A Look at the Swings of the University of Texas' Hitters

Similar to my look at the deliveries of the pitchers from the University of Texas, the following is a GIF look at the Longhorn hitters' swings.

Brooks Marlow: Junior

Zane Gurwitz: Freshman

Andy McGuire: Freshman

Mark Payton: Senior

Collin Shaw: Junior

Shaw had a rough swing on an outside 90 MPH fastball, but seems to have a pretty short stroke with an ability to make contact. It doesn't appear that he is a power hitter. 

Tres Barrera: Freshman

Good athleticism defensively at first base, but was jammed by inside pitches from a RHP (I think the GIF shows that his swing is a little long). 

Bret Boswell: Freshman

He had his problems at shortstop, perhaps raising questions about his hands, but the range is there and he has an easy plus arm. He had a bad jump on the bases, but seemed to have a good eye with the ability to make good contact.

CJ Hinojosa: Sophomore

Paco Rodriguez and the 82nd Overall Pick

Paco Rodriguez was drafted by the Dodgers in the 2nd round out of Florida as a left-handed reliever in 2012, and quickly became the first player in the 2012 draft to make the Majors, appearing in games before the season ended. He also made the team out of spring training meaning that he currently has 32 big league innings versus just 19.2 minor league innings. So far in the big leagues, he has been effective, with a high strikeout rate, low home run rate, but a high walk rate. Rodriguez has been used somewhat in the left-handed specialist role, with a 52% platoon advantage, which isn't quite Rapada or Choate like, but similar to Boone Logan.

Justin Hampson and John Parrish provide the best release point comparisons, neither big names obviously, but guys who had some success in the big leagues. Hampson had big platoon splits, while Parrish didn't. Paco also throws slightly harder than either of him, though his fastball averages below 90 MPH. Perhaps because of this, Paco is a pretty extreme low ball pitcher:

That graph also shows that he is a glove side pitcher for the most part, with a fastball that is pretty straight up, and the change isn't used a lot. His most effective pitch by far has been the curveball, while his fastball has had some issues, playing well below league average. I think this shows in his swinging strikes versus contact average locations (with fastball averages included as well)

Paco is the odd pitcher that actually gets more whiffs when he throws the fastball down than up. While MLBAM tags insist he doesn't really throw a sinker, the Brooks Baseball tags have him throwing a sinker the majority of the time, which makes sense to me based on the locations. The more he works glove side, and the more he works low, the better he pitches, at least that is how it has been so far.

Because of his fastball velocity, and apparent inability to start, Paco's ceiling is probably what we are seeing right now, effective but not dominant pitching out of the bullpen facing mostly left-handers. Out of the 2012 2nd round of the draft, only he and Alex Wood have even reached AA or higher (both of them have made the Majors obviously). So while there is no high ceiling for Paco, there is the floor that is hard to dispute with. Out of the Dodgers 56 all time 2nd round picks, Paco is already the 12th best according to rWAR, and that is if you include Chase Utley, who didn't sign and Lee Lacy, the second best WAR, who had the majority of his success elsewhere. The average WAR for the Dodgers 2nd round picks is 2.28 and the average rWAR of players picked 82nd overall is 1.09, including Phil Nevin, who didn't sign. Paco, barring some kind of injury, should blow right past this. This year's 82nd overall pick is a pitcher that looks like he will be a reliever, didn't start pitching until the last year, and only throws 90 MPH.

In the end, you need high ceiling guys, you can't draft all LOOGY's every year and build a team, and you have to find cheap controllable super stars to succeed as well, and the best way is via the draft. At the same time, when evaluating draft picks, especially beyond the first few picks, you have to take in consideration not only the odds of making the Majors and contributing as well, but also the amount of time it takes in the minors for a player to develop. Drafting guys that appear to be very close doesn't always work out (Marcus Stroman and Danny Hultzen seem to be examples of guys that were already expected to be up in the Majors but aren't), but when it does like with Rodriguez, I don't think you can knock the Dodgers for taking a player that can contribute on their roster six more years before free agency.

Kentucky and Mississipi Draft Notes: Mayers, Grundy, and Bailey

Here are notes on three of the pitchers that were drafted in the 2013 MLB draft from the Universities of Mississippi and Kentucky based on the SEC network broadcast gun in a SEC tournament matchup.

Mike Mayers is a right-handed pitcher drafted by the Cardinals in the 3rd round (93th overall) out of Ole Miss. He has two successful years as a starter, with basically identical seasons in 2012-2013.

Fastball with armside tail that he can sink: 87-93 MPH, 89.5 MPH.

As far as breaking balls and off-speed pitches, he threw pitches from anywhere from 76 to 82 MPH. It appeared to me that he had 3 different pitches besides his fastball, with a change that seemed to be harder than the other pitches (about 80-82 MPH), a slider that seemed to be a tick slower (78-80 MPH), and a curveball that was a little slower. The movement did appear to be different, but one could make the argument that the slider just got somewhat slurvy at times. Without looking at grips or interviewing the pitcher, I don't know how to be sure.

Jerad Grundy is a short senior lefty picked in the 10th round by the Oakland Athletics (311st overall). He was taken by the Twins in the 27th round in 2012, and the Rangers in the 46th round out of high school in 2009. He originally went to the University of Miami, but only threw 17.2 innings and spent the next year at Heartland Community College before two years at Kentucky. He wasn't a strikeout pitcher, but lowered his walk rate in his senior year (though he did see a home run rate increase).

Grundy was a little more difficult to classify. He maxed out at 88 MPH, and probably threw more glove side than arm side. The only real off-speed pitch he showed was a changeup he threw 75-79 MPH (about 76.5 MPH average). He would throw the pitch to both lefties and righties, it wasn't a pitch with usage that was dictated by platoon (the radar gun registered a few 65-67 MPH readings, but I don't really trust those).

