Shoki Kasahara Scouting Report

Shoki Kasahara is a 21 year old pitcher in the NPB that is currently pitching in the Puerto Rican Winer League. He has pitched in just 4 games in the actual NPB, so there isn't a lot of data on him.

Fangraphs had him at a Scout - of 89 (100 is average, lower is better, just like FIP -) in the Puerto Rican Winter League through 5 starts. In 6 starts, he has a 4.736 FIP, with a 4/1 K/BB and 1.08 GO/AO but a high home run rate. Against right-handers, he has a 16/1 K/BB, but 4 homers in 15.2 innings. From what I can see, league average HR/9IP is just .61. Obviously small sample size applies and Kasahara is younger than his competition, but he is still struggling with homers nonetheless. 

The right-handed pitcher has good size at 6-3 210 with a high leg kick and quite a dramatic pause in his delivery. He has a strange leg drag in his delivery where his body is almost already lunged forward before his leg actually strides. Eventually, this causes his body to get pretty low before delivery the ball (something I have seen in a few Dominican native pitchers, though the pause and leg kick is Asian baseball in nature).

According to his NPB tracker data, he has 7 different pitches, but his fastball is just 86 MPH (according to this video, he has hit nearly 90 MPH). He throws a "shutto" (2-seamer basically) and a sinker, along with a slow 70 MPH curve, very soft slider (74 MPH), a change and forkball. 

I had a hard time telling the difference between the moving fastball, the 4-seamer, and the sinker. Velocity and placement is mainly what I would go on, because I didn't see a big difference in movement.  He would throw some down in the zone with a little bit of movement with the velocity of a 4-seamer. 

In video I saw of him, he seemed to like his slider, but he couldn't really get it down. It broke like what is usually described as sort of a "baby slider". His curve breaks the same way, vertically not horizontally, but is more dramatic, and obviously, slower. The pitch gets down to 67.5 MPH.

Despite his great selection of pitches, his favorite pitch still seems to be the high fastball. Kasahara seems to work high then low (or vise versa) about as well as you are going to see any pitcher. He seems to be able to run his fastball into lefties (it doesn't move quite like a cutter, though perhaps you could call it one just on movement).

Obviously the fastball velocity limits what Kasahara can be, but the selection of pitches is, at the very least, interesting. You always wonder about pitchers with this many pitches, as to whether or not they have too many "tools in the toolbox". If he can use them right and limit walks (and repeat his delivery, which is a feat in itself), he won't be overpowering, but he may develop into a decent NPB pitcher by keeping hitters off balance. Because even the breaking pitches aren't spectacular, I don't think he is a guy who could come to the MLB and have real success. 

Arismendy Alcantara Scouting Report

Arismendy Alcantara is a small middle infielder (listed at 5-10 160) that was signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Chicago Cubs in 2010. 

He has been used almost exclusively as a pinch runner/pinch fielder in the Dominican Winter League, but did get an at-bat on Wednesday night (in which he grounded out to end an extra inning game). Even with the platoon advantage (he is a switch hitter who was hitting right-handed against a left-handed pitcher), he didn't seem to have very good plate discipline and he sometimes come out of his swing.

He is not a player that ever really appears in Cubs' prospect lists but he played in A + as a 21 year old (actually he was 20 for the whole actual season). The average age in the Florida State League was 22.7 years old. Despite this, he had a good year with the bat, with a 110 wOBA + and 124 OPS +. This was good for 30th in the league in wOBA (out of hitters with at least 300 plate appearances). More impressively, Alcantara was younger than 26 of the 29 above him. The Cubs Florida State League affiliate Daytona played basically neutral in 2012 (99 one year Park Factor), but he was much more effective at home than he was on the road (the ISO was basically the same, the difference was mainly BABIP). His switch hitting is paying off as well, as he was equally effective from both sides according to OPS in 2012, with better peripherals as a right-hander and more power as a left-hander. He seems to be an average/BABIP dependent hitter, as he doesn't walk much (doesn't have a big strikeout rate, but it is too high for his walk rate) and doesn't hit for much power. He is a ground-ball hitter, though his ground-ball rate did drop in 2012. At the plate, it seems like he has some work to do mechanically. Despite taking no real stride, he loads up with a front leg kick. This isn't the best way to start and he doesn't have a swing that would make any opposing player jealous. I actually saw some video of him before 2012, and it seems that he did not have this load. Perhaps it is ironic that he had a better season with it, or perhaps it is a timing mechanism that works for him. 

After stealing just 8 bases and being caught 8 times in 2011, Alcantara was much more efficient in 2012, stealing 25 bases and was caught just 4 bases. Part of the struggles in 2011 may have to do with leg injuries, as he has had DL stints in each of the past 2 years. However, one would not have expected him to have had the success on the bases he had in 2012 if they were bothering him. Overall, you are seeing improvements in his overall game, as his ISO, Stolen Base success, and Speed Score have all went up over his 3 years (without repeating levels), and he has been dropping his strikeout rate as well (I am not counting 2009, as he spent the year in the Dominican Summer League, which is somewhat of a different animal statistically). His speed score was 8.1 in 2012, which was 2nd to only teammate Matt Szczur in the Florida State League (it was also in the top 40 in the minor leagues as a whole, tied with Brett Jackson and Jimmy Paredes). Basically, he is fast, and a good baserunner as well (Baseball Prospectus gives him a positive baserunner and the Baseball Cube gives him a 85 out of 100 on speed).

