Madson's ever evolving injury situation), getting a 3 year contract after a good season with the Rays and hitting .188/.190/.208 through a month and a half. Keppinger finally drew his first walk this year earlier this week, which even for his contact happy ways is amazing.

This graph shows where pitchers are pitching him on average by count:

 Here are the pitches Keppinger is swinging at:

There are some definite chases, but most of the pitches are obviously in the strike zone.

Here are the pitches he is taking:

Even when he is taking, the pitchers are filling up the strike zone. Even with no strikes, as we saw in the first chart, pitchers are basically throwing it right down the middle. It is not like he is just chasing wildly and not seeing strikes.
Since pitchers are throwing him so much strikes, you wonder if bat speed is a problem (after all, he isn't making them pay), so here are the locations and results on fastballs over 95 MPH:

Most of them are thrown for strikes and thrown away from him. He has put quite a bit in play, but they are almost all for outs. It is contact, but contact that is not paying off. According to Baseball Heat Maps, he isn't hitting the ball as far:

2012: 173.864 feet on average
2013: 162.152 feet on average

Of course, there is a catch/no-catch bias in these numbers, so if he is having a large amount of balls just hit right at people, then it is going to show up in batted ball distance.

Here is Keppinger's spray chart (Texas Leaguers) at this point last year:

So far this year:

While he was hitting the ball harder last year according to the batted ball distance, his spray chart, if you ignore hits versus outs, looks better this year. Other than a pair of pulled homers, he was not hitting the ball very hard at all. He is driving the ball to center much better this year, it just isn't turning into hits. It is really hard to imagine his final line looking pretty at the end of the year, but he should "regress", and start hitting better than he has results wise. I think the best approach here is to be patient and give him more time (certainly the White Sox aren't going to already give up on a 3 year contract).

Is Paul Konerko's Bat Speed Fading?

Paul Konerko has been a pretty successful hitter for the White Sox for a long time now, with a 121 wRC + for his career. He wasn't showing many signs of slowing down either, with better than career average years each of the last three seasons. However, through a month and a half of the season, Konerko has been a terrible hitter, with what would be a career low walk rate and career high strikeout rate (if you ignore the 6 games he played for the Dodgers in 1997). He also is hitting for no power, and while his BABIP is lower than it almost ever is (and he had high BABIPs over the last three seasons), the other numbers suggest that something else is going on. He is 37, so you wonder if he is just losing his bat speed. Using Pitch F/X data and other tools, I wanted to see if we could test this.

First, I looked at all 262 pitches he has seen that were 90 MPH and over. There are at least a couple sliders mixed in there, but we will keep them in there, ignoring classifications for now.

90-91 MPH, 41 pitches, 12 balls put in play, no swinging strikes

91-92 MPH, 60 pitches, 11 balls put in play, 5 swinging strikes

92-93 MPH, 43 pitches, 15 balls put in play, no swinging strikes

93-94 MPH, 40 pitches, 9 balls put in play, no swinging strikes

94-95 MPH, 31 pitches, 3 balls put in play, 3 swinging strikes

95-96 MPH, 16 pitches, 4 balls put in play, 2 swinging strikes

96-97 MPH, 18 pitches, 4 balls put in play, 2 swinging strikes

97 + MPH, 13 pitches, 3 balls put in play, 2 swinging strikes

He has handled above average fastballs very well, at least when you look at contact versus whiffs (which stabilizes faster, so we don't have to worry too much about small sample size). So it would seem, from this data, that his bat speed is fine. He can catch up with good fastballs and at least make contact with them. Of course, we haven't looked at where he is putting balls in play, which can give us an indication of bat speed.

Here is his spray chart (all pitches) in 2013 so far, according to Texas Leaguers:

Here he is so far in May:

As you can see, so far this month, Konerko isn't pulling any balls down the line with any kind of authority. This could be evidence that he can't get around on balls. Let's compare his chart from last year from the start of the season to May 12th, the same amount of time from the first chart:

It seems that all the batted balls in all the zones are deeper. So perhaps it is a question of strength (which is usually related to bat speed in some way). First, let's look at his spray chart for the entire 2012 season:

Konerko pulled a lot of homers last year, and he isn't doing the same this year, at least not so far. If you look at his average batted ball distance according to Baseball Heat Maps (teasing out balls hit less than 150 feet), he is hitting the ball over 13 feet shorter per batted ball this season. He is simply not hitting the ball as hard, this is not a BABIP issue. When you look at where he is swinging and missing at pitches:

Konerko is missing on some pitches inside, but he is missing at a lot of pitches high and a lot of pitches low and away. The evidence suggests that he is guessing at a lot of pitches, as he is missing mainly breaking balls. Plate discipline is not usually a problem for him, so perhaps he is trying to compensate for lost bat speed. In this way, he is able to keep hitting fastballs (though unable to pull them with authority because the strength and speed isn't there) because he is guessing fastball, but it causes him to swing and miss at a lot of breaking balls. Either way, there is something seriously wrong at the plate for Konerko. Maybe he is just injured and trying to play through some issues. If this is the case, perhaps some rest will help him heal. Or, the problem could be that age has caught up to him, not allowing him to be as strong as he once was.

