Hitting Outside Pitches and 2007 Top Hitting Prospects

In a previous post, I looked at how some elite hitters were pitched when they first came up to the big leagues. I found that they were pitched low and away with heavy frequency. In this post, I will look at the 1st real season frequency of hitters in the Majors, and compare it to their TAV zones and their career frequency zones. In this post, all data is right-handed hitter normalized, all using Brooks Baseball's heat maps again. I want to test the thesis that hitters are pitched low and away more than average when they first come up, and then add another thesis. The secondary thesis is that one of the key differences between hitters that prove to be successful versus some that aren't is the ability to handle the low and away pitch in strike zone.

Here I think is a good example of a successful hitter showing that the thesis is correct as the hitter showed that they can hit the pitch on the outside part of the strike zone and low. Pitchers then have to go inside, or at least quit throwing in these zones as much, in the future. Here is Justin Upton's 2008 map, where we see that pitchers threw a lot of pitches on the mid outside part of the plate, and off the plate in general:

Now, let's fast foward to now, looking back at his career so far, in which he has accumulated 66 runs more than an average player (according to BR's RBAT):

Notice that Upton is a good hitter no matter where in the zone, but that he is actually better (when compared to other right-handed hitters) on low and outside pitches than inside pitches. Thus, Upton's frequency map now looks like this:

Pitchers mainly try to throw it to him low and away, but outside of the zone, as he gets about an average amount of pitches low and away in the strike zone. I think this argument gets stronger when we look at Andy Laroche. Laroche was a big bust, worth -45 runs with the bat in his career. Because the sample sizes for 2007 and 2008 are small in themselves, I included maps from both of those years below:

Up and Away was also a spot pitchers tried to challenge Laroche, but low and away was common as well. Laroche proved to be okay in his career on up and away balls, but low and away was his worst zone:

Therefore, pitchers continued to exploit the hole:

So in the rest of the post, I will look at the rest of the right-handed hitters on the top 100 prospects in 2007 according to Baseball America (I didn't include Brian Barton because he had just one real year in the Majors) and see if my thesis holds weight on a larger scale. To cut down on the amount of maps and amount of words you have to view (and I have to insert), I am only going to look at two zones for each hitter, the low and away part of the zone and away middle part of the zone, that is, the one in the strike zone that is on the bottom right and the one just above that, and I'll just use a numbers format.

Delmon Young: -15 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 67.94, 79.25

Career TAV: 115, 108

Career Frequency: 99.22, 104.76

Support Thesis: No

Evan Longoria: 128 rBAT

2008 Frequency: 106.94, 117.01

Career TAV: 119, 117

Career Frequency: 104.08, 101.05

Support Thesis: Yes

Brandon Wood: -55 rBAT

2008 Frequency: 98.23, 97.43

Career TAV: 53, 68

Career Frequency: 103.02, 96.39

Support Thesis: Mostly

Cameron Maybin: -23 rBAT

2009 Frequency: 98.93, 115.73

Career TAV: 95, 93

Career Frequency: 91.95, 102.86

Support Thesis: No

Chris Young: -33 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 122.36, 90.67

Career TAV: 103, 92

Career Frequency: 111.91, 103.95

Support Thesis: Not Really

Andrew McCutchen: 109 rBAT

2009 Frequency: 111.86, 96.08

Career TAV: 100, 100

Career Frequency: 104.52, 104.44

Support Thesis: Not Really

Troy Tulowitzski: 80 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 126.56, 76.5

Career TAV: 122, 119

Career Frequency: 100.99, 99.13

Support Thesis: Not Really

Billy Butler: 99 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 116.36, 86.92

Career TAV: 116, 98

Career Frequency: 89.25, 92.28

Support Thesis: Yes

Ryan Braun: 245 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 69.04, 101.08

Career TAV: 135, 132

Career Frequency: 88.06, 98.12

Support Thesis: No

Jose Tabata: -8 rBAT

2010 Frequency: 106.43, 94.97

Career TAV: 110, 93

Career Frequency: 99.08, 85.23

Support Thesis: No, in the sense that he isn't a good hitter. He did improve in that space and get pitched less there.

Adam Jones: 34 rBAT

2008 Frequency: 87.49, 85.68

Career TAV: 120, 103

Career Frequency: 95.51, 97.9

Support Thesis: Strangely, even though he proved to be really good in those zones (and a good hitter), he gets pitched there more now.