Both the data (RTZ, FRAA, and Range Factor) and the scouting reports say he needs to work on his defense. However, he played almost exclusively shortstop in 2012 (after splitting time better short/2B/3B in previous seasons). While athleticism obviously does not always translate to good defense, both his age and speed at least give you a reason to think that he will improve.

Whether or not his defense develops determines whether or not he is a MLB player for me. If he becomes at least a decent to average defender, he could be a slap hitting utility infielder that you could use late in games on the bases. Because his plate discipline needs so much work, I have to imagine that he is going to find AA in 2013 pretty tough. 

Asia Series: Perth Heat and Lotte Giants

Here are some notes on the Perth Heat of the Australian Baseball League and the Lotte Giants of the Korean Baseball Organization, who played in the Asia Series earlier this week.

Corey Adamson is a 20 year old that was signed out of Australia by the Padres and has been in their system since 2009. He has made it to A-ball, but has really struggled offensively, not putting up good numbers at any level. Here is some video I took of him, and you will notice that he does not have a good swing:

 Adamson was fooled badly on breaking pitches and off-speed, chasing way out of the zone.

Adam Welker another LHB, is listed at just 5-11 looks taller than that. He was picked in the 44th round by the St. Louis Cardinals in 2010. He has good build, but like Adamson, he really struggled with breaking pitches. In the minors, he has had some success, as the 24 year old had a OPS + of over 110 and wOBA + of 104 in AA this year. He hits a lot of ground-balls, but walks some and doesn't strike out a ton. He is not much of a runner, even though he played some centerfield this year.

Michael Ohlman was the catcher in the Orioles organization that was suspended for 50 games for using drugs of abuse (not PEDs). After being suspended, he went on to have his best offensive season of his minor league career. In the game, he had some pretty weak swings on outside pitches (it does make some sense to note that the KBO is a more advanced league than the lower minors). His plate discipline does seem to be an issue, especially on breaking pitches, but he does have good size and we will see if the increase in power was fluky or part of his development. He was picked in the 11th round by the Orioles out of high school in 2009 and has been mostly stuck in A-ball. 

Seung-Jun Song was signed by the Red Sox way back in 1999 for 800,000 dollars and was rated as the 60th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America in 2002. Song would never make it to the Majors though, as his good numbers in the lower levels did not quite translate to AA or AAA (where he was still okay, with ERAs just over 4). Since 2007, he has been pitching in his home country in the KBO for the Lotte Giants. In the game against Perth, Song hit 90.5 MPH and according to his scouting report, he can hit 92.38. You saw him break off the curve in the video above, and he showed he can throw it for strikes. Despite this, he had really spotty control, especially with the fastball. When he was on, he was locating well to the outside corner to lefties. Song has a good 81.22 MPH to 84.32 MPH slider with late break. He also showed off the forkball, which broke like a really nasty changeup. He really dominated the hitters with those three breaking pitches when he controlled them. His heat map kind of gives you that impression as well. He isn't afraid to live in the strike zone, and he also throws low forkballs and sliders:

You can see both why he was a prospect and why he failed as a prospect. The delivery is pretty messy and his landing point seemed inconsistent. It doesn't look like he has average MLB stuff, mainly because the fastball is fringy and he hasn't exactly been overly successful in Korea thanks to his command, which is a shame considering how good his breaking pitches can be when he is on.

I wrote last year that there were no KBO hitters that were MLB prospects, at least not statistically. However, here are a couple of scouting reports as we try to see if that is true scouting wise. 

Min Ho Kang:
Despite being a catcher, Kang was one of Lotte's best hitters this year with a .822 OPS. Here is some video of him hitting (Independent Leaguer Virgil Vasquez is the pitcher.):

That swing doesn't seem to be workable, as it is far too violent, uncontrolled, and long. His spray chart shows that he relies heavily on pulling the ball, and that is where all his power comes from:

Behind the plate, his receiving skills were pretty poor. I can't imagine you would want him back there ideally, probably making him a first baseman.

Sung Heon Hong is an outfielder with Lotte that also had some solid numbers.

 This is a cleaner swing than Kang's, but it is still really long. He has a pretty good eye, but I think there are a lot of offensive flaws to overcome for a guy who doesn't look like he has a lot of tools. His spray chart shows that he uses both sides of the fields pretty well and hits for power to all fields:

Dominican Winter League Notes: Ramirez, Hanson, Sosa

Here are some notes on three players I saw in the Dominican Winter League on November 2nd:

Jose Ramirez is a 20 year old Indians shortstop. He has been a good hitter through out his (short so far) minor league career. Ramirez is a Switch hitter.
and does not have the prettiest swing from the left side. He seems to want to to go the other way from both sides. I hate to use the "ball jumps off his bat" cliche, but he does seem to have some legitimate pop despite not swinging very hard. He doesn't have great ISOs or power numbers, mainly relying on a OBP and high average ability.
Here is some hasty video I took of him from the broadcast:

I get about 4.10 to first on the video, and he pulls up a little at the end, so he is pretty quick obviously (he stole 15 bases this year).