Scouting Report on Pedro Hernandez

Pedro Hernandez was traded from the Padres to the White Sox in the Carlos Quentin trade. The White Sox then traded him in the middle of the year in part of a deal to get Francisco Liriano (who gave the White Sox .7 fWAR, a lot of strikeouts, but too many walks with too many homers).

Hernandez is 23 years old and is a short but stout lefty (5-10, 200). He is fastball heavy (upper 80s to low 90s, sits about 90 MPH), but it doesn't seem to play as well against righties, especially when he tries to keep it away. He likes to throw the fastball high, but moves it inside and outside. It looks like he has decent looking command with it. Hernandez also throws what looks like a sinker that he keeps low with some okay movement.
His main off-speed pitch is a change that he can throw for strikes. He will throw it to lefties as well, and tries to locate it on the outside corner to them, with pretty good success. It doesn't have great movement, but the location, speed differential, and ability to sell it with his arm action makes it a pretty good pitch.
He also mixes in a slider that dives into the dirt pretty sharply. I liked the break on it, but he really didn't throw it much when I watched him.

Statistically, Hernandez doesn't have big splits, which surprises me. I guess he locates the change well enough to keep hitters off balance. However, he does not have a good ground-ball rate, despite good looking command. That is at least somewhat concerning and it is not as if he makes up for it with a lot of infield fly-balls.

Overall, he throws a lot of strikes (over 66%) and at-bats don't usually last very long (3.48 Pit/PA over the last two years). He just doesn't walk batters (walk percentage under 5% over the last two years), but he doesn't strikeout a lot of people either.

Hernandez seems to have the mix of pitches and command to be a starter in the big leagues. It is very doubtful that he can be average, but he can certainly be acceptable. The question will obviously be whether or not he is too hittable. He is the type of pitcher who succeeds in AAA only to struggle in the Majors, a pitchability lefty with mediocre stuff. I think I am bullish on Hernandez though, I could see him being a capable above replacement starter in the Majors. He seems to be the kind of guy who would benefit from a pitcher friendly park more than an average pitcher. According to @Toritap's park factors, Target Field played slightly in favor of pitchers this year.

Scouting Report on Sal Romano and some White Sox Prospects

Sal Romano is an 18 year old pitcher that was drafted in the 23rd round by the Reds in 2011. This was his first year in the minors and he started in the Pioneer League and pitched pretty well (3.15 FIP, 3.97 SIERA). His K/BB is unimpressive (especially his mediocre strikeout rate), but he got a ton of ground-balls and gave up just 1 homer in 59.1 innings.

The right-handed pitcher sits at 89-92 MPH with a very high leg kick and a slight turn. One suspects that it gives him some deception, but he also misses more glove side, which one is likely to blame on delivery repetition. He can throw it inside to righties, and this makes his average fastball a bit more dangerous. The fastball also isn't straight, as it has some tail and perhaps a little cut.
His change is without a ton of movement but has good speed differential and a little bit of drop. It is his favorite pitch against lefties.

He also has a curve that breaks away from right-handed hitters. He threw both for strikes, but also had the tendency to hang them. At this level, I would rather this be the case than the absolute inability to throw it for strikes. So even though his fastball is mediocre to average, he does have two off-speed pitches that he can command and throw for strikes.

Micah Johnson was the White Sox 9th round pick in 2012. He is a left-handed hitter that plays 2nd base. When I watched him, he really struggled with breaking pitches. He had a very mediocre career at the University of Indiana, and was actually horrible in his final year. In the Pioneer League, he stole 19 bases (caught 6 times, and had a speed score of 7.7, meaning he is pretty fast). With the bat, his strikeout rate was a little high (just over 23%, something you would expect if he is struggling with breaking pitches), but had a good walk rate (13.5%) and hit about league average overall (108 wRC +)

Justin Jirschele was an undrafted free agent, and didn't hit real well and seems to have no power. However, he had a nice K/BB and he seems to play a solid 2nd base (he plays shortstop as well, but I just him play 2nd). Left-handed hitter with average to below average speed (I clocked him at 4.23 to first).

Brandon Brennan was a 4th round pick by the White Sox out of community college. He is a RHP with a pretty clean delivery, although perhaps a rather unorthodox arm action. He has a 91-93 MPH fastball that he can tail glove side
with a pretty hard sweeping slider. He doesn't have good control of the slider but it is probably his best pitch. It looks like he has a change as well, but it doesn't have great movement. Overall, he can move the ball from his arm side to his glove side with okay to average command. He doesn't have great velocity, but it is adequate.You can see why he was a 4th round pick. There is some talent and projection there, but he isn't going to be great.