Hunter Pence: 92 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 103.08, 69.36

Career TAV: 113, 127

Career Frequency: 92.79, 109.99

Support Thesis: Same as Jones

Josh Fields: -17 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 77.45, 76.43

Career TAV: 106, 83

Career Frequency: 86.12, 91.29

Support Thesis: Not Really, he was never especially good there, but pitchers threw in on him his whole career.

Carlos Gomez: -46 rBAT

2008 Frequency:  102.77, 109.62

Career TAV: 94, 126

Career Frequency: 98.49, 110.56

Support Thesis:  Not really, despite showing he can hit there (and not being successful overall), he has continued to be pitched there.

Elvis Andrus: -45 rBAT

2009 Frequency: 89.62, 90.11

Career TAV: 81, 84

Career Frequency: 92.01, 93.75

Support Thesis: No, he struggles there, but isn't pitched there a lot.

Elijah Dukes: 7 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 107.23, 75.04

Career TAV: 139, 84

Career Frequency: 97.46, 105.99

Support Thesis: Mixed really.

Drew Stubbs: -30 rBAT

2010 Frequency: 83.32, 123.62

Career TAV: 114, 77

Career Frequency: 91.77, 115.26

Support Thesis: Sort of, though it is not definite.

Kurt Suzuki: -45 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 111.75, 84.11

Career TAV: 94, 91

Career Frequency: 101.22, 97.84

Support Thesis: Again, sort of.

Chris Iannetta: 2 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 142.65, 68.64

Career TAV: 108, 74

Career Frequency: 106.21, 97.6

Support Thesis: Same, sort of.

Brent Lillibridge: -35 rBAT

2008 Frequency: 117.38, 124.19

Career TAV: 68, 80

Career Frequency: 112.22, 100.62

Support Thesis: No. Even though he proved to be bad, and terrible in the zones, he was actually pitched less in the zones for his career.

So when the twenty hitters profiled, when they first came up, they had an average normalized frequency in the specified zones of 102.37 and 93.12. So they don't actually seem to be pitched low and away more than an average right-handed hitter when they first came up. For their careers, they have a 103.66 and 100.45 normalized frequency, meaning that on average, they were pitched more in that zone after their first year in the Major. If we break it down by successful and unsuccessful hitters (above average being successful), the unsuccessful hitters have a 98.92 and 100.23 frequency in those zones, while the successful hitters had a 97.65 and 100.72, no real difference between the two.

It would seem that my thesis is incorrect, or at least too simplistic. There doesn't seem to be any relationship between success and frequency in the low and away strike zone.

Scouting Reports on Tarleton and McMurry

On Saturday (February 4 2012) we saw the University of Tarleton play McMurry. The wind was blowing rather strong, but not overpowering. The umpire had a wide and pretty inconsistent zone affecting the outcome of at least 2-3 at-bats. Tarleton won the game 2-1 on a walk-off hit.

The most impressive player by far was relief pitcher Britt Robertshaw. He is a 6 foot 3 inches pitcher who previously pitched at Northwestern (of Louisiana) and Blinn College. He throws in the low nineties, reportedly getting all the way up to 96 MPH. He was by far the hardest thrower in the game, and he kept the ball low in warmups but put it all over the place during the game. He reportedly has 4 different pitches, but he only threw fastballs in the game (he really didn't need any other pitchers in the game). He struck out two (with a wild pitch) and got a weak groundball in 1 inning of play, stranding both inherited runners. At Blinn as a freshman, he really struggled with a 7.60 ERA, 6.75 K/9IP, and just one more strikeout than walks. At Northwestern, he was no better, with a WHIP of 2.76 and over twice as many walks as strikeouts in 12 games (11 of them relief appearances). He has had some injury problems, but passed the eyeball test with a good enough fastball, and if he can develop a breaking ball pitch, he may be a prospect.

Matt Buckmaster was the starting pitcher for Tarleton. I was without a radar gun, but he didn't throw very hard, and he had an okay pickoff move. He gave up 7 groundballs (with a GIDP), 2 flyballs, and 7 line drives. He struck out just 4 and walked 2, giving up 1 run.