Ramirez was playing 2nd base when I saw him in the Dominican Winter League while Hector Gomez (who I thought looked bat at the plate with a really aggressive and violent swing but pretty good out in the field. He has a really strong arm) played shortstop. He doesn't really show up as a big time prospect, but he hits and plays in the middle of the infield, which at least makes him interesting.

Juan Sosa of the Phillies has a really good looking change/slider at 84 MPH that breaks down and looks like a decent strikeout pitch. The smallish (6-2 165, looks smaller, or at least did on the screen I was watching) reliever (started 5 games this year in Advanced A, but pitched mainly out of the bullpen) really struggled when I saw him, giving up a lot of hard hit balls.
Here is some video of Sosa throwing from 2010:

That delivery seems to provide him some deception without being very quirky or hard to repeat. In fact, he seems to be throwing very free and easy.

Alen Hanson of the Pittsburgh Pirates organization has a gigantic swing that is both long and violent. The switch hitter will fall for breaking balls but the 20 year old showed off some impressive power in West Virginia (A ball) in 2012. The park does play a little hitter friendly, but he had the 2nd best ISO on the team, and a better ISO on the road than at home. He was slightly better from the right side, but was still good from both sides. He also had a solid K/BB with a good walk percentage (though that can certainly be misleading in the minors), so perhaps his impatience was fueled by facing older and more savy pitchers (or perhaps he has the sort of fake patience that you see in many minor league bats that doesn't translate in the upper levels or the Majors. Time will tell, but the numbers seem to suggest he is advanced for his age).

His reputation is of a player with good speed (the Baseball Cube rates him as a 97 out of 100!) and he put up a 7.9 speed score this season (after scores of 8.3 and 9.3 in lower levels). Assuming that the score would translate to the Majors (if someone has done a study on speed scores translating from the minors to the majors, I would like to know), this would be comparable to Angel Pagan, who I have at a 3.87 to first and Eric Longenhagen (@longenhagen) has a 4.00. That is fast. Defensively, he plays shortstop, along with 2nd and 3rd (and some games in LF). It doesn't seem like he will stick there according to many scouting reports (though some are more optimistic), but if the swing and bat plays, it won't matter that much.

Bullpen Prospects in the VSL: Mavare, Freeman, Uveido

Here are some notes on 3 minor league relievers I watched in the Venezuelan Winter League on Wednesday:

Jose Mavare (also goes as Arlett Jose Mavare Reyes, which makes searching for him confusing) is a Texas Rangers reliever that pitched at Hickory at the age of 20 in 2012. He is pretty small for a RHP at 6-0 175, but since being signed, he has pitched in 100 games (DSL included) and has a 2.41 ERA, 1.9 GB/FB, and 11.22 K/9IP. In 80 innings in A-ball in 2012, Mavare struck out over 30% of the batters he faced, good for a 2.87 FIP and 2.67 SIERA.

He has these numbers with just a 89-91 MPH fastball. He seems to throw an occasional sink with it as well. When you see him pitch, you notice his really easy delivery, something that would seem important to a guy with his small size.

His breaking ball was at 81 MPH according to the ESPN gun, and looked like a slider. Overall, Mavare seems to have pretty good command and a little bit of deception (which would explain the numbers). He is going to have to rely on pitchability since he doesn't have anything that is even close to plus stuff. To me, whether he is successful in the upper minors or not depends on his breaking ball. If it develops nicely, then he can pitch off of it with his fastball/sinker combo. It is really hard to argue with the numbers, especially considering his age, but the upper levels will tell us more about Mavare.

Justin Freeman is a reliever in the Reds system. He is 26 and pitched in AA for the 3rd year in a row (he was promoted late in the season to AA in 2010). In his 2 full seasons in AA, he has a 4.00 FIP and 3.53 SIERA. He improved vastly in 2012 (which you would expect for an older player), but the numbers are unimpressive. He was picked in the 32nd round by the Reds in 2008, so it may be even surprising that he has made it this far.

Freeman is another undersized righty, and he has sort of a weird delivery. He throws 93 MPH with some sink but I didn't really see a breaking ball. After being good in AA in 2012, Freeman has really struggled in Venezuela (small sample sizes obviously apply).

Ronald Uveido of the Blue Jays organization, has made it to the PCL in each of the last 2 seasons. Originally he was signed out of Venezuela by the Mariners, but was released after one really good statistical year in the VSL. The Pirates picked him up and he stayed with the organization until 2010 when he was traded for Dana Eveland. At 6-2, he is a little taller than the two pitchers listed above.
While he has sat at 91-93 (touching 95) in his career, he was throwing just 88-89 MPH in the VWL on Wednesday. He also had a 86-87 MPH 2-seamer that he was keeping up and not controlling well. 
At 81 MPH he throws what seems to be a splitter, but according to everything I have read, it is a changeup. Baseball America rated it as the best changeup in the Pirates system in 2009. It does break glove side and has pretty big drop. It is his strikeout pitch (he has averaged a strikeout an inning in his minor league career) and he doesn't seem to mind throwing it to lefties or righties.

