I saw Jacob Stone pitch for Weatherford College on February 8th (I wrote about the rest of Weatherford team here), and wanted to write a whole post on him. The right-handed pitcher was drafted in the 39th round by the Cincinnati Reds in 2012 after throwing 61 innings as a freshman, striking out 1 less hitter than he threw innings in 11 starts, with a 2.4 K/BB (no batters faced data). The 19 year old will turn 20 in April, and actually turned down a football scholarship to pitch at Weatherford
Despite this, Stone is not a big guy for a pitcher (listed at 6-1 200 by Baseball Reference and 6-0 205 by Weatherford's official game program), so the first reaction is that he will be a reliever as a pro. He could theoretically add a little weight, so a little more velocity could be coming in the future. I found his warm up routine a little strange as he consistently wouldn't get on the mound for his first 2 or three tosses every inning. Here is a little video of him:
Stone had some command issues early on, causing scouts to really shake their heads. However, he showed some good command in the 2nd and 3rd, only to be squeezed by the umpire. He walked the first 3 hitters in the game but really settled down after that. He wasn't putting hitters away early because he was throwing way too many fastballs, and not many of them were for strikes. A few of his fastballs showed a little bit of sink. I tried to log his pitches by pitch type, velocity, and location. After the first couple of innings, I quit listing velocity as it made it easier for me to write notes on other players and still log every pitch (I threw out and just ignored a few pitches because of mistakes). With that said, he was still throwing about 88-90 in the middle innings. I inputted them into a spreadsheet that you can look through below (they aren't in order and are just sorted by pitch below):
The curveball breaks both horizontally and vertically, and is good when spiked. He also threw a couple of really nice strikes with them. He located some really well and I thought it was his best pitch.
He threw a change a few times to lefties, and it did not look like a good pitch (or one he could get down). A couple of other times he threw what looked sort of like the change but could have been bad curves. I just left them out so I didn't misclassify them.
For whatever it is worth, he gave up just 1 hit in 5 innings. There was 1, maybe 2 hard hit balls in the outing. But as noted above, scouts seemed generally disappointed in the outing.
According to the pitches I collected, Stone threw 3 changeups (4.2 %), 23 curves (32.3 %), and 45 fastballs (63.4 %). So the fastball percentage is rather normal, but the curve percentage is really high. You often see a pitcher, especially a relief pitcher, throw sliders over 30% of the time, but that many curves seem rare. Wandy Rodriguez was the only qualified starter to throw more than 30% curves, and it was lower than Stone's. Just 4 MLB pitchers that pitched at least 50 innings in 2012 threw more than 32.3 % curves, while 33 pitchers threw at least that many sliders. It is enough to reconsider pitch classification, but it is clearly not hard enough to be a slider.
Out of the fastballs I kept the velocity for, Stone averaged 89.68 MPH. Obviously you can project another MPH or two, and if he moves to the bullpen, he could add another MPH or two, but his fastball most compares to Brandon Lyon and A.J. Griffin's in the Majors. His curveball averaged 74.46 MPH, closest to Nathan Eovaldi's curveball. An 80 MPH changeup is also below average, close to both A.J. Griffin and Joe Vargas.
Here is his very simple heat map (agnostic towards balls and strikes):
4
6
5
11
4
5
5
20
11
As you can see, thanks to both his curveball, and his ability to sink or at least his fastball low, Stone threw the ball low in the outing I saw him. This most likely limits his strikeout abilities/helps his ground-ball abilites, and also shows that he seems to realize his stuff isn't plus, and as most pitchers with below average fastballs tend to work low, Stone works low as well.
Stone obviously isn't a great draft prospect, but he is draftable as a 2 pitch average fastball reliever. While A.J. Griffin's name came up a couple of times, I don't think Stone has the tools to be a starter like Griffin does, seems to locate the ball low more than Griffin, and doesn't have the fastball movement like Griffin does. I am not sure what round Stone deserves to go in, but I would think he is a 2nd half of the draft guy, past the 20th round, depending on signability. This is really cliche, but a lot depends on his command. My guess is that as a reliever, he will be able to command like I saw him command in the 2nd and 3rd innings especially, keeping the ball low and throwing a lot of curveballs and fastball/sinkers. If he is able to do that, he may not miss many bats, but he could get a lot of guys out in the minors with that stuff.
In the WBC qualifiers, Royals right-handed pitcher Sugar Ray Marimon has been pitching for his home country of Columbia. I got to watch one of his outings streamed online.
Marimon was showcasing a 92-93 MPH fastball early that got down to 89-90 (which is somewhat backwards velocity wise as his first inning was his best velo inning). The velocity may be a little low because we are at the end of a long season, and he threw 134 innings in the 2012 regular season. It is said that he can get it up to 95 MPH. It was usually staying high but the slender pitcher (listed at 6-1 168) has a really easy delivery. The off-speed he used was a 77 MPH curve that breaks almost like a soft slider. It has decent break but it isn't sharp break, I just don't know how many people he is going to fool with it. He was extremely fastball heavy and I didn't see a third pitch, but according to Clint Scoles (awesome first name) of Pinetarpress.com: His 3rd pitch, a changeup, is "79-81 mph. shows fade and tumbling action. Useful pitch against lefties, and he maintains good arm speed. It’s another average offering."
When Baseball America released their top 10 Royals' prospects, Marimon was nowhere to be found and wasn't even mentioned. When Coast2Coast Prospects ranked the prospects in the Royals system, Marimon was all the way at number 36. In 2012, Marimon split the season between A + and AA. He was a bit old for the Carolina League at 23.75 years old (he is now 24) when the average hitter was 22.5 years old and the average pitcher was 22.9 years old. He also pitched in a very friendly home park (90 one year Park Factor) and it showed. In his 6 home starts, he had a 2.98 FIP and 2.91 SIERA with a decent ground-ball rate and microscopic BABIP of .242. In his 8 road starts, he was still mostly above league average but both his ground-ball rate and strikeout rate disappeared, leading to a very pedestrian 4.40 SIERA (3.71 FIP). The strange thing is that his home run rate actually was larger at home. He was promoted to AA and made 12 starts there, really struggling with a 5.45 FIP and 5.49 SIERA. The Royals' AA park is an extreme hitters park, with a one year Park Factor of 110, but weirdly he pitched a little bit better at home (with both his FIP and SIERA being over 6.00 on the road). Since the average age in the Texas League is 24, this is where Marimon was supposed to be, and he pitched poorly (meaning a repeat of the level, with him being a touch old for the level, is in order).
