University of Kansas Scouting Reports

The University of Kansas and Eastern Michigan played a 4 game series in the Grand Prairie Airhogs stadium, and I caught the Sunday game.

Drew Morovick is a big (6-5 249!) righty sophomore with a slight hip turn. He touched 90-91 MPH, but worked closer to 86-89 MPH on his fastball, getting down to 85. It moves sort of like a 2-seamer/sinker, but he had some problems with it staying high very early. He usually missed low, and was working glove side, locating some pitches really well on the outside corner to righties. A few broke arm-side, but those seemed like mistakes. He also threw 72-74 MPH breaking balls that breaks like a slider. Obviously this is way too slow for a slider, and is even kind of slow for a curve, so it could just be a two plane curve. With that said, he seemed like a sinker/slider guy, but he didn't throw enough strikes and eventually ran himself out of the game with a high pitch count.

Conner Murray is a skinny short looking (6-0 184) right-handed sophomore pitcher with a 3/4 delivery. Everything broke arm side and his control wasn't sharp to say the least. He was athletic off the mound and threw 81-85 MPH with 2-seam action. His 71-75 MPH curve breaks both ways.

Jordan Piche is a junior right-handed pitcher that has a hip turn with a toe pointed down as he finishes it. He was throwing 86-87 MPH, but I heard he is up to 88-89 MPH usually. He got down to 85 MPH and it was pretty straight. He also threw a 74 MPH breaking ball.

Jordan Mustain is a junior right-handed pitcher that is somewhat short and not thick (6-1 180). He uses an over the top motion that seems to have a little bit of tilt or rotation. This seemed to cause some real release point issues. He was throwing 89-90 MPH on his fastballs, getting down to 86 and up to 92. It has a little bit of movement, which he supplements with a 76 MPH overhand curve.

Tyler Watson is a (5-11) lanky freshman lefty soft-tosser that was only throwing about 81 MPH with a 74 MPH curve. Robert Kahana uses a front leg lift that is weird and not fluid. He tilts his body some, in a really messy right-handed delivery. The sophomore was throwing 84-87 MPH, with a too soft 73 MPH slider that he used a lot.

Justin Protacio is a very short shortstop, part of a really small infield Kansas has. He is clearly a slap hitter, and the bat seems quick, but I didn't love his swing. He didn't show exceptional range and his arm wasn't strong.

Jordan Dreiling is probably a below average runner, and he is a 3rd baseman that looks like a 2nd baseman. The senior is a pull hitter that drove a ball into the gap well.   

Alex Deleon is a senior 1st baseman that isn't extremely large yet, and still runs a 4.5 to first. The plate discipline seems lacking as well.

Ka'iani Eldredge is a junior catcher that looks a little small. He is athletic, but he had some receiving problems and had problems blocking balls. He is really passive at the plate, trying to go the other way without a great looking swing or bat speed.

Jacob Boylan is a freshman DH that I heard is a dreadful defender at first. He can't run at all, but has okay height and could fill out. The swing is not especially quick and he has a bit of an upper cut that makes it hard to hit high pitches.

Michael Suiter is a left-fielder with a good flat stroke. He pulled a line drive well, but in the field, he has a rainbow arm that was inaccurate.

Tucker Tharp is a little short (5-11) junior centerfielder, and he pulled the ball well. However, the problem with evaluating these pull hitters is that the opposing pitcher didn't have good velo. The good news is that he threw a lot of breaking pitches. So we may be saying how advanced these hitters are, but not how good they actually are.

Tommy Mirabelli is a freshman 2nd baseman that showed some range, but his  arm is clearly below average. He is really short (5-8) and had a bad swing on a breaking ball.

Dakota Smith is another small guy that used an uppercut swing. I originally thought the sophomore didn't have much power and it was hurting him after his first at-bat, but he pulled a homer the next at-bat.

Scouting Reports on UCLA

Here are my scouting reports on UCLA's baseball team, I wrote a separate article on Adam Plutko, who was a 6th round pick in 2010 out of high school, here.

Eric Filla is a stocky looking (listed at 6-0 180, but looked heavier) leadoff left-handed hitter is a below average runner. He is a sophomore, but I can't find any evidence he played last year (and he didn't appear to be in junior college either).

Kevin Kramer was picked in the 25th round by the Indians in 2011, but he really struggled at 3rd. Has a little bit of a longated swing that caused him to be hurt by fastballs. He played quite a bit as a freshman in 2012, but didn't play particularly well.

Pat Valakia is a junior that didn't do much offensively last year, but he pulled a low pitch really well, and also hit one to center. He has good range at short with a really easy arm. I would expect his numbers to be better this year, as I liked what he did at the plate, but he will really need to be good with his glove to have a professional career.

Cody Regis was the DH, which is a little odd considering the year he had last year, where he had a decent K/BB (a lot of strikeouts and a lot of walks), but hit for no power. He is a bit stocky (listed at a large 6-2 235) and was fooled on breaking pitches in the game. His swing looks slow, so I don't think he is a prospect (not much power, evidently doesn't play defense, has a lot of other issues at the plate)

Shane Zelle is a small looking sophomore catcher (6-1 188 is nothing to sneeze at though). He has a strong arm but also had a couple of bizarrely bad throws that didn't make it past the pitchers mound (I am guessing there is something wrong mechanically with his delivery). He tried to block balls with his glove and not his body. He has a pretty upright stance at the plate shortens up his swing and made good contact on a low pitch.

Ty Moore is a freshman outfielder that looked really raw offensively. He has a big uppercut hack and was eaten up on low pitches. He bats left, and already has good size, but it is hard for him to really reach any kind of potential without major overhauls at the plate.

Brian Carroll seems to be an above average runner. The small junior plays center, but the arm is below average. At the plate, he has a pretty flat swing. He hasn't played a lot, at least not in his first two years at UCLA, and it isn't surprising no real power has come from him. He really needs to hit for a high average and steal some bases to go along with solid defense to be valuable.

Trent Chatterson is a freshman 2nd baseman that showed some pop despite hitting at the bottom of the order. He gets under the ball too much and may cheat for power he doesn't necessarily have. Depending on how he adjusts at the plate, he may be a guy to watch over the next couple of years.

Ryan Deeter is a (redshirt) junior that has a violent jerky over the top delivery, with a 90-93 MPH fastball that he seemed to be able to keep low. He also has a 78-80 MPH breaking ball that he struggled to command. He was absolutely dominant statistically last year, but was undrafted despite being eligible.

David Berg is a sophomore sidearming righty throwing 81-83 MPH with some sink or drop. 75 MPH sweeping breaking ball.

LA Tech Scouting Reports

No need for an introduction:

Richie Navali is a big looking righty that tries to hide the ball in his delivery (6-2 220 junior out of junior college). He throws in the mid-80s up to 87 MPH. He throws a change in the mid to high 70s that he threw to both sides of the plate. Navali also threw an infrequent curve in the low 70s that he didn't command well most of the time. He seemed to be keep the ball low, with some occasional high heat, but was hittable. He also missed low a lot.
 
Adam Derouen is a sidearm/ 3/4ths righty with a 85-87 MPH fastball and a 75 MPH changeup. He gave up a lot of contact, and the release point is really friendly for lefties.

Sam Alvis is a lefty that looks small and has a 84-88 MPH fastball. he has a bit of a high leg kick but fairly normal delivery. He also has a 72 MPH curveball. As an outfielder, he was very mediocre last season with the bat. As a pitcher, he had just 16 appearances, and was okay, with twice as many strikeouts as walks.

Taylor Burch is a centerfielder that is sort of lanky but has nice size overall. He showed off nice range on defense, but hit towards the bottom of the order and was pinch hit for. He has a crouched batting stance with low hands. He really struggled at the plate in 2012, and only stole 2 bases.

Cody Johnson replaced Birch in centerfield, and bats left. He also pitches, but is pretty small. At the plate, he really struggled with the curveball and didn't appear to have very good plate discipline. Jacob Derouen Dh'd and looked slow. At 6-0 205, he is already filled out. He has a pull swing, but took pitches well though and used both fields.

Bre-Shon Kimbell looks well build, but doesn't have a lot of athleticism and is not a plus runner. He controlled the bat pretty well and looked like he had good bat speed. His plate discipline was inconsistent, good at times, but he also had a horrible swing on an inside fastball and was eaten up by breaking balls in another at-bat. In right-field, he made a really poor play and the arm is not very strong. The sophomore was drafted in the 28th round by the Brewers out of high school and had an okay year as a freshman, with not a ton of power or speed, but a not embarrassing OPS.

