Thursday, October 20, 2011

Free Agent Watch: Joel Zumaya

Despite injury in 2011, Joel Zumaya had a .8 WAR. He had a 3.4 WAR in 2006, and earned a 4.4 WAR in 5 seasons. This is an .88 WAR average, worth 2.64 million a year.  He actually made 925,000 in 2011. As a reliever, he earned -1.98 PE in 2011, and a -2.48 for his career. He also had a really nice TR of 11.78 in 2011. This is a really good reliever, however, one has to be very careful not to overpay relievers, as Zumaya's career average WAR would only be 1/49th of what is necessary (according to WAR) to make the playoffs. If a team has a 100 million dollar payroll (about the median of Major League payrolls), he is worth about 2 million dollars, not much lower than his worth according to the Halladay Standard. One thing that should concern potential suitors is that his career FIP is almost a full run over his ERA. That certainly has all the makings of a reliever who may turn out to be a disappointment. It is also unlikely he will repeat his 2006 (his first year) success, as his BABIP that year was a pretty unrealistic .246. The 4.94 ERA, 1.45 HR/9 2010 season also looms large. It is also unrealistic to expect that Zumaya will only give up home runs on only 2% of his flyballs. So one wonders if Zumaya will be a trap. I wouldn't give him more than 2 million dollars, and relievers have really been overvalued the past couple of years, so while he has been good, he can certainly be a trap for a big market team. 

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