Since joining the Royals system in 2007 (including pitching in the Dominican Summer League that year), Marimon has a 1.97 K/BB, a little under what you would like. While his walk rate is okay, he has never been a guy that has struck out a lot of batters (18.1 % over his last 200 innings). He also doesn't get many ground-balls or a good number of infield fly-balls. According to the AA data (which is always sketchy), he is a strike thrower (63% is solid for the minors, and not bad in the Majors), but having to pitch in Northwest Arkansas and then AAA Omaha (104 one year Park Factor) is nothing short of the Labours of Hercules. If he can figure it out at those levels, then he is a big league pitcher. I don't see him as a starter, or even an impact reliever, but he could be a swing man or low leverage guy to eat up some innings with that easy delivery. Over the last two years, he has actually shown reverse splits, so I don't think it would make any sense to use him as a specialty reliever.
Kyle Gibson had Tommy John surgery last year and has been working his way back this year. The first round pick in 2009 made his first 2012 start in AAA (in 2010-2011 he was pretty good in the International League with a 8.11 K/9IP, 2.59 BB/9IP, and .89 HR/9IP) on Saturday and I was able to catch most of it online. Gibson has a bit of pause in his delivery, but nothing too dramatic. The arm action is mainly over the top and the delivery is a little strange. He really takes advantage of his height (and frame) by doing so, but one wonders if this is why he was injured in the first place.
Gibson's fastball hit 93 MPH and he can throw it straight high above the zone and also run it down low in the form of a moving fastball. He did throw a straight fastball to a right-hander (Matt Tuiasosopo) down low and away and got a whiff for a strikeout. He showed the ability to keep the ball low for the most part and he should be able to get plenty of ground-balls, which is important to the Twins.
Gibson can throw a rare changeup for strikes. It doesn't have a lot of movement but it does have good speed differential. It is the worst pitch out of the 4 or 5 (depending on whether you want to count the 2-seamer as a separate pitch) Gibson throws.
The curveball was also solid, getting him swings and misses with nice break. He can throw it for strikes and it is of the harder curve variety, but it isn't a slider (at least not in its break). He has a slider that is obviously harder and more of a dirt swing and miss pitch.
The amount of good options he has is very encouraging for Gibson and the Twins. He can keep hitters guessing with a few pitches he can throw for strikes and a 2 put out pitches (the slider and the fastball) and has the stuff to do it against good hitters. Many times, you see a guy with good stuff/movement/velocity, but no idea how to locate or mix his pitches, or just the opposite, a guy that can pitch, but doesn't really have the stuff to get hitters in the big leagues out. To me, Gibson isn't dominating, but has the full package. An above average fastball along with different breaking/off-speed pitches and movement is why Gibson was picked int he first round and should allow him to be successful in the big leagues. If he shows he is healthy in spring training, he looks like a guy who could make the opening day rotation. If he starts the year in the minors, it will be a good opportunity to improve his changeup, but if he starts in the majors, he should just junk it as it will be destroyed in the Majors.
Jameson Taillon is the 2nd best prospect in Pirates system according to Baseball America. After 23 starts in Class A+, in which he had a 3.70 FIP and 4.02 SIERA, Taillon was promoted to AA.
The 6-6 245 RHP has a 95-98 MPH fastball with good movement. He threw a lot of them low and was surprisingly hittable. Taillon had more success with his fastball up high, although it had less movement. He can also really jam lefties with it. This should keep his platoon splits down. In fact, his platoon splits have been reversed so far this year, as he has actually struggled to get righties out.
At the beginning of the game, his curveball stayed high but had really sharp break. It improved as the game went along and he shattered a bat with it. It almost looks like a slider at times. Taillon should get plenty of grounders when he controls it (he had a 43.3 GB% this year in A+, roughly league average). The curve is a whiff pitch when he throws it in the dirt. He can throw it to lefties and righties and get swings and misses. It is an elite pitch when he throws it in the dirt and the AA hitters stood no chance.
He began the game with very shaky command but really got better as the game went along. Taillon has dominating stuff, and the command is a little rough around the edges but is not bad. While the arm action is somewhat strange, the delivery is very smooth overall. There is nothing to be concerned about there. When you look at his stuff and watch him pitch, it doesn't really seem to add up with the numbers. This has to be because of bouts of control issues. Even his strikeout percentage was slightly below league average. It certainly seems like I got to see him on his best day. It shows that his ceiling is obviously much higher than most pitchers. There isn't really any reason to think that he won't be a good pitcher in the majors. However, there was no real reason for him to be pitching that mediocre in High A. He is just 20 though, a few years younger than most of his opponents.
Jake Odorizzi in the Kansas City Royals organization made his first start in AAA on Friday night. He has a moving fastball (2-seamer looking type pitch) that tails down with good movement. His 4-seamer straight fastball is very straight with not much movement, and good not great velocity. He also had a soft curve that he broke out in the 2nd, and mixed with a change, it is a pretty impressive assortment of pitches.
On the curveball, he had back luck on a soft grounder hit up the middle, but he also wasn't getting the pitch down early on in the game. As the game went on, it is almost like it over-corrected and he couldn't get it out of the dirt. With the 4 seamer, he got a fly-out to the warning track to the 2nd hitter of the game (Luis Rodriquez). In the first inning, he did get 2 grounders. The changeup was hung in the middle of the plate to Carlos Peguero who turned it into an absolute bomb. He seemed to be really inconsistent with it, and it wasn't a great pitch. In the 4th, he gave up a double to Luis Jimenez on a decent looking low moving fastball. Overall, he wasn't hitting his spots, and had control problems. He went 6.2 innings and gave up 9 hits, 3 runs, 1 walk and 4 strikeouts. In the 3rd, he gave up back to back BABIP type hits, as one was hit hard, but it was on the ground. He got out of the inning with a fly-out, a strikeout on a breaking pitch, and a ground-out. The run he gave up in the 5th was pretty bad luck, with an infield single, a steal, and a bloop single. He then got a lucky double play on bad base running, so it evened out somewhat.