Catcher Tyler Qualls looked very small, but turned on the ball pretty quick at the plate. Behind the plate, the blocking questions weren't very surprising, but his arm seemed questionable as well. Just looking at his numbers, he is a high contact/low walk player at the plate, and had a decent year last year.

Tyler Ervine is a first baseman that I saw in Weatherford last year. He didn't have good range or athleticism at first, even though he is tall, but he could get a little bigger by filling out. He stung a pitch really well at the plate, but he chased several pitches though.

Ryan Jones' swing was not very pretty. The team let him play in just one game last year out of junior college. Kody Neel is an outfielder that ran 4.41 to first. The senior had a 28/6 K/BB as a junior. Taylor Love didn't show much at the plate, but did show good defense at short. He is just a freshman.

Dakota Doss is a right-handed senior sidearmer that throws in the low 80s and high 70s. He throws a slurvy thing in the high 60s to low 70s. The pitch breaks away and down and doesn't have much command of it. Doss was an absolute disaster in 14 outings last season.

Luke Giddins is a good sized lefty with a pretty standard delivery except a little bit of a back tilt.. He had some real release point problems though. He didn't have good fastball velocity and couldn't control his curve.

2012 Manhattan College Scouting Report

Manhattan College's baseball team made the college regionals in the past summer, and here is my scouting report on some of the players on the team. They had no one drafted, so I am obviously didn't include any seniors.

Sophomore, so will be a junior, RHP Scott Mcclennan was the starter I saw. He has a 3/4ths delivery and it looks really awkward as his arm is not going with his body. He has a mid 80s fastball that for the most part isn't straight, and it seems to have some sink. His change has some arm-side tail and is anywhere between 76 MPH-82 MPH. He was really changeup heavy, relying on the pitch the most.
Curveball is a little different, some two plane break, pretty slow at 69-71 MPH. He seemed to use it heavily the second time through the order. Since it isn't real swing and miss stuff, Mcclennan was obviously pitching to contact. Coming off the mound, he was not a great athlete and has sort of a large build.

Anthony Vega, the centerfielder is a track star at the school, but I never really got to see him display his speed. The junior didn't get drafted, so he will be a senior for 2013. He is a left-handed hitter that doesn't seem to have the quickest bat or a swing that generates a lot of power, as he seems to want to go the other way. Despite the good build, there may just be too much swing and miss in his bat, especially with the lack of apparent power. The arm is not great out in the field.

Kyle Murphy played 1st base and will be a senior for the 2013 season. He is a right-handed hitter with corner outfielder build, but I got him at 4.41 to first (2 stolen bases all year). He has a good baseball body, but evidently not a ton of athleticism. He seemed to be a solid defender though. His swing is smooth and fluid, working well with his body, but it isn't very quick and the path isn't great (which could be why his statistics were pretty bad in 2013).

Ramon Ortega is also going to be a senior and is a catcher that is a large individual. He may not stick behind the plate and be confined to a 1st/DH role. I don't like his swing, but his frame alone will give him the ability to hit for some power (but it comes with swing and miss). The arm behind the plate doesn't look great.

Joe Mcclennan has a good glove and reaction times at 3rd base. He seems to have arm strength, but he wasn't always accurate. A big looking player, he would take a walk, but doesn't take advantage of the high pitch like you would want him to (his numbers bear that out as well, with a decent K/BB and OBP but not much power). He also seems like he is not much of a runner.

Yoandry Golan has no power, but the 2013 junior has a really good glove at shortstop. Statistically, he got better as a sophomore, especially his peripherals. He doesn't seem to have great athleticism or quickness, but just has great range and anticipation. His arm isn't great, and he really has to be great with on defense to stand any kind of chance professionally.

Jacob Marchus will be a Junior and is the team's closer. He has some fantastic ERAs, but not because of his K/BB but because he hasn't given up a homer yet. This certainly seems like an impressive feat, even with more repressed offense in the college game. While college stats in general aren't predictive, I would bet K/BB is more predictive than HR rates. Marchus has a very underwhelming right-handed fastball that seemed to sit at 86-87 MPH. He did have good changeup movement at about 83 MPH and also has a slow curve. He has a weird delivery that you actually see a lot in minor league and college lefties, with a high leg kick but no real stride or any kind of fluid motion. That just isn't big league or prospect stuff, and he doesn't even seem to have great pitchability or control.

Padres and Athletics Trade Evaluation: A.J. Kirby-Jones

Here I am continuing my breakdown of the trade between the A's and Padres that involved Tyson Ross, A.J. Kirby-Jones, Andy Parrino, and Andrew Werner. This post will focus on A.J. Kirby-Jones, who is going from the Athletics to the Padres. He was drafted in the 9th round by the A's in 2010. Kirby-Jones is a first baseman/DH, so obviously the value is tied up in his bat as he doesn't really have any other tools (he runs a pretty laughable 4.92 to first). He is short (5-10) but stocky (listed at 215) and recently turned 24 years old.

Kirby-Jones played the entire year in the California League, which inflates offensive statistics. However, his team, the Stockton Ports, play in a park that is less hitter friendly than most in the league (95 one year Park Factor). This is why it isn't surprising that he hit much better on the road. It doesn't explain the .173 point difference in BABIP (!), or why he walked more and hit less ground-balls on the road though. His road statistics were crazy, as he walked over 20 % of the time, with a .232 ISO in 56 games on the road (although he hit 1 more homer at home). Overall, in 114 games, Kirby walked 17.5 % of the time (nearly 9% above league average) while striking out 25.9 % of the time (5.8% of the time more than average). His ISO was .061 above league average and he had a 110 wOBA + and 120 OPS + (121 wRC +). This is right in line with how he hit in 2011 in A-ball (113 wOBA +, 126 OPS +, 125 wRC +) after he destroyed A- in 2010 (125 wOBA +, 155 OPS +, 156 wRC +).

Kirby-Jones is much better against lefties than righties (the split was worse in 2012 than it was 2011) but it isn't like he is completely incapable of hitting without the platoon advantage (which is important from right-handed batters, as left-handed platoon bats are more valuable than right-handed platoon bats).

In college, he made a run for the national lead in homers, though Perfect Game liked fellow slugger Paul Hoilman better. Hoilman was picked in the 19th round by the Cubs in 2011 and after a good 2011 in A -, he was only about league average in A-ball in 2012.

Kirby-Jones' swing seems pretty quick, but it is not the prettiest. He uses somewhat of a leg kick to get the swing started (which isn't a big deal, it is a timing technique, stating that he does so is more descriptive than anything else) and it seems long. It looks like that perhaps a pitcher could jam him inside, not because of bat speed, but because it is just a long swing in general. It can also be extremely violent at times and he doesn't necessarily start it on time occasionally, which can make him late. Whether this is plate discipline, timing, eye, or a hitch in his swing, I am not entirely sure. He does have good plate coverage though, which is perhaps a little surprising since he isn't exactly tall, but evidently his arms are long enough (or perhaps his swing is long enough) to go get low pitches away.

He is the kind of guy who can have some success in a bench role on a NL team (which is obviously what the Padres are) as a pinch hitter. He could also turn out to be a minor league slugger that doesn't translate to the Majors. He could be anyone from 2009-2011 Eric Hinske or Mike Cervenak. I think AA next year will tell us a lot, as he won't be older than the competition like he has been in the lower levels.

Rays AA Scouting Reports: Morrison and Kang

Here are scouting reports on two outfielders that played in the Rays' AA this year 2012:

Ty Morrison was picked in the 4th round out of high school in 2008. He was left off of Baseball America's Rays' top 10, but was named the best defensive outfielder in the system. Morrison was one of four 21 year olds in the Southern (AA) league to have a qualified amount of plate appearances (fellow Ray Hak-Ju Lee was another). Despite this, in 102 games, he hit a little above league average with a 103 wRC +. His BABIP was perhaps a little high at .337 (league average was .304), but it isn't bad nevertheless for someone a little young for the league. He struck out about league average and walked below average (just a touch under Junior Lake) and hit a ton of ground-balls (55.7%!). This obviously limits his power. He definitely has a ground-ball swing and is somewhat of a slap hitter. It is really an ugly swing and he doesn't make as much contact as you would like for a guy who doesn't get a hit for any power. His swing is either not quick enough, or he isn't recognizing the ball quick enough because he was swinging late a lot. Here is a look at his swing:

Despite the offensive concerns, he is a good athlete, with Speed Scores in the 7.3-7.5 range, which seems to match the stopwatch, as I got roughtly 4 seconds to first for the left-handed hitter. You can see how this would translate into a good centerfield (although CF defense is rather trick to evaluate).

