Matt Treanor: the Newest Dodger

The Dodgers have signed catcher Matt Treanor to a 1 year 1 million dollar deal. Treanor had a .2 WAR in 2011, and a WAR average over the past 3 years of -.07. So he has actually been playing under replacement baseball over the past 3 years. Over 8 years, he has posted a grand total of .2 WAR. Perhaps when thinking about WAR, Matt Treanor should be envisioned as the "replacement player". He is not good behind the plate, with a -.8 D-WAR. In his offensive career, Treanor has a