Scouting Reports on Francisco Pena and Matthew Way

Francisco Pena is big catcher (6-2 230) in the Mets system. Pena has a
big swing and he looks aggressive at the plate. It looks like you can fool him with breaking balls. Pena clearly has some pull power and I watched him pull a big homer down the line in Dominican Winter League (usually a league that suppresses offensive numbers) play against a lefty.
Statistically, he has had really low OBPs (.289 over the last two years across A+ and AA) and hasn't turned the power into good ISOs or SLGs. He did walk in his short stint in AA, but had a low BABIP without much power, which suppressed his numbers quite a bit.

Behind the plate, it looks like he is a calm receiver, and moves the glove reasonably well for framing, but did seem to snap at the ball at least once.

Matthew Way has had a weird career. He is a small left-handed pitcher at 6-1, less than 200 pounds. He was drafted in the 5th round by the Phillies out of Washington State (after being drafted in the 36th round by the Giants in the previous year) in 2009. He was very successful in the minors with a 3.48 ERA and 8.9 K/9IP in A-ball. However, injuries destroyed his career and he was eventually released.

So after not throwing a single pitch in 2011, Way found himself as a 25 year old free agent. He latched on to 2 different independent teams, and pitched pretty well other than a spike in his walk rate. Now he is pitching in the Dominican Winter League.

Way is definitely a soft-tossing/deception lefty. He brings back his arm behind him before coming 3/4s after a somewhat high leg kick. The fastball looks okay, in the mid to upper 80s that mainly tails. His command of it was very spotty when I saw him in the DWL, and he didn't have a good outing. He also threw what looked like a sinker/slider that had the best movement. It wasn't a sharp break, but it broke both horizontally and vertically.
Way can throw his changeup for strikes, but it isn't an exceptional pitch in movement. When he was drafted, this was his best pitch (as you would expect from a soft-tossing lefty). I didn't think it was his best pitch when I watched him.
If he goes back to throwing strikes, Way looks like a AAA lefty and emergency guy in the bigs. I wouldn't ever let him start on a big league mound, but he could be a reliever and possibly get some lefties out. I would be surprised if he didn't get a minor league contract and start out with someone in AA or AAA this year, left handed arms are always coveted, especially ones that have had success as a pro.

Some Venezuelan Winter League Scouting Reports (Aguilas de Zulia)

The Venezuelan Winter League season kicked off on Thursday night. Here are reports on 5 players from the team Aguilas de Zulia.

Jose Flores is a switch hitting infielder, with a not very pretty and almost bailout swing from the left side. He will run into a ball and show surprising power if you put it on the inside of the plate and it looks like he can run. He also plays a solid looking 3rd base. Statistically, the 24 year old has been pretty unimpressive, with a flash of success in A - (109 wOBA +), deceptive California League statistics, and a whole lot of mediocrity to bad hitting in between. He hits a ton of grounders (something that isn't surprising considering the swing), and doesn't walk or strikeout a lot. He has a utility/NL bench/AAAA player ceiling.

Justin Henry's swing isn't quick, as he is lefty that you can get inside on. The swing has a little bit of a chop in it too. He has a really tall build and at least had what looked like decent plate discipline. He has always been somewhat of an "empty average guy", with a minor league batting average of nearly .300 (with a decent walk rate) and a slugging percentage under his OBP. He spent the entire 2012 in AAA, where he had a 107 wRC + at age 27. He is not really a prospect, but probably more of an org. guy, as he can move around position wise and could be a utility player for the Tigers next year (there is a good chance he is better than Ryan Raburn, although his AAA numbers aren't as good).

Ender Inciarte is a small 21 year old left handed hitter that plays mainly centerfield. He has a little bit of a bailout swing and seems to have some kind of shoulder drag. It is not quite a hitch, but it works in that way. It was probably not the best platediscipline on display, but he will flick the ball the other way with relative ease. He has already been in the organization for 5 years and has a .714 career OPS and hasn't reached AA (he has played in the Midwest League for at least part of 3 seasons). However, his first shot in the California League was relatively successful, with a 104 wOBA +. He is a good contact guy with a mediocre but not terrible walk rate.His game relies on speed, as he had a 8.8 speed score in the California League, and 84 out of 100 speed rating by the Baseball Cube.

Jose Sanchez has a really effortless and repeatable delivery, but wasn't throwing hard. His release point did seem to suffer on fastballs and they stayed up a few times. Other than that, he had solid command. The former Met farmhand has spent the last two years in the Mexican League (after a terrible 2010 in Independent Ball). He has over 350 AA innings, but was mediocre at best, with a 4.57 ERA/6.4 K/9IP/3.2 BB/9IP. He threw just 17 innings in the Mexican League in 2012. Sanchez has a pretty slow curve along with what looks like a slider. The slider doesn't have exceptionally hard break and drifts to the glove side. Even with platoon advantage, he seems to work to that side.

