Thursday, December 22, 2011

The Royals sign Jose Mijares

The Royals signed reliever Jose Mijares to a 1 year $925,000 deal. He had a -.1 WAR in 2011, but a .77 WAR average over the past 3 years. This would be a good 1201 WASP. In his career, he has a PE of .32 and Adjusted PE of 1.29, as a reliever, which isn't very good. In 2011, it was a terrible 3.49, with an Adjusted PE of 3.78. Even more alarming, he walked as many batters as he struck out. His career FIP - is 100, but his 2011 was 122, and he had previously never had a SIERA of more than 3.71, but had an alarming 5.28 in 2011. The only real positive thing you can say about Mijares 2011 season was that he only gave up .73 HR/9IP. He gives up more flyballs than groundballs, but has average overall career numbers. Before 2011, he was above average, but he has only thrown 153.2 career innings. It could be the simple case of hitters figuring him out, which would mean that the Royals are in trouble. The biggest difference I can find is his difference in walks. He never had a walk rate close to that previously, so there were obviously control problems in 2011. It is hard to predict control and walk rates, but he did strikeout less batters and he threw far less strikes (less than 60% strikes in 2011). This has all the symptoms of either regression or lack of health. Is this something that is going to repeat in 2011? If it does, then the Royals basically flushed a million dollars down the toilet. If it doesn't, then I think this is a decent little move for the Royals.

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