The starting pitcher for McMurray was Spencer Smith, a 6 foot Junior from Amarillo. He was kind of big (Sidney Ponson-ish), but didn't throw that hard. He had an awful pickoff move, but he did keep the ball low. His breaking pitch was interesting, as it had good speed differential and solid movement, but he couldn't get hardly an swing and misses. He got 9 groundballs versus just 3 flyballs (including one to the warning track, about 360 feet), and one linedrive. They made a lot of contact off of him (just 2 strikeouts), but they didn't hit the ball very hard (excluding the near miss home run). He did hit two batters and walked 4, so control wasn't always there. In 2010, Smith really struggled with an ERA over 10 and a BAA of over .350. It seems he, at least what we saw, has improved since them. However, since he is a contact style pitcher, his control problems are very concerning. Pitchers who can't miss bats at this low of a level seldom stand a chance.

Other pitchers who pitched in the game included Jacob Detoni, a 6-2 Freshman who gave up 5 groundballs, 2 flyballs (one deep and one in the infield), and 1 linedrive. He was sort of deceptive with a soft breaking ball, it at least seemed like he was throwing harder overall. You would thought he would have struckout more, but he only struck out two, one on a very questionable call. He also had major control issues, with 2 wild pitches, a HBP, and a walk. Kenneth Stockton had really questionable control (wild pitch), not much of a pickoff move, and gave up 2 line drives, a hard grounder, and an infield popup (also struck out a batter).

Tarleton had a definite "small-ball" approach, and cost themselves 2 outs in the first inning. Evan Robinson was the starting shortstop (who had the walk off hit in the game), and had a failed sac bunt attempt, a 3 pitch slap groundout, a soft flyball double, a flyball single, and a five pitch groundball. He is just a freshman out of high school, but he is small, listed at 5-7, 155 LBS. Andrew Wolfe was a senior outfielder who hit at the bottom of the order. He tried, unsuccessfully, to bunt for a hit, grounded out, sac bunted (on the second strike), with a 5 pitch walk. He had decent speed, and is a little bigger, but not very large with virtually no power. Jared Musgrove is listed as a catcher but DHed and was pinch run for (by junior Ty Crump, who we didn't really get to see run, but had a .200 BA and .385 OBP in 10 ABs for Grayson County College in 2011). He had a 5 pitch at bat where he hit a hard grounder, was hit by a pitch, and fell for a breaking ball out of the zone during a 4 pitch at bat that ended in a ground out. He is a sophomore who is about standard size for Tarleton, at 5-10 175 LBS. Christopher Patton is a sophomore outfielder who had a 5 pitch foul ball out, a 2 pitch medium flyball out, a 3 pitch grounder, and a 4 pitch short swing liner (3.5 P/PA). Noah Ringenberger is a junior outfielder who also pitches (he didn't pitch in the game we saw, but had a 5.65 ERA in 14.1 innings at Northeastern State last year). He had a 4 pitch walk, a 1 pitch groundball double, a 6 pitch infield pop, and a 2 pitch groundball single (just 3.25 Pit/PA). He should have had a stolen base, but a HBP canceled it, and then he was later thrown out trying to steal third.
Ryan Small was the catcher, and he had a strong, but inaccurate arm. He did make a great stop behind the plate and seemed to know what he was doing back there. He was HBP, had a groundball chop, a one pitch groundout, and a 2 pitch line drive. He played Junior College at Midland, and is currently a junior. Austin Coble is a relatively small junior who can also pitch. He had a 4 pitch weak groundout, a 6 pitch strikeout looking (at a pitch that looked off the plate), a 7 pitch strikeout (where he chased a pitch out of the zone), and a 1 pitch ground out. Landon Thompson is a very similar player who can pitch as well, but is a freshman instead of a junior. He had a 1 pitch ground-out, a 1 pitch flyball, a 6 pitch strikeout looking, and a 6 pitch walk. Even though he chased one pitch out of the zone, he seemed to be a passive Sam Fuld type hitter. Thompson also leaves one wanting when it comes to speed, as he is rather slow.

Garrett Hardey was by far the most impressive hitter out of either side, and I would rank him the second best player on either team (behind Robertshaw). He is a 6-5 senior firstbasemen who is listed at 215 LBS, but looked very scrawny. At first he had a nice arm, and made a good pick. At the plate, he had a 4 pitch groundout, a 4 pitch strikeout, a 5 pitch walk, and a warning track shot that went about 360 feet. He seems to have power, but one would hope he will fill out more (even though he is a senior, which makes it more unlikely). He did struggle some with breaking pitches, so if pitch recognition is actually a problem, then it hurts any kind of value he has immensely. At West Texas JC, he batted .346, with a SLG of .586, with 21 walks versus 29 K's. He appeared in just 19 games last year with Tarleton and struggled.

