Showing posts with label Indians. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Indians. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Velocity Pitch F/X Park Factors

A few months ago, one of my favorite Pitch F/X writers Jon Roegele posted what basically amounted to Pitch F/X park factors. I have used them in some of my articles before, but as he notes in the article, in his actual table when it came to velocity, he didn't control for pitch type (he notes the problem with this in the article, and does say that looking at just fastballs does change the data and gives some examples), so I wanted to do my own version, just looking at velocity in 2013. Unlike Roegele, I did not control for handedness.

The first thing I did was look at all 4-seam fastballs (FF in the classifications) for each team based on the home and road. This has some problems of its own, as we are dealing with MLBAM pitch classifications, which certainly are not perfect. However, I didn't want to include all pitches or all kinds of fastballs because we aren't controlling for pitch type, which could skew the velocity if a few pitchers changed their tendencies from home to road, of which there seem to be some cases. Of course, if there are tag biases in parks, it could affect the data in a way we can't control. There is also the problem of roster fluidity. Teams use different pitchers throughout the season, releasing and signing guys, using spot starters, having to put pitchers on the DL, etc. So some pitchers may pitch more on the road than home (this especially applies to spot starters). Depending on their velocities, this could mess with the data (also, sometimes it just works out where some pitchers pitch more on the road than home or vise versa). To control for that, I am putting two sets of data, the team home/road splits, along with the home/road splits of the pitcher on each team with the most fastballs thrown. I think I did it a little differently than Roegele, looking at each team individually, splitting the teams by home/road (and not separating by road parks). Baseball Savant made this really easy to do, so this is where I pulled the data from. 

Of course, this data will instantly out of date, so don't use the raw MPH data. This is only to get a better look at which parks have biases in velocity data. The differences are far more important than the actual velocities. I sorted the spreadsheet by the overall team difference.

Weirdly, it seems that the average velocity of all pitchers is slightly higher on the road. Obviously the bigger differences came from the individual pitchers, which would be expected due to sample size. The Blue Jays have the biggest difference when it comes to team, with Justin Masterson having the biggest home/road splits out of the 30 pitchers. The Braves results are really weird, as Mike Minor has an average velocity of nearly half a MPH on the road, but the park actually is the 2nd "hottest". The Royals park, usually thought of and tested as "hot" has played neutral as a team, but Ervin Santana has seen a big difference from home to road. Overall, the results for all parks aren't that far off on average, and I don't think it really changes much when it comes to analysis of individual pitchers.

Monday, June 10, 2013

MLB Draft Pick Scouting Reports From Virginia and Mississippi State

A few notes on draft picks from the Virginia/Mississippi State Super Regional:

Chad Gioroda of Mississippi State (Blue Jays 265th overall) is a left-handed pitcher with a specialist type arm slot. He will go down and drop sidearm to throw breaking ball. His fastball is about 87-90 MPH with a 77-78 MPH, down to 74 MPH changeup that looked very unimpressive. Just tries to throw it for strikes, really uses it a lot to righties. I don't think this stuff will play real well professionally, especially in the upper levels.

Hunter Renfroe, 13th overall pick in the draft by the Padres, has really good looking size. The bat speed looks plenty quick, along with good plate coverage. He was chasing a lot of off-speed pitches and changeups. Good contact skills though, along with a nice 2 strike foul-off-pitches approach. Saw a ton of breaking balls, and because he chased, he didn't get fastballs, and it was hard to evaluate him. A slightly above average runner, so he has good size/speed combo, but approach needs a lot of work, probably too pull happy on outside pitches. With that said, he did a good job of taking an inside fastball the other way, hitting it with some force.

Reed Gragnani of Virginia was drafted 623rd overall by the Red Sox. A good sized 2nd baseman with good contact skills and bat control. He got a pitch low and out of the zone for a well hit base hit. He took some close breaking balls, but chased with two strikes.

Adam Frazier of Mississippi State is a shortstop picked by the Pirates 179th overall. A small left-handed hitter, he chased some bad breaking balls. Seemed to struggle without the platoon advantage. He does have a good contact tool, but he is going to swing at just about everything and doesn't hit for power.

Kyle Crockett of Virginia is a left-handed pitcher taken by the Indians in the 4th round. His fastball sat at 88-92, touching 93 MPH when I saw him out of the bullpen and his release point is a little out, which seems to help his fastball get some movement, but is probably easy for righties to see. He has had back problems and there is a lot of swing to his delivery. Crockett has a off-speed pitch that he throws to both lefties and righties. He really likes it against righties and tends to hang it and it only gets up to 80-81 MPH.

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

A Double A minor league metric

I chose everyone who played for the Columbus Clippers (the Indians AAA affiliate) in 2011 (as long as they had a decent amount of PA in both AA and AAA).
All AAA is International League (or at least partially International League). The AA league is listed in () after AA. I may revisit this and see if there is a substantial difference between leagues.