Times to First: Part 12

1. Anthony Rizzo (Cubs): 4.31

2. Matt Mcbride (Rockies): 4.55

3. Ben McMahan (Brewers A): 4.16

4. Zach Vincej (Reds Rookie): 4.26

5. Ethan Chapman (Royals Rookie): 4.19

6. Adalberto Mondesi (Royals Rookie): 4.10

7. Brent Tanner (White Sox Rookie): 4.34

8. Yoandy Barroso (White Sox Rookie): 4.37

9. Rainier Bello (Royals Rookie): 4.26

10. Diego Goris (Royals Rookie): 4.18

11. Daniel Nava (Red Sox): 4.43

12. Pedro Ciriaco (Red Sox): 4.01

13. Ryan Roberts (Rays): 4.28

14. Ryan Flaherty (Orioles): 4.27

15. Darwin Barney (Cubs): 4.17

16. Casey Kotchman (Indians): 4.62

17. Orlando Hudson (White Sox): 4.24

18. Cody Ross (Red Sox): 4.34

19. Jose Reyes (Marlins): 10.93 (on a triple)

20. Drew Stubbs (Reds): 4.14

So here are the times we have in total:

Scouting Reports on Trayce Thompson, Reid, and Shirek

Ryan Reid has been in the Rays system since being drafted in the 7th round in 2006. At 27 years old, he isn't really a prospect, but was one of the better pitchers in the International League (AAA) this season with a 3.69 FIP and a nice strikeout rate. He is a well undersized right-hander at 5-11, which is not only another reason he is not a real prospect and hasn't made the Majors as of yet, but is a reason why he has been basically a reliever his whole minor league career (with an occasional start). His fastball is 91-93 MPH (dropped down to 89 MPH) with tail (nothing real straight). His secondary pitch is a 85-87 MPH slider with good drop but was struggling with control. It looks like a legitimate swing and miss pitch.The lack of a 3rd pitch also keeps him in the bullpen.

Charles Shirek of the White Sox AAA (age 26, drafted in the 23rd round in 2007) is 6-3 but is not very big overall (listed weight of 205 doesn't look accurate). He sits at about 91-92 (gets as low as 89 and as high as 93) MPH with a little arm side tail. I've seen reports of a cutter, but I didn't see it when I watched him pitch. His velocity has also improved in the minors, which probably explains why he was drafted so low. He also throws a 83-85 MPH change that doesn't move a whole lot. It seems to be more of a "show me" pitch than something he can actually get hitters out with. His better off-speed pitch is 86-87 MPH slider that has better movement. It occasionally has two plane break, and breaks differently than many sliders as it just jolts down a lot. He didn't miss a lot of bats in his introduction to AAA (16.8 K%), but had a solid year anyway (a SIERA .44 points better than league average and a FIP .16 better than league average). His best attribute was getting ground-balls, which he did over 51% of the time, holding opposing hitters to an OPS of .025 lower than league average.

Unlike Reid and Shirek, Trayce Thompson is a legitimate prospect at age 21. Drafted in the 2nd round by the White Sox in 2009, Thompson made his AAA debut late this year after a short stint in AA that followed a 109 wOBA +, 122 OPS + performance in A+ in over 100 games. In A-ball in 2011, he was about the same with the bat (106 wOBA+ and 115 OPS +). He has a pretty solid looking swing that is pretty flat. His stance is slightly strange with a downward crouch that almost looks uncomfortable, but it doesn't matter because he has a quick bat and gets on pitches quickly. The plate discipline could use some work, but he has had solid walk rates throughout the minors. It looks like he can run as well, although I didn't get much of a read on him defensively. He was playing left field when I saw him (which was strangely the only game in his professional career that he has played left), but has played most center in his minor league career. His hitting numbers have been good and he has been young for the level, but the numbers are not overwhelming and his current size (he should add some more weight) won't allow him to hit for a ton of power in the Majors (although he has had no problems getting past 20 homers a year). This makes whether or not he can play center really important, even though he appears to be a good enough hitter that he should be a solid MLB player if he plays a corner position well.

Scouting Reports on Santo Manzinillo and Charles Leesman

Santo Manzinillo is a right handed reliever in Brewers system that is pitching for their Class A team but is already on the 40 man roster. Thanks to arm issues and a car accident has taken a step back in his development. In a small sample size across 3 levels this year he really struggled. However, he can throw a fastball at 97 MPH (reports I have seen say anywhere from 95-100, but he averaged about 97 when I saw him). The best part is that it is not straight. When you hear people talk about a fastball that has "life", Manzinillo's fastball is a great example.

He didn't have great control over the slider, but it is something he seemed to have confidence in as he threw it several times. It has very nice downward movement and late break. He can miss bats, Manzinillo has elite reliever stuff. The command needs work, but it is workable, he isn't uncontrollably wild. He has catching up to do, but if he stays healthy, he could be in the big leagues rather soon because the Brewers won't want to keep that stuff in the minors.

