Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Sergio Santos-Nestor Molina Trade

The White Sox have traded Sergio Santos to the Blue Jays for Nestor Molina

Sergio Santos has a 2.9 WAR in 2 seasons (115 relief innings), 1.45 WAR a season. This is worth 4.35 million according to the Halladay Standard. Santos has a rather interesting contract situation, he will make 1 million in 2012, 2.75 million in 2013, and 3.75 million in 2014. That is not terribly strange, but him having 3 option years afterward of 6 million, 8 million, and 8.75 million. One would think if Santos stays a relief pitcher, the first option should be declined. However, the first 3 years seem to be a bargain. In his 2 years in the Majors, he has a -4.82 PE, and -5.14 PE. This is obviously quality end of the bullpen stuff. He has a career SIERA of 2.81 and a FIP - of 70, putting him in pretty elite territory (these numbers aren't quite as good as Papelbon or Rivera, but much better than Madson). His TR is also a really good 11.05, further solidifying him as a very good reliever (at a very affordable price).

Nestor Molina has just 5 starts in AA, but has a -2.96 PE in his minor league career, coming mainly out of the bullpen. He walks just 1.4 BB/9IP, and gives up just .4 HR/9IP. Other than that, there isn't much to say, Molina is a pretty good prospect. However, it seems pretty obvious that the Blue Jays won this trade. Molina is not even established in AA yet, while Santos is a very accomplished Major League reliever that is underpaid.

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