Outside of that, he threw pitches from 84 MPH to 88 MPH. It would seem that he had a 2-seam or sinker, along with the harder 4-seam fastball, as he would sit 84-85 MPH at times and 87-88 MPH times.

Tanner Bailey is a 6-7 right-handed reliever that was picked by the Tigers out of Ole Miss in the 32nd round (966th overall). He is a senior that spent his first two years at Texarkana College. Strikeout and walk ratios actually went down from his junior year to his senior year at Mississippi. He has already signed and pitched in a game in the New York Penn League.

Used as a closer by Ole Miss, but very unlikely to have that role in professional baseball as his fastball was 88-91 MPH (89.36 MPH average). He was fastball heavy in his one outing, but he appeared to have 2 different breaking pitches, a slider at 83-84 MPH and a curveball at 81 MPH.

A Look at Reds, Mets, and Giants Draft Picks

In this post, I look at three MLB draft picks using videos available on YouTube. The videos I used to get a look at the specific players are linked under their name, with the name of the user that uploaded the video. Obviously, these are just my observations.

Zach Mathieu 1B: 16th round pick by the Mets

FranklinPierceSports
Video Two
Video Three

A really big guy, Mathieu has a good flat swing. He gets his body in good position when he makes contact, using his size well. Really text book mechanically with body strength to back it up. The swing isn't fast, but smooth.
He's a bat only guy from a place where we can't judge him statistically, but it looks like he has a good contact tool with good bat control. Is the bat speed good enough to take advantage of his strength?

Conner Simonetti LF: 35th round pick by the Reds

MLBDraftables

Definitely doesn't look like a traditional corner outfielder as he isn't very tall, more of the small left-fielder type. He may grow out a little more though as he seems to have pretty broad shoulders.

I am not a big fan of his swing at all. It doesn't appear to be much speed, and he runs out of the box a little bit. So probably not a power guy. Does a lot of rocking and moving in his swing.

Ryder Jones 3B: 2nd round pick by the Giants

MLBDraftables 
Video 2

A pretty large left-handed hitter, Jones can probably can actually add weight. He takes a really big swing. It's ugly, and I don't know that it is fast, but it has good plate coverage. Really ugly hitch to begin the swing that comes with a heavy load, which caused him to overcommitt to early in the videos. Most of the video is from a year ago, but he was really raw. I can't imagine that most of it is fixed, and I have to imagine that it is going to take a lot of work in the Giants system to get him straightened out at the plate.

He looked like a pretty awkward runner as well, and I got him at about a 4.4 to first. So speed isn't one of his tools.

Indiana and Florida State MLB Draft Picks

Here are a few of the players that were drafted from Florida State and Indiana, with notes based on watching them play against each other in the Super-Regionals.

Aaron Slegers Indiana RHP Twins 140 overall

Standing at an insane 6-10, Slegers is about as tall of a prospect that there is.
Not a hard thrower, he was sitting mainly 89-92 MPH, sometimes getting down to 87-88 MPH.  So he has about average velocity now with maybe the potential to add more. The size obviously provides quite the downward plane along with extension. He seemed to keep the fastball low even though it didn't seem to be a sinker, and it can get some arm side run on it occasionally.
His main breaking pitch is a 80-81 MPH baby slider that sometimes breaks down, could be called a slurve. He seems to be able to throw it for strikes, but it isn't a plus pitch.
His change at 84 MPH also isn't plus. It has a little arm side run, but not much overall movement. He wasn't really missing bats and I think that has something to do with his lack of quality breaking pitches.

Dustin Demuth Indiana 3rd base Twins 230 overall

A left-handed hitter with nice size, may grow into body a little more, probably not enough to take him off the position. Unfortunately, I didn't get a read on his defense, and his speed is probably average at best.

He really seemed to struggle with outside fastballs. The bat not real quick, but his swing seems to cover a lot of the zone. He was at least able to turn on up and in and drive it up the middle. Demuth seems to handle all inside pitches well, at least at averagish right-handed velocity. His power is more line drive than home run, but his swing ppercut, probably leading a lot of fly-balls, which is probably not a great thing for him. I am definitely not in love with the swing, and he seemed a little susceptible to pitches that break low an din out of the strike zone.

Ryan Halstead Indiana RHP Twins 770th overall

Another pretty big righty (6-4), but probably not going to grow out much more. He has a short step delivery, where he kicks his leg in the middle of the air, and takes a short stride. He ends up getting pretty low at the time of delivery.

His fastball is 86-90 MPH with a little movement, almost moves like a change, so probably more of a sinker. Very rarely went to any kind of off-speed. When he did, it was a changeup that was really just a the sinker with velocity taken off.

Robert Coles Florida State RHP Mets 836th overall

Coles has a lot of herk and jerk motion in his delivery. It looks like he had some deception, hitters (especially right-handed hitters)seemed to have a hard time seeing his breaking ball.

88-90 MPH fastball, can get 2-seam run and get it to backdoor back into the strike zone. Throws it low and away from lefties.

75-77 MPH soft slider, good horizontal movement, can sometimes get it to the other batters box in the dirt. Seems to be his favorite pitch against righties. Doesn't quite break like a traditional slider but it doesn't appear to be a curveball. It sometimes broke like a change, but the usage made it obvious that it wasn't a change.

Peter Miller Florida State RHP Dodgers 484th overall

Fastball below average velocity wise, 87-90 MPH, lot of arm side run. Miller was throwing it high, not traditional for a moving fastball. His control of it was very spotty.

His breaking pitch was a big curveball at 74-76 MPH. Can throw it for strikes with decent vertical depth. Very little horizontal movement, but usually threw it glove side.