Kyeong Kang was somewhat of a strikeout machine in 2012, possessing one of the highest strikeout rates in the Southern League. The 24 year old was actually repeating AA, but saw his strikeout rate jump 11 %. The left-handed batter had some really bad whiffs on breaking balls way out of the zone against LHP when I saw him. He has some of the most extreme platoon splits I have ever seen, making Carlos Pena blush. In 2011, he had a .500 OPS against left-handers. In 2012, it dropped to .311. His ISO was .259 against right-handers, but just .033 against lefties. He struck out against 47% of the lefties he faced! At some point, rattling off the numbers is more about fun than it is informative, but the point is that these problems do not seem fixable and are obvious to even the most casual observers. When he is ahead, especially against RHP, he seems pretty patient. He is still going to strikeout, but he has a pretty quick swing. It is inconsistent, as sometimes it is controlled, and sometimes he seems to be swinging out of his shoes:

Kang is a corner outfielder, who actually played most of his games at DH. Because of this, he isn't going to bring the defensive value that the Rays usually value. The strikeouts are certainly a problem, and he will certainly get a shot in AAA before he sniffs the Majors, but he could be a platoon bat to hit RHP as a DH and occasional outfielder in the Majors within the next couple of years.

University of Texas Baseball Scouting Reports

On Sunday, I watched the Texas Longhorns baseball team play Sam Houston State University in Fall baseball action. Without a further introduction, here are my scouting reports:

Madison Carter had a good day at the plate and is a line drive hitter. He is small at 5-10 175, with a crouched stance. He will chase off-speed pitches though. From 2nd to home, he ran a 6.67, really close to what I have for B.J. Upton and Francisco Cervelli (2nd to home isn't as much about speed as home to first is, it also has to do with how touches 3rd and the initial jump as well. This is why I have nearly the exact same times for 2 very different players in Cervelli and Upton).

Mark Payton wasn't nearly as fast (7.58 from 2nd to home), despite being pretty small himself. The right-fielder gets under the ball, which probably isn't best for him since he doesn't seem to have much power at all.

Taylor Stell is a big (6-4 195 Sophomore) right-handed hitter that got roughly a 4.30 time from home to first. He showed some possible power as well, along witha n ability to go the other way.

Collin Shaw DH'ed and showed some patience against lefties (as a left-handed hitter). However, his bat speed is a little slow, and his swing a little long, making it possible to burn fastballs by him.

Erich Weiss has a little hitch in his swing. He is a lanky (6-2, 200) left-handed hitting junior that played 3rd base and showed off a good arm.

Alex Silver has no such issues with his swing, as I really liked it. His size (6-1 195) gives him some power, but he is a slow 1st baseman. I got him at 8.82 on a double, which would put him in Pujols, Morales, Montero territory, but he did pull up a little towards the end, so he is a touch faster.

Jacob Felts looked like a good defensive catcher, with good blocking skills and a solid arm. At the plate, he has a lunge in his swing, which makes things look pretty ugly.

Ben Johnson is a freshman that fouled off a lot of pitches. It was tough for me to see what was up with his swing. It looked perhaps slow, but with good sweep like maybe it is just a long swing. As far as knowing how to approach an at-bat, he looked pretty good.

Landon Steinhagen is a senior outfielder who has a quick bat, but seemed to get started late. Whether that is because some kind of hitch I wasn't seeing or just general hesitation, lack of plate recognition, I am not sure. We should perhaps be careful of making definate statements on plate discipline and pitch recognition since it is the fall.

Jeremy Montalbano is a freshman catcher with a good looking arm. There is also some thunder in his bat and he has a nice swing once he gets it started. He is a catcher, so it isn't surprising that he doesn't run well.

Brooks Marlow didn't go after high fastballs, and the relatively small Sophomore left-handed hitter has a pretty violent but quick swing. He has a crouched stance and sometimes almost comes out of his shoes swinging. His plate discipline was not great. As far as other tools go, he is a below average runner at 4.3 to first, with an arm that looked weak at 2nd base.

Perhaps the player I was most excited to see was freshman shortstop C.J. Hinojosa, who was a late round pick by the Astros but was considered a possible first round pick before a (not serious in terms of long term effects) injury in high school. He wasn't really challenged on defense, but he looked advanced and athletic. At the plate, he will chase occasionally as he is a pretty aggressive hitter. He sprayed left-handed fastballs (a right-handed hitter) all over the field, showing good bat speed. It doesn't look like he has much power, but he should be a good average hitter, which is all you can ask from a shortstop (especially if he is good defensively). Here is video of one of his hits:

Ty Marlow both hit and pitched, even though the right-handed junior is just 5-10.  As a hitter he has kind of a chop swing with mediocre running abilities. As a pitcher, he had a pretty solid fastball despite his size. His issue was when he wasn't able to keep it low (which is usually a problem for short pitchers). When it was down, it was good, when it was high, it got crushed. He really only bounced his breaking ball, so it is tough to read what he has there. Here is a short video:

Chad Hollingsworth was the right-handed starting pitcher, despite being just a freshman. He has a solid change that he can either throw for strikes or spike. He had a decent looking fastball that he located well down in the zone. He looks more like a ground-ball pitcher than a strikeout guy right now.

Toller Boardman is a 6-3 210 freshman left-handed pitcher. He has some good spin and velocity on his fastball:

I saw Cameron Cox in Weatherford twice last year (here and here). On Sunday, he located the ball low well and got a lot of ground-balls. He was throwing strikes, adn they were quality strikes. He was having a little problem missing to his glove side, but he showed off a quality high fastball when he was in trouble. I would probably grade him better than Hollingsworth or Boardman, so he should adjust just fine to better competition.

Dillon Peters is a short (5-11) Sophomore left-handed pitcher. At his current size (200), there is no real reason to believe that he will fill out (and add velocity that way, of course there is other ways to add velocity). He throws a decent sinker, but when he left his fastball up, it wasn't very good. He has a good not great (in movement) changeup that he can throw for strikes.

Travis Duke doesn't throw real hard, but the left-handed freshman has a phenomenal changeup. He has a good delivery, but I didn't really like the arm action (although it was consistent, not tipping the fastball or changeup).

Here is some video on 6-0 freshman Ty Culbreth:

Kirby Below is a left-handed pitcher with an over the top delivery that seems to make him look taller (he is 6-1). He has a pause in his delivery and his fastball stayed high:

Corey Knebler has a high leg kick in his delivery with some weird torque in the middle of it (see if you can see it in the video). I didn't like that at all, as it seems that it would just cause more problems that it would solve and make it hard to repeat. His control and release point were issues for him in his outing. He has a good hard breaking ball along with a slower one that wasn't near as effective:

Notes on the USA Baseball Prospect Classic

I watched a couple of games (one online and another one on MLB Network) of the USA Baseball Prospect Classic. Here are some notes on some of the players:

Stephen Gonsalves is a left handed pitcher with a 90-92 MPH fastball. Skinny and tall, he could grow out more and potentially gain velocity. He has a whole lot of motion in his delivery with a big arm swing. It provides some deception and makes his fastball look harder than it actually is. He was fastball heavy early on and got a whiff on his fastball from Michael Lorenzen. His curveball was 72-73 MPH and moves both vertically and horizontally. He didn't have a lot of command but has a good pick-off move. 

Ryne Stanek of Arkansas is considered a potential top draft pick in the 2013 draft. He showed off a 93-94 MPH fastball that occasionally hit 95-96 MPH. It isn't completely flat, with almost has late sink, and he keeps it middle or low. He has a hard curve with some good break at 80-82 MPH and showed off some big break at times. His 86-87 MPH slider looks a lot like the curve, and looked like a better pitch when he got it down, but he made a lot of high mistakes with it. Most importantly, he has swing and miss stuff. He had a long layoff before his 2nd inning and his fastball looked flat at 93 MPH and was turned into a hit. All of his breaking stuff was really inconsistent. At times it looks great, other times, not that great.

