Sunday, October 23, 2011

Money not very well spent: Bronson Arroyo

Bronson Arroyo has a 14.7 WAR in his time in Cincinnati, but had a -.5 WAR in 2011, and he made 7.67 million. Arroyo made slightly over 10 million in 09 (2.2 WAR), and more than 11 million in 2010 (2.1 WAR). This lead to the terrible WASPS of 5238 in 2010, and 4545 in 2009 (19167 WASP in 2011). Scheduled to make 12 million in 2012, he would need a 4 WAR to match the Halladay Standard. He has only matched that in 2006 (5.8 WAR). In 2006, he threw a career high 240 innings (led the league), which makes one wonder if there is some wear and tear on his arm. In his career, he has a pretty unimpressive PE of 2.336, but his 2011 PE was terrible at 4.397. In his career, his BABIP is .285, under the league average of .298. However, you cannot blame the terrible 2011 season on luck, as his BABIP was just .281. In 2010 (a mediocre year, and a terrible year considering his contract) he had a BABIP of just .241. He gave up a career high in Total Bases in 2011, and a atrocious 2.1 HR/9IP (he has a 1.2 HR/9IP in his career). His career TR is very unimpressive at 8.13, and in 2011 it was a terrible 6.72. As bad as his 2011 ERA was (5.07), his FIP was worse (5.71), career worst. According to those metrics, it is hard to predict that Arroyo will really be any better. He is a high paid flyball pitcher who struggles with the longball. The Reds are just stuck in a real bad spot right now, and there isn't much they can do about it. Certainly in hindsight, it was a terrible idea to give him so much money. I am not real sure how the Reds didn't see this coming though, his strikeout, flyball, and BABIP metrics have stayed all about the same. Did they not see that Arroyo was a pitcher who didn't strikeout a bunch of batters and gave up too many homers? Some say he had a really good 2010 season, but the Reds didn't even give him the game 1 start in the playoffs, so there was belief in the organization that he isn't that good. In 06, his best year, his ERA was 3.29, but his FIP was 4.15. Clearly it was fluky. Too bad for the Reds that they didn't get the memo.

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