Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Orioles sign Endy Chavez

The Orioles continue to grab all the fringe players for the Texas Rangers as they signed Endy Chavez to a 1 year 1.5 million dolllar deal. Chavez had a .7 WAR with Texas in 2011, which would be a decent 2143 WASP with his new contract. So according to his 2011 performance, this is a good deal for the Orioles, but can they expect this performance again? It is hard to compare his 2011 season with previous seasons, because he suffered a pretty devastating knee injury and didn't even play in 2010. Because of this, I will operate under the assumption that his pre-2011 statistics are useless in predictive terms. In 2011, Chavez had a 1.718 O4S, 96 OPS +, and .184 Secondary Average. Despite a .321 BABIP, he had a 4.4 Runs Created and a .483 Offensive Winning Percentage. Assuming BABIP stabilizes at .300, expect most of those numbers to drop some, but not massively. Even with the hitter friendly Ballpark in Arlington, he was a below average home run hitter with a significantly low walk rate. He is a groundball hitter that doesn't hit many line drives and had a poor PPS of 82.87. He had a 0 D-WAR in 2011, despite once being a very good defender. If Chavez is able to repeat his 2011 season, then this is a pretty good deal for the Orioles. However, I don't think this is very likely.

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