Saturday, October 15, 2011

Free Agent Watch: C.C. Sabathia

So the rumor mill is already swirling. Sabathia has an opt-out in his contract at the end of the season, and now all the rumors seem to point to him opting out. There is also the new rumor that the Rangers are willing to offer tons of money to Sabathia. So how much is CC worth? How much more than free-agent-to-be C.J. Wilson is he worth? In 2011, Sabathia registered a 6.9 WAR while making $24,285,714. This is above the Halladay Standard of WASP at 3520. The whole point of the opt-out is that he will make even more money. One can't expect him to be any better either, 2011 was his best year according to WAR. Over the past 3 years, he has averaged a WAR of 5.4, worth 16.2 million according to the metric above. Wilson on the other hand, registered a 5 WAR in 2011, worth 15 million dollars. He may actually get around 15 million a year, while there is no chance Sabathia will get around 16.2 million. The Texas Rangers' 2011 payroll was 92 million, a 24 million dollar Sabathia would be 1/3.83th of the teams payroll. Even if he duplicates his career year of 2011, he would only produce 1/6.23th of the wins necessary for 95 wins. If C.J. Wilson is resigned by the Rangers at $15 million, and reproduces his 5 WAR, he would be 1/6.13th of the team's salary, and 1/8.632th of the wins necessary for 95 wins. It turns out that neither are good deals for the Texas Rangers. The Rangers front office has positioned themselves and promised to be big spenders, but Ranger fans of the mid-2000s remember that that plan didn't work so well.

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