Cameron Varga is right hander with a 91-93 MPH fastball and a 81 MPH breaking ball that hung high in the zone. He actually has a couple different breaking balls, one a 78-79 MPH curve that was really effective. His command really wasn't there, especially on his breaking ball and he really struggled.

Keegan Thompson, from the Class of 2013 from Alabama has a 90 MPH fastball with a mainly high breaking ball didn't look good at 85 MPH that looked like the change. He was struggling with control, but had a pretty good curve in the mid 70s. He hit 92 MPH once when he got ahead 0-2 and things around him weren't going well. He has a little bit of a weird arm action and when he was locating the fastball low, it work liked a relatively effective sinker.

Carson Sands out of Florida (Class of 2014) has a 90-91 MPH lefty fastball. He has a decent looking breaking ball that stayed too high. You may get tired of hearing this, but his command and control was pretty raw.

Austin Cousino showed off a not very impressive arm in center. He isn't very big, and was jammed on a 95 MPH fastball. A normal at-bat including him getting jammed then chasing a breaking ball. He just didn't look good at plate but he can run.

D.J. Peterson got around on a couple 95 MPH fastballs, with a foul and then a hard pulled single. Along with the quick bat, he has a weird swing with almost has a hitch in his body. The righty came open a little too quick on a hanging breaking ball, grounding out to 3rd. Peterson also got blown away by a fastball, and looked at a breaking ball in zone. He is a first baseman, and didn't look good there defensively.
Garrett Williams was also blown away by a fastball. He looked bad on the breaking ball as well. His lefty swing is pretty violent and almost one handed. He has a great arm and pitches as well. The left hander was at 89 MPH on the fastball with a 77 MPH sweeping curve and 85 MPH unimpressive change. He is part of the 2013 class out of Louisiana.
Trevor Williams of Arizona State hit 94 MPH on the fastball. He can sink it, and is a groundball guy. His change didn't look very good with a not good movement or location. He was effective though.
Marco Gonzalez hit a high 93 MPH fastball out of the zone for a double to the wall. He also got a bloop hit the other way. He has a good looking left handed swing with good bat control. He pulled a fastball down the middle from a lefty for a line drive single. He can also pitch, and evidently pretty well from what I have heard.
Jose Trevino has good power but looked bad on good breaking balls. He also whiffed on fastball that caught a lot of the plate at 90 MPH. He is just a big, raw hitter.
Bryson Brigman looks like he has good speed, and got a hit the other way. Nathan Conforto is a high schooler from Alabama that DH'ed. He had a bad whiff on a hanging breaking ball.
Reese McGuire is a good receiving catcher with a not necessarily a good throwing arm (even though it looks like he has the arm strength). In the Class of 2013 out of Washington, the left handed hitter has a quick uppercut swing.
Johnny Field has an extremely weak arm in left field. He has a pull swing and is an okay runner.
Trea Turner is a burner that seems to have a good eye. He doesn't have a power swing, but he did hit a ball pretty hard
Timmy Richards from Long Beach (class of 2013) is a Cal State Fullerton commit. The skinny shortstop should fill out a little. He was fooled badly by a not all that good breaking ball. It doesn't appear to handle the bat really well or have a good eye. He has a really goofy swing. He runs okay from what I saw, but isn't a real fast runner. He also made a bad play out in the field.

Cavan Biggio (son of Craig Biggio) is a balanced hitter, and can go the other way and pull it. He has some power and pulled a difficult outside pitch for HR. He is a contact guy that will chase pitches.

 Drew Ward looks good at 3rd base and is a good looking athlete. He is a lefty hitter looked silly chasing breaking balls.
 Jake Reed is pretty short and has a little bit of a low arm angle. He is just 88-89 MPH (touched 90 MPH) as a righty.
Kevin Davis is a righty at 91-92 MPH with a bit of sink. He struggled to throw strikes but has a decent looking soft slider/curve
William Abreu is lefty hitter with good size and speed and plays CF.

Dan Child of  Oregon State has a weird messy delivery with a huge leg kick. He sits at 92-93 MPH with some deception and side to side movement at times. The slider doesn't look very good, and stays high.

Nick Gordon is very raw both defensively and offensively but has elite speed like his brother Dee.

Ian Clarkin (University of San Diego commit) is a left hander that throws 92-93 MPH with a big looping curve at 71 MPH. The fastball rides high and it looks like he has a 82 MPH changeup. He didn't show any command at all of his  breaking pitches.

Dominic Taccolini, a high school right handed pitcher out of Sugarland Texas, is a big guy but is only throwing 90-91 MPH. It also looked like he threw a separate moving fastball that was 1-2 MPH slower and had some decent break, but he left it up too much. He also has a curve and a slider that have decent breaks.

Hunter Green, a lefty from Kentucky with a 87-90 (he hit 92 MPH once, but it was pretty wild) MPH fastball that he can locate low. His curveball is at 73-75 MPH with a changeup at about 80-82 MPH. The curveball looked better than the change, especially when you factor in current command. His velocity is inconsistent on all his pitches, and he was having some control issues.

Scouting Reports on the Idaho Chukars and Orem Owlz

On Monday, June 18th 2012, I saw the Orem Owlz take on the Idaho Chukars (Royals) in the Pioneer League opener. It was a wild 16-14 game in which Idaho won.

Idaho:

Bryan Brickhouse is a 20 year old pitcher that was making his professional debut. He was drafted in the 3rd round in 2011 by the Royals. He looked sort of like a guy that was making his professional debut. He had very raw control that fluctuated between decent and awful. At one time in the game, he walked 3 in a row. It was a disastrous outing where he didn't make it out of the 2nd. He was throwing quite a bit of curves, and had some real problems with it. He wasn't throwing it for strikes, but he did end the 1st with some good ones. His fastball hit 94 MPH and in the first inning he was getting ahead with it, throwing a lot of strikes, but also giving up a lot of fouls. He gave up a homer in the first, but when he throws the fastball near the zone, he is too advanced for his league with that velocity. If he can gain fastball command, and throw it high consistently like he likes to, he can be really good (especially if he gains any kind of control over his curve).

Clayton Shulz was actually an undrafted left-handed relief pitcher. Last year with the Arizona Royals, Shulz threw 16.1 scoreless innings. He appears to be a soft tossing lefty, throwing a lot of breaking balls and giving up a lot of contact. He gave up a couple hard line drives, but he also got some ground-balls. His breaking ball gets all the way down to 73 MPH and he appears to be a decent athlete.
Alec Mills was the 22nd round pick in 2012 out of Tennessee-Martin. His professional career started out as a disaster, throwing 2 ugly pitches to start, then following it with a home run. After a couple hard hit balls, Mills settled down. His 69 MPH slow curve got him a couple whiffs.

Jack Lopez is the 19 year old shortstop drafted in the 16th round in 2011. He didn't show much range on defense. On offense, it looks like he likes to pull the ball. On an outside pitch, he had a weird reach hack, but he could put good swings on pitches that weren't on the outside part of the plate.
Adalberto Mondesi is the son of former MLBer Raul Mondesi and was signed for 2 million dollars by the Royals last year. He is just 16, so much younger than his competition. He DH'ed in the game I saw him. He got a pitch up and hit it well, and showed a surprising amount of discipline, although he did chase a couple pitches. As a switch hitter, his bat speed wasn't great and he got jammed in one at-bat and it left his bat in splinters. He showed off some really plus speed as well.
Nicholas Cuckovich is 21, but still raw looking at the plate. He has nice size and good speed to go along with it. He has a crouched stance, but he comes out of it a lot. Julio Aparicio is another guy with a lot of speed despite looking bigger than his listed weight of 6'2" 175. He chased a breaking pitch to ground-out, but has good looking contact skills with not a good looking approach.
Jin-Ho Shin looks like a good receiver and pitch blocker behind the plate, with a pretty good looking arm as well. However, he looked pretty ugly at the plate (although he did have a hit the other way).
Carlos Garcia is listed as a 3rd baseman but played 2nd. He did not look good at all defensively and really showed nothing at the plate either.
Elier Hernandez is 17 years old and played right field. He was signed in July of last year out of the Dominican Republic. He had a pretty weak arm and wasn't a very refined fielder, dropping an extremely easy fly-ball. He has good speed, but the ball doesn't really fly off his bat. It doesn't look like he has much power at all, especially for a corner outfielder. Ethan Chapman was a 30th round pick by the Royals in 2012. He has good speed, and a good defensive reputation as a centerfielder. He is sort of a slappy type hitter with some food contact skills. He was fooled on a breaking ball, but he could definitely get his share of line drives.