Trevor Bauer in the Arizona Diamondbacks organization also made his first AAA start Friday night against a pretty pedestrian Oklahoma City Redhawks (Astros) lineup. He struck out Brian Bixler on 3 pitches to start the game, and it took just 8 pitches to get through the first. He loves to throw a high fastball that has great velocity in the mid 90s. He threw a couple ones low, but most of them were high. He started the game with a lot of fastballs, but threw more off-speed stuff as the game went along. He has a big curve that he hung the first time he threw it, but he got the fly-out to end the first. There has been a lot of discussion around ground-balls to fly-balls when discussing Trevor Bauer, as he seems to want to go for strikeouts at the risk of getting fly-balls. I am as much of a ground-ball to fly-ball ratio guy as there is, but there are different types of fly-balls. Infield fly-balls are almost automatic outs, and there is a difference between weak fly-balls versus deep or "hard" fly-balls. Just looking at ground-ball to fly-ball ratio can be misleading sometimes if you ignore the quality of those fly-balls. So I decided to keep count of weak fly-outs versus deep fly-outs. According to my count, he got 4 weak fly-balls and just 1 deep fly-ball. The deep fly-ball was a homer to lead-off the 8th. I was a little surprised they let him pitch into the 8th, as it was a close game, and he had to bat in the bottom of the 7th. He fell behind the next hitter 3-0 before getting the batter out. Overall, he got a lot of grounders, more than he got fly-balls. I thought he did a good job of working both high and low overall, mixing his pitches. He didn't get many swing and misses on the fastball, it may be too predictable, meaning he may have to start working it in different locations. He gave up a line drive double to Bixler in the 3rd with 2 outs on a fastball down the middle. The curveball is just nasty, especially once you consider the speed differential he gets between it and the fastball. This and his hard splitter seems to be his out pitch. He got 11 strikeouts in the game, and even if 2 were to the opposing pitcher (Aneury Rodriquez), it was pretty impressive. He also has a change-up that he has a lot of confidence in, which he showed when he got behind 2-0 and threw one in the middle of a plate for a strike. He ended up striking out the batter (Jimmy Paredas) on a splitter way out of the zone, but the ball got away from the catcher and extended the 3rd inning. He responded by striking out the next guy on a splitter. The 4th was pretty easy with a ground-ball, another ground-ball, and a strikeout. He really can throw all his pitches for strikes (other than his splitter, which you really don't want for strikes anyway). The best example may have been in a 3-2 count where he threw a curve in the 5th. It ended up being a ball and a walk (his only walk) but it speaks to how advanced he is as a pitcher in my opinion (he would go on to strikeout the next hitter on the curve). He was really impressive, as his line showed: 8 innings, 4 hits, 1 run.
On Sunday April 1st (No April Fools I promise) 2012, I watched Texas A&M Kingsville play Tarleton University.
The starting pitcher for Kingsville was Zachary Pettiford, a right handed junior listed at 6-4 220. He was throwing quite a bit harder than Tarleton's starter (more on him later), but was most likely south of 90 MPH. He also had a hard slider and a curveball, and although he threw some good ones, he had real control issues with those pitches. He hit a batter with one, but they seemed to be good complementary pitches even though he will have to live with mainly his fastball while those pitches develop. I am not sure he can do that with his fastball. He gave up lots of flyballs and it turned into lots of runs in the game.
For Kingville's lineup, Sophomore Dustin Aguilar can fly, at 5-10 165. The center fielder has a decent arm but had some trouble with the breaking ball. For the most part he wasn't chasing but he really didn't do much with pitches I thought he should have crushed. Ben Villafuerte can play in both the outfield and 2nd base (where I saw him). The small junior wasn't real fast and lacks patience at the plate. Trent Wagner has good size at 6-3 200, but the right fielder is really slow out in the field. Catcher Jake Mediola has a good arm, with a relatively quick release. Predictably, the senior is pretty slow. 1st baseman James Wallace looked awful on most breaking pitches, even though he did smack a hanging one. The junior drove the ball to the wall once but struck out the next time. The DH was listed 2nd baseman/pitcher Cameron Dullnig. The senior had some pretty lackluster swings, even with a couple of hits. He can definately run though. 3rd baseman James Black drove the ball pretty well in his at-bats. The junior stands at 6-0 185. Mario Siller is a small freshman shortstop who isn't a quick runner. He did seem pretty solid in the field,but couldn't drive the ball very well. Julian Duran had an awful drop in left field, and was chasing a bunch of breaking pitches. He does run pretty well though.
Cole Foster is a freshman right handed reliever who stands at just 5-11 179. He isn't going to blow you away with velocity, but not many pitches were in the middle of the plate. He threw mainly fastballs, with a very mediocre breaking pitch that he couldn't get down. The glove flies ahead of him in his delivery and 2 of his first 3 pitches turned into contact. He does field his position pretty well.
For Tarleton, a team I have seen 3 times now (and will see them at least one more time), the starter was Matt Buckmaster, a pitcher I have seen before (read previous posts to see more detailed scouting reports on the team). The lefty junkballer threw a lot of strikes (his first two fastballs were down the middle), and had some hard hit balls. His breaking ball stayed pretty low, but it provides very little speed differential.
Landon Thompson is a guy who I have seen with the bat and in the field but hadn't seen pitch yet. He is just 5-11 190, and has okay velocity. His plan was clearly to just throw a lot of low fastballs. They weren't fooling anyone, and just made him get behind in the count. When the fastballs crept up he was hurt and he couldn't consistently throw them low. He broke out a curve but has little to no feel for it. He threw a couple good ones finally, only to hang the next one. Even though he was awful for the most part, his fastball seemed better when he put it on the inside or the outside of the plate (and not at the low part).
Kyle Supack came in and showed a good pickoff move. He got a nice jamshot and put a lot of fastballs in the middle to middle low part of the plate. He hit 2 batters in a row and was absolutely tattooed.
Tanner Ross was throwing a lot of curveballs and looked a lot better than the last time I saw him. He had some good stuff, and was getting quite a bit of swing and misses early but then walked 2 in a row as the stuff became less deceptive.
For the lineup on a day when the ball was carrying, Garrett Hardey hit a homer on a breaking pitch. That is pretty remarkable considering he hasn't done anything on breaking balls in other at-bats I have seen him. Defensively, he looked awful with 2 really bad defensive plays.
Ryan Small hit a double on a fastball right down the middle. Andrew Jacobi DH'ed but is listed as a catcher, and is really small for a catcher. He can run though, which he has to as he is a ground-ball hitter. Andrew Wolfe made a really nice play at center field, while Noah Ringenberger looked bad out in right field. He did drive a low fastball to the wall though.
