Saturday, October 29, 2011

Free Agent Watch: Cody Ross

Cody Ross registered just a 1 WAR in his overhyped 2010 season. He played better with a 1.6 WAR in 2011 (made 6.3 million, giving him a 3938 WASP, above the Halladay Standard). A 1.2 WAR in 09 gives him a 1.27 WAR average in the past 3 years, worth 3.8 million dollars. Ross has a very average career OBP of .323.  He actually had a career high in walks in 2011 (10.6%, just 7.3% in his career). .779 OPS for his career (.730 in 2011), 1.03 PPG in 2011 (1.09 PPG in his career), 2.83 PAPP in 2011, and 2.82 PAPP in his career. He is a flyball hitter, and an above average home run hitter, but has an ISO of just .195 (.165 in 2011, not really power hitting type). His career Secondary Average is .284 (.294 in 2011). He does have a career Offensive winning percentage of over 50%, and boasts an above average career PPS of 93.35, in 2011 it was even better at 95.64 (one would think it had to do mainly with his more walks). Had a .324 BABIP in 2010 (destroying any illusion that 2010 was some kind of breakout year), .279 in 2011, and .301 in his career. If he would have gotten his career BABIP in 2011, his OBP would have been .351 instead of .325, a considerable difference. This is how BABIP many times creates "inefficiencies". However, the career high in walks (going from someone who walked less than average to someone who walked more than average) is a little puzzling. Can someone change their hitting philosophy midway through their career (Ross at age 30)? Can someone go from impatient to patient? Or should we go ahead and assume that it is an outlier season, and have him marked down as walking 7.3% of the time. If we plug in a 7.3% walk ratio for Ross in 2011, his OBP falls to .312 (keeping the BABIP the same). This is the risk that one would be taking with Ross. He has that above average PPS cited earlier that one could fall back on, but is he worth 5 or 6 million dollars? No, probably not. However, the 3.8 million dollars WASP suggests seems reasonable.

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