Deivis Mavarez is right-handed sidearmer. He had a little bit of control problems and his landing point is a little messy. The ball moves like a change like many side-arming/submarine pitchers. He did a decent job of keeping the ball low overall.The 26 year old was originally signed by the Astros in 2005, but struggled in the Venezuala summer league and was released after 2 years. The Rays picked him up and watched him have success in the same league, with a ton of strikeouts and a good ERA. He was brought to the States, and had good numbers throughout, only to be let go after 2011 after never being promoted past A+. He really failed to be dominant against righties in 2011, with a high walk rate and a low strikeout rate. As far as I can tell, he didn't pitch anywhere in 2012.

Reds sign Wirfin Obisbo (Updated)

The Reds signed pitcher Wirfin Obisbo to a minor league contract. Obisbo has spent the past 4 years in Japan pitching as both a reliever and a starter. He had a pretty pedestrian PE in that time of 2.09. This obviously means he doesn't project to be a Major League pitcher. He really struggled with homers, giving up 1.4 HR/9IP per inning. According to NPB Tracker's velocity charts, Obisbo throws 92.5 MPH at the most and about 91 on average. So, he has average to slightly above average velocity. In 2006 he was actually in the Reds organization, pitching for the Reds' Dominican Summer League team. There he pitched pretty well striking out 10.6 batters per 9 innings and earning a 2.04 ERA. One of his teammates was Enerio Del Rosario, a pitcher who has pitched slightly below replacement level in the Majors. Obispo had a slightly higher ERA but a much better strikeout rate. Obispo was slightly older than his teammates at age 21, when his average teammate was 20.3 (Del Rosario was 20 as well). Pedro Viola, who has also pitched below replacement in the Majors, was part of the team as well, and had the exact same ERA and a slightly better strikeout rate. Viola was a few years older though. It should be noted, like the Dominican Winter Leagues, the league was a very pitcher friendly environment. The best hitter on the team had an OPS of just .700 (the Reds' team seems to have been pretty bad though, as the Cubs' best guy had an OPS of .796, and a few players in the league had an OPS of better than .800). So it would seem that one would have to be even harsher when applying the usually A metric of 2 runs added to the ERA from A-ball to MLB. This is not real good news for Obispo, as we would be talking about an ERA well over 4 in the Majors (which would make a lot of sense when factoring in his mediocrity in the NPB, with a projected ERA of 4.74). At age 27, this should be Obispo's prime season, and we would expect him to be an above replacement pitcher, but not an average one. Obispo is the kind of player these minor league free agent contracts are designed for, they may be helpful for a short time, but its not anyone you want to actually depend on.

UPDATE:

 Obispo signed a minor league contract with the Braves for the 2013 season. He did not pitch in the Majors for the Reds in 2012, instead splitting it between AA and AAA. In 10 games (3 starts) with AAA, he struggled, with a 4.08 FIP and 5.53 SIERA, walking more guys than he struck out with a bad (36.2 %) GB rate. In AA, his basic numbers were helped by a .194 BABIP, but he was still decent with a 3.41 SIERA (.81 points better than league average) and 3.96 FIP (.12 points worse than league average). He pitched in a hitter friendly park compared to league average (the Southern League is a pitcher's league), but struck out over 25 % of batters and less than 10%. His ground-ball rate was still terrible (2nd worse on the team out of pitchers with at least 5 innings), but the line drive rate (if you trust it) was also low. Here is some video of him I took from him pitching in the Dominican Winter League:

Scouting Report: Hiroyuki Kawahara

In 2011, a young Japanese pitcher named Hiroyuki Kawahara pitched in the Puerto Rican winter league. The 21 year old lefty is not by any means "crafty" or "soft-tossing". According to scouting reports, he throws about 91 but has hit 96 before, and often.He was originally drafted in the NPB but there wasn't room in the rotation for him so he had been pitching in the minor league equivalent of the NPB. However, he is expected to take a leap and join the rotation of the Hawks in 2012. In Puerto Rico he had a great groundball ratio of 2.44 GB/FB. He gave up just 1 homer in 26.1 innings (7 starts, less than 4 innings a start). On the other hand, his ERA was 4.78. He somehow walked more batters than he struck out (control problems was originally part of his scouting report when he was just 18), walking 27, striking out 17 (5.86 K/9IP). He had big time splits, with a 6.19 ERA against righties and 2.61 ERA against lefties (even though his BAA was higher against lefties, he didn't walk many or give up many extra base hits to lefties). His numbers also would have been better if he didn't struggle so much with runners in scoring position (he gave up a BAA of .321 in those situations compared to .233). In most baseball circles LOB% is considered more luck than skill. One would expect this number to get better with a larger sample size, which would make his overall numbers better. He has had some should and elbow problems, and he was drilled in the head by a line drive earlier this year, but none of this seems too serious. Kawahara is an exciting prospect, and it should be fun to see him pitch in the NPB for the next few years, and at the very least could be a dominant left-handed specialist if made available to the U.S.