Tool WAA and the 2013 Draft

On another site that I contribute to, I introduced the idea of Tool WAA to measure players statistically in college, and then later ranked draft eligible college players by the measure. Now that the draft is over, I thought it would be interesting to go back and check on which players were drafted, which weren't, and how teams did by Tool WAA. So below is the list of players from the pre-draft list, with their Tool WAAs, along with their (for the ones that were drafted) draft positions and teams they were drafted by:

So 84 eligible players were drafted, just 2 of them in the first round. The average of the ones drafted was -1.64, while the average of the ones not drafted was -3.11. The highest one not to be drafted was Aaron Cornell of Oklahoma State, whose numbers were boosted because his numbers from Eastern Oklahoma were included. He really hasn't been excellent or anything at Oklahoma State. Daniel Palka, the Tool WAA leader, was drafted in the 3rd round by the Diamondbacks. Here is how the average Tool WAAs broke down by round:

Rounds 1-5: -.22
6-10: -1.12
11-20: -2.47
21-30: -1.96
30-40: -4.08

Not surprisingly, it broke down about how you would expect, other than the 30 round plus guys were actually worse (there were only 5 of them) than the non-drafted players.

Here is how it broke down by team, with the vertical side being the actual Tool WAA and the horizontal side being how many players taken:

No surprise that the Padres were the top team. It should be noted that all 3 of the Mets' relevant picks were positive Tool WAA players.  The Astros took 7 players that were eligible, while no one else took 5. Obviously we will have to see how the players turn out and which teams picked the right players to really know, but I really like how the Padres draft on a whole.

MLB Draft Pick Scouting Reports From Virginia and Mississippi State

A few notes on draft picks from the Virginia/Mississippi State Super Regional:

Chad Gioroda of Mississippi State (Blue Jays 265th overall) is a left-handed pitcher with a specialist type arm slot. He will go down and drop sidearm to throw breaking ball. His fastball is about 87-90 MPH with a 77-78 MPH, down to 74 MPH changeup that looked very unimpressive. Just tries to throw it for strikes, really uses it a lot to righties. I don't think this stuff will play real well professionally, especially in the upper levels.

Hunter Renfroe, 13th overall pick in the draft by the Padres, has really good looking size. The bat speed looks plenty quick, along with good plate coverage. He was chasing a lot of off-speed pitches and changeups. Good contact skills though, along with a nice 2 strike foul-off-pitches approach. Saw a ton of breaking balls, and because he chased, he didn't get fastballs, and it was hard to evaluate him. A slightly above average runner, so he has good size/speed combo, but approach needs a lot of work, probably too pull happy on outside pitches. With that said, he did a good job of taking an inside fastball the other way, hitting it with some force.

Reed Gragnani of Virginia was drafted 623rd overall by the Red Sox. A good sized 2nd baseman with good contact skills and bat control. He got a pitch low and out of the zone for a well hit base hit. He took some close breaking balls, but chased with two strikes.

Adam Frazier of Mississippi State is a shortstop picked by the Pirates 179th overall. A small left-handed hitter, he chased some bad breaking balls. Seemed to struggle without the platoon advantage. He does have a good contact tool, but he is going to swing at just about everything and doesn't hit for power.

Kyle Crockett of Virginia is a left-handed pitcher taken by the Indians in the 4th round. His fastball sat at 88-92, touching 93 MPH when I saw him out of the bullpen and his release point is a little out, which seems to help his fastball get some movement, but is probably easy for righties to see. He has had back problems and there is a lot of swing to his delivery. Crockett has a off-speed pitch that he throws to both lefties and righties. He really likes it against righties and tends to hang it and it only gets up to 80-81 MPH.

Vanderbilt and Louisville Drafted Players Scouting Reports

Here are some notes on some of the drafted players from the Louisville and Vanderbilt Super Regional.

Spencer Navin (334th overall, Dodgers) is Vanderbilt's junior catcher. The arm looks good, but the blocking fundamentals weren't solid as he tried to just glove the ball. Good body, pop times of 2 flat,1.91, 1.93, good times. At the plate, he seemed to struggle with good fastballs, especially up high. Wasn't really impressed with anything he brought to the plate offensively, which I guess isn't surprising since he batted 8th.

Chad Green Louisville RHP (336th overall, Tigers). Lanky, could add some weight, but already has good velocity. He showed a 92-94 MPH fastball, with some downward plane and movement. He could really tie up right-handed hitters with it. His main breaking pitch was a 79-81 MPH Curve that he liked but couldn't really get down. He had really poor command of pitch. Green also tended to fall off the mound, which would pull the ball way off the plate glove side. His least frequent used pitch was a 83 MPH change moves arm side. It is a good pitch if he can command it.

Adam Engel CF (573 White Sox). He does not have a great swing plane or swing start, but the bat seems to be pretty quick, can hit the ball up the middle with authority. Does have good plate coverage, but is a little too agressive, doesn't have much power. He does have plus speed, should stick in center.

Jeffery (Jeff) Thompson RHP (94th overall, Tigers)
A really big guy at 6-7, he offers no projection but has really good size. His delivery is a really easy motion. He was down to 89-91 MPH as game went along but started at  92-94 touching 95 MPH with a little armside or downward movement. The fastball was not straight. The first breaking pitch was 83-84 MPH soft moving slider. He throws it glove side, and without the platoon advantage, and it also needs to be tighter and preferably harder. He did show a couple of ones with good vertical depth. He also got down to 80 MPH on what looked like a separte curve. It predictably has better vertical depth.

Ty Young 3rd base (218th overall, Rays). A really good looking defender. The range is clearly there and above average. Made some plays that many MLB 3rd baseman wouldn't make. I am not totally sure on the arm though. A lefty hitter, he comes out of the box a little bit but gets the bat through the zone very quick and can go up the middle.