McMurry was a horrible fielding team, the epitome of which was the 2nd baseman Marcellus Biggins, who had defensive struggles the entire game and eventually made an error. He had big size (he reminded us of Delmon Young with his body build, and furthered the comparison with his bad defense and a chasing of a high pitch). He had a 7 pitch ground-out, a 2 pitch ground-out, a 5 pitch line drive, and a 5 pitch strikeout where he chased a pitch way out of the zone (a 4.75 Pitch/PA in the game though). The third baseman, who we believe was Jacob Bermejo, fell down on a key play. With the bat Bermejo had 2 line drive outs and a 5 pitch infield hit. 1st Baseman Matt Thompson (who went to high school at Southlake Carroll), had an error as well. He had a 6 pitch medium depth flyball, just missed a double down the line (but it went foul), and a 3 pitch GIDP. The LF for McMurry also made a throwing error. There were positives on defense though, as SS Kory Moench showed off a good arm, and had a 5 pitch walk. He also hit a hard grounder, another 1 pitch ground-out, and a line drive out. Brad Baker was the catcher for McMurry, and he showed off a good arm and made a great diving grab on a foul ball. He did seem to have a major whole in his swing though, but had a 7 pitch at bat, a 5 pitch infield popup, and a 3 pitch medium flyball. The strangest thing about him was his size, as he is just 5-4 160 LBS.
Here is Baker (I would have taken more photos but my hands were way too cold to operate my phone):

Ruben Zendejas is a junior outfielder from Mission college. He too is very small, just 5' 5" 145 LBS. He had a 1 pitch groundball hit, a 6 pitch walk, and a sac bunt. He had decent speed, although neither team had really good speed for "small ball" type teams. Dylan DeLeon was a Junior outfielder who was a little bit bigger (5'10" 165 LBS). He had a 1 pitch groundball hit, a 3 pitch strikeout, and another 1 pitch at-bat. Jordan Brown was the last outfielder, and the senior was both bigger and more patient. He had a 7 pitch line drive, a 5 pitch strikeout, a 4 pitch line drive, and a 2 pitch hard grounder. Andrew Bell is a 6'2" junior who is also listed as an outfielder but DHed in the game. He has no speed and was caught stealing, and had a major hole in his swing. He had a 6 pitch line drive single, a 4 pitch strikeout, a 2 pitch groundball (for a hit), and an infield hit after 5 pitches.

Thanks to David Withers (Big D of football picking fame) for helping with this post.

Durham Bulls metric: Minor Leagues

 I have been extremely curious as to what the difference between AAA and the Majors is. So here, in a relatively small sample, I set out to find some answers. I will use current Tampa Bay Rays players (along with a couple former ones) difference between their Major League careers and their AAA Durham Bulls career. Since Durham plays in the International AAA league, I think it will be safe to (currently at least) use the metric for all International AAA league players.

Wade Davis: In Durham: -1.642 PE, In Majors: 2.275 PE and .77 WAR a season

Carl Crawford: In Durham: 1.69 PPG, 2.55 PAPP, .335 OBP and 1.07 Simple WAR. In Majors: 1.48 PPG, 2.5 PAPP, .333 OBP, and 2.74 WAR a season.

Delmon Young: In Durham: 1.54 PPG, 2.66 PAPP, .325 OBP, and .423 Simple WAR . In Majors: 1.17 PPG, 2.93 PAPP, .321, and -.1 WAR.

Jeremy Hellickson: In Durham: -4.86 PE, In Majors: .32 PE, and 4.2 WAR in 2011 (his only full season)

J.P. Howell: In Durham: -3.435 PE, In Majors: -.021 PE, and .45 WAR a season

Jake McGee: In Durham:  -6.713 PE, In Majors: -.986 PE, and .01 WAR a season

Jeff Niemann: In Durham: -.785 PE, In Majors: 1.3 PE, and 1.1 WAR a season

David Price: In Durham: -.699 PE, In Majors: -1.3 PE, and 3.33 WAR a season

James Shields: In Durham: -2.722 PE, In Majors: .24 PE, and 2.95 WAR a season

Andy Sonnanstine: In Durham: 1.182 PE, In Majors: 3.77 PE, and -.08 WAR a season

John Jaso: In Durham: .91 PPG, 2.74 PAPP, .356 OBP, and 1.81 Simple WAR. In Majors: .84 PPG, 2.83 PAPP, .340 OBP, 1.25 WAR a season

Reid Brignac: In Durham: 1.08 PPG, 3.03 PAPP, .316 OBP, and -.56 Simple WAR. In Majors: .63 PPG, 3.54 PAPP, .272 OBP, -.05 WAR a season

Dan Johnson: In Durham: 1.65 PPG, 2.19 PAPP, .412 OBP and 5.88 Simple WAR. In Majors: 1.01 PPG, 2.74 PAPP, .334 OBP, .58 WAR a season.