Bubba Bell: AA (EL): .353 OBP, .794 OPS, 1.44 PPG, 2.52 PAPP, 2.19 Simple WAR
 AAA: .328 OBP, .667 OPS, .83 PPG, 2.84 PAPP, .07 Simple WAR

Jordon Brown: AA (EL): .421 OBP, .906 OPS, 1.44 PPG, 2.49 PAPP,5.82 Simple WAR
AAA: .352 OBP, .821 OPS, 1.19 PPG, 2.71 PAPP, 2.09 Simple WAR

Travis Buck: AA (TL): .376 OBP, .847 OPS, 1.34 PPG, 2.43 PAPP, 3.49 Simple WAR
AAA: .366 OBP, .789 OPS, 1.25 PPG, 2.7 PAPP, 2.61 Simple WAR

Luke Carlin: AA (SOUL): .349 OBP, .668 OPS, 2.84 PAPP, .6 PPG, .93 Simple WAR
AAA: .369 OBP, .738 OPS, 2.66 PAPP, .9 PPG, 2.42 Simple WAR

Lonnie Chisenhall: AA (EL): .333 OBP, .772 OPS, 1.53 PPG, 2.8 PAPP, 1.11 Simple
AAA: .353 OBP, .784 OPS, 1.47 PPG, 2.86 PAPP, 2.02 Simple WAR

Ben Copeland: AA (EL): .331 OBP, .752 OPS, 2.7 PAPP, 1.23 PPG, .84 Simple WAR
AAA: .359 OBP, .767 OPS, .99 PPG, 2.54 PAPP, 2.15 Simple WAR

Trevor Crowe: AA (EL): .349 OBP,.724 OPS, 2.57 PAPP, 1.39 PPG,1.66 SimpleWAR
AAA: .346 OBP, .740 OPS, 2.61 PAPP, 1.32 PPG, 1.55 Simple WAR

Jason Donald: AA (EL):.384 OBP, .863 OPS, 2.33 PAPP, 1.42 PPG, 4.05 SimpleWAR
AAA: .358 OBP, .753 OPS, 2.72 PAPP, 1.21 PPG, 2.05 Simple WAR

Shelley Duncan: AA (EL): .325 OBP, .814 OPS, 2.74 PAPP, 1.47 PPG, .94 Simple
AAA: .368 OBP, .883 OPS, 2.41 PAPP, 1.67 PPG, 3.45 Simple WAR

Tim Fedroff: AA (EL): .367 OBP, .764 OPS, 2.7 PAPP, 1.05 PPG 2.45 Simple WAR
AAA: .370 OBP, .732 OPS, 2.67 PAPP, .98 PPG, 2.42 Simple WAR

Jared Goedert: AA (EL): .337 OBP, .765 OPS, 2.83 PAPP, 1.13 PPG, 1.07 Simple
AAA: .346 OBP, .857 OPS, 2.56 PAPP, 1.38 PPG, 2.13 Simple WAR

Jerad Head: AA (EL): .355 OBP, .845 OPS, 2.72 PAPP, 1.36 PPG, 2.4 Simple WAR
AAA: .336 OBP, .857 OPS, 2.76 PAPP, 1.43 PPG, 1.61 Simple WAR

Michel Hernandez: AA (EL): .344 OBP, .706 OPS, 2.91 PAPP, .78 PPG, .92 WAR
AAA: .340 OBP, .694 OPS, 2.94 PAPP, .74 PPG, .65 Simple WAR

Wes Hodges: AA (EL): .342 OBP, .797 OPS, 2.73 PAPP, 1.26 PPG, 1.55 Simple WAR
AAA: .304 OBP, .704 OPS, 3.09 PAPP, 1.05 PPG, -.86 Simple WAR

Chad Huffman: AA (TL): .377 OBP, .799 OPS, 2.61 PAPP, 1.18 PPG, 3.16 WAR
AAA: .355 OBP, .789 OPS, 2.69 PAPP, 1.12 PPG, 2.05 Simple WAR

Nick Johnson: AA (EL): .528 OBP, 1.070 OPS, 2.04 PAPP, 1.64 PPG, 14.9 WAR
AAA: .377 OBP, .794 OPS, 2.49 PAPP, 1.09 PPG, 3.15 Simple WAR

Jason Kipnis: AA (EL): .385 OBP, .887 OPS, 2.45 PAPP, 1.56 PPG, 4.17 SimpleWAR
AAA: .362 OBP, .846 OPS, 2.45 PAPP, 1.57 PPG, 2.88 Simple WAR