Coco Johnson OF (332nd overall, Marlins). He looks athletic but does not really plus speed. Good size (finished growing out probably) but a little awkward in the field, not a plus fielder and stuck in a corner, though apparently has an arm (didn't see it, just heard about it). The swing isn't real powerful, but he can pull the ball, flat swing.

Cody Ege LHP (460th overall, Rangers). A reliever with really good numbers.
Has an out release point, somewhat sidearm. 88-89 MPH sweeps arm side.
74-77 MPH soft slider looking pitch. Lefty specialist

Oregon State Draft Prospects: Blue Jays, White Sox, Phillies and Astros

Oregon State had several players drafted in the 2013 MLB draft, and I was able to see 5 of them play on television against Kansas State in the Super Regionals.

Matt Boyd P Blue Jays (175 overall):

Boyd has always had nice numbers in college, but before 2013, the now senior was a reliever. The ESPN U scouting report said he threw a slider, changeup, curveball along with his fastball, but I didn't see the slider. I charted the pitches according to the ESPN U gun and he had an average fastball of 87.24 MPH, which is closest to Pedro Feliciano in the Pitch F/X era. He threw it 68 percent of the time. His curveball averaged 72.43 and his changeup averaged 74 MPH.

Boyd has a really high leg kick in which he straightens out his leg. It seems like he has a lot going on mechanically. He's got good size on the mound, listed at 6-3 and over 200 pounds. Boyd had a lot of problems missing glove side early on, pulling the ball.

His fastball doesn't look like quite like a sinker, but he keeps the fastball low for the most part. The curve doesn't have much vertical depth, and though he used it first, his change was more prevalent. He wasn't afraid to work fastball on hands of righties and was fastball heavy to begin the game, very traditional usage. He has the really soft college change, which won't work in Majors. I could only really tell the difference from it and the curve by vertical movement as it obviously had less. He would use change against lefties as well as righties.
He isn't a strikeout pitcher, but he got whiffs against lefties on fastball. He seems to be the kind of pitcher that likes working inside, throwing glove side to righties, and arm side to lefties. Relatively athletic in field, not bad, not great. There were a few pitches where he flat didn't finish his delivery. Slow pace, especially with runners on, lot of pickoff throws, move seemed decent. Overall, he got plenty of infield fly-balls.

I think maybe he has a future as a lefty specialist. The stuff won't cut it in a traditional relief role and he isn't a starter professionally in my opinion.

Daniel (or Danny) Hayes 1B White Sox (393 overall):

Despite his position, he batted towards the bottom of the order. Another senior, will probably be an easy and cheap sign to help them sign other draft picks. Doesn't look like a 1st baseman, a tall, but lanky, left-handed hitter. He's got a lot to his swing, as it looks quick, but he has to get it started soon to get all of the wiggle out of it. Because of this, up and in is a problem for him. He had to face a left-hander with a bit of an arm drop in his release point, which made it a little tough on him. He did see fastballs out of the zone well, didn't even flinch. On the other hand, he had problems with the breaking ball.

Defensively just saw routine plays other than a decent pick. Most likely organizational filler. Positional value is low to non existent, obvious holes in swing.

Scott Shultz P Marlins (502)

A somewhat funky delivery, as he has somewhat of a pause when his leg gets all the way up. He gets on top of the ball, can throw it low, fastball is a little straight. Short outing, just threw 4 fastballs that averaged 88.5 MPH, can get up to 94MPH according to reports. Tough to tell, depends on where his fastball velocity sits as a professional, was a successful college pitcher, mainly because he didn't walk hardly anyone.

Daniel Child P Phillies (541)

Another guy with good numbers because of a low walk rate and okay strikeout rate. Tall (listed at 6-5), but probably not going to add much more weight. Really aesthetically ugly mechanics .He brings a high leg kick and a body rock backwards with an arm action that almost looks like a shot put. With that said, he brought better velocity than the above pitchers, throwing 92-94 MPH on his fastball. He also threw one 79 MPH change (?) without real command. He's a fastball pitcher. Everything moves arm side for himand he threw the fastball low quite a bit.

There is MLB velocity there, I guess how you rate him depends on whether you think his mechanics will impede him from throwing strikes or not allow him to stay healthy. He didn't have a good outing and gave up some groundball hits, I don't think it means much as he has had good numbers for the past two seasons, serving mostly as a starter.

Jake Rodriguez C Astros (557)

Batted 8th, very mediocre numbers. Short at 5-9, Rodriguez is stout, without real growth potential. His receiving seemed good, and his arm looked strong, and he blocked well.

At the plate, he had a clear otherway swing, but seems to get it started quick with relatively good speed. He is not going to hit for much power it appears, but the bat control might be good enough to have him hit for a decent average. Predictably has little to no foot speed.

He was a little too aggressive, and does not have good plate discipline. Defense will carry him in the organization and he has the potential to be one of those guys that hang around organized baseball for a long time and could get a cup of coffee in the Majors.

My Own Draft 2013

Just like last year, this year I am doing my own "draft". Basically, I can select any where spot in a round, with one player per round. Since there were two "competitive balance" rounds, I selected one player from those "rounds. The rules are simple, I get one per round, but can skip one to overdraft a player, and I have to have seen the player play, whether on TV or in person (video such as YouTube doesn't count). At the end of the regular season, I will update my "draft" by showing which ones signed and which ones did not, and update how they are doing statistically (along with updating how my 2012 draft is doing). I consider this my "team", so eventually, I'll be able to compare my players to other team's drafts.

Hopefully I don't have the rash of unsigned players like last year. I'll probably do two different posts to update my 2012 and 2013 drafts at the end of the year.

