Times to First: Part 6

1. Tony Abreu (Royals): 4.27

2. Jeff Keppinger (Rays): 4.23

3. Alex Rodriguez (Yankees) 4.49

4. Chris Stewart (Yankees): 4.21

5. Matt Joyce (Rays): 4.28

6. Chris Dickerson (Yankees): 4.07

7. Jose Tabata (Pirates): 4.25

8. Carlos Quentin (Padres): 4.64

9. Shane Victorino (Dodgers): 4.27 (3.93 on a bunt)

10. Cameron Maybin (Padres): 4.02

11. Matt Kemp (Dodgers): 4.24

12. Jose Iglesias (Red Sox): 4.09

13. A.J. Ellis (Dodgers): 4.57

14. Mark Kotsay (Padres): 4.40

15. Josh Willingham (Twins): 4.32

16. Evereth Cabrera (Padres): 3.80 (on a bunt)

17. Jay Bruce (Reds): 4.43

18. Desmond Jennings (Rays): 3.80 (on a bunt)

19. Luke Scott (Rays): 4.38

20. Elliot Johnson (Rays): 3.78 (on a bunt)

Durham Bulls metric: Minor Leagues

 I have been extremely curious as to what the difference between AAA and the Majors is. So here, in a relatively small sample, I set out to find some answers. I will use current Tampa Bay Rays players (along with a couple former ones) difference between their Major League careers and their AAA Durham Bulls career. Since Durham plays in the International AAA league, I think it will be safe to (currently at least) use the metric for all International AAA league players.

Wade Davis: In Durham: -1.642 PE, In Majors: 2.275 PE and .77 WAR a season

Carl Crawford: In Durham: 1.69 PPG, 2.55 PAPP, .335 OBP and 1.07 Simple WAR. In Majors: 1.48 PPG, 2.5 PAPP, .333 OBP, and 2.74 WAR a season.

Delmon Young: In Durham: 1.54 PPG, 2.66 PAPP, .325 OBP, and .423 Simple WAR . In Majors: 1.17 PPG, 2.93 PAPP, .321, and -.1 WAR.

Jeremy Hellickson: In Durham: -4.86 PE, In Majors: .32 PE, and 4.2 WAR in 2011 (his only full season)

J.P. Howell: In Durham: -3.435 PE, In Majors: -.021 PE, and .45 WAR a season

Jake McGee: In Durham:  -6.713 PE, In Majors: -.986 PE, and .01 WAR a season

Jeff Niemann: In Durham: -.785 PE, In Majors: 1.3 PE, and 1.1 WAR a season

David Price: In Durham: -.699 PE, In Majors: -1.3 PE, and 3.33 WAR a season

James Shields: In Durham: -2.722 PE, In Majors: .24 PE, and 2.95 WAR a season

Andy Sonnanstine: In Durham: 1.182 PE, In Majors: 3.77 PE, and -.08 WAR a season

John Jaso: In Durham: .91 PPG, 2.74 PAPP, .356 OBP, and 1.81 Simple WAR. In Majors: .84 PPG, 2.83 PAPP, .340 OBP, 1.25 WAR a season

Reid Brignac: In Durham: 1.08 PPG, 3.03 PAPP, .316 OBP, and -.56 Simple WAR. In Majors: .63 PPG, 3.54 PAPP, .272 OBP, -.05 WAR a season

Dan Johnson: In Durham: 1.65 PPG, 2.19 PAPP, .412 OBP and 5.88 Simple WAR. In Majors: 1.01 PPG, 2.74 PAPP, .334 OBP, .58 WAR a season.

Elliot Johnson: In Durham: 1.23 PPG, 2.75 PAPP, .325 OBP, and .09 Simple WAR. In Majors: .61 PPG, 4 PAPP, .257 OBP, .1 WAR

Ben Zobrist: In Durham: 1.38 PPG, 2.24 PAPP, .416 OBP, and 5.14 Simple WAR. In Majors: 1.27 PPG, 2.56 PAPP, .348 OBP, 2.28 WAR a season.

Desmond Jennings: In Durham: 1.53 PPG, 2.3 PAPP, .375 OBP, and 3.4 Simple WAR. In Majors: 1.35 PPG, 2.488 PAPP, .351 OBP, 2.2 WAR

Matt Joyce: In Durham: 1.49 PPG, 2.19 PAPP, .404 OBP, and 5.11 Simple WAR. In Majors: 1.11 PPG, 2.58 PAPP, .345 OBP, and 1.75 a season

Justin Ruggiano: In Durham: 1.63 PPG, 2.36 PAPP, .362 OBP, and 2.53 Simple WAR. In Majors: .55 PPG, 3.39 PAPP, .262 OBP, and -.2 WAR

B.J. Upton: In Durham: 1.69 PPG, 2.21 PAPP, .391 OBP, and 4.48 Simple WAR. In Majors: 1.37 PPG, 2.48 PAPP, .342 OBP, and 2.41 WAR a season.

Pitchers: In Durham:  -2.46 PE Average. In Majors: .7 PE Average, 1.59 WAR a season. Average pitcher going from Durham (or International League in AAA) would add 2.53 to their PE. WAR is not particularly helpful because the correlation between PE and WAR is skewed, because both PE (the lower the better) and WAR (the higher is better) are lower for pitchers.

Hitters: In Durham: 1.44 PPG average, 2.34 PAPP average, .365 OBP average, and 2.67 Simple WAR average. In Majors: 1.04 PPG average, 2.91 PAPP average, .319 OBP average, 1.18 WAR average. So on average, a player loses 1.49 from there simple WAR to their Major League WAR, lose .046 from their OBP, add .57 to their PAPP, and lose .40 from their PPG. So, for now at least, this is how we judge players in the International AAA league.

Series Recap: Rangers versus Rays

With their 4-3 win today at the Trop, the Rangers beat the Rays in the ALDS for the second straight year (this year in 3 games to 1, last year was 3 games to 2). I had picked the Rangers to win the AL Pennant at the start of playoff previews, but end up selecting the Rays to win the series after seeing the statistics (the Rangers had a better lineup and bullpen, while the Rays had better starters and fielding). I had predicted that this would be a close series, and even though it didn't go 5 games, it was a close series. The Rays weaker bullpen certainly hurt them, especially in games 2 and 3. It should be that statistics provide percentages. It was unlikely that James Shields would have very little command in his start, but it happened. Statistics are best with big samples, one start is not a big sample. Shields is going to have .185 WAR a start, but that doesn't mean he will give .185 WAR every start. It is an average. Most starts by Shields are going to be real good. The one he had in the series was not. Statistics also said Lewis usually won't outduel Price, and Harrison usually won't outduel Hellickson, but it happened. The unlikely happened. If the same pitching match-ups happen 5 or so times, the Rays will win (at least those match-ups) more often than they won't. Perhaps the biggest difference between the two clubs is that the Rangers have the resources to sign already studs like Adrian Beltre, while the Rays do not. Beltre had 3 homers in game 4 and played solid defense the whole series. He was probably the MVP for the Rangers' (perhaps Napoli), while Desmond Jennings was probably the MVP for the Rays. Adrian Beltre is making $14 million this year, while Jennings is making league minimum.

So far in the 2011 playoffs:

Initial picks: 1-0

Statistics picks: 0-1

Record of team with bigger salary: 1-0