On Thursday March 1st 2012, I went and watched Dallas Baptist and Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Cy Sneed started for Dallas Baptist, and you can see the 6-4 Freshman throw here:
Scouting reports I have seen say Sneed throws about 87-89 MPH on his fastball, and it definitely looked like he had good velocity. His delivery was effort filled, so it does raise questions about whether he can add velocity and whether he will have injury problems later in his career. He hit two batters early, and liked to keep the fastball high and tight to right handers. In the first real at-bat, he got 3 swing and misses, striking him out on a breaking ball in the dirt. That hard breaking ball also got another strikeout in the dirt and another one swinging that wasn't in the dirt. His breaking pitches went in 3 different places, one was too much in the zone, one was perfect and one went 58 feet (which wasn't fooling anyone). He got 5 strikeouts swinging on the fastball (one was a check swing). He threw a ton of pretty pitches. He did have some control issues (a wild pitch) other than the hit by pitches, although his only real walk was on pitches in good locations. Despite giving up more fly-balls than ground-balls, he really pitched better than his 5 runs allowed in 6 innings. More capable Corpus hitters made more contact the 2nd and 3rd time around. With runners on he had a lot of pickoffs and had a balk. Defensively, I thought he moved well despite his size.
Adam Hoelscher pitched for Texas A&M Corpus, and you can see the 6-3 Junior throwing here:
As a Freshman, Hoelscher had a 4.47 ERA, and then took a step back in 2011 with a 7.15 ERA. He wasn't throwing hard, and the ball was staying up which is a bad combo. He kept the ball away from lefties, and at his best he put breaking balls down low and away. However, there were not many flashes of good. I didn't like the arm action as it seems to be an elbow killer and took away velocity. He had no swing and miss stuff and even pitches out of the zone were getting hit hard. He gave up 3 weak fly-balls to start before giving up a line drive homer. He end up giving 4 homers and 8 runs, and just stood no chance. It was really hard to evaluate the Dallas Baptist hitters because of how terrible he was throwing. He also had a wild pitch.
Texas A&M Corpus was clearly an inferior team, which is kind of hard to believe considering all the high school baseball talent contained in Corpus Christi.
Bobby Buckner, the son of the infamous Bill Buckner, was one of their better hitters (sorry so many of the videos have so many blurry moments, I blame that on the lights):
The senior Buckner was originally a Texas Longhorn but left after he was transfered. Buckner appeared to be one of the team's better hitters but has been pretty unimpressive the last couple of seasons, with an OPS of .777. In the game he had a 5 pitch walk, a 7 pitch walk, and two medium fly-balls.
Brad Porras played 1st-base, and stands at 6-5 220. He fell for a breaking ball, and just had a horrible eye and a bad swing for a first baseman. Defensively, he just seemed goofy and awkward. Kyle Danford is a big freshman outfielder. He looked bad and couldn't lay off the breaking ball. He also had an ugly check swing strikeout, and has a hole in his swing. He does run decently well though. Jonathan Gonzalez is listed as a first baseman and right handed pitcher but played DH in the game. He also couldn't handle the breaking ball and had a less than impressive swing. He did hit a home run though, and is 6-0 245 (and really slow). Santiago Ruiz was the senior catcher who had a nice eye with a great walk. He is little for a catcher, but he had a nice arm. He was pinch run for. Last year, Ruiz had a .711 OPS. Omar Garcia was the replacement catcher, and was not great at blocking pitches. He did have two walks, but he was extremely slow and was thrown off of first. The senior has an OPS of just .736 in his career, with very little walks and a patience rating of just 8 by Baseball Cube. Dan Sciantarelli batted 9th and struck out twice and was only able to foul off pitches early in the count. He is listed at 5-11 195, but he seemed smaller than that. Jeramie Marek lead off for Corpus, but he wasn't the traditional fast lead-off guy. He also had a big time cut, but it was a slow swing. He had a lot of swing and misses and had a gigantic hole in his swing. He could foul off pitches with 2 strikes but did strike out looking. He had a nice long at-bat for a soft line drive. Marek is a senior and had a .764 OPS last year. Eric Weiss can play both outfield and catcher, and the junior banged one double off the wall. He doesn't have a very good arm, but he had a nice long at bat that end up being a strikeout. He also had a nice line drive. Weston Montgomery can pitch, but I only saw hit hit and field. Hit may be a strong word, as he looked lost at the plate with some wild hacks on a 4 pitch strikeout. It really was ugly. Drew Vest pinch hit and had a 5 pitch walk (in which nothing was in the strike zone). He is quick on his feet and had another long at-bat where he struck out on check swing. He is not a good hitter with a .688 OPS in 2011. Jordan Lee is a freshman who came in to pinch run. He was quick, but we never really saw him turn on the jets. He had a weak arm and was bad defensively with a drop. He did have a decent swing though.
There was very little wind, but the DBU field is slightly smaller compared to many other college fields I have been to. Dallas Baptist really had a all or nothing philosophy when it came to swinging the bat and it showed.
R.J. Talamantes lead off and played 2nd base. He is a decent runner, but is really little at 5-5 155. The sophomore did have great contact quality for his size for the most part, and hit a home run. He was also pretty patient, not swinging at balls and made good contact up the middle on a 2 strike count. He also had a shallow fly-out.
Landon Anderson is a senior outfielder that has hit pretty well at DBU with a 972 career OPS. The lefty had a long walk, another walk, with a weak fly-ball and fooled on a check swing that he put in play. He ran okay but not great, his speed is rated at 76 on Baseball Cube. I was disappointed I didn't get to see his 88 rated power.
Nash Knight played 3rd base and had a really nice play on defense. He had a slow big cut that led to K. He also loved the low breaking ball, but he hit the ball pretty hard (he hit a decent fly-ball on a pitch that was out of the zone and in the dirt) and is just a freshman.
Duncan McAlphine is a junior catcher and right handed pitcher. At the game I attended he caught, and had a nice arm gunning down a runner. He wasn't the greatest pitch blocker though and isn't real big at 5-10 200. With the bat, he had a huge cut with a possible hole in it. He struck out, but also had a deep fly-ball, and this home run:
McAlpine had a huge freshman year, but regressed in his sophomore year. He still has a career .950 OPS, and I like his bat (97 power according to Baseball Cube) if your willing to put up with a ton a strikeouts. It will be interesting to see whether he can stick at catcher.