Carlos Rodon and Luke Weaver Pitch Data

On May 11th, two good college sophomore pitchers pitched against each other, left-handed Carlos Rodon for NC State and right-handed Luke Weaver for Florida State. The two are draft prospects to watch for 2014, with Rodon being a significantly higher rated prospect than Weaver in preseason rankings. The game had a broadcast gun, so I logged the velocities of each of the starting pitchers.

Carlos Rodon's Velocity, in order of pitch 1 to 133:

Fastball: 88-97 MPH, 92.52 MPH average. The closest left-handed comparison according to MLBAM tags in the Pitch F/X era seems to be Brett Anderson, who has been an ace at times when healthy.

It seemed like Rodon threw a slider and a change, though it was often hard to tell which was which. He also didn't throw a traditional curve, just like we saw with Mark Appel, which seems very odd to me. To avoid classification problems, I just combined the two pitches, and we can compare it to sliders and changes.

79-88 MPH, 83.66 MPH. His closest comparison as a left-handed change is Madison Bumgarner, and the closest comparison as a slider is Mike Minor (slower than Bumgarner's). It is slightly harder than Minor's change, but it is really close (Minor's fastball is over 2 MPH slower than the one Rodon showed). Brett Anderson's slider is softer than Rodon's off-speed pitches in total, but his change is slightly higher.

Luke Weaver for Florida State was an 19th round pick out of high school. Here is his velocity chart from the game:

Fastball: 87-95 MPH, with a 91.83 MPH average. Out of qualified starters in the Majors in the Pitch F/X era, Weaver's closest fastball comparison is Matt Cain or Kyle Davies, both pitchers who had some success in the Majors, though obviously to differing degrees. Both could also max out over 95 MPH (though Davies hasn't pitched in the Majors in a couple years, and Cain hasn't done it in a couple of years). Weaver's fastball had some two seam type movement, that he especially used to come back over the plate on the away from righties part of the plate.

He seemed to feature what looked like a soft slider/hard curve along with a changeup that didn't move very traditionally. Combined, those pitches averaged 79.16 MPH. Separating them, because of the weird movement, was a little difficult, but because the breaking ball was significantly slower than the change on average, I am calling it a curve. I have him with:

77.64 MPH curveball, closest comparison to Arrieta, Blackburn, Buchholz, and Hammel, faster than Davies and Cain

82.33 MPH change, closest comparison to Scott Baker and Roy Oswalt, slower than Davies and Cain.

Rodon is obviously the better prospect, with both a handedness advantage, a size advantage, and a better fastball. However, Weaver has a big league fastball as well, and a more traditional curveball, and has been drafted before, so he is a MLB draft prospect for the 2014 season as well.

Charting Mark Appel

Mark Appel pitched in a much publicized game against Arizona State and another possible 1st rounder in Trevor Williams. Since the game was on ESPN U, it had a broadcast radar gun, so I decided to "chart" his outing. I don't feel the need to write a scouting report on Appel, because that has been done by several writers who would do it better than I would. He isn't exactly an unknown commodity, but I wanted to get his velocity numbers from the outing, and then compare him to MLB pitchers using Pitch F/X data (unfortunately, we will be dealing with the MLB AM tags when looking at the MLB pitchers, which obviously isn't ideal, but for this post necessary).

Of course the broadcast gun didn't pick up all the pitches, and I just ignored the ones that it didn't since I wasn't charting location or anything. In the 6th, evidently the gun stopped working for several pitches. Overall, ESPN had him at 121 pitches, but there were velocities for 112. Classification was somewhat difficult at times, but generally, the change is the pitch that "breaks" arm side, slider breaks glove for him (for the most part, I also went on whether or not the pitch actually appeared to break like a slider does). Here is Appel's breakdown:

56 fastballs, 50 %, 93.36 MPH average

34 changeups, 30.36 %, 82.97 MPH average.

22 sliders, 19.6 %, 85.27 MPH average.

In just fastball velocity for a right-handed pitcher, Mat Latos is the closest comparison (for qualified starters in the Pitch F/X era). Armando Gallaraga provides the best comparison in slider velocity, above average, but not elite. His closest changeup comparisons are Leake, Slowey, Hunter, Danks, and Hochevar, all who have softer fastballs than he does.

I would really like to see a curveball, something that didn't appear in the outing. Only two of the qualified starters in the Pitch F/X era have no curveballs to their name, Justin Masterson and Bud Norris. If you switched the slider and the changeup percentage, his pitch selection would be very similar to Bud Norris, as Jeremy Hellickson is the only pitcher with 30% changeups. The 19.6 % slider usage is right at Masterson, Jhoulys Chacin, and Ross Ohlendorf. It is hard to find a starting pitcher that throws some kind of fastball only 50 % of the time. John Smoltz seemed to do it, Carlos Villanueva does it, Hellickson nearly does it, Paul Byrd did it, as did Tim Stauffer, Mike Mussina (remember, this is all in the Pitch F/X era only), Anibal Sanchez, James Shields, Bronson Arroyo, Freddy Garcia, Jesse Litsch, Bruce Chen, R.A. Dickey, and Tim Wakefield.

These are all soft tossers or heavy slider pitchers. That is, except James Shields. Shields has had about an average fastball (not as good as Appel's), and throws a lot of changeups. However, Shields also throws a lot of curveballs and Wakefield is the only pitcher that threw just 3 different kind of pitches. Perhaps Appel just needs to develop a cutter to go along with his fastball (he didn't show one), but a curveball would be preferable.

In the actual outing, Appel threw almost a stupid amount of strikes, showing good control, though certainly not all of them were quality strikes (perhaps not good command, but Arizona State rarely made him pay). Appel did a good job of maintaining his velocity all game.

Certainly there are some MLB tools in the Mark Appel toolbox, but there are also some things missing. The fastball velocity is obviously very good, and his changeup movement (something we can't really quantify here) is big league esque. However, the lack of other pitches make real big league comparisons difficult.

