Monday, October 24, 2011

Free Agent Watch: Roy Oswalt

"The Big 4" may be coming to an end (with no championships) as the Phillies have declined the option on Roy Oswalt's contract. In 11 career seasons, Oswalt has a 46.3 WAR, which is a 4.21 average, which is worth 12.6 million a year according to the Halladay Standard. 2011 was disappointing though, with a 1.7 WAR, worth just 5.1 million. In 2010 he had a 5.1 WAR, worth 15.3. This is a big range, and isn't all that helpful. In 2011, in just 139 innings, he had a TR of 10.85, nothing to sneeze at. The PE wasn't ideal at 1.76. In his career, he has a TR of 12.29, and a PE of -.46. Why the dropoff? He struck out less people in 2011, was unhealthy, and seemed to be slightly unlucky at a  .316 BABIP (his FIP was lower than his ERA though). In fact, Fangraphs has him at a 2.5 WAR, if he threw 200 innings at the same WAR ratio, he would have had a 3.6 WAR (worth 10.8 million), and a Baseball Reference WAR of 2.45 (worth 7.35 million). It depends on which WAR you trust. For the Phillies, it doesn't make a lot of sense to resign him. Especially because of the emergence of Vance Worley, who had a -1.49 PE, 2.8 WAR, and 11.05 TR in 2011. With that said, if you think he can stay healthy, Oswalt is a legitimate top of the rotation pitcher, and it would probably be unwise too say he is no longer one because of one year.

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