Charles Leesman was an 11th round pick in 2008 by the White Sox (after being picked in the 40th round by the Twins in 2005). This year, he was one of the top statistical starting pitchers in the AAA International League with a  3.71 FIP and 4.14 SIERA (the SIERA is actually exactly league average). He was ranked as the 11th best prospect in the (bad) Chicago White Sox system by Fangraphs' Marc Hulet, who cited his ground-ball rate.His ground-ball rate took a big dip from AA-AAA but was still solid and roughly 7% better than average. He walked a few too many batters but had a respectable, although below league average, strikeout rate.

The lefty comes over the top while simultaneously throwing 3/4. It is almost painful to watch, but it clearly gives him some deception.
The velocity sits at 87-90 (touched 91 a couple of times) with a little downward movement. It cuts when it is in the high or middle parts of the plate. In fact, it is basically a cutter, he doesn't throw anything that looks like a 4-seamer. It stayed in the middle of the plate a few times and I counted at least 3 times where AAA hitters hit the ball relatively hard (in the 4 inning outing I watched) where a good MLB hitter would have taken him out of the park.
His secondary option is a 76-78 MPH change. It breaks like a poor man's slider and got up to 80-82 (which might have actually been a slider, it was certainly better at this velocity range, but there were only 4 or 5 of them). His command of it was poor, sometimes it would sit in the middle of the plate and sometimes it would be way off. The cutter was his main pitch though.
So from a scouting perspective, you are looking at a guy with below average velocity, command, and secondary offerings. The positive statistics may just be a reflection of an ability to deceive lesser hitters. On the flip side, he may be able to miss the good part of the bat with his cutter and deceive better hitters in short spurts. Either way, I don't see him as an impact guy and he is probably not someone I would use in the Majors (unless I was a rebuilding team looking for warm bodies to look at).

Leesman's veteran teammate Deunte Heath is a right-handed reliever that was throwing about 90-91 MPH with a little bit of movement (he got up to 93 and more straight, but he could throw it down). His command wasn't sharp in the outing I saw him. He throws a breaking ball at 75-79 MPH that he can use to get grounders or possibly some whiffs when he throws it in the dirt (it is a weak pitch when thrown for strikes). The 27 year old has good size and was very good in AAA this year, with a FIP and SIERA both under 3.00.

Notes on Durham Bulls and Charlotte Knights

For no particular reason, I watched the Charlotte Knights (White Sox AAA) and Durham Bulls (Rays AAA) on MiLB.TV (a lot of it has to do with the quality of broadcast they have). I then decided to write a little bit about a few of the players I saw in the game.

Durham Bulls:

Jim Paduch was the right-handed (spot) starter. He was at 91-92 MPH and very hittable. He threw some 89-90 MPH fastballs with a little more movement and sink. His change was inconsistent in movement and location at 82-83 MPH. He mixed in an occasional 73 MPH curveball. Paduch had a lot of grip problems in the game and it made it really hard to make a read on his command/control. He is not a strikeout type guy, but could and probably should be a ground-ball guy. I am not sure why he throws that fastball high at really any time.

Cole Figueroa struggled at 3rd base in the game. He is listed as a 2nd baseman and is usually considered a good defender. He is a little guy that was acquired from Padres in Jason Bartlett trade with a little pop (not really a home run threat, but could hit some line drives and doubles).

Tim Beckham is probably the top prospect on either team. He has speed, athleticism, arm, and can hit the low pitch with some authority.  He hit the ball hard and on a line every time he made contact. His plate discipline is not very good though, and probably the weakest part of his game.

Henry Wrigley has been an interesting player statistically, but had some ugly chases on breaking balls. Both his numbers and his age suggest that he is something like a "mistake" AAAA hitter, and the empirical evidence seems to confirm that.

Leslie Anderson's swing was not pretty and he was chasing just about everything. He was able to make quite a bit of contact, but it was with below average foot speed.

Dane De La Rosa sat at 91-93 MPH with his fastball but didn't have much control of it at all. It is somewhat flat, but goes in on right-handed hitters. His breaking pitch looks like a curve at 81-82 MPH (it is either that or a terrible soft slider). It hangs there and doesn't have great or big break. He threw one good one, and it was the last pitch of his outing.

Charlotte Knights:

Josh Phegley is a former 1st round pick. Of course he doesn't run well, he is a catcher. You can see some power though, as he pounded the ball off the wall when he looked a little fooled on a changeup. There is some swing and miss in his game, but he got a breaking ball from Josh Lueke (who was 93-94 MPH but had no control over his off-speed pitches and was getting hit hard) and pulled it over the fence. Defensively, he didn't look that great, having some problems catching and blocking the breaking ball. His overall receiving skills just do not appear to be very good.

Scott Carroll was the starter for the Knights. The veteran RHP has a 88-91 MPH moving fastball. He has plenty of size at 6-4, so you think he will be able to get on top of the ball. He has a 82 MPH slider, that seems a little softer than its velocity. In other words, it doesn't "bite" hard. He can't really throw it for strikes.While Carroll can get AAA hitters to swing at it, I don't see how he could get MLB hitters out with it with any kind of consistency. He has no real 3rd pitch.

