Colby Rasmus and Velocity

Ben Nicholson-Smith had an excellent piece that showed that the Blue Jays, specifically Colby Rasmus, have been facing top notch fastball velocity in the early going of the MLB season. In the article, Rasmus claims he hits faster pitches, specifically fastballs, better. I have always been interested in Rasmus from a distance (I haven't been as big of a fan of him as many, especially the Blue Jays evidently), and wanted to test the claim Rasmus made and look at some of his other tendencies as a hitter to see if we could figure out the puzzle that often is Colby Rasmus.

So using Pitch F/X (specifically Brooks Baseball's Tabular Data by games) I looked at all the pitches Rasmus has seen against starters in 2012 and early in 2013. If for some reason someone wants to look at those pitches and make their own observations or charts, you should be able to download my spreadsheet by clicking here.

Out of those 1495 pitches, Rasmus has seen 80 pitches over 95 MPH. He swung and missed at 9 of those (11.25%). He has put 15 of them in play, 12 of them for outs, and 3 of them for no outs. BABIP plays a role obviously, especially in a sample size this small, but it doesn't seem that he is having a lot of success on top notch fastballs (not that we would expect anyone to have a lot of success with 95-99.5 MPH fastballs).

He has seen 581 pitches at 91 MPH (about MLB starter average) or harder (regardless of classification). I count 40 whiffs in the 501 pitches between 91 MPH to 95 MPH (7.98 %).

I count 122 four-seam fastballs thrown below 91 MPH and count 7 whiffs out of that group (5.7 %). So it would seem that Rasmus gets better the slower the fastball is, which again, is what we would expect normally, but shows that Rasmus' confidence in squaring up 95 MPH fastballs is probably overstated (of course, no hitter is going to say "I just give up whenever I see 95 MPH fastballs because I don't hit them as well").

Of course, much of the context of Rasmus' confidence in hitting harder pitches was versus breaking pitches. When you again sort pitches into bins just by velocity and ignore classifications:

85-90.99 MPH: 466 pitches in total, 52 whiffs (11.1 %), 14 run scoring plays (3%)

80-84.99 MPH: 257 pitches, 44 whiffs (17.1 %), 2 run scoring plays (.7 %)

75-79.99 MPH: 151 pitches, 20 whiffs (13.2 %), 5 run scoring plays (3.3 %)

Slower than 75 MPH: 39 pitches, 1 whiff (2.6 %), 0 run scoring plays

So we see that the 80-85 MPH range is really his trouble spot. This is where many of the sliders and changes are going to be. However, when you slow it down a little more, where most curves are going to be, he has more success. Overall, his whiffs came on an average velocity of 86.67 MPH, while his run scoring plays came on an average velocity of 87.84 MPH. So it seems that, while he is better against softer fastballs than harder fastballs, he is somewhat right about liking harder pitches. However, if you look at the balls he has put into play, the ones that have turned into outs average 88.5 MPH, but the ones that were not turned into outs were 87.28 MPH. So the relationship is definitely complicated.

Because it may just be breaking pitches versus fastballs, without having to deal with classifications, spin may give us a little bit more of a look. High spin pitches are usually going to be fastballs and changeups, while low spin pitches are usually curveballs and sliders:

Whiffs: 184.63 degrees
Runs Scoring plays: 215.844
Outs: 199.35
No Outs: 184.88

Again, we see the somewhat inverse relationship that may just be affected by BABIP.

I find it interesting to look at the release points of opposing pitchers for hitters to see if we can find what hitters end up having problems seeing. So here are the release points by opposing pitchers on Rasmus' run scoring plays:

Here are the release points on Rasmus' whiffs

 

It is tough for me to see much of a difference (other than the obvious one, he is struggling against more sidearm type left-handers, which we would expect all lefties to do), especially since the sample sizes are different sizes. With that said, I find it fascinating how much he is missing on right-handers that have a very "out" or 3rd base side of the rubber release point. Usually, you would expect him to see the ball better from those pitchers.