Scouting Report: Angel Castro

Angel Castro is a pitcher that has been pitching in the Dominican winter league. He throws 95-96 MPH (he went up to 97 according to one radar gun in the Dominican Republic). In the Dominican he had a 1.86 GB/FB rate with a 2.53 ERA. Overall, he has a pretty impressive -2.73 PE with a .253 OBP against. This projects to a .287 OBP against in the Majors, which is pretty dominant. 

He spent 2011 in the Mexican League and gave up an ERA of 5.45 despite having a 3.00 GB/FB and 7.7 K/9IP. He gave up an amazingly bad 12 H/9IP and a WHIP over 1.8. He suffered from a .389 BABIP that one can deduce is from a bad defense, since he gave up 6 unearned runs as well, and his FIP was 3.88. He did keep the ball in the ballpark with a .5 HR/9IP rate.

AA is where Castro had problems, as he had a 4.48 ERA in 64.1 innings, with a 1.477 WHIP and 6.2 K/9IP. Most of the problems stemmed from his 18 inning stint with the Phillies organization, where he had a 49.7 LOB% and .369 BABIP. His stint with the Tigers in AA wasn't that bad with a 3.96 FIP. This still isn't very good and projects to a ERA of around 5.40.

After watching Castro throw a few times in the Dominican this off-season, I don't have much doubt that he can pitch in the big leagues. It would be a real shame if he has to go back to the Mexican League to pitch.

Projecting Leonys Martin

The Rangers signed Leonys Martin to a 5 years 15.5 million contract back in May of 2011. He played 29 games in AA and had a .435 OBP, but that dropped significantly in AAA, where he had a .316 OBP (and .630 OPS in the hitter friendly PCL). Neither of these sample sizes are particularly helpful.

In his last 3 years in Cuba (his 3 seasons with more than 200 AB) Martin batted .345/.477/.518. Clay Davenport projects 263/.339/.399 and a 2.1 WAR for Martin in 2012. Davenport also has a Yeonis Cespedes projection, where he turns his Cuban numbers of .333/.434/.667 into .251/.309/.451. This is a .082/.125/.216 regression. This turns Martin into a .263/.352/.392, so really close.
Davenport also says that Cuban baseball can be graded like "low A ball." According to this (and our A metric): Martin projects to be a .428 OBP and .451 SLG (.879 OPS). This is nowhere close to Davenport's own projections, which means our A-ball projection is not helpful for Cuban statistics.

So Martin seems to be a guy with an average batting average, solid OBP, and under average slugger with .744 OPS. This is a 1.52 Simple WAR. According to Runs Created formula, Martin is projected to create about 82 runs in 140 games, or 17 runs more than an average hitter. Defensively, Martin had a 2.45 Range Factor per Game in the minors. 2.59 Range Factor per Game is about league average for center fielders. This means that Martin will get to almost 20 less balls than an average center fielder. If we assume that each time Martin doesn't get to a ball that an average fielder would get, he cost his team one base, or about 5 runs overall if he plays 140 games. This still leaves him responsible for 12 positive runs more than an average player would. 

To be worth his contract, he really needs to be about league average, or provide 5 wins over replacement in his 5 years. According to Davenport's WAR projection, he will be worth over the about 3 million dollars a year. So it seems according to the projections and all metrics, Martin will be worth the contract the Rangers gave him in 2011. Now to see if this actually becomes the case. 

Tigers make big signing

The Tigers made big news on Tuesday, signing a huge big ticket free agent to a 9 year 214 million dollar deal. However, this post isn't about Prince. The Tigers also signed Warwick Saupold, an Australian Pitcher who was pitching for the Perth Heat in the Australian Baseball League. In 70 innings this season, he had an ERA of 1.41 and WHIP of .93. This projects to about a 3.53 ERA in the MLB according to our minor league and ABL metrics. However, the previous year for Saupold was much less pleasant. In the 2010-2011 season, he had an awful 5.52 ERA in 44 innings. Is this just a case of things evening out with larger sample sizes, or was there another explanation. Just on the surface, while he still got more groundballs than flyballs, he had less groundballs last season than this season. He gave up 5 homers last season, while he only gave up 2 this year. Strangely, he had a better strikeout in his bad season than his good season. This would suggest a bit of BABIP luck, but also the factoring of the difference in flyballs and homers. So which Saupold will the Tigers be getting? That is very hard to predict, but one would figure that the more recent season should hold more weight, and that his improved groundball and home run rate is probably not flukey. That is to say, there seems to be a genuine improvement from the previous year to this season. So it would make sense to call his 2011 season that projects to a 3.53 ERA his ceiling. However, we could create a "floor" for Saupold, using his average from his 2 seasons in the ABL. Overall, he has a 3.00 ERA in 114 innings, which is not quite a full season. This projects to an ERA over 5, meaning a below replacement pitcher. This is a wide range of projections, and keep in mind its a relatively small sample size. While I like his home run rate (.55 HR/9IP overall), his lack of strikeouts are concerning. His best hope is to make it as a groundball pitcher who pitches to contact. While there are some decent pitchers in the MLB, they are highly volatile (for the most part) and not in the elite category. Even though the ERA projection projects a ceiling of middle rotation, I would say the ceiling is likely back of rotation or long reliever. However, even if that happens and he has some success down the road, it would be a nice pickup for the Tigers, and may make some MLB franchises take the ABL more seriously.