For the Orem Owlz, the Angels' Pioneer League affiliate, Drew Martinez played centerfield and made some good defensive plays. He has good range and can run down quite a bit of balls. The speed element is obviously key to his whole game, as he bunted himself on base, then stole 2nd. He played 48 games last year with two different low level affiliates and had a minuscule slugging of .281, but a .357 OBP. Wendell Soto is a small switch hitting shortstop with above average speed. This is his 3rd year and the minors, and his OPS has hovered around just .660 the whole time. He had a long at-bat with good contact on fouls before pulling a wind aided homer. Another long at-bat included a chase and whiff of a long fastball before popping out. Defensively, he booted a really easy play.
Jarrod Parks played 2nd, despite being listed as a 3rd baseman. He really didn't look like he had a good arm. He was picked in the 24th round in 2011. He hit a ball hard, but also was chasing at pitches and whiffing. Michael Bolaski played 3rd base, and was picked in the 23rd round in 2010. He has a pretty mediocre arm. So far, his minor league career has been pretty poor as far as offensive numbers. Jonathan Walsh out of the University of Texas had one of the worst defensive games I have ever seen in right field. He made 3 errors, but had at least 3 other misplays out there. He also has a mediocre arm, which didn't help him. Offensively, he chased the first breaking ball he saw and whiffed on another one.

Brandon Efferson was the starter for the Owlz, and he really had mixed results in the Arizona League last year. He struck out more than 3 times the amount he walked, but gave up more fly-balls than ground-balls and had an ERA over 5. He is really small for a potential starting pitcher (he pitched mainly in relief last year) at 5'11. He had okay looking velocity, and it looked like he had a moving fastball too. However, he was breaking ball heavy. His breaking pitch was 82 MPH and it wasn't really a put away pitch and it didn't have a whole lot of break. His control wasn't all that good and he was hit pretty hard.
Garrett Baker pitched 18 games with the Owlz last year and it went terrible. The lefty was getting a lot of soft grounders in the game. He has a curveball he can throw for strikes, but it flattens out at times. It is definitely his favorite pitch.
Joseph Krehbiel pitched in 5 games last year and was absolutely rocked. Monday was no different. He has a 90 MPH fastball with a slider, but he has a really weird delivery that seems like it would be hard to repeat.

Scouting Reports on Texas A&M Kingsville and Tarleton

On Sunday April 1st (No April Fools I promise) 2012, I watched Texas A&M Kingsville play Tarleton University.

The starting pitcher for Kingsville was Zachary Pettiford, a right handed junior listed at 6-4 220. He was throwing quite a bit harder than Tarleton's starter (more on him later), but was most likely south of 90 MPH. He also had a hard slider and a curveball, and although he threw some good ones, he had real control issues with those pitches. He hit a batter with one, but they seemed to be good complementary pitches even though he will have to live with mainly his fastball while those pitches develop. I am not sure he can do that with his fastball. He gave up lots of flyballs and it turned into lots of runs in the game.

For Kingville's lineup, Sophomore Dustin Aguilar can fly, at 5-10 165. The center fielder has a decent arm but had some trouble with the breaking ball. For the most part he wasn't chasing but he really didn't do much with pitches I thought he should have crushed. Ben Villafuerte can play in both the outfield and 2nd base (where I saw him). The small junior wasn't real fast and lacks patience at the plate. Trent Wagner has good size at 6-3 200, but the right fielder is really slow out in the field. Catcher Jake Mediola has a good arm, with a relatively quick release. Predictably, the senior is pretty slow. 1st baseman James Wallace looked awful on most breaking pitches, even though he did smack a hanging one. The junior drove the ball to the wall once but struck out the next time. The DH was listed 2nd baseman/pitcher Cameron Dullnig. The senior had some pretty lackluster swings, even with a couple of hits. He can definately run though. 3rd baseman James Black drove the ball pretty well in his at-bats. The junior stands at 6-0 185. Mario Siller is a small freshman shortstop who isn't a quick runner. He did seem pretty solid in the field,but couldn't drive the ball very well. Julian Duran had an awful drop in left field, and was chasing a bunch of breaking pitches. He does run pretty well though.

Cole Foster is a freshman right handed reliever who stands at just 5-11 179. He isn't going to blow you away with velocity, but not many pitches were in the middle of the plate. He threw mainly fastballs, with a very mediocre breaking pitch that he couldn't get down. The glove flies ahead of him in his delivery and 2 of his first 3 pitches turned into contact. He does field his position pretty well.

For Tarleton, a team I have seen 3 times now (and will see them at least one more time), the starter was Matt Buckmaster, a pitcher I have seen before (read previous posts to see more detailed scouting reports on the team). The lefty junkballer threw a lot of strikes (his first two fastballs were down the middle), and had some hard hit balls. His breaking ball stayed pretty low, but it provides very little speed differential.
Landon Thompson is a guy who I have seen with the bat and in the field but hadn't seen pitch yet. He is just 5-11 190, and has okay velocity. His plan was clearly to just throw a lot of low fastballs. They weren't fooling anyone, and just made him get behind in the count. When the fastballs crept up he was hurt and he couldn't consistently throw them low. He broke out a curve but has little to no feel for it. He threw a couple good ones finally, only to hang the next one. Even though he was awful for the most part, his fastball seemed better when he put it on the inside or the outside of the plate (and not at the low part).
Kyle Supack came in and showed a good pickoff move. He got a nice jamshot and put a lot of fastballs in the middle to middle low part of the plate. He hit 2 batters in a row and was absolutely tattooed.
Tanner Ross was throwing a lot of curveballs and looked a lot better than the last time I saw him. He had some good stuff, and was getting quite a bit of swing and misses early but then walked 2 in a row as the stuff became less deceptive.

For the lineup on a day when the ball was carrying, Garrett Hardey hit a homer on a breaking pitch. That is pretty remarkable considering he hasn't done anything on breaking balls in other at-bats I have seen him. Defensively, he looked awful with 2 really bad defensive plays.
Ryan Small hit a double on a fastball right down the middle. Andrew Jacobi DH'ed but is listed as a catcher, and is really small for a catcher. He can run though, which he has to as he is a ground-ball hitter. Andrew Wolfe made a really nice play at center field, while Noah Ringenberger looked bad out in right field. He did drive a low fastball to the wall though.

Scouting Reports on Abilene Christian and East Central

We went and saw Abilene Christian (again) play East Central University. The main reason I wanted to go see them was because Jordan Herrera, the reliever that impressed us last time, was starting for ACU. Here is one video of him:

Like any normal person, I obsessively categorized nearly every pitch and made half a page full of jumbled notes. His fastball tended to stay high and to the left (that is inside to right-handed hitters, and outside to left-handed pitchers), but he left the fastball down the middle for a sac fly. As one would expect in a transition from a reliever to a starter, he had less swing and miss stuff, giving up quite a bit of fouls. He got 3 strike outs on 7 swinging strikes with 15 looking strikes. He had some problems with his breaking ball, as he left it up too many times and got hurt when he left it down the middle. When its good, its nasty and low and away from righties, but you would like to see more of it acting like that. He was also able to locate one of his breaking pitches on the low inside corner to righties. Control problems were notable, as he had 3 wild pitches and 21 balls (versus 22 non contact strikes). He had a needlessly long at-bat that turned into a walk against a not very good hitter. He seems to be considerably poorer against lefties,which is something he needs to clean up if he is going to be a starter. He seemed to lose velocity and effectiveness as the game wore on, and had some questions about put away ability as a starter. I really thought they left him in too long, and he was the victim of back to back drops. He gave up 6 fly-balls and 3 other infield fly-balls, and most of them were soft fly-balls. He walked 2 batters, with a questionable hit by pitch, with only 3 ground-balls versus 4 fly-balls. In the end, I wasn't as impressed with Herrera on Saturday as I was a couple weeks ago, but he throws hard (he appeared to throw harder than a guy that I know was clocked at 88 MPH), and could be a draft prospect as either a reliever or starter. Here is another video of Herrera:

East Central's starting pitcher was Eric Fredrick, a 6-4 lefty from Pima Community College. There, he was very unimpressive, with a 4.92 ERA and 5.4 K/9IP and more walks than strikeouts (in high school his ERA was 4.3). Here is him throwing:

He doesn't throw real hard, and even with his size he still would fit in the "crafty lefty" category. He got some called strikes on a breaking ball, which can neutralize righties. He also got a swinging strikeout on a breaking ball out of the zone to the number 9 hitter. However, the ball was getting scorched of his bat, and he was staying high in the zone and ran into some control problems in the 3rd. He did find a nice low fastball in the zone to get a couple strikes on Rodge Macy (more on him later). I was impressed with that, but wanted to see more and as his previous statistics would indicate, he wasn't consistent with it. One positive thing that was out of the ordinary was that he definitely got better as the game went along. That is, it didn't help hitters that they had seen him 2 or 3 times, which means he is not a "one trick pony" and can showcase different pitches to get out hitters. On the defensive side, he seemed stiff and was not a good fielder, and made a disastrous throwing error. As "stiff" would suggest, he wasn't very fast at getting to first. In my mind, he isn't much of a pro prospect, as he doesn't have velocity or consistent command. The bad high school and community college statistics did surprise me though after watching him pitch.

Here is a second look at the Abilene hitters, most notably Conway and Macy. Kyle Conway DHed again, which was disappointing, as I wanted to see him field. I will just assume he isn't very good in the field (or else he would be out there), and is a bat only prospect. Speaking of bat, here is Conway batting:

Conway drew a 7 pitch walk, and his only swing was a foul. He had a 4 pitch ground-ball, with 2 foul-balls in the at-bat. He was pitched outside in the 2nd at-bat, and pulled a line-drive and got a double on a 4 pitch at-bat. He also had a 3 pitch foul-out.

Rodge Macy was the guy I really liked the first time I saw Abilene, as I really like his patience and pitch recognition (and Conway's is pretty good too). Macy was little bit disappointing, with two 5 pitch strikeouts, one swinging on a high fastball, and a check swing strikeout. He did have a 4 pitch walk, and a 3 pitch grounder for a single. Macy did come in to catch late, and had a meh arm. If he can catch even okay, it enhances his offensive value. As expected, here is some video of him hitting:

Some other notes from Abilene Christian's lineup:
Duncan Blades played 3rd base instead of first like last time, and it appears he fits that position better. I'm still not sold on his bat, but he had a long at-bat and hit the ball hard his third time up (after two very forgettable plate appearances).
I was again impressed by catcher Emmett Niland's arm, but he dropped an easy fly-ball. He doesn't block the ball very well, which is a problem because of his small size for a catcher. All they wanted him to do was bunt it seemed, which tells you all you need to know about his bat. Tyler Eager dropped an easy fly-ball (Bruce Gerhardt also dropped a similar one) as a centerfielder, and nearly made a nice diving playing and missed that as well. He does have a decent arm. Chuck Duarte had a nice double, and Ryan Luckie pinch hit and got a hard double, and runs pretty well.
Brady Rodriquez, who started the last game we saw and really struggled, was used as a lefty specialist, got a lefty to ground-out and then was taken out. 6-4 230 right-hander Michael Curtis was then brought in as a reliever.

Curtis uses both his size and his reaching back to gain velocity. He had a high leg kick and seemed to hide the ball well. However, his breaking ball is slow and stays up. He threw a wild pitch, and gave up lots of fouls. His first two at-bats were 1 pitch (fly-out and infield fly-out on a pitch out of the zone). He got a ground-ball on a breaking ball in a 3 pitch at-bat, and jammed a guy on the 5th or 6th pitch of at-bat that turned into a grounder. He got yet another grounder on the 4th or 5th pitch pitch of an at-bat, a 3 pitch ground-ball, a 2 pitch hard ground-ball, and a 6 pitch ground-ball. While they didn't hit the ball too hard off of him, the no strike-outs seem to imply that he doesn't have a swing and miss pitch (and it certainly didn't look like it watching him).

East Central Lineup:
Jeff Schmidt played some nice defense at 3rd, but looked overwhelmed in his second plate appearance. He had a 6 pitch fly-out, where he chased a low pitch. He had a strikeout, a flyout, and got jammed on a long AB for a grounder.
Jeremy Stein chased a low pitch for an infield fly-out (one of 2 such fly-outs), and had an ugly 3 pitch strikeout. As one would guess, Stein didn't hit for much (an OBP of around .330), but stole 17 bases (out of 18 attempts). Ethan Gold had a 3 pitch soft fly-ball, a 4 pitch fly-ball, a line drive single, a ground-ball on a long AB, and a 2 RBI fly-ball. Greg Hamrock had real questions about his pitch recognition, with a ground-ball and an infield fly-ball (he did scorch a line drive just foul). Hamrock hit .330 at Rio Hondo College. Jonathan Ramos fell for a breaking ball, had a 1 pitch fly-ball and a long walk. Ramos was decent at Indian Hills Community college, with a .335 batting average and .424 OBP (with 1 homer). Gilbert Guardado didn't hit for much at San Diego City College, with a batting average of around .270, and it isn't surprising watching him hit. He is listed at 5' 8", but that is very generous. He had 2 ground-outs (8 pitches seen in total), and struck out chasing. Chris Montgomery was the catcher, and it appeared that he had a good arm. He doesn't have much of a bat though (not in junior college or at East Central), as he had 2 straight 1 pitch at-bats, a line drive sac fly, an ground-ball, an infield fly-ball, and a hard line drive. Joel Pirez was one of the few guys that started that didn't go to junior college. While listed as a catcher, he played 1st base. He had an ugly drop on a foul ball, a 5 pitch ground-ball off a high fastball, tried to bunt for a hit unsuccessfully, a line drive, and a 6 pitch ground-ball. I really wasn't impressed with any of these hitters.
The only hitter left was Rick Hepworth, who I found interesting, and I still can't tell if its in a good or bad way. He stood at 6 foot 7, so freakishly tall for a baseball player, and is built to only play first. In 2011, he hit just over .300 and actually pitched some (but is no longer listed as a pitcher). He has not much bat speed, and was way late on a bunch of pitches. He also was a baserunner, but had long really patient at-bats. He had a walk, a deep fly-ball, and a 3 pitch ground-ball.

We stayed for the first inning of the second game of the double hitter to get a look at both starters.
Clint Cooper of Abilene Christian:

He seemed to keep the ball low using a low arm angle, but he hit a batter. He gave up a hard hit grounder to a lefty on the first pitch, which was low. He struck out another lefty looking, and he was trying to keep it outside to lefties, producing grounders.

Will Grimes of East Central is 6-3 (even though both Cooper and him were listed at 6' 3", Grimes was clearly taller) but kinda skinny at 195. Here is him:

He has a big slow delivery and it seemed like he had more velocity than Cooper. Tyler Eager had problems catching up with his fastball early in the count but eventually hit it hard when he did catch up. His breaking ball cut middle in to right handers. He also hit a batter, and made Conway look bad on a check swing and later gave up a deep fly-ball on 4 pitches. He got Macy to ground-out on 3 pitches.

Thanks to my girlfriend Rachel for helping, mainly with the videos.

Scouting Reports on Tarleton and McMurry

On Saturday (February 4 2012) we saw the University of Tarleton play McMurry. The wind was blowing rather strong, but not overpowering. The umpire had a wide and pretty inconsistent zone affecting the outcome of at least 2-3 at-bats. Tarleton won the game 2-1 on a walk-off hit.

The most impressive player by far was relief pitcher Britt Robertshaw. He is a 6 foot 3 inches pitcher who previously pitched at Northwestern (of Louisiana) and Blinn College. He throws in the low nineties, reportedly getting all the way up to 96 MPH. He was by far the hardest thrower in the game, and he kept the ball low in warmups but put it all over the place during the game. He reportedly has 4 different pitches, but he only threw fastballs in the game (he really didn't need any other pitchers in the game). He struck out two (with a wild pitch) and got a weak groundball in 1 inning of play, stranding both inherited runners. At Blinn as a freshman, he really struggled with a 7.60 ERA, 6.75 K/9IP, and just one more strikeout than walks. At Northwestern, he was no better, with a WHIP of 2.76 and over twice as many walks as strikeouts in 12 games (11 of them relief appearances). He has had some injury problems, but passed the eyeball test with a good enough fastball, and if he can develop a breaking ball pitch, he may be a prospect.