It still may help us to look at his strike zone:

 

As we would expect from looking at his velocity data, he is really good on pitches up and in. The problem doesn't really seem to be bat speed or any kind of hitch in his swing (or the timing that comes with his leg kick). Even though he predictably struggles with harder fastballs, he gets around on average ones. The problems come on balls low, whether away, inside, or down the middle (or just middle to outside in the strike zone). He doesn't respond to hard/medium breaking balls very well. This may help us see why he is missing so much from "out" right-handers, as they may just be feeding him braking balls outside, which he can't really hit anyway, even if he sees it.

When we break down his stance and his swing (screenshots below), we see nothing that tells us he should have such problem with low breaking balls. He doesn't have a weird open stance:

He keeps it straight as the pitch is delivered, and even leans in to give him some reach:

And he has good plate coverage:

There doesn't seem to be anything obviously mechanically wrong with his swing. As hinted to by himself, he may just have problems recognizing pitches.

The Colby Rasmus trade: Who has gotten better value so far

Right before the non-waiver trade deadline, the Cardinals got Edwin Jackson,   Octavio Dotel and Marc Rzepczynski, and Corey Patterson. The Blue Jays got Colby Rasmus, P.J. Walters, Trever Miller and Brian Tallet. For the Jays, Colby Rasmus was a disaster in 2011, a -.9 WAR and injury problems. Trever Miller was a really pointless pickup, registering a 0 WAR in 3.2 IP, was released and signed by the division rival Red Sox. Tallet managed to pick up a -.6 WAR despite only pitching .1 innings for the Jays. Walters threw just 1 inning and registered a 0 WAR. For the Cardinals Edwin Jackson had a .8 WAR, Dotel had a .2, Corey Patterson had a -.4 WAR, and Rzepczynski had a .1 WAR. For the Cardinals, the trade had a slightly positive effect, and they needed everything they could get with their improbable comeback to sneak into the wild-card. For Toronto, the trade was for the future, but the players they got actually hurt them down the stretch.

Key Trades at the Trade Deadline

Grading Key Trades at the Deadline

Blue Jays sent Edwin Jackson (who they got from the White Sox, more on that below), Marc Rzepczynski, Octavio Dotel, and Corey Patterson (and three players to be named later or cash)

for Colby Rasmus, Trever Miller, Brian Tallet, and PJ Walters.

Who won: With so many players and so many moving parts, its hard to declare a victor, at least right now. A lot will hinge on what those three players to be named later turn out to be. The Cardinals approach the trade deadline a little differently than most teams. Instead of being the traditional buyers or sellers, they are not afraid to trade players from their major league rosters, even if they are in contention. Rasmus and Miller were playing roles on the team before being traded. The Blue Jays were in sell mode, they are a mediocre team stuck in the toughest division of the American League. The Cardinals get two solid veteran relievers to shore up a struggling bullpen, and a starting pitcher in Edwin Jackson. I don't like Corey Patterson anymore, 5 years ago, that would have been a great get, but not anymore in my opinion, that may have been a mistake, other than they don't really need the

hitting. Colby Rasmus could turn out to be a great, even a 5-tool guy according to some scouts, player for the Jays, and he was a good acquisition. However, I don't understand what Trever Miller does for you. He is an alright guy to use only on lefties, but he is certainly not a guy for the future. I am not sure what the Jays were thinking there.

Jays get Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen from the White Sox for Jason Frasor and Zach Stewart.

Who won: This trade tells me that the White Sox, despite being right in the thick of the divisional race, have given up. Who gets rid of a starter and a infielder on the major league roster for a reliever and a prospect? Certainly not a team that thinks its going to win. This was a really bizarre trade. At the time, it made no sense for the Jays either, but Jackson proved to be a key piece for the Cardinal deal. Plus, if the White Sox are sellers, why are they getting a veteran reliever? Just a bizarre move by the White Sox.