Charting Rafael Pineda and Colby Suggs

Rafael Pineda is a senior right-handed pitcher for the Texas AM Aggies. He was selected by the Cincinnati Reds in the 40th (last round) round of the draft in 2012 but decided to come back to A&M. I got to see one of his outings against Arkansas on ESPN, which has a broadcast gun, so I charted his pitches.

Out of the 62 pitches I charted (I missed at least two or three because the velocity wasn't shown on the screen, but it was also a short outing), I counted 4 different pitches Pineda threw:

4-seam fastball: 6 (9.7 %) thrown at an average MPH of 89.5, maxing out at 91 MPH.

Sinker: 26 (41.9 %) thrown at an average MPH of 89.42, maxing out at 91 MPH.

Slider: 28 (45.2 %) thrown at an average MPH of 80.86, maxing out at 84 MPH.

Changeup: 2 (3.2 %) thrown at an average MPH of 79, maxing out at 79 MPH.

Looking at MLB comparisons in the Pitch F/X era, you are obviously going to have to start with sinker/slider guys. You don't see any qualified pitcher in the Pitch F/X era throwing that many sliders, which I feel like I have said before when talking about a college pitcher. As far as sinker velocity goes, Slowey, Looper, Lohse, and Cahill are the closest comparisons. Slowey is the best comparison as far as fastball velocity out of the group, as his 4-seamer doesn't gain hardly any velocity from his sinker. Of course, all 4 pitchers have harder sliders and changes, and have all shown curveballs off in the majors, something Pineda didn't do in the outing I saw him in.

Obviously the velocity is just mediocre, so he isn't a big prospect. The high volume of sliders is concerning, and the sinker/slider skillset is not one that works very often in MLB rotations. It just isn't MLB stuff, and he doesn't have Kevin Slowey's command.

I also saw Colby Suggs of Arkansas pitch out of relief and throw in the 9th inning. He threw just 13 pitches, but it seemed enough to get a look at his two pitches.

He threw 7 fastballs that averaged 95.57 MPH. Out of the 299 qualified MLB relievers in the Pitch F/X era, only 21 have better fastball velocity than that. 

The other 6 pitches were sliders that averaged 84.67 MPH. That fastball and slider velocity meshes very well with John Axford's. Axford has obviously had some problems over the last couple of years, and he had a long and weird road to the big leagues, but he had two really dominant years in 2010 and 2011.

Suggs isn't quite a J.T. Chargios or Damien Magnifico as far as fastball velocity coming out of the 2012 draft, but it is really elite velocity and clearly MLB stuff. The slider has to get some more command, but if you don't mind taking a reliever early, then I don't think you worry too much about it at this stage.

Cody Beam, Joseph Shaw, and Other DBU Notes

Cody Beam is a junior right-handed pitcher for Dallas Baptist University. Here is some video of his delivery:

The fastball looked good, comes in hard, and he seemed to work it to all sides of the plate. His off-speed pitch is soft and wasn't impressive in movement. This pitch was hit hard. He also had a tendency to let go of the ball too soon and have a lot of balls stay way up. This was particularly a problem with the breaking ball. He occasionally got some decent tow way tilt low and way to righties with it, and the usage suggests a soft slider. His best pitch was clearly the high heat when it was close enough to the zone. Here is a video of Beam pitching, his pickoff move, and Dustin McAlpine throwing to 2nd trying to get a runner (though I accidentally ended the video too early)

Late in his short outing, he was hit on the hand by a hard groundball and seemed like he couldn't get the breaking ball over after that (even though the fastball command stayed okay).

Joseph Shaw is a freshman right-handed pitcher that was selected in the 40th round by the Astros in 2012 but obviously did not sign. He is a pretty big human being (listed at 6-5), but doesn't have a big stride in his delivery:

He obviously gets on top of the ball well, and he threw a lot of low fastballs. He wasn't as overpowering as I thought he would be. He located his breaking ball well but didn't have much plus movement or velocity.

Speaking of Dustin McAlpine, I got four of his pop times to 2nd base in warmups: 2.22, 2.16, 2.19, 2.22. These are not good times, but it might be important to note that they were thrown with a lot of effort or urgency. Most of the throws were strong, but opponents ran on him quite a bit, and his in game throws were not as strong (I have been fascinated by McAlpine's inconsistency behind the plate over the last couple of seasons, and I may be just spitballing here, but I did notice that he takes warmup tosses normally, and then, when the batter comes up to the plate, he puts a sleeve on his arm that has a sheet with what is probably a list of pitches, that has a part that goes over his thumb. I wonder if this is affecting his throwing. Probably not, but I found it interesting he threw his warmup thrown down without it on). He did get a better time of 2.03 in the game, and picked off a runner at first. I didn't get that time, but when he tried to pickoff a runner at first later in the game, this time unsuccessfully, I got a time of 1.65. At the plate, he hit a 6.37 second fly-ball to centerfield.

Justin Wall hit a 4.25 second fly-ball to center. Nash Knight hit a 5.29 fly-ball to right, a 6.03 fly-ball to shallow right, and a 5.25 fly-ball to left. Ronnie Mitchell ran a 4.37 time to first from the left side. Shane Lynch hit a ball off the center field wall for a triple, and then later hit a home run at 5.44 seconds to center.

McKinney High School Baseball Scouting Reports

Harrison Kinney is a small guy (5-10 170 pounds) that seems to be all legs. He was getting good gloveside movement on his pitches and changed speeds with a good looking breaking ball. He mowed down Plano West's lineup quite impressively and threw all his pitches for strikes.

Dalton Harris is a senior catcher with a 2.06 pop time but inaccurate and not very strong in game throws. At the plate, he has a big uppercut swing that wasn't slow, but didn't give him much plate coverage. He did take a couple of walks in the game.