Matt Buckmaster was the starting pitcher for Tarleton. I was without a radar gun, but he didn't throw very hard, and he had an okay pickoff move. He gave up 7 groundballs (with a GIDP), 2 flyballs, and 7 line drives. He struck out just 4 and walked 2, giving up 1 run.


The starting pitcher for McMurray was Spencer Smith, a 6 foot Junior from Amarillo. He was kind of big (Sidney Ponson-ish), but didn't throw that hard. He had an awful pickoff move, but he did keep the ball low. His breaking pitch was interesting, as it had good speed differential and solid movement, but he couldn't get hardly an swing and misses. He got 9 groundballs versus just 3 flyballs (including one to the warning track, about 360 feet), and one linedrive. They made a lot of contact off of him (just 2 strikeouts), but they didn't hit the ball very hard (excluding the near miss home run). He did hit two batters and walked 4, so control wasn't always there. In 2010, Smith really struggled with an ERA over 10 and a BAA of over .350. It seems he, at least what we saw, has improved since them. However, since he is a contact style pitcher, his control problems are very concerning. Pitchers who can't miss bats at this low of a level seldom stand a chance.

Other pitchers who pitched in the game included Jacob Detoni, a 6-2 Freshman who gave up 5 groundballs, 2 flyballs (one deep and one in the infield), and 1 linedrive. He was sort of deceptive with a soft breaking ball, it at least seemed like he was throwing harder overall. You would thought he would have struckout more, but he only struck out two, one on a very questionable call. He also had major control issues, with 2 wild pitches, a HBP, and a walk. Kenneth Stockton had really questionable control (wild pitch), not much of a pickoff move, and gave up 2 line drives, a hard grounder, and an infield popup (also struck out a batter).

Tarleton had a definite "small-ball" approach, and cost themselves 2 outs in the first inning. Evan Robinson was the starting shortstop (who had the walk off hit in the game), and had a failed sac bunt attempt, a 3 pitch slap groundout, a soft flyball double, a flyball single, and a five pitch groundball. He is just a freshman out of high school, but he is small, listed at 5-7, 155 LBS. Andrew Wolfe was a senior outfielder who hit at the bottom of the order. He tried, unsuccessfully, to bunt for a hit, grounded out, sac bunted (on the second strike), with a 5 pitch walk. He had decent speed, and is a little bigger, but not very large with virtually no power. Jared Musgrove is listed as a catcher but DHed and was pinch run for (by junior Ty Crump, who we didn't really get to see run, but had a .200 BA and .385 OBP in 10 ABs for Grayson County College in 2011). He had a 5 pitch at bat where he hit a hard grounder, was hit by a pitch, and fell for a breaking ball out of the zone during a 4 pitch at bat that ended in a ground out. He is a sophomore who is about standard size for Tarleton, at 5-10 175 LBS. Christopher Patton is a sophomore outfielder who had a 5 pitch foul ball out, a 2 pitch medium flyball out, a 3 pitch grounder, and a 4 pitch short swing liner (3.5 P/PA). Noah Ringenberger is a junior outfielder who also pitches (he didn't pitch in the game we saw, but had a 5.65 ERA in 14.1 innings at Northeastern State last year). He had a 4 pitch walk, a 1 pitch groundball double, a 6 pitch infield pop, and a 2 pitch groundball single (just 3.25 Pit/PA). He should have had a stolen base, but a HBP canceled it, and then he was later thrown out trying to steal third.
Ryan Small was the catcher, and he had a strong, but inaccurate arm. He did make a great stop behind the plate and seemed to know what he was doing back there. He was HBP, had a groundball chop, a one pitch groundout, and a 2 pitch line drive. He played Junior College at Midland, and is currently a junior. Austin Coble is a relatively small junior who can also pitch. He had a 4 pitch weak groundout, a 6 pitch strikeout looking (at a pitch that looked off the plate), a 7 pitch strikeout (where he chased a pitch out of the zone), and a 1 pitch ground out. Landon Thompson is a very similar player who can pitch as well, but is a freshman instead of a junior. He had a 1 pitch ground-out, a 1 pitch flyball, a 6 pitch strikeout looking, and a 6 pitch walk. Even though he chased one pitch out of the zone, he seemed to be a passive Sam Fuld type hitter. Thompson also leaves one wanting when it comes to speed, as he is rather slow.

Garrett Hardey was by far the most impressive hitter out of either side, and I would rank him the second best player on either team (behind Robertshaw). He is a 6-5 senior firstbasemen who is listed at 215 LBS, but looked very scrawny. At first he had a nice arm, and made a good pick. At the plate, he had a 4 pitch groundout, a 4 pitch strikeout, a 5 pitch walk, and a warning track shot that went about 360 feet. He seems to have power, but one would hope he will fill out more (even though he is a senior, which makes it more unlikely). He did struggle some with breaking pitches, so if pitch recognition is actually a problem, then it hurts any kind of value he has immensely. At West Texas JC, he batted .346, with a SLG of .586, with 21 walks versus 29 K's. He appeared in just 19 games last year with Tarleton and struggled.

McMurry was a horrible fielding team, the epitome of which was the 2nd baseman Marcellus Biggins, who had defensive struggles the entire game and eventually made an error. He had big size (he reminded us of Delmon Young with his body build, and furthered the comparison with his bad defense and a chasing of a high pitch). He had a 7 pitch ground-out, a 2 pitch ground-out, a 5 pitch line drive, and a 5 pitch strikeout where he chased a pitch way out of the zone (a 4.75 Pitch/PA in the game though). The third baseman, who we believe was Jacob Bermejo, fell down on a key play. With the bat Bermejo had 2 line drive outs and a 5 pitch infield hit. 1st Baseman Matt Thompson (who went to high school at Southlake Carroll), had an error as well. He had a 6 pitch medium depth flyball, just missed a double down the line (but it went foul), and a 3 pitch GIDP. The LF for McMurry also made a throwing error. There were positives on defense though, as SS Kory Moench showed off a good arm, and had a 5 pitch walk. He also hit a hard grounder, another 1 pitch ground-out, and a line drive out. Brad Baker was the catcher for McMurry, and he showed off a good arm and made a great diving grab on a foul ball. He did seem to have a major whole in his swing though, but had a 7 pitch at bat, a 5 pitch infield popup, and a 3 pitch medium flyball. The strangest thing about him was his size, as he is just 5-4 160 LBS.
Here is Baker (I would have taken more photos but my hands were way too cold to operate my phone):

Ruben Zendejas is a junior outfielder from Mission college. He too is very small, just 5' 5" 145 LBS. He had a 1 pitch groundball hit, a 6 pitch walk, and a sac bunt. He had decent speed, although neither team had really good speed for "small ball" type teams. Dylan DeLeon was a Junior outfielder who was a little bit bigger (5'10" 165 LBS). He had a 1 pitch groundball hit, a 3 pitch strikeout, and another 1 pitch at-bat. Jordan Brown was the last outfielder, and the senior was both bigger and more patient. He had a 7 pitch line drive, a 5 pitch strikeout, a 4 pitch line drive, and a 2 pitch hard grounder. Andrew Bell is a 6'2" junior who is also listed as an outfielder but DHed in the game. He has no speed and was caught stealing, and had a major hole in his swing. He had a 6 pitch line drive single, a 4 pitch strikeout, a 2 pitch groundball (for a hit), and an infield hit after 5 pitches.

Thanks to David Withers (Big D of football picking fame) for helping with this post.

Is Vladimir Guerrero worth 5 Million in 2012?

