Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Casey Blake signs with the Rockies

The Colorado Rockies have signed Casey Blake to a one year 2 million dollar deal.  Casey Blake had a .6 WAR in 2011 (which would be a WASP of 3333), with a WAR average of 3.23 over the past 3 years. This includes his 5.9 2009 WAR his career best both offensively and defensively. It is not surprising that 2009 also included his best fullseason BABIP as well. So we have to put some skepticism into his 2009 O-WAR (4.0), and it makes sense to just take his average D-WAR (.26, but 1.1 over the last 3 years). So how do we project him offensively? In 30 games at Coors Field (Colorado's stadium), he has a .368 OBP and .999 OPS, 2.48 PAPP, 1.47 PPG (a 3.85 Simple WAR). However, we can certainly argue that this is a short sample size and he won't be facing most of those pitchers because they will now be his teammates. In the past 3 years, he has a .342 OBP, 108 OPS + (.767 OPS), 2.85 PAPP, and 1.1 PPG, a 1.28 Simple WAR. If we average his career WAR with his WAR over the last 3 years along with his Coors numbers and Simple WAR over the last 3 years (along with his WAR last year), we get a 2.16 WAR, worth over 6 million dollars. He has a career offensive winning percentage of .510 with 5 Runs Created per Game. His Secondary Average is .277 and his ISO is .178. He is an above average home run hitter (which should serve him well at Coors), along with an average walker, and sees a whopping 4.18 Pitches Per Plate Appearance, giving him a 100.52 PPS. Free Agency can be a tricky way to build a team as most big name players are massively overvalued, however, there are always good deals out there. This is one of them, I really like this deal for the Rockies.

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