Joel Hutter played shortstop and made a nice play defensively. He wasn't a great runner though, and had very questionable bat speed. He hit a relatively weak fly-ball, a hard grounder, and struck out. It is possible I saw the senior on a bad day though, as he has 81 contact and 91 power to go with 81 patience. He slugged .500 in 2011.
Boomer Collins is sort of a stocky redshirt junior outfielder who made a bad throw. Offensively, he chased two breaking balls out of the zone and looked awful doing so. However, he did demonstrate some patience in some other at-bats, and had a ground-ball, and a walk. He was way late on a fast-ball down the middle, but hit a 2 run homer in a later at-bat. He is a good base-runner and is not a "burner", but runs well enough and had a nice steal.
Ryan Behmanesh was the first baseman, and he wasn't a very good one defensively. He runs decently, and when he had the bat in his hand, he was dangerous. He just missed a home run off Dorris, and then pulled a homer off Danton. He has a .916 career OPS so far, so you want to see that number go up, but he has good ratings on all his batting tools.
Ronnie Mitchell is an outfielder who can also pitch (but I just saw him as an outfielder). He had an open stance that is Texiera or Bonds like, and the deficiency of that stance showed when he hit a pitch on the outside corner off the end of his bat for a medium ground-ball. He also wanted to swing at breaking stuff that wasn't really hittable. It was apparent he had some power though, as after he couldn't get a bunt down, he popped a homer. He has an under cut type swing, and the positives of his stance showed whenever he hit a hard ground-ball off a lefty side-armer.
K.J. Alexander is listed as a catcher, but played DH in the game I saw (so that raises some questions about his defense). He did have some power though, as he banged a homer off the foul poll. He did walk, but overall he didn't have much patience, as he wasn't waiting on the breaking ball. In one at-bat, he took two out of the zone only to check swing one in play up in the count. He also had a hard grounder up the middle.
Now for relief pitchers:
Matt Danton had a slow delivery with a high leg kick and wasn't very impressive to look at in warm ups. Early on, he was working in the low part of the zone but his control got away from him and he gave up a line drive homer. He got a lot of swing and misses (with two strikeout swingings, one on a fastball up), but when he gave up contact it was usually hard. Although he got a few swing and misses in the zone, I really question whether he can consistently live there. He is just a freshman, and he is 6-3, so he could add some velocity with his already good looking breaking stuff.
Chance Bragg had a reach back delivery and was throwing harder than the previous two Corpus pitchers. He stayed in the middle of the plate, while his fast-ball some times got high. He was certainly a fly-ball pitcher, giving up a homer, a deep fly-ball, and a line drive in his first 3 hitters. He gave up a lot of foul balls and his breaking stuff was very unimpressive getting some swings but no real misses. He did get some grounders but most of them were hard, and he had some walk problems. He did get a strikeout on a high fastball swinging.
Alex Jack was a side-armed soft tosser who really projects to a lefty specialist. I don't see how he could get righties out consistently. He got a hard grounder from a lefty and walked a righty. He simply wasn't putting the ball where he wanted to, and hit a lefty with a pitch. Jack pitched in 11.2 innings last year and had a WHIP of almost 2.
Jacob Doris was a right handed side-armer, but his delivery was harder and he was throwing harder. He was getting very weak contact and fielded his position well. The freshman had a looping slow breaking ball that led to good speed differential from his fastball. His pickoff move wasn't very good and neither were his pickoff throws. When he could control it, he had good swing and miss breaking stuff and could get grounders as well.
Tyler Wilhem hides the ball well with an exploding fastball with nice pop. One of the worst hitters was way late on his fastball, but he didn't get many swing and misses and gave up lots of fouls. He had a low hard breaking ball with not much speed differential and he didn't have much control of his pitches. He seemed bigger than his listed 190 pounds and he gave up a medium fly-ball, and a GIDP.
Kenny Hatcher was listed just as an infielder but came in as a reliever. He didn't pitch last year, but played 3rd base and wasn't a very impressive hitter with a .760 OPS. He is a contact hitter with mediocre power and patience. As a pitcher, he had a similar delivery to Tyler Wilhem and seemed to be throwing reasonably hard with nice speed differential. His breaking pitch low got swings and misses, and he kept everything low to the first hitter and walked him. He then threw his fastball down the middle, then on the outside corner and got a ground-ball on a low pitch. He then walked another batter, and while he started getting the ball in the middle height-wise, he couldn't find the strike zone. He was able to get some jam action though. He had a decent pickoff move but not a great throw over.
Blake Webster was throwing soft and gave up a homer to the only hitter he faced. The junior is listed at 6-1 205.
Jordan Staples has nice size (6-4 210) but not intimidating velocity. He was a little wild and gave up a walk, but he had a nasty low pitch. He also had a beautiful looking strikeout on a fastball on the low and away corner. However, he also gave up hard contact. In 2011, he gave up over a hit an inning and walked more batters than he struck out.
Tim Beard hides the ball almost like we see in Southeast Asia (although he doesn't have the pause):
He got Ronnie Mitchell to strikeout swinging on a breaking ball in the zone, his breaking ball struck out K.J. Alexander, and got Dustin McAlpine to strikeout swinging on a fastball. His breaking ball is very soft, while he has decent velocity with good placement on his fastball. He also gave up a soft fly-ball and a HBP. Beard is a jr. who went to Western Nebraska and had a 1.95 ERA with 7.11 K/9IP as a freshman, but struggled his sophomore year with a smaller sample size (although he elevated his strikeout total).
