Monday, October 10, 2011

Too early to call a bust?: Josh Vitters

Josh Vitters has started off hot in the Arizona Fall League, hitting 2 homers and driving in 8 in only 5 games. He is hitting .381, but he hasn't walked yet, and this seems to be a symptom of his career.  Vitters was a first round pick in 07. He has a career .319 OBP in minors. His OPS is just 758, and his PPG is less than impressive at 1.18. Because he isn't a guy who walks, his PAPP is worse, at 3.03.  He isn't any good out in the field either, with a fielding percentage of only .923. He is really terrible at 3rd base. At a .970 fielding percentage, Yuni Betancourt has a career -1.7 WAR on defense from 2005-2011. Vitters is better at first base with a .983. However, Mitch Moreland of the Texas Rangers is at .995 at first and still has a negative defensive WAR. His range factor is only 2.23 at third. At first, it is better at 7.44, but that is still not good. Even Ryan Howard, considered a horrible first-baseman, has a range factor of 9.41, and Prince Fielder has a 8.99.
He is never been past AAA. Taken 3rd overall in that draft, he has seen the first and second pick, David Price and Mike Moustakas, already have success in the big leagues. Some guys taken right after him, Matt Weiters, Matt LaPorta, and Ross Detwiler have also had success in the Majors. It doesn't like Vitters is ready to take the next step either, as his OBP in AA is .313. It is not like he can make up for it with great power either, with just one bomb every 35.4 PA. People wonder why the Cubs aren't good, it is because they don't draft well. It is hard to build a team, even with their payroll, if you don't draft well.

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