Orioles get Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter from the Rangers for Koji Uehara

Who won: This trade made sense for both teams. The AL-West leading Rangers needed some relief help, so they went and got one of the top 5 non-closer bullpen pitchers. They gave up Chris Davis, who has a lot of potential and destroys AAA, but can't figure out at the big league level, and Tommy Hunter, a young pitcher with a kind of low ceiling (and injury problems) that the Rangers didn't have a place for. If those two figure it out (Hunter had 12 wins last year), then the Orioles just made a brilliant trade.

Diamondbacks receive Jason Marquis from Nationals for prospect Zach Walters.

Who won: Obviously the Diamondbacks. They got a decent starter for only one prospect. The Nationals aren't in the race, but they really better hope this prospect turns out, or this was a big waste.

Diamondbacks receive Brad Ziegler from Athletics for Brandon Allen and Jordan Norberto

Who won: The Diamondbacks, who need some pitching, get a solid fun reliever for a couple of prospects. Its hard to know how these deals will turn out, one figures Ziegler will pitch 20 innings for the Diamondbacks, and no matter how well he does, I doubt the 'Backs are catching the Giants anyway. That said, they have a chance for the first time in a while, and its good to see they are going after it. The Athletics are in obvious rebuilding mode, and get a couple of guys that could be part of their future. You have to like this deal if your an A's fan.

Giants receive Carlos Beltran and money from the Mets for Zach Wheeler.

Who won: You get a star outfielder for a pitching prospect? You take that in a heartbeat. The way Beltran is hitting, if he can stay healthy, can put the Giants right back in the world series. The Mets had to get rid of Beltran, and you might as well get something for him, but you would think they should have got more.

Giants get Jeff Keppinger from Astros for Henry Sosa and Jason Stoffel.

Who won: Astros are obviously sellers, being the worst team in baseball, and getting rid of Keppinger, despite being a good player that I like, was a smart move. They get two more prospects to use to help build their team. The Giants needed the lineup help, especially up the middle. This trade made sense for both teams.

Rangers receive Mike Adams for Joe Wieland and Robbie Erlin from Padres.

Who won: The Rangers get another top bullpen pitcher, this one is one that is under contract for quite sometime (unlike Heath Bell). The Padres get two solid prospects as they try to rebuild their team, I am not sure they should have let Adams go however.

Rockies get Joe Gardner, Alex White, Matt Mcbride, and a player to be named from the Indians for Ubaldo Jimenez.

Who won: The Indians just got a pitcher who can be their ace for quite a long time. Ubaldo struggled at the beginning of the year, but has gotten hot, and with Cleveland right in the race, they needed an ace. The Rockies, who are having a mediocre season, decide to build for the future. They must have been overwhelmed with the trade offer, because they had no real reason to move Ubaldo.

Astros get Jordan Schafer, Brett Oberholtzer, Paul Clemens, and Juan Abreu from Braves for Michael Bourn and cash

Who won: This smells fishy on both sides. While the Astros are in obvious rebuilding mode, Bourn is not old or expensive. He could have been part of the Astros future. However, I really like Jordan Schafer, and getting 3 more pitching prospects on top may have made it too much to resist for the Astros. On the Braves side, one wonders if they just repeated the Mark Texiera trade for a guy who doesn't hit homers. I love Michael Bourn, and I love those Juan Pierre type players, and the Braves needed one desperately, but one wonders if they gave up too much. If Bourn is the missing piece for a World Series win, than the answer is no.

Astros get Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, Josh Zeid and a player to be named later from the Phillies for Hunter Pence.

Who won: The Astros continue to dump their veterans players for prospects. But again, one wonders, why get rid of Pence? He is under 30 and under contract past this season. But again, they got a lot for him. They receive some of the Phillies' top prospects to help build that team. This is a no brainer for the Phils. They are poised to not only win a pennant, but the World Series as well, but they did need a bat. Boy, they got one. Pence is an awesome player and will be very helpful down the stretch.

Cubs got Abner Abreu and Carlton Smith from Indians for Kosuke Fukudome.

Who won: No brainer deal for both sides. The Cubs are way out of it, and had much more that they should have dumped than they did. The Indians get a very good outfielder in Fukudome (I call him little Ichiro, because he plays just like him). This is a classic buyer/seller deal.