I have been writing a lot on 2012 MLB draft prospects at seattlesportscentral.com (as well as on this blog), but as Brandon Moore isn't eligible to be drafted until the 2013 draft, I decided to put it on here. Moore is a sophomore pitcher at Arkansas, and here is a short video of him pitching against NorthWesternern State:
I watched him throw the first few innings in this game, and that is what I am going to give the scouting report off of. He has a good pick off move, but did make a throwing error in the game I watched (I have recently been thinking about how pitching defense is underrated). Moore gave up 4 runs in the second despite nothing hit very hard off of him, and ironically, the hardest hit ball in that inning end up being a warning track out. He didn't overwhelm me with swing and miss stuff but he did get a nice K on the bottom corner with a breaking ball. He knew how to put that pitch down low where it couldn't really hurt him and still get strikes. I would imagine he gets a good groundball rate. It still didn't seem like he got anyone to swing and miss, it just usually wasn't for good contact, which could very well be just the inferiority of the hitters, and it was an inferior lineup, as their best hitter was actually pitching. Moore didn't appear to have intimidating velocity, but reportedly throws around 90 MPH. According to Baseball Cube, Moore has 70 control, and is 64 against Power, but has just a 10 K-Rating. So just as my impression was in a couple innings of watching him, he doesn't strike out anyone, but the ball doesn't get hit that hard off him. Last year as a freshman, it proved to be effective, with a 3.45 ERA, and .38 HR/9IP despite striking out just 4.86 per 9 innings. My first reaction to someone not being able to strike anyone out like Moore is to dismiss them. Strikeouts have proven to be the most predictive pitching statistic, and it is hard to get runs if you can't hit the ball. The dismissal shouldn't be so quick though, as the Twins have traditionally always went after contact pitchers, and have had quite a bit of success (and one can think of a handful of pitchers who didn't strikeout people and were still successful, but strikeouts do matter). So as long as that contact is consistently soft contact, contact pitchers can survive. With that said, there are some problems with Moore. He isn't consistently getting soft contact, as he allowed more than a hit an inning, and had a WHIP of 1.32, making it seem like he was a beneficiary of a high LOB %. Moore is going to have to either miss more bats, or consistently give up softer contact (preferably both) to be a real legitimate big league prospect.
The Reds signed pitcher Wirfin Obisbo to a minor league contract. Obisbo has spent the past 4 years in Japan pitching as both a reliever and a starter. He had a pretty pedestrian PE in that time of 2.09. This obviously means he doesn't project to be a Major League pitcher. He really struggled with homers, giving up 1.4 HR/9IP per inning. According to NPB Tracker's velocity charts, Obisbo throws 92.5 MPH at the most and about 91 on average. So, he has average to slightly above average velocity. In 2006 he was actually in the Reds organization, pitching for the Reds' Dominican Summer League team. There he pitched pretty well striking out 10.6 batters per 9 innings and earning a 2.04 ERA. One of his teammates was Enerio Del Rosario, a pitcher who has pitched slightly below replacement level in the Majors. Obispo had a slightly higher ERA but a much better strikeout rate. Obispo was slightly older than his teammates at age 21, when his average teammate was 20.3 (Del Rosario was 20 as well). Pedro Viola, who has also pitched below replacement in the Majors, was part of the team as well, and had the exact same ERA and a slightly better strikeout rate. Viola was a few years older though. It should be noted, like the Dominican Winter Leagues, the league was a very pitcher friendly environment. The best hitter on the team had an OPS of just .700 (the Reds' team seems to have been pretty bad though, as the Cubs' best guy had an OPS of .796, and a few players in the league had an OPS of better than .800). So it would seem that one would have to be even harsher when applying the usually A metric of 2 runs added to the ERA from A-ball to MLB. This is not real good news for Obispo, as we would be talking about an ERA well over 4 in the Majors (which would make a lot of sense when factoring in his mediocrity in the NPB, with a projected ERA of 4.74). At age 27, this should be Obispo's prime season, and we would expect him to be an above replacement pitcher, but not an average one. Obispo is the kind of player these minor league free agent contracts are designed for, they may be helpful for a short time, but its not anyone you want to actually depend on.
UPDATE:
Obispo signed a minor league contract with the Braves for the 2013 season. He did not pitch in the Majors for the Reds in 2012, instead splitting it between AA and AAA. In 10 games (3 starts) with AAA, he struggled, with a 4.08 FIP and 5.53 SIERA, walking more guys than he struck out with a bad (36.2 %) GB rate. In AA, his basic numbers were helped by a .194 BABIP, but he was still decent with a 3.41 SIERA (.81 points better than league average) and 3.96 FIP (.12 points worse than league average). He pitched in a hitter friendly park compared to league average (the Southern League is a pitcher's league), but struck out over 25 % of batters and less than 10%. His ground-ball rate was still terrible (2nd worse on the team out of pitchers with at least 5 innings), but the line drive rate (if you trust it) was also low. Here is some video of him I took from him pitching in the Dominican Winter League:
We have already done several articles on college projections here, however, we discovered recently that drafting high schoolers brings a better return (or at least a higher ceiling). Because of this, we have to figure out how to project high school players.
I had to be a little creative with finding high school stats, because many times they are hard to find, especially for past seasons. I used batting average for high school because that was a whole lot easier to find. While batting average is a rather flawed statistic (see my article on Kala Ka'aihue), I have shown previously that it has about the same correlation to scoring runs as OBP (right click on the
image and zoom in to see it).
There seems to be a decent correlation between the ranking of high school batting average and A-ball OBP. The big exception is Matt Weiters who both in college and A-ball had a better OBP than high school BA. This could be two different reasons for this: A) he was a late bloomer type, while good in high school, he wasn't dominant like he was in college or A-ball or B) walks, walks, walks. He could have had a giant OBP in high school.
The biggest "bust" (great BA in high school and extremely low A-ball OBP) in the group is Jon Edwards. But that is just 1 out of 13, which is still a pretty good success rate, all 13 having .400+ BA in high school and being above average in A-ball. Rather than coming up with a metric, it may be more helpful to just note that any player in Major High School baseball with a .400+ BA is probable to have success in A-ball, and give out extra points for power, patience and defense. All 6 players with .500+ BA that have played A-ball have above average OBPs.We saw a similar correlation between high school and college, as all 7 .500+ BA guys were .360+ OBP guys in college. Once, you got into the .400s it got more tricky and was all out of order. I count 5 different players that had higher College OBPs than high school batting averages, while several others saw sharp decline. So strangely, there seems to be a better correlation between high school to A-ball than to college.
In our small sample size, there isn't really any correlation between high school ERA and College ERA. Even the guys that had ERAs under 1 in high school all had varied amount of success at every level. It didn't guarantee success. This is probably because ERA is a much more volatile stat than something like strikeouts. I would guess that a similar list showing K/9IP rather than ERA would provide a better correlation. Strikeout rates are a little harder to find for high school players, but they would be much better than ERA. Along with strikeouts, I would also look at velocity, which is one of the first things scouts look at anyway.