Matt LaPorta: AA (SOUL): .402 OBP, .978 OPS, 2.5 PAPP, 1.71 PPG, 5.41 Simple
AAA: .400 OBP, .953 OPS, 2.37 PAPP, 1.55 PPG, 5.19 Simple WAR

Matt McBride: AA (EL): .336 OBP, .819 OPS, 2.86 PAPP, 1.35 PPG, 1.35 Simple
AAA: .267 OBP, .645 OPS, 3.41 PAPP, .88 PPG, -3.04 Simple WAR

Thomas Neal: AA (EL): .359 OBP, .799 OPS, 2.7 PAPP, 1.18 PPG, 2.3 Simple WAR
AAA: .343 OBP, .734 OPS, 3.01 PAPP, 1.09 PPG, 1.1 Simple WAR

Paul Phillips: AA (TL): .324 OBP, .698 OPS, 3.08 PAPP, 1.07 PPG, .03 Simple WAR
AAA: .309 OBP, .672 OPS, 3.17 PAPP, .84 PPG, -.76 Simple WAR

Argenis Reyes: AA (EL): .313 OBP, .673 OPS, 2.87 PAPP, 1.02 PPG, -.51 WAR
AAA: .342 OBP, .702 OPS, 2.84 PAPP, .84 PPG, .87 Simple WAR

Josh Rodriquez: AA (EL): .348 OBP, .709 OPS, 2.79 PAPP, 1 PPG, 1.27 WAR
AAA: .364 OBP, .827 OPS, 2.5 PAPP, 1.24 PPG, 3.01 Simple WAR

Grady Sizemore: AA (EL): .376 OBP, .858 OPS, 2.63 PAPP, 1.5 PPG, 3.52 WAR
AAA: .361 OBP, .802 OPS, 2.68 PAPP, 1.47 PPG, 2.55 Simple WAR

Luis Valbuena: AA (SOUL): .335 OBP, .751 OPS, 2.73 PAPP, 1.15 PPG, 2.13 WAR
AAA: .387 OBP, .855 OPS, 2.37 PAPP, 1.45 PPG, 4.15 Simple WAR

AA average: .362 OBP, .802 OPS, 2.69 Simple WAR
AAA average: 1.82 Simple WAR
Average difference: -.87 Simple WAR
AA to MLB difference: -2.36 (average player above, according to their AA statistics projects at a .33 Simple WAR a season)

Saturday, September 24, 2011

Remembering the Hafner trade

Just the other day, Cleveland Indian first baseman Travis Hafner recorded his 1,000th hit (injuries in recent years is the only reason this took so long). In 2002, the Texas Rangers sent Hafner and Aaron Myette to Drew Carey-land for Ryan Drese and Einar Diaz. At the time, Baseball America called it one of the most lopsided trades in history. Certainly there have been more lopsided trades in baseball history, but its pretty lopsided (sorry Ranger fans). Hafner is really the only guy in the trade that turned out to be any good at all (Drese had one nice season for the Rangers). The Rangers got a grand total of 3.8 WAR from Drese and Diaz in Texas, while Cleveland has gotten 22.9 Wins after Replacement from Hafner (Myette only gave them a -.3 WAR in his one year). Hafner's PPG has been 1.38 in his career (he had a 1.6 PPG in the Rangers minor league system) and he has had 2 seasons with an OPS of over 1,000. For what its worth, his minor league metrics per season was 1 more homer, .017 on the batting average, .025 on the OBP, and 13 more RBIs.

Sunday, July 31, 2011

Key Trades at the Trade Deadline

Grading Key Trades at the Deadline

Blue Jays sent Edwin Jackson (who they got from the White Sox, more on that below), Marc Rzepczynski, Octavio Dotel, and Corey Patterson (and three players to be named later or cash)
for Colby Rasmus, Trever Miller, Brian Tallet, and PJ Walters.

Who won: With so many players and so many moving parts, its hard to declare a victor, at least right now. A lot will hinge on what those three players to be named later turn out to be. The Cardinals approach the trade deadline a little differently than most teams. Instead of being the traditional buyers or sellers, they are not afraid to trade players from their major league rosters, even if they are in contention. Rasmus and Miller were playing roles on the team before being traded. The Blue Jays were in sell mode, they are a mediocre team stuck in the toughest division of the American League. The Cardinals get two solid veteran relievers to shore up a struggling bullpen, and a starting pitcher in Edwin Jackson. I don't like Corey Patterson anymore, 5 years ago, that would have been a great get, but not anymore in my opinion, that may have been a mistake, other than they don't really need the
hitting. Colby Rasmus could turn out to be a great, even a 5-tool guy according to some scouts, player for the Jays, and he was a good acquisition. However, I don't understand what Trever Miller does for you. He is an alright guy to use only on lefties, but he is certainly not a guy for the future. I am not sure what the Jays were thinking there.

