Monday, October 31, 2011

Yankees pitching prospect Dellin Betances

Dellin Betances was named the AA starter of the year for the Yankees in 2011. In AA Trenton, he had a -2.87 PE (an adjusted -2.59 when FIP replaces ERA). He did have a BABIP that was a bit low (.288), but even when changed to average at .300, his BAA would still only be .226. Clearly a dominant AA season. He broke into the big leagues for the first time at the end of the season, but only appeared in two games, clearly too small of a sample size to be meaningful. However, he did make 4 starts in AAA, and it may be helpful to look at those numbers. Despite a high ERA, he was very good, putting up a -2.9 PE. His FIP also suggested that his 5.14 Earned Run Average was not in fact earned, as his FIP was at 4.15, a not great but a decent number. He is a strikeout machine, striking out 11.57 per 9 innings in AAA, and 9.83 per 9 innings in AA. Although he doesn't give up many homers, his walks are concerning, walking 4.7 per 9 innings in AA and 6.43 per 9 innings in AA. This makes his K/BB ratio, despite the high strikeout totals, a mediocre 2.09 in AA and 1.8 in AAA. As we saw with the Rangers in the world series (who set a record for most walks given up in the postseason), giving up so many baserunners (especially base runners that didn't have to put the ball in play) ends up biting you. He will have to clean this up before he can become a big league pitcher. In different levels of play in 2010, he showed that he could do this. The Yankees are of course good because of their ability and willingness to spend tons of money, but they also draft pretty well, and this is what separates them from other big leagues clubs that have money but not success.

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