Jesse Cox stayed in on a slow curve that he pulled for a double. The senior corner infielder ran a 4.47 to first base. Gunnar Lund has solid speed, probably a tick below MLB average. The left-handed senior played 1st and hit a curveball well.

Joe Baker is a small junior shortstop that looked athletic and was rangey. However, he struggled with the routine play. He has a good arm and can throw across his body accurately. He doesn't have great offensive tools, but held his own with good plate coverage and some plate discipline. He does not a quick or powerful swing.

Garrett Christianson played 3rd and hit a 5.1 infield flyball. Brad Vassar is a left-handed batter that pulled a homer in 4.25 seconds. He also hit a pitch way outside to left field with 4.78 hang time. It definately looked like he had some pop.

Plano West Scouting Reports

The main prospect at Plano West is Billy McKinney, who I wrote about here. In this post, I will look at some of the other players on the team.

Preston Betz is a really small looking right-handed pitcher with a violent delivery and mechanics

He would over throw at times, and his curveball would slip out of his hands a lot and hit right-handed batters. This make you wonder how big his hands are (and he didn't have a real feel for his off-speed stuff). His slow curve was too slow, but the fastball looked hard and can get gloveside tail.

Kosuke Nishitani is not a fast runner, and is a small leadoff hitter from the left side. He seems to have solid plate discipline with a quick bat. His swing doesn't lend to power, but he hit the ball hard the other way. The junior throws right-handed and also pitched. This was the weaker part of his game, as he threw a ton of curveballs, along with a soft arm-side fastball that would get some sink.

Connor Smith is a senior catcher (also strangely listed as a centerfielder). He was too glove happy at blocking balls. He didn't have a particularly strong or accurate arm. He just missed a pull homer, with a 5.06 second flyball the wall.

Mason Gentry is a very tall senior first baseman that is thin now. He struggled defensively on routine plays, and was not athletic, and had the awkward run that comes with the size. He should grow into this so to speak, but he is obviously staying at first base for his playing career. At the plate, he struggled with pitch recognition, but hit a 4.18 flyball to center.

Riley Wayland didn't show range at 3rd, and was a well below average runner (4.5-4.6 to first base). However, he will take pitches at the plate, and had a 5.66 pop up tome to shallow left. Aaron Draper showed decent range and arm at shortstop. The arm proved to be strong, but his angels to the ball were a little weird.

Billy McKinney Scouting Report

Billy McKinney is one of the higher rated (38th best according to Max Preps) high school prospects in the country, and is a TCU commit. Luckily, I got to see the senior at Plano West (the rest of the reports on the team should be the next post) play on March 28th.

The first thing I noticed, just by looking at him compared to his teammates in the intros, it was clear that he is not really tall (listed at 6-1) and he was pretty much average height for the team. However, he had some really broad shoulders. He wasn't skinny, so while you could see him get a little thicker, he probably isn't going to pack on a lot more weight (in a good way). He is listed as a first baseman/OF, but I don't see how he fits at first, he just doesn't have the size for it. He played center when I saw him. The arm is at least okay, probably passable from what I saw. He did have an arm injury his junior year, that evidently he came back early from. Obviously I have no access to his medicals like teams would, but that may be something interesting to watch. He seemed to play really shallow out in center. He didn't get a lot of chances, but when he did, there was a ball hit basically to the left-fielder that McKinney just ran down. He used good strides along with good tracking of the ball, showing very nice range. He also showed good awareness of game situations, not false hustling when there was no reason to, backing up bases well etc. I am not sure what this means other than I don't think he is just a raw athlete running into walls not knowing how to play baseball.

McKinney's 1st at-bat was not impressive. He chased a low pitch, the first pitch, with an uncontrolled uppercut and popped out.

His 2nd at-bat gave us more of a look. He got ahead 3-0, then watched a changeup for a strike at 3-1 (a change at 3-0 seems very rare in high school), and then took an outside fastball with the runner moving to make it a full count. Then, he got under a low pitch, flying out to left softly with a 5.79 hang time, another uppercut swing (on what looked like a ball to me). At this point, we aren't seeing the bat speed, and it was another pitch hit the other way.

The 3rd at-bat was even worse. The first pitch was a fastball in on his hands, and he tried to swing at it. While the bat seemed relatively quick, he popped out to the pitcher lazily without getting any air under the ball. We quickly see some flaws in what McKinney is doing. He is too upper cut happy, which makes him susceptible to popping up, and the high pitch. He also wasn't showing a bat that was getting around on the ball, not pulling it.

I think we are certainly seeing him at his worst. He went 0-3 (and his team was shut out), but he has a .465 batting average and .629 OBP. He is usually a successful high school player. He doesn't have a lot of 0 for 3 games I am guessing. Obviously this speaks to the problems with one game looks. With this said, I didn't really see great tools or anything that screamed big leaguer or first round pick.

He didn't really seem to be 1st round pick size, but I wanted a more concrete look. There were 14 outfielders drafted in the first round last year (including the supplemental round). Just going by listed size, which can be deceiving, the average outfielder was about 6 feet 1.79 inches. Barrett Barnes was exact same listed size, weight and height, as McKinney. Victor Roache was same listed height, but much bigger weight wise. James Ramsey was shorter, and 3 players were listed at 6-1 and less than 195 (including Byron Buxton). So he wasn't as small as far as listed size versus normal first rounders as I thought. Of course, size doesn't matter if he has elite speed, and I know high school stats are often incomplete or misleading, but he just has 5 stolen bases, which seems low. I didn't get a great look at his speed, so I don't know if I can say more.