Jhan Marinez hit 95 MPH on his fastball and can locate it low. His command was shaky and he didn't show off a 2nd pitch, but the velocity is fun and he is still young.

Scouting Reports on the Fargo-Moorhead Redhawks

On Thursday August 23rd, I watched the Grand Prairie Airhogs and the Fargo-Moorhead Redhawks of the American Association. Thanks to a previous rain-out I have a ticket for another Grand Prairie game, so I will just put the Fargo-Moorhead scouting report here and write the Grand Prairie one after the second game.

Eric Campbell was the Redhawks' cleanup hitter and played 3rd base. He was in the Mariners organization and played in 58 games with the AA team where he had a .713 OPS before being released. Since joining Fargo-Moorhead, he has been about as good as he was in his 2010 stop with the team (1.013 OPS in 2010, 1.039 OPS this year). When he was with Seattle, I wrote about him here and here. Defensively, he made a bad throw for an error (he really should be a first baseman, although the bat hasn't really played there in affiliated ball, it plays there in Independent ball). Offensively, he hit a ball hard, but he also weakly chopped one as he was hitting grounder softly the end of his bat (usually meaning he was being fooled by breaking balls, as he was in affiliated ball).

Carlos Cota was picked in the 33rd round by the Blue Jays way back in 2002 (he is 31 now). He was with the organization until 2007 but found the transition from A+ (where he had good numbers) to AA (where he was terrible) difficult. He has been with Fargo-Moorhead since 2008, and has a .808 OPS in that time. He has a little bit of pop, but there is too much swing and miss in his game for his size.

The catcher was 24 year old Ryan Delgado. Delgado was drafted in the 32nd round by the Braves in 2010 and put up decent numbers (especially for a catcher) in small sample sizes. He showed off a really good arm behind the plate and I thought he did an okay job blocking the plate for an extremely wild pitcher. It looks like he has some pop in his bat, and is able to go the other way and pull the ball with a little authority. He did take some really ugly swings, and plate discipline seems to be an issue. In 83 games with Fargo, he is hitting .314/.363/540. I really wouldn't be surprised to see him get another shot at affiliated ball.

25 year old Jon Gaston has a little bit of power, especially considering his size (listed at 6-0 220, that might be a little charitable). He did have one really ugly hack to strikeout. He was drafted in the 7th round by the Houston Astros in 2008, and played in 17 games for the White Sox AA this year. He was somewhat of a Lancaster mirage, with an OPS near 1.000 there, and significant regression in AA Corpus Christi (he was actually worse in AA the second year, which lead to the end of his Astro career).

Nic Jackson was the 3 hitter and had 3 hitter type build. He has a bit of a weird stance as far as his hands go and had a big whiff on a high fastball (those two were probably not unrelated). He lacks speed and pull power. He is having a pretty good year for the Redhawks, but is already 32 and hasn't been in affiliated ball since 2007, when he was with the Mets' AA and hit just .209/.280/.396 in 100 plate appearances. He was a one time top 100 prospect according to Baseball America and was picked in the 3rd round in 2000 by the Cubs. He got to AAA but had just a .710 OPS in the hitter friendly PCL.

Zach Penprase is the 27 year old starting shortstop. He was drafted in the 13th round in 2006 by the Phillies but never made it past A ball thanks to an absolutely absent bat. He has an extremely strong arm, and as his minor league numbers suggest, he was not impressive with the bat (other than hitting a 88 MPH fastball hard). Unfortunately, he didn't show off much speed either. He has been with the Redhawks since 2008 and has a .786 OPS (which probably gives you an idea of the competition in the American Association).

The starting pitcher was Paul Burnside, a 25 year old out of the University of Auburn and former 39th round pick by the Chicago Whitesox (2009). He had an impressive stint in A-ball, but was let go earlier this year after 4 awful relief outings in A+. Since joining Fargo, he has a solid ERA but terrible K/BB ratio. As those numbers suggest, he had all kinds of problems throwing strikes and was extremely wild. He was mostly 89-91 MPH, okay for a right-handed starter, but his breaking ball didn't have sharp bite.

Joe Harris is a rather soft tossing lefty that the Redhawks used out of the pen. His breaking ball was decent and he used it often. He has been used exclusively out of the pen, even though some starters have succeeded with that stuff. He was never drafted and I can't find evidence of him playing college ball, so he seems to have appeared from nowhere. He is not small at 6-3, and has a 2.86 ERA out of the pen out of the last 2 years. He walks too many hitters for his stuff at about 3.5 per 9 innings and as expected doesn't strikeout a lot of batters.

Low Level Minor League Notes

Some assorted prospect notes:

Alex Meyer of the Hagerstown Suns has a 95-97 MPH (touched 98 MPH in the Futures game as I watched his start before the Futures game and the Futures game) fastball. It has iffy command and he mixes it with a pretty good looking slider at 87 MPH

Cutter Dysktra on the Suns (the Nationals A affiliate) is listed as a 3rd baseman, but played 2nd when I saw him. He made a very good play defensively. Offensively, his long stint in A + last year was horrible, but he has been better (at least as far as K/BB is concerned) in the lower level. Matt Skole leads the league in walks and homers. He has an uppercut type swing, and a fly-ball hitter type swing.