In 2011, a young Japanese pitcher named Hiroyuki Kawahara pitched in the Puerto Rican winter league. The 21 year old lefty is not by any means "crafty" or "soft-tossing". According to scouting reports, he throws about 91 but has hit 96 before, and often.He was originally drafted in the NPB but there wasn't room in the rotation for him so he had been pitching in the minor league equivalent of the NPB. However, he is expected to take a leap and join the rotation of the Hawks in 2012. In Puerto Rico he had a great groundball ratio of 2.44 GB/FB. He gave up just 1 homer in 26.1 innings (7 starts, less than 4 innings a start). On the other hand, his ERA was 4.78. He somehow walked more batters than he struck out (control problems was originally part of his scouting report when he was just 18), walking 27, striking out 17 (5.86 K/9IP). He had big time splits, with a 6.19 ERA against righties and 2.61 ERA against lefties (even though his BAA was higher against lefties, he didn't walk many or give up many extra base hits to lefties). His numbers also would have been better if he didn't struggle so much with runners in scoring position (he gave up a BAA of .321 in those situations compared to .233). In most baseball circles LOB% is considered more luck than skill. One would expect this number to get better with a larger sample size, which would make his overall numbers better. He has had some should and elbow problems, and he was drilled in the head by a line drive earlier this year, but none of this seems too serious. Kawahara is an exciting prospect, and it should be fun to see him pitch in the NPB for the next few years, and at the very least could be a dominant left-handed specialist if made available to the U.S.
18 year old Cuban pitcher Gerardo Concepcion has moved to Mexico and will become a free agent. So I found Cuban pitchers who pitched both professionally in Cuba and the MLB. I could find just 3 with reliable statistics.
Aroldis Chapman
Cuba: 10.04 K/9IP, 3.75 ERA
MLB: 12.8 K/9IP ,3.27 ERA
Yuneisky Maya
Cuba: 7.6 K/9IP, 2.45 ERA
MLB: 4.14 K/9IP, 5.52 ERA
Jose Contreras
Cuba: 14.97 K/9IP, 4 ERA
MLB: 6.8 K/9IP, 4.54 ERA
Contreras and Maya saw significant decline in the Majors, while Chapman saw improvement. The biggest difference between Chapman and Contreras/Maya is that Chapman throws an average 99 MPH fastball, hitting 100 frequently, and neither Contreras or Maya hit 95. As I had shown in a previous article, pitchers that threw 95 MPH were much more likely to have success than pitchers that didn't. According to reports I have seen, Concepcion can barely hit 90 MPH, which is about what Maya throws. So here we will look at Concepcion's statistics through Contreras and Maya's difference in the two countries.
Gerardo Concepcion
Cuba: 4.7 K/9IP, 3.36 ERA
MLB Projection: (negative strikeouts somehow), 5.165 ERA
Just for fun, a projection including Chapman: 1.74 K/9IP, 4.4 ERA
As you can see, the strikeout projections are particularly unhelpful, but a 4.7 K/9IP at any level is terrible. His ERA is also very pedestrian and unimpressive. He is only 18, and could develop more (I would be surprised if he didn't), but throwing 90ish with no apparent strikeout abilities isn't exactly something teams should be clamoring over.
175 players from NJCAA (Colleges that are considered Junior Colleges in baseball) were drafted in the 2010 draft. Here I tried to judge the difference between A-ball (only Bryce Harper out of these have made it to AA) and the NJCAA. Of course not all 175 are included for different reasons (perhaps they didn't sign, don't have reliable statistics, or changed from a pitcher to a batter). But here it is:
The Nationals have signed Mike Ballard to a minor league contract. In 4 years in AAA (in both the International League and the PCL), and has a miserable 4.06 PE, mostly as a starter. In 2011, he pitched in both AA and AAA, in AA he had a -2.83 PE as a starter, and in AAA he had a 2.93 PE as a starter. It seems that although his AA numbers suggest that just maybe he can make it in the big leagues, he has absolutely hit a wall in AAA. If he can't get AAA hitters out, it is unlikely that he can magically get MLB hitters out. He really struggled with homers in AAA, giving up 1.1 HR/9IP, he has a decent SO/BB ratio, because he doesn't hardly walk anyone (even though he doesn't have a standout strikeout rate). He has had a better FIP than ERA over the last two years, but not drastically better. Every year there are inconsequential minor league signings used to just fill out rosters, and this is another one of those.
The Oakland Athletics sent Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney to the Red Sox for Josh Reddick, Miles Head, Raul Alcantera
Andrew Bailey has a 7.2 WAR over his 3 year career, a 2.4 WAR average. He will be in his first year of arbitration in 2011. He has a sparkling -4.096 PE and -3.426 adjusted PE. He has a spectacular TR of 13.52, and FIP - of 67. So for the past 3 years, Andrew Bailey has been one of the elite relief pitchers in the game. There is some cause for concern though. It seems there has been some regression. In 09 he had a WAR of 3.9, then a 2.4 in 10, and just a .9 in 2009. His PE was -2.37 in 2011, -2.75 Adjusted, and a FIP - of 73, and a SIERA of 2.99. These numbers are hard to complain about, and as long as the regression doesn't continue, they are still really good. There is also the point of small sample sizes, he pitched just over 40 innings in both 2010 and 2011.
Ryan Sweeney had a .8 WAR in 2011, with a 1.53 WAR average over the past 3 years. He is also arbitration eligible. In his career, he has a 1.5 D-WAR, with an above average Range Factor and Fielding Percentage. He did struggle in 2011, costing his team 3-5 runs above average. Offensively, he has a .342 OBP, 1.746 O4S, 95 OPS +, .196 Secondary Average, and .096 ISO. He has 4.5 Runs Created per Game and a .461 Offensive Winning Percentage. He made 1.4 million dollars in 2011.
Josh Reddick has a 1.9 WAR in 403 PA, not quite a full season. Adjusted for 600 PA, it is a 2.86 WAR. He isn't arbitration eligible yet, so he will make around half a million dollars in 2012. While proving to be an excellent defender, his offensive statistics are very poor so far. He has an O4S of 1.576, OPS + of 86, and .464 Offensive Winning Percentage. However, he has better Secondary Average and ISOs then Sweeney, at .227 and .168. This certainly gives you hope (along with his WAR projection) that he will be better than Sweeney. On the other hand, his AAA statistics are very unimpressive in over a full season of work, with just a .748 OPS, projecting to a poor .682 OPS in MLB.
Miles Head has never been above A ball, and has decent but not over impressive statistics at a .351 OBP, 1.85 O4S, and .172 ISO. He does walk almost 10 percent of the time. At first base, he is about average, perhaps a little bit better according to Range Factor.