I obviously wished I got better video, and I wish I got a better look at him on a whole. So, below, I am posting a video of McKinney taken by Steve Florindo (here is his Google Plus Page)

In the video, I see a little hitch to get the swing started and some definite upper cut in the swing. This is all fine as a whole, but he is going to struggle with up and in good fastballs. It is a significant hole in his game. It can be really easy to find flaws in high school players games, even the really high rated ones, but to me, it is a significant flaw, and I didn't really see the great tools around it. I am not as high on him as others it is probably safe to say.

Denton Guyer Scouting Reports

Here are some very short notes on Denton Guyer High School:

Jud Kinzy is a senior (with decent and athletic looking size, listed at 6-2 180, looks like he could add a little weight) right-handed pitcher that had a simple and easy delivery, though his arm slot was not always inconsistent. Many times, he would sling his arm behind his body and step off the mound awkwardly when landing.

He also plays shortstop according to the roster, but ran a 4.37 to first on a bunt, which is slow. He wasn't throwing real hard (I clocked him at 77 MPH), and hitters were really out in front, and he was really hittable against left-handed batters. Kinzy ended up throwing a lot off-speed pitches, a 62 MPH very soft pitch with okay, though not late, movement. Most everything was throw low away from right-handed batters. His fastball wasn't bad when he threw it in, but he just didn't do it often.

Reid Battles is a senior catcher that looked quite big. He is listed at 6-4 173, but he didn't appear to be thin (which is what that weight would definitely imply), but he should fill out more. Predictably, he is not much of a runner (ran a not horrible 4.37 to first though). His arm didn't appear to be strong, but he had an okay 2.12 pop time. He hit a 5.37 second fly-ball to center, and hit another curveball well.

Domenic Pickering is a large senior that also evidently played on the defensive line in football. He struggled chasing high fastballs, but when he got one up and in, he pulled it for a homer (it isn't surprising that he is so strong if he also played on the defensive line for what is usually a good football program, though I don't follow high school football very closely anymore).

Chris Monroe is a senior shortstop that didn't look like a shortstop. While he was clearly smaller than some of the bigger players listed above (5-10), he was too big for to play shortstop without some really hidden athleticism. He is not fast, but the arm does work there, so perhaps 3rd base isn't impossible. He hit a 4.44 on an infield fly-ball.

Junior Zak Koehler ran a 4.5 to first from the right side. Daulton Horton played first base, didn't look his listed size, stocky, not real tall, ran about 4.6 to first. Tristan Brown is another junior that is pretty small, but he did run pretty well.

Wichita Falls High School Scouting Reports

Here are my scouting reports on Wichita Falls:

Kade Hutchins was the starting pitcher, and the short right-hander comes over the top. He threw some solid high fastballs at 78-79 MPH, with an okay breaking ball that had decent vertical tilt but was sort of soft. It acted like a big curve sometimes, getting down to 62-65 MPH and up to 70 MPH. He also had something that broke armside, either a change or 2-seamer that he could occasionally get to fade.

Pete Thomas played shortstop, and showed off not only a strong arm, but range and athleticism as well. He hit a towering fly-ball as well, so maybe there is some power there. He also pitched, even though he is really too short for the mound. His fastball had some gloveside movement and he could sink it. However, his delivery was complicated and he couldn't throw strikes.

Pryor Johnson is a small guy who played 2nd base with good range and plus speed. However, his arm wasn't very good. Zack Murphy is a DH with decent size. He ran 4.4 to first from the right side with sloppy running form. Bucky Daws is slow, and a pretty big 1st baseman (listed at 6-5). He showed some pull power with the platoon advantage. Tyler Blair hit a popup that stayed up in the air for 5.69 seconds.

Koy Daws is just a sophomore, but showed some impressive tools as the starting catcher. has a sitting down style catching, but he isn't even that big. It helped him block balls in the dirt. He was a quiet receiver and framer, and seemed to have a quick release when he threw the ball. With the bat, he pulled a ball that nearly hit the wall at 5.75 seconds, and then hit another breaking ball up the middle.

Garron Bates is a junior corner outfielder that showed some impressive raw pop (but didn't hit for any raw power last year), hitting a foul infield popup that stayed in the air for a tick over 7 seconds. He then pulled the pitch to the the wall. He is not overly athletic or fast though.

LD Bell Scouting Reports

I watched LD Bell high school last year, and this year, I was able to watch the high school that produces some college players again. Here are just some short notes on a few of the players on the team.

Jordan Satterwhite is a 6-0 sophomore right-handed pitcher. He has a delivery that is not fluid, but not complicated either. He comes over the top and tries to use the angle to get on top of the ball.

He seems to have a solid fastball, and either took some off for a change or a sinker. Talking about command at this age seems kind of silly, but it was much better than you would expect, and he had a really good outing. He looks like a name to watch, already starting on Friday nights and having success at a big school.

Satterwhite a long and slow swing and struggled at the plate. If there is a college or professional future for Satterwhite, it is with the bat.

Sydney Daley is a senior that played centerfield and batted leadoff. He showed off a solid arm, but some pretty unorthodox mechanics that don't give him a real quick release. He has very good size and is tall (6-4) and just eats up ground in center with some long strides. I got about a 4.31 from the right side though, which is about average speed. I wasn't sure if he was running his hardest because his motion is so fluid and easy looking, but I got similar times later in the game. At the plate, he drove the ball really well when he had the platoon advantage. Below is some video I took of him hitting:

Caleb Rose is a junior right-fielder that had the best outfield arm on the team, a legitimate middle of the outfield to the plate arm. It is not surprising that he pitches. Unfortunately, I only saw him in warmups, as he didn't start. He is stocky, and I wonder if this speaks to a lack of other tools.

Zach Plunkett, the junior catcher, had an impressive 6.03 foul pop up time. His swing had a lot of issues, but he drilled a ball to the wall another time, showing that there is some real strength there.