Thursday, October 13, 2011

That Granderson Trade, also Austin Jackson

In the Postseason, the Curtis Granderson trade before the beginning of 2010 Granderson went to the Yankees; Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy went to the Diamondbacks; and Daniel Schlereth, Max Scherzer, Austin Jackson and Phil Coke went to the Tigers.
Granderson: 8 WAR, 1718.8 WASP.
Edwin Jackson -.1 WAR, 4830 WASP
The Arizona Diamondbacks then flipped  Edwin Jackson to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for right-hander Dan Hudson and left-hander David Holmberg in the middle of 2010.
David Holmberg: Minors: 3.44 ERA in A and A+ in 2011
Daniel Hudson: 5.8 WAR, 108 WASP
Ian Kennedy: 7.7 WAR, 112 WASP
13.4 WAR 1683 WASP average
Austin Jackson: 5.2 WAR, 162 WASP
Daniel Schlereth: 1 WAR, 836 WASP
Max Scherzer: 5.6 WAR, 375 WASP
Phil Coke: .9 WAR, 961 WAR
12.7 WAR, 584 WASP average

As great as Granderson has been, the Yankees are the clear losers in the trade. The Diamondbacks have gotten the most production (thanks a lot to Hudson who they got for Jackson) and could get more if Holmberg makes it to the big leagues. The Tigers have been the most efficient with money spent on the players (thanks mainly to Edwin Jackson's underperfoming for the Diamondbacks).

Now to Austin Jackson, the WAR and WASP are above, and they are solid numbers. However, their has been a slight sophomore slump. He is also a frustrating player to watch, being in the top of the order and striking out as much as he does (181 in 2011). What is not mentioned is how much he has approved on defense (from a -.7 WAR in 2010, to a .7 WAR in 2011). There has been an offensive slide though (3.5 O-WAR in 2010, 1.7 in 2011). For a leadoff hitter, he doesn't get on base near enough (.345 OBP in 2010, .317 in 2011). His OPS dropped from .745 to .690 in 2011, and had less total bases and grounded into twice as many double plays. He hit more home runs and more RBIs, but was more productive in 2010 with a 1.16 PPG versus a 1.09 PPG in 2011. However, some metrics scream better, as his secondary average and isolated slugging both improved. He also had quite a bit of luck on his side last year as well, with a BABIP of .396, and a .340 in 2010 (this would explain most of the difference in OBP). He really went from a player who had a winning offensive percentage (about 55%) to a losing offensive winning percentage (45%). Runs Created metrics also had a big drop for his 2011 season. When looking at the percentages though, things look much brighter. He walked more, homered more, and more of his hits were extra base hits. These are all good signs going into 2012, and may point to things evening out. He sees about 4 pitches per plate appearance, and it would seem that the walks will keep going up, there isn't any sign he will strike out less, but he may hit for a little bit better power, and as his defense is improving, he will be very valuable (especially at his current salary, he doesn't reach arbitration until 2013 and free agency until 2016) for the Tigers going forward.

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