Raul Alcantara is a similar story, he hasn't played above A-ball, but he is a starting pitcher. In 26 starts, he has an unspectacular .0369 PE, although his FIP is lower than his ERA. But even if his PE is an even 0, that doesn't translate well, and his lack of strikeouts (6 K/9IP) is concerning. However, his ERA is nice, and his K/BB ratio is a very very good 4.2. He is just a contact pitcher. Some have been very successful, and he can be if his HR/9IP stays at .1.
I give the nod to the Red Sox in this trade, it appears that Reddick is the best player in the trade according to WAR, but his poor offense concerns me for the A's. Sweeney is almost certainly a downgrade (especially with declining defense) from Reddick, but they add Bailey, who is a (although declining) solid closer. Although prospect gurus seem to like Alcantara and Head, their numbers make it hard for me to fall in love with them. Of course, who wins the trade will depend on how they do, but I still think the Sox have a slight edge.
The Twins signed Jason Marquis to a 1 year 3 million dollar deal. At the end of the trade deadline, I wrote something kind of silly. I wrote that the trade for Jason Marquis by the Diamondbacks for minor leaguer Zack Walters was a pretty obvious win for the Diamondbacks. This turned out to be quite dumb, as Marquis had a -1 WAR before getting hurt with the Diamondbacks. Walters has never played about A ball, but has a .357 OBP and .807 OPS. When looking at Marquis statistics, there has obviously been some regression in his 12 year career. In the first 3 years of his career, he had strikeout rates of 6.6, 6.8, and 6.6 K/9 IP. The last 3 years have looked like this: 4.8, 4.8, 5.2 K/9 IP. This means that looking at his career numbers would be extremely misleading and pointless. So instead, lets look at his last 3 years. In that time, he has a 1.5 WAR, or .5 WAR a season. This is only worth half of the 3 million dollars the Twins are going to give him. His PE was a terrible 3.933, but he walks less batters than average, and throws less pitches per plate appearance than average. But his FIP - has been worse than league average over the last two years, and he had an average TR of 9.09 in 2011. He does get plenty of groundballs, and is spotty with homers, but his SIERA's over the last 3 years are 4.15, 4.76, and 4.61. 3 million dollars seems to be a lot of money for Jason Marquis.
The hard throwing Padres closer Heath Bell is up for free agency. In 2009 he had a 2.1 WAR, a 2.4 in '10, and a 1.7 in 2011. This is a 2.07 WAR average, which is worth 6.02 million dollars according to the Halladay Standard. In his career, he has a -2.66 PE (an adjusted PE of -2.8), with a TR of 12.12. In 2011, his numbers were still good but not quite as impressive at -1.56 PE (-.77 adjusted PE), and a 11.38 TR. When one looks at just ERA (2.44 in 2011), 2011 looks like Bell's best year ever. However, every other metric (including WAR) argues that Bell was in fact not near as good as he was in 2009 and 2010. His FIP was .31 points above his career number and nearly a whole run above his ERA, suggesting he was extremely lucky. Even his BABIP was ridiculously low at .261 and one cannot rely on this to keep happening. He also struck out less and gave up more flyballs. I don't want to paint too dire of a picture, most pitchers would absolutely love to put up the numbers Bell put up. Nevertheless, 2011 was a head-scratcher and with all the stupid money blown on relievers recently, one must figure out who Bell really is. Was 2011 just a weird aberration year? Or has he changed for the worse as a pitcher and was just really lucky in 2011? His HR/9 innings was basically identical to his career number. However, when his BAA is adjusted to his career BABIP, his BAA is .250, much different than .230 or .217. The difference in the strikeout totals (9.22 K/9IP for his career and 7.32 in 2011) is what really bothers me. Has he lost the ability to miss bats? How can one tell or even make an educated guess? I am not really sure other than he threw less strikes in 2011 than his career norms (in percentage). Is he losing his stuff? I don't know how to quantify that, but 2011 really scares me. I buy into the Moneyball/Tampa Bay Ray philosophy of not paying big money for relief pitchers, but that is maybe just me.
Dellin Betances was named the AA starter of the year for the Yankees in 2011. In AA Trenton, he had a -2.87 PE (an adjusted -2.59 when FIP replaces ERA). He did have a BABIP that was a bit low (.288), but even when changed to average at .300, his BAA would still only be .226. Clearly a dominant AA season. He broke into the big leagues for the first time at the end of the season, but only appeared in two games, clearly too small of a sample size to be meaningful. However, he did make 4 starts in AAA, and it may be helpful to look at those numbers. Despite a high ERA, he was very good, putting up a -2.9 PE. His FIP also suggested that his 5.14 Earned Run Average was not in fact earned, as his FIP was at 4.15, a not great but a decent number. He is a strikeout machine, striking out 11.57 per 9 innings in AAA, and 9.83 per 9 innings in AA. Although he doesn't give up many homers, his walks are concerning, walking 4.7 per 9 innings in AA and 6.43 per 9 innings in AA. This makes his K/BB ratio, despite the high strikeout totals, a mediocre 2.09 in AA and 1.8 in AAA. As we saw with the Rangers in the world series (who set a record for most walks given up in the postseason), giving up so many baserunners (especially base runners that didn't have to put the ball in play) ends up biting you. He will have to clean this up before he can become a big league pitcher. In different levels of play in 2010, he showed that he could do this. The Yankees are of course good because of their ability and willingness to spend tons of money, but they also draft pretty well, and this is what separates them from other big leagues clubs that have money but not success.
Matt Lindstrom, currently a reliever for the Colorado Rockies, had a profoundly mediocre year for the Houston Astros last year. His ERA was 4.39 and his WAR was .3, which gave him a WASP of 5416.7. It was no surprise at all that the Astros didn't bring him back. For the Rockies this year, he has been much better, a 3.06 ERA with a 1.2 WAR. Even after the bad year of last year, the Rockies still paid Lindstrom more than he made in 2010. In fact, he is making nearly twice as much. However, his WASP is still a decent 2750. What are the reasons for this change? Well, there could be several. For one, he appears to be more healthy this year, he spent some time on the DL last year for the Astros, and didn't appear to be the same pitcher down the stretch and was yanked from the closer position. Statistically, Lindstrom was more of a strikeout pitcher last year, with 7.26 K's per 9 innings (5.94 K's per innings this year). He has walked less people though (2.52bb per 9 innings this year, and 3.38bb per 9 innings last year), and when people put the ball in play, they have done a lot less damage this year (.358 Batting Average on Balls in Play last year and a BABIP of .283 this year). The Astros sure could have used this year's Matt Lindstrom last year or this year.