Australian Baseball and Minor League Pitching Metric

As the Australian Baseball League 2011 season wraps up, I thought it made sense to come up with a pitching metric to evaluate pitchers pitching in the league. Since we didn't come up with a reliable A and AA pitching metric, I filled out the rest of the spreadsheet with minor league pitchers (from the White Sox system) who had pitched at all 3 levels.

The ABL players that have pitched in A-ball had an average ERA of 3.39 in the ABL. Those same pitchers have a 3.51 ERA in A-ball, a difference of .12. Those pitchers averaged a 1.19 WHIP in A-ball and 1.16 in the ABL, a .03 difference. So there is a slight upgrade from the ABL to A-ball, but the difference is very small, so no one will judge you if you just use the A-ball metric we are about to create and use it on ABL players.
The pitchers on the list that pitched in AA had a 3.16 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in A, and a 3.7 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in AA (a .54 ERA difference and .11 WHIP difference). The pitchers that pitched in AAA had a 3.43 ERA and 1.233 WHIP in AA, and 4.32 ERA and 1.37 WHIP (a .83 ERA difference and .137 WHIP difference).

Dominican Winter League Metric

I picked 50 batters that played at least 20 games in the Dominican Winter League in 2011, and compared the OBP and OPS of their Winter League season and compared it to their MLB or AA numbers (sometimes both). A few didn't have either, so I put their A numbers and then put up just about everyone's A numbers afterwards so we could go ahead and create a A metric. Click the picture to enlarge of course (the best bet is to right click and open in new tab and zoom)

 The average OBP in the DWL by the players surveyed was .313, while the OPS was .662. Of the 24 that have MLB experience (at least enough to qualify, I set the cutoff at about 50 games), they averaged an OBP of .299 and OPS of .664. However, we do have a AA metric, so we will project the players that have AA statistics but no MLB statistics and then we will be able to calculate both a A metric and a DWL metric. Projections are in bold (-.058 OBP from AA to MLB, and -.136 OPS from AA to MLB)

So the 48 Projected/Actual MLB players averaged a .279 OBP and .630 OPS. This means that from DWL to MLB, there is a -.034 OBP and -.032 OPS (which means that the Slugging actually improves a little bit in the MLB, suggesting that the DWL is not exactly a friendly slugging environment). For some perspective on Venezuelan League Statistics, I would direct you here: http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/1/3/2679279/venezuelan-league-stats-carlos-zambrano-bryan-lahair

Now for the A-ball projection. The 34 players we have A-ball and MLB numbers (or projections) for averaged a .342 OBP and .775 OPS in A ball. Those same players averaged a .293 OBP and .659 OPS in the MLB (or MLB projections). This means there is an average regression of -.049 OBP and -.116 OPS.

Australian Baseball League: Mike McGuire

Mike McGuire became the first pitcher in the Australian Baseball League to strikeout 14 people in one game. McGuire spent 2011 in the Phillies organization (he has also spent time in the Indians organization) and has never been above A ball. As mainly a reliever, he has a PE of -.294, mainly because of his great strikeout ration 9 K/9IP. In 2011, despite only giving up .3 HR/9IP, he had a terrible 3.38 PE basically all in relief. Along with a pretty small sample size (29.2 innings), he was destroyed by a BABIP over .400. Despite his ERA over 8, his FIP was less than half than that, under 4. Certainly this would fix his terrible PE. He does walk a little bit too much at 4 per 9 innings, but one would expect that from a strikeout pitcher. It is really difficult to judge the quality of play of the ABL, and considering McGuire's numbers, it seems easy to say it is below A ball (although that would be anecdotal). However, strikeout pitchers always can find jobs in the Major Leagues, so McGuire could be a guy to look out for in the next few years.

Winter League Update: Brian Bogusevic

The Houston Astro's Brian Bogusevic is currently leading the Dominican Winter League in OBP (.433 in 15 games) and is 6th in OPS (.893). His PPG is not very impressive at 1.13, but his ABPP is at 1.79. He is walking 18% of his At-Bats, and has just one more strikeout than walk. So while not a dangerous power hitter, he is being very efficient. Bogusevic has played 106 games with the big league team, and has 1.1 WAR (.6 O-WAR and .5 D-WAR, a great bargain at a little over $400,000). He has an OBP of .335, and OPS of .767, with a PAPP of 2.8. None of this is impressive, but its not bad either. He has an above league average Range Factor for the outfield at 2.54 and the eyeball test has already shown some spectacular defensive plays. However, one has to be extremely cautious of his positive offensive numbers, as his BABIP is .350. It cannot be expected for this to keep up. His Secondary Average is .266, his ISO is .166, and he walks about league average at 8.5%. Not only is he an under-average home run hitter, he is also a groundball hitter, which makes the high BABIP even more unsettling. He sees a lot of pitches and has a 95.64 PPS, which is somewhat comforting. However, because of the small sample size and data-skewing BABIP, it seems helpful to look at his minor league numbers. In 7 seasons (his first couple minor league seasons were as a pitcher), he had a .363 OBP, .770 OPS, 1.08 PPG, and 2.43 PAPP. Again, he isn't a power hitter or "productive" hitter, but he is pretty efficient, has a knack for walking and getting on base, which can be valuable at the bottom or top of the order.

