Tuesday, December 13, 2011

The Casey McGehee trade

The Brewers traded Casey McGehee to the Pirates for Jose Veras.

Casey McGehee is coming off a terrible season where he had a .280 OBP and 69 OPS +. He had a -1 WAR, despite having a 3 WAR in 2011. He is projected (by MLB Trade Rumors) to make 3.1 million dollars in 2011, meaning he needs to have a WAR over 1 (or perhaps more for the low payroll Pirates). In 2011, he had a disastrous .223 BABIP, obviously a huge reason for his poor season. Overall, McGehee has a .320 OBP, 1.706 O4S, and 99 OPS +. These are pretty average, as well as his 4.5 Runs Created Per Game with a .494 Offensive Winning Percentage. His Secondary Average is .242, and his ISO is .161. These are about average numbers, the only thing that concerns me offensively is that he hit more groundballs in 2011 and less line drives. Maybe that is an anomaly, but this could partially explain the BABIP. Defensively, he isn't very good, with a -.2 D-WAR in his career, and a below average range factor and fielding percentage in 2011.

Jose Veras has been a career reliever, with a .7 WAR, with a .23 WAR average over the last 3 years, worth about $700,000. He had a PE of -2.95 in 2011, and an adjusted PE of -3.25. This is not quite with the elite relievers of the game, Veras is a very solid one. The ball is rarely hit hard off him with a career .257 BABIP, but he gives up about 1 HR/9IP and more flyballs than groundballs. He has a FIP - of 103, and a SIERA of 3.83. He is a decent reliever, but it is hard to argue that he is worth a decent position player. This is why I give the edge to the Pirates on this trade, as long as Casey McGehee bounces back in 2012.

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