I was intrigued by a report that Vladimir Guerrero and Johnny Damon are both holding out expecting a 5 million dollar deal. I clearly believe Johnny Damon is worth that, as he had a bad BABIP year in 2011 and was still worth his 5.5 million dollar salary. However, as I hadn't written an article yet on Vlad, I thought it would be interesting to see whether he is actually worth 5 million dollars to a team. He had just a .1 WAR with the Orioles in 2011, obviously not worth 5 million dollars, while over the 3 last years he has averaged a .8 WAR. Again, this is worth less than 3 million dollars according to the Halladay Standard. Over the last 3 years, he has averaged .54 Runs Created per game, or 75.8 Runs Created per 140 games or about 10 runs more than an average player. In 2011, he was about average at creating runs. Over the last 3 years, he has a 109 OPS +, with an OPS + of 101. However, he is terrible at defense, and the Orioles didn't even let him play defense in 2011. So while he seems to be a slightly above average hitter, you have to count that with his defense he is either a below average player or strictly a DH, which limits his signing places. This makes it borderline absurd to suggest that Guerrero is worth 5 million dollars, but in the end, it only takes one team paying it. Lets do a final projection. Using ZIPS, Vlad is projected to create 74.29 Runs in 137 games, so combining ZIPS, 2011, and 2009-2011, we get Guerrero with 71.8 Runs or about 6 runs more than an average player in 140 games with an OPS + of slightly over 100. So Vlad does seem to be poised to have a slightly above average offensive season in 2012. So if he is willing to settle for under 3 million, he is definitely worth taking a look at.

Athletics sign Jonny Gomes

The Athletics signed Jonny Gomes to a one year 1.1 million dollar deal. He split 2011 between the Nationals and Reds and posted a .7 WAR, worth 2.1 million dollars according to the Halladay Standard. Over the past 3 years, Gomes has averaged a .3 WAR (worth 900,000 dollars) with a .297 BABIP in that time. Offensively, he has a .329 OBP, 106 OPS +, and .330 Secondary Average. He is an above average home run hitter, with an ISO of .209, walks slightly above average, and has a 3.84 Pit/PA. So basically in every offensive category Gomes is slightly above average. Defensively, its a whole other story. His fielding percentage and range factor are both way under average. Depending on which metric you trust more, Gomes has cost his teams 46-40 runs more than an average fielder would in his career. Using runs created, we can measure (we did this in the Jack Cust article) how many runs and wins Gomes will be worth for the Athletics. According to Runs Created per Game metric, Gomes is worth .59 runs per game (technically he has a 5.3 Runs Created per game metric, but that assumes an offense of 9 Gomes', here I am isolating it to 1 Gomes'). Since he has played 428 games in the outfield, he will cost his team a run more than average about every 10 games. An average offensive player would create 65.3 runs in 140 games, while Gomes would create about 82.6 runs, or 17.3 runs more than an average player. Defensively in this time (assuming he never plays DH), he will cost his team 14 runs more than average. This is all a long way of saying that Gomes is worth 3.3 more runs a year than an "average player". There are two ways to look at this, I believe. One way makes Billy Beane and the Swinging A's look like geniuses, and one way makes Gomes' agent look like a genius. First, Beane might point out that the average MLB player salary is 3.1 million. Gomes is slightly better than average, and yet will be playing for a third of that salary. Gomes needs a new agent. Gomes' agent might try to save his job by pointing out that according to the Halladay Standard (a standard we have relied on heavily in this blog), Gomes is worth just $900,000, and so he is making 200 thousand extra dollars. It all depends on which metric you rely on more.

Free Agent Watch: Jim Thome

Elderly slugger Jim Thome had a 1.4 WAR in 2011, and has averaged a 1.9 WAR in the past 3 years, which is worth 5.7 million dollars. He made just 3 million dollars in 2011. He can no longer field, and is just used as only as a DH. This should rule out all NL teams, and AL teams like Mark Reynolds' Orioles, whoever signs David Ortiz, and any other team with a DH only player. However, similar to how Frank Thomas was able to stick around so long, his OBP and OPS is still good. In Minnesota, Thome had a .387 OBP, .949 OPS, 1.15 PPG, and 2.24 PAPP. These are really good numbers, and at a .266 BA, he may be undervalued. He has a career OBP of .403, so getting on base is nothing new. He had a 6.2 RC/G, .629 Offensive Winning Percentage, .386 Sec A, and .220 ISO in 2011. In 2010, his Secondary Average was .562. He has been a flyball hitter most of his career, but in 011 he hit more groundballs than league average, a concern for sure. His power has definitely waned, but he is still an above average power hitter. It is hard to believe given his size and speed but he grounds in to less double plays than average because he is a flyball hitter. If Youkilis is the Greek god of walks then Thome might be the Roman god of walks, walking 17% of the time in his career and 14.2% in 2011 (league average is like 8.7%). He saw 4.28 Pit/PA in 2011, a 104.85 PPS. In his career, he sees 4.2 Pit/PA, giving him a 106.07 PPS. One other small area of concern is that despite 2011 being a relative down year for Thome, his BABIP was higher than career average (.327 vs. .321). He was the fifth oldest player in the league in 2011, but he wants to still play and all signs point to him still being able to. If you can get him for 5 million or less, gobble him up.

Aramis Ramirez

The Cubs did a really curious thing this season. Despite being stuck in a terrible season with a large payroll, they didn't really part with any of their high paid players at the trade deadline (besides Fukudome). Among those kept was Aramis Ramirez, who is scheduled to be a free agent this year (if the Cubs decide not to exercise the option on his contract). There are now reports that the Florida Marlins will pursue him this off-season (as they plan to turn into a big market team with a new stadium). Ramirez is currently overpaid at 14.6 million with a WAR of 3.7 (giving him a WASP of 3946), but my guess would be that he will still get at least this much in free agency. He has proved to be an absolute liability on defense with a -5.9 D-WAR career-wise. He has also been inconsistent on offense, despite a good year this year, as 09-10 (both injury plagued) were not very impressive. I would stay far far away from this guy if I were the Marlins or any other National League team with limited payroll, he is clearly diminishing in skills, and seems best suited as a DH.

You Can't do that to Baseball!

Major League Baseball is considering shaking up its league alignment and giving both the American and National League 15 teams each, which means that one National League team would move to the American League. The thinking is that it would have to be a team from the NL Central moving to the AL west. The favorite seems to be the Houston Astros moving to the AL to foster a rivalry with the Texas Rangers. This must be long term thinking however, as the Astros have been terrible the past couple of seasons and been destroyed in inter-league play by the Rangers. There are also reports that the Baseball gods may only approve of the sale of the Astros if the new owner agrees to move his team to the AL.

Of course baseball is a fairly conservative sport, probably more than any other sport, change is met with great resistance. There was nearly rioting in the street over the DH (some baseball purists refuse to acknowledge it exists, much like Highlander nerds refuse to acknowledge the remake), and then the Wildcard. However, this obviously doesn't mean there can't be change. The DH did come about and the Wildcard did happen, and its a better league because of it (can you imagine no Jim Thome, David Ortiz, no 2003 Florida Marlins, or no 2004 “curse-breaking” Red Sox?).

A big part of this deal would that there would be two ideas that I find at least concerning, 2 more teams would make the playoffs, and there would be weekly inter-league games. Baseball currently has 8 teams going to the playoffs, 4 from each league. The winners of the 3 divisions in each league and one Wildcard team make it. Compared to other major sports leagues, baseball has the smallest playoff field. This leads to over half the teams being out of it by the All-Star break, and 95% of teams that are under .500 by June 1st missing the playoffs. It does seem that having such a small amount of teams making the playoffs diminishes the drama a long regular season could provide. While you certainly have to be a very good team to make the playoffs, having your team out of the race by June is certainly frustrating and can cause fan apathy (not to mention the economic impact, which I won't addresshere). However, one doesn't want to go the other way and be like the NBA and NHL where over half of the teams make the playoffs, making much of the regular season pointless as well. It does seem that the NFL probably has the best balance, as 12 of 32 teams make the playoffs (with the best 4 being rewarded with a bye round, something that probably isn't feasible in baseball). That seems like a ratio that baseball should shoot for, I think 10 out of 30 is a balance. So while I largely agree with the playoff expansion and am agnostic about switching a team to the other league, I don't like the inter-league plan. By having an inter-league series every week, I believe it gets rid of the alluring factor of inter-league play. I know there has been some criticism of inter-league play in the past few weeks, but I like inter-league play, and because I like inter-league play, I don't like this plan. Inter-league play is interesting because it wasn't something that had happened for almost all of baseball history, and now only happens for 2-3 weeks a season, and I think this adds to the interest to the early-mid parts of the season. It loses this if there is an inter-league series every weekend.

Bold Prediction: Bud Selig becomes his alter-ego, Mothra, fights Godzilla, and the Cubs move to Washington State to foster a rivalry with the Mariners.