Jays get Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen from the White Sox for Jason Frasor and Zach Stewart.

Who won: This trade tells me that the White Sox, despite being right in the thick of the divisional race, have given up. Who gets rid of a starter and a infielder on the major league roster for a reliever and a prospect? Certainly not a team that thinks its going to win. This was a really bizarre trade. At the time, it made no sense for the Jays either, but Jackson proved to be a key piece for the Cardinal deal. Plus, if the White Sox are sellers, why are they getting a veteran reliever? Just a bizarre move by the White Sox.

Orioles get Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter from the Rangers for Koji Uehara

Who won: This trade made sense for both teams. The AL-West leading Rangers needed some relief help, so they went and got one of the top 5 non-closer bullpen pitchers. They gave up Chris Davis, who has a lot of potential and destroys AAA, but can't figure out at the big league level, and Tommy Hunter, a young pitcher with a kind of low ceiling (and injury problems) that the Rangers didn't have a place for. If those two figure it out (Hunter had 12 wins last year), then the Orioles just made a brilliant trade.

Diamondbacks receive Jason Marquis from Nationals for prospect Zach Walters.

Who won: Obviously the Diamondbacks. They got a decent starter for only one prospect. The Nationals aren't in the race, but they really better hope this prospect turns out, or this was a big waste.

Diamondbacks receive Brad Ziegler from Athletics for Brandon Allen and Jordan Norberto

Who won: The Diamondbacks, who need some pitching, get a solid fun reliever for a couple of prospects. Its hard to know how these deals will turn out, one figures Ziegler will pitch 20 innings for the Diamondbacks, and no matter how well he does, I doubt the 'Backs are catching the Giants anyway. That said, they have a chance for the first time in a while, and its good to see they are going after it. The Athletics are in obvious rebuilding mode, and get a couple of guys that could be part of their future. You have to like this deal if your an A's fan.

Giants receive Carlos Beltran and money from the Mets for Zach Wheeler.

Who won: You get a star outfielder for a pitching prospect? You take that in a heartbeat. The way Beltran is hitting, if he can stay healthy, can put the Giants right back in the world series. The Mets had to get rid of Beltran, and you might as well get something for him, but you would think they should have got more.

Giants get Jeff Keppinger from Astros for Henry Sosa and Jason Stoffel.

Who won: Astros are obviously sellers, being the worst team in baseball, and getting rid of Keppinger, despite being a good player that I like, was a smart move. They get two more prospects to use to help build their team. The Giants needed the lineup help, especially up the middle. This trade made sense for both teams.

Rangers receive Mike Adams for Joe Wieland and Robbie Erlin from Padres.

Who won: The Rangers get another top bullpen pitcher, this one is one that is under contract for quite sometime (unlike Heath Bell). The Padres get two solid prospects as they try to rebuild their team, I am not sure they should have let Adams go however.

Rockies get Joe Gardner, Alex White, Matt Mcbride, and a player to be named from the Indians for Ubaldo Jimenez.

Who won: The Indians just got a pitcher who can be their ace for quite a long time. Ubaldo struggled at the beginning of the year, but has gotten hot, and with Cleveland right in the race, they needed an ace. The Rockies, who are having a mediocre season, decide to build for the future. They must have been overwhelmed with the trade offer, because they had no real reason to move Ubaldo.

Astros get Jordan Schafer, Brett Oberholtzer, Paul Clemens, and Juan Abreu from Braves for Michael Bourn and cash

Who won: This smells fishy on both sides. While the Astros are in obvious rebuilding mode, Bourn is not old or expensive. He could have been part of the Astros future. However, I really like Jordan Schafer, and getting 3 more pitching prospects on top may have made it too much to resist for the Astros. On the Braves side, one wonders if they just repeated the Mark Texiera trade for a guy who doesn't hit homers. I love Michael Bourn, and I love those Juan Pierre type players, and the Braves needed one desperately, but one wonders if they gave up too much. If Bourn is the missing piece for a World Series win, than the answer is no.

Astros get Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, Josh Zeid and a player to be named later from the Phillies for Hunter Pence.

Who won: The Astros continue to dump their veterans players for prospects. But again, one wonders, why get rid of Pence? He is under 30 and under contract past this season. But again, they got a lot for him. They receive some of the Phillies' top prospects to help build that team. This is a no brainer for the Phils. They are poised to not only win a pennant, but the World Series as well, but they did need a bat. Boy, they got one. Pence is an awesome player and will be very helpful down the stretch.

Cubs got Abner Abreu and Carlton Smith from Indians for Kosuke Fukudome.

Who won: No brainer deal for both sides. The Cubs are way out of it, and had much more that they should have dumped than they did. The Indians get a very good outfielder in Fukudome (I call him little Ichiro, because he plays just like him). This is a classic buyer/seller deal.