Padres Arizona Fall League Update: Jedd Gyorko

Jedd Gyorko is the Arizona Fall League's OPS leader. With an OBP of .500, and a 2.64 PPG in 14 games with Peoria, Gyorko is giving the Padres lots of hope at 3rd base. Gyorko was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2010 draft, and has a .392 OBP and .909 OPS in A and AA ball. He walks 9.7% of the time in the minors, and has a 1.71 PPG, and 2.32 PAPP. He is an above average home run hitter as 3.3% of his Plate Appearances end with him trotting around the bases. He also has a pretty good range factor for a 3rd baseman at 2.75, meaning he is a pretty good fielder, even if he has been playing a lot of DH in the minors. In college at West Virginia, Gyorko had a 2.54 PPG, 1.71 ABPP, and 1148 OPS. According to the College Metric, he should be a 1.48 PPG, 2.43 ABPP, and .898 OPS hitter. If he can get anywhere close to that, the Padres would be very grateful.

Winter League Update: Jerry Sands

Jerry Sands is not looking real good in the Dominican Winter League right now. In 13 games, he has an OBP of just .302 and an OPS of .706. He does have a 1.08 PPG, and an okay 2.61 ABPP. The big thing you notice is that he is suffering from a .242 BABIP. He is walking 9.4% of his At-Bats which isn't bad. In 2011, he split time between the majors and AAA. Since the Dodgers AAA team is in the PCL and not the International League, our metric won't apply to him because the 2 leagues are so different. However, he had a .344 OBP, .931 OPS, 2.11 PPG, and 2.43 PAPP. He was certainty a powerful hitter in AAA, just not crazily efficient, but it still equals a 2.69 WAR (just for fun, according to the International metric, he would have a 1.2 O-WAR, 1.71 PPG, .298 OBP, and 3 PAPP). In the Majors, he had a 0 WAR (.3 O-WAR, -.3 D-WAR) in 227 PA. Despite struggling OBPs in the Winter League and AAA, his OBP in the majors was a .338, with a .727 OPS. He had a .87 PPG, and 2.87 PAPP, numbers that aren't terrible but aren't impressive. He walked 11 percent of the time, with a Secondary Average of .263, and offensive winning percentage of .496. He is an under average home run hitter, and only had an ISO of .136. Because he sees just over 4 pitches per plate appearance, his PPS is pretty good at 97.06. His BABIP was a little high at .319, and if that evens out, then it would hurt Sands' above average 2011 season. When looking at his minor league numbers, it seems probable that his power will develop at the major league level.

Chris Leroux the Pirates secret weapon

So far in the Dominican Winter League, Chris Leroux leads the league in ERA, with a .60 in 15 innings as a starter. His WHIP is just .666 and his overall PE is -5.1. In the Majors, he has played with the Marlins and currently with the Pirates. 2011 was the only positive WAR year at .5 in 25 relief innings (-.4 career WAR in 3 years). He was very solid in 2011, with a -1.83 PE (his career PE is a pretty terrible 2.076). He has given up a career OPS of .765, but in 2011 it was just .599. He didn't give up a single home run in 2011 and had an incredible TR of 13.21. To show just how dominant he was in his short time, although his ERA was 2.88, but his FIP was 2.07. He accomplished what he did while giving up a .333 BABIP. One has to expect that to go down, and that will make him an incredible pitcher. It appears that he is Winter Ball to build up strength to be a starter. At 25 innings, his 2011 was certainly a small sample size, but the Pirates obviously saw something and want to try to put him in the rotation. He isn't arbitration eligible until after the 2013 season and won't become a free agent until 2017. Leroux may be a good Pirates pitcher for a large amount of time.

Ricardo Nanita: The Blue Jay who won't be brought up

Ricardo Nanita is the leader in OBP early on in the Dominican Winter League, so far his crude Runs Created metric is an amazing 14.46, with a 1.47 ABPP, 2.625 PPG, and 1.448 OPS. It is a small sample for sure. In Nanita's 2011 minor league season, he has an OBP of .378, OPS of .858, 1.33 PPG, and 2.18 ABPP. He has done his time in the minors, already spending 9 seasons in the minors already. In that long, large sample career, he has a .367 OBP (in 142 games in AAA his OBP is .393!), 1.16 PPG, .794 OPS, and 2.64 PAPP. This is a simple WAR of 2.66. He is about an average outfielder fielding wise it seems, so that shouldn't be the reason he is not in the major leagues. He is a slightly above average walker, and as shown above, he has pop (.192 ISO in AAA in 2011). He had a runs created of 139 in AAA in 2011, although with a .376 BABIP it is hard to expect that to continue. Nanita seems to have good numbers and metrics in the minors and winter leagues, why isn't he being brought up?