Elliot Johnson: In Durham: 1.23 PPG, 2.75 PAPP, .325 OBP, and .09 Simple WAR. In Majors: .61 PPG, 4 PAPP, .257 OBP, .1 WAR

Ben Zobrist: In Durham: 1.38 PPG, 2.24 PAPP, .416 OBP, and 5.14 Simple WAR. In Majors: 1.27 PPG, 2.56 PAPP, .348 OBP, 2.28 WAR a season.

Desmond Jennings: In Durham: 1.53 PPG, 2.3 PAPP, .375 OBP, and 3.4 Simple WAR. In Majors: 1.35 PPG, 2.488 PAPP, .351 OBP, 2.2 WAR

Matt Joyce: In Durham: 1.49 PPG, 2.19 PAPP, .404 OBP, and 5.11 Simple WAR. In Majors: 1.11 PPG, 2.58 PAPP, .345 OBP, and 1.75 a season

Justin Ruggiano: In Durham: 1.63 PPG, 2.36 PAPP, .362 OBP, and 2.53 Simple WAR. In Majors: .55 PPG, 3.39 PAPP, .262 OBP, and -.2 WAR

B.J. Upton: In Durham: 1.69 PPG, 2.21 PAPP, .391 OBP, and 4.48 Simple WAR. In Majors: 1.37 PPG, 2.48 PAPP, .342 OBP, and 2.41 WAR a season.

Pitchers: In Durham:  -2.46 PE Average. In Majors: .7 PE Average, 1.59 WAR a season. Average pitcher going from Durham (or International League in AAA) would add 2.53 to their PE. WAR is not particularly helpful because the correlation between PE and WAR is skewed, because both PE (the lower the better) and WAR (the higher is better) are lower for pitchers.

Hitters: In Durham: 1.44 PPG average, 2.34 PAPP average, .365 OBP average, and 2.67 Simple WAR average. In Majors: 1.04 PPG average, 2.91 PAPP average, .319 OBP average, 1.18 WAR average. So on average, a player loses 1.49 from there simple WAR to their Major League WAR, lose .046 from their OBP, add .57 to their PAPP, and lose .40 from their PPG. So, for now at least, this is how we judge players in the International AAA league.

Free Agent Watch: Andrew Brown

The St. Louis Cardinals designated Andrew Brown for assignment this week. He could still be outrighted to the minors, but could be claimed by another team and a deal could be made. In the minors, he has a 2.54 PAP, and a 1.38 PPG with a .857 OPS and .365 OBP. These numbers are not all that impressive. However, rather strangely, he has been better in AAA with a 1.53 PPG, 2.4 PAPP, .833 OPS, and .382 OBP. He played sparingly in the Majors this year, but only in 11 games with 22 plate appearances, so statistical analysis would be useless. He appears to have been a find, as he was picked in the 18th round of the 2007 draft. He is already 27, so it is hard to imagine he will improve much more (if at all), and should be in his prime. He has the most experience at 1st (238 games), but has also played corner outfield and 3rd. He is the best at LF as far as fielding percentage (.988) with a 1.42 Range Factor. The Major League average for LF was .982 in 2011 and Delmon Young, a pretty bad fielder, has a 1.88 Range Factor at LF. So it seems that Brown is about an average LF. Brown's worst position is 3rd (.941), and it seems doubtful that a MLB team would want to use him there. His best Range Factor is actually at first though, with a 8.40. The League average was 9.31 though, so it is difficult to see Brown having a big future there. It is always hard to tell how numbers will translate from AAA to the Majors, but the OBP certainly gives hope. The AAA numbers overall are very encouraging. It is hard to put just a whole lot of value on him though, unless a team with a low payroll really needs a 4th or 5th outfielder and is willing to give up a prospect with a relatively high ceiling but still being far away. My guess is that no one will claim him and he will stay with the Cardinals.