The Tri-City Dust Devils (Colorado Rockies A-) closer Seth Willoughby is a skinny right hander with some swing and miss stuff. He has a good looking straight fastball, along with a moving fastball, and a curveball he can throw for strikes. At this point, he has thrown just 9 innings so it is hard to draw any conclusions, but it has been going well for him. 

Drew Bowlin of the San Jose Giants is a little too old for the level and has just a 90 MPH fastball as a righty reliever. He has struggled so far this year, with a lot of strikeouts, but too many walks and a high ERA. 

Richard Castillo of the AA Springfield Cardinals has a weird arm angle as a right-handed starter. He is pretty short and it doesn't look like he throws very hard. He has a soft moving fastball that tails low and in to righties. This is definitely his feature pitch and he was getting quite a bit of grounders.

Staten Island Yankees:
Saxton Butler is a big first baseman, so it is hard to get excited about him, but he has some really good pull power. He has a good looking swing and can go the other way with authority too.
Fu-Lin Kuo has a good approach and good long at-bats. He has a really good looking contact tool but nothing to suggest he will hit for much power.

Santos Rodriguez is a tall (6-5) lanky (180 pounds) left handed reliever for the Birmingham Barons (the AA of the White Sox). He hits 94-96 MPH on the gun, but even with his frame, at 24 he probably won't gain anymore velocity. He has been a fly-ball pitcher for a lot of his career with some pretty good K ratios (with perhaps too many walks).


Ryan Acosta of the Dodgers system (Rancho Cucamonga Quakes) has a curveball that he can throw for strikes. Despite an inconsistent delivery, he can throw 91-94 MPH as a right handed reliever. Acosta also has a changeup that he throws a lot. It has some break, but he can't really throw it for strikes. This didn't stop him from having confidence in it. This probably didn't help his control problems. He has sort of a starter's repertoire if he can gain command. It looks like he can miss bats.


Peter Hissey of the Portland Sea Dogs (Red Sox organization) is a lefty with a weak uppercut swing. His line drive rate is above league average, but his ISO is well below league average. He is an efficient base stealer but doesn't walk a ton.

Michael Foltynewicz is a former 1st round pick by the Astros currently playing for the Lexington Legends. He has a 94-97 MPH fastball, with pretty good control/command. He doesn't really have a great breaking pitch but has a decent curve that he can throw for strikes. The fastball is his best pitch, as he can locate it low or high. That pitch is why he was a first round pick. He gets some whiffs but doesn't appear to be a real strikeout pitcher (which matches with his numbers). 
Mike Kvasnicka switch hitting catcher with a huge swing. He whiffs a lot and couldn't catch up to a plus fastball. Over the last two years, a 197 game period at Lexington, he is slugging just .368.

Nationals sign Edwin Jackson

The Washington Nationals have signed starting pitcher Edwin Jackson to a 1 year 10 million dollar deal. According to Fangraphs, Jackson has averaged a WAR of 3.73 over the last 3 years. Jackson is usually known for being pretty inconsistent, but that seems to be a misnomer when looking at key pitching stats, as his last 3 WARs have been 3.6, 3.8, 3.8, with FIP - of 96, 91, 89, with a little more variance of Adjusted PEs of 1.14, .09, and 1.22. With Jackson, he has pitched in so many different places that we should know what kind of pitcher he is without even using ballpark adjusted metrics. He has done an okay job keeping the ball in the ballpark in his career with a .99 HR/9IP rate. He has really improved his groundball rate over the last two years, with 1.55 and 1.4 GB/FB ratios in 2010 and 2011 respectively. He throws just a touch under 95 on his fastball on average, and has had very nice walk rates over the last 3 years. His SIERAs have been funky over the last 3 years, disagreeing with his FIPs big time. This is just a 1 year deal, so its not a long term risk. 10 million dollars actually seems slightly low according to Fangraphs WAR, and this seems to be a pretty poor deal for Jackson. This is not only a great deal for the Nationals, but it makes me wonder why 29 other teams weren't making this offer.

Australian Baseball and Minor League Pitching Metric

As the Australian Baseball League 2011 season wraps up, I thought it made sense to come up with a pitching metric to evaluate pitchers pitching in the league. Since we didn't come up with a reliable A and AA pitching metric, I filled out the rest of the spreadsheet with minor league pitchers (from the White Sox system) who had pitched at all 3 levels.

The ABL players that have pitched in A-ball had an average ERA of 3.39 in the ABL. Those same pitchers have a 3.51 ERA in A-ball, a difference of .12. Those pitchers averaged a 1.19 WHIP in A-ball and 1.16 in the ABL, a .03 difference. So there is a slight upgrade from the ABL to A-ball, but the difference is very small, so no one will judge you if you just use the A-ball metric we are about to create and use it on ABL players.
The pitchers on the list that pitched in AA had a 3.16 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in A, and a 3.7 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in AA (a .54 ERA difference and .11 WHIP difference). The pitchers that pitched in AAA had a 3.43 ERA and 1.233 WHIP in AA, and 4.32 ERA and 1.37 WHIP (a .83 ERA difference and .137 WHIP difference).

White Sox trade Jason Frasor

The White Sox traded Jason Frasor to the Blue Jays for Myles Jaye and Daniel Webb.

Frasor will make 3.75 million in 2012, and had a 1 WAR in 2011. Over the last 3 years, he has a WAR average of 1.13, which would be a WASP of 3319, slightly above the Halladay Standard. He had a -1.03 PE (-.54 Adjusted PE) in 2011, with a career PE of -.978 (-.975 Adjusted PE). His FIP - was 100, which is about league average in 2011. SIERA liked him quite a bit more, at a 3.56, but for just the second time in his career, he gave up more flyballs than groundballs. This could explain why his BABIP was slightly higher than usual (.304 against a .288). He also gave up the most HR/9IP since 2006, a further sign of some kind of regression. It is worth noting, however, that he pitched well if the BlueJays in the first half, but pitched poorly (a 0 WAR) with the White Sox after being traded at the deadline. For whatever its worth, the Bill James projections have him at a 3.69 FIP for 2012.

Jaye has spent 1 short season in rookie ball, making 9 starts in 13 appearances after being drafted in the 17th round. There he had a -1.63 PE, had a decent walk rate but gave up 1.2 HR/9IP.

Daniel Webb has only pitched in A-ball, and has pitched mostly as a starter. He has been pretty bad, with a PE of 3.37. He has kept the ball in the ballpark and hasn't walked too many batters, but still has a BAA of over .280, despite having a reasonable BABIP. He was a hitter in college at Illinois, and had a .903 OPS, which would translate to a .653 OPS in the MLB according to our college metric. So it seems it was the right choice to change him to a pitcher, but it is not like that experiment is going real well either.

So the White Sox get two pretty inconsequential minor leaguers without too much promise (Jaye is certainly better than Webb though), while the Blue Jays get a slightly overpaid apparently regressing reliever. I guess the White Sox have a small advantage in this trade because they cut payroll, but I don't like this trade for either team really (although if Frasor returns to form, it could be advantage Blue Jays). 

Grading the Carlos Quentin trade

The WhiteSox traded Carlos Quentin to the Padres for pitchers Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez.

Quentin had a 3.2 WAR in 2011, but had an even 0 WAR over 2009-2010. The difference was his defense, as he had a 2.4 O-WAR in both 2010 and 2011. However, his D-WAR was -2.8 in 2009-2010, but .8 in 2011. He simply played much better in the field in 2011, with a horrible .959 fielding percentage in 2010, but a .994 fielding percentage in 2011. However, his range factor stayed about the same, and it is well below average. His career D-WAR is -.7, and he should still be considered a below average fielder. Offensively, Quentin has a .346 OBP, 116 OPS +, and 1.874 O4S. He has pretty monster power, with a .238 ISO, and a good Secondary Average of .344. In the end he is a pretty good offensive player, with 5.8 runs created per game and a .581 Offensive Winning Percentage. He homers 5% percent of the time, about double the average player, and is an above average walker and extra base hitter. However, due to a poor Pit/PA, he has a PPS that is not very good at 86.98.

Castro spent 2011 split between AAA and AA. His 8 career AAA starts in the PCL have been extremely poor, but at 36 innings, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to judge him by that alone. As a starter n AA, 39 starts, he has a PE of -.343, which translates to about a 3.23 PE in the Majors. This of course would be horrible, so Castro can't be expected to contribute in 2012. He could, of course, improve and be part of the future, but there isn't a lot to suggest he will, and he doesn't offer any kind of immediate impact. He does keep the ball in the ballpark and has a good K/BB ratio.

Hernandez has just 4 AAA starts, and he struggled there as well, his 8 AA starts were better, but not a big enough sample size. Overall in his minor league career, he has split between both a starter and a reliever. In that time he has a PE of -.55, nothing impressive. However, he has had a FIP lower than his ERA in every stop he has made. Therefore, it makes some sense to cut him some slack and adjust his PE to about -.9. This probably projects to about a 2.4 PE, which isn't good as a starter or a reliever. He doesn't hardly walk anyone, and doesn't give up very many homers, so there is always that for the future, but it doesn't seem like Hernandez will have a 2012 impact.

Of course, the WhiteSox are in rebuilding mode, so as it is quite obvious the Padres win the trade for 2012, that really doesn't matter to Kenny Williams. With that said, I think that you would want to get a little bit more for the type of player Quentin is. There is the injury and defensive concerns with Quentin, but the Padres definitely need the bat.

Lastings Milledge goes to Japan

The Yakult Swallows of Japan have signed Lastings Milledge to a $570,000 (converted to American currency) dollar contract. The average NPB salary is $420,000. According to Gen Sueyoshi (you can see the post here: http://yakyubaka.com/npb-salaries/2011-yakult-swallows-salary-report/ and follow him on twitter @gwynar), the Swallows had a payroll of 2491.1 Million Yen, or 32 million dollars in 2011. The NPB season is 144 games, so a "replacement team" (0 WAR players would win 32% of their games according to the official WAR calculus) would win 46 games. To win the Central League (the league that Yakult belongs) in 2011, Chunichi won 75 games. That seems like a goal-line, so a team expecting to win their league needs 29 Wins Above Replacement. So the Swallows have 32 million dollars to get those 29 Wins, so they can spend 1.1 million dollars per WAR. Therefore, at a salary of 570k, Milledge would need about a .5 WAR. So we will use Milledge's MLB statistics (along with his 2011 AAA numbers) and the metrics we have designed for NPB baseball to project Millddge's success. Milledge is a horrible defender, earning a -3.3 D-WAR in 6 seasons, or -.55 D-WAR a year. Depending on whether you trust BaseballProjection or BaseballInfoSolutions, Milledge cost his team 44 or 10 runs more than an average fielder in his career. With the bat, Milledge had a .328 OBP, .723 OPS, .94 PPG, 2.96 PAPP. This translates to a .361 OBP, .789 OPS, 1.43 PPG, 2.22 PAPP according to our Japanese metric. This is a 2.68 Simple WAR, and even with subtracting his -.55 D-WAR, you still get a 2.13 WAR, well worth the 570k the Swallows will give him. In 2011, he spent basically the whole year in AAA. He had a .364 OBP and .805 OPS there. Converted to Major League Statistics, this is a .318 OBP and .713 OPS, pretty replacement level, but it is a .351 OBP and .779 OPS projection for the NPB. This is pretty similar to what his MLB numbers stated. All in all, expect Milledge to make a pretty nice impact offensively in the NPB and turn out to be a nice signing for the Swallows.

Does Pitches per Plate Appearance tell us anything about a pitcher?

I wanted to see if pitcher's pitches per plate appearance had any bearing on whether a pitcher is successful or not. I am dividing it up between starters and relievers. For starters, I am using all the pitchers in the AL Central that had at least 5 starts and 2 or less relief appearances. Click on the Photo to enlarge and see the results.

 

Verlander, the best pitcher on the list and the Cy Young winner in 2011, was over 4 pitches per plate appearance and helped carry the over 4 pitchers to a -.059 average. Personally, 12 pitchers got better when they threw more pitches per plate appearance, 8 got worse, and 10 had no real correlation. There are a couple ways to take this. The more aggressive would be to say that pitching to contact is not a desired approach and that is better to go for the strikeout even if it takes more pitches. The more conservative would be to say that there doesn't seem to be any real relationship between pitches per plate appearance and success (more specifically, PE, which awards strikeouts, measuring WHIP or FIP may yield a different result). The 10 pitchers that threw less than 3.7 Pit/PA on average had a horrible PE average of 3.746. If you only have 3 and half pitches per plate appearance it is hard to have any strikeouts, but that wouldn't hurt your PE as much if you kept a low ERA, WHIP, and BAA. If your PE is almost 4, you are giving up a bunch of runs and hits. So it certainly seems, for starters, that there is a positive correlation between pitches per plate appearance and success. This leads to an interesting question, is a high Pit/PA for a hitter bad? The answer seems to be no. I wrote an article on here where I showed that all the top hitters in the game, beside Miguel Cabrera, had an above average Pit/PA. So perhaps paradoxical, the best pitchers and the best hitters have high Pit/PA. In Part 2, I will do relievers and see if we get the same result.

Sergio Santos-Nestor Molina Trade

The White Sox have traded Sergio Santos to the Blue Jays for Nestor Molina


Sergio Santos has a 2.9 WAR in 2 seasons (115 relief innings), 1.45 WAR a season. This is worth 4.35 million according to the Halladay Standard. Santos has a rather interesting contract situation, he will make 1 million in 2012, 2.75 million in 2013, and 3.75 million in 2014. That is not terribly strange, but him having 3 option years afterward of 6 million, 8 million, and 8.75 million. One would think if Santos stays a relief pitcher, the first option should be declined. However, the first 3 years seem to be a bargain. In his 2 years in the Majors, he has a -4.82 PE, and -5.14 PE. This is obviously quality end of the bullpen stuff. He has a career SIERA of 2.81 and a FIP - of 70, putting him in pretty elite territory (these numbers aren't quite as good as Papelbon or Rivera, but much better than Madson). His TR is also a really good 11.05, further solidifying him as a very good reliever (at a very affordable price).

Nestor Molina has just 5 starts in AA, but has a -2.96 PE in his minor league career, coming mainly out of the bullpen. He walks just 1.4 BB/9IP, and gives up just .4 HR/9IP. Other than that, there isn't much to say, Molina is a pretty good prospect. However, it seems pretty obvious that the Blue Jays won this trade. Molina is not even established in AA yet, while Santos is a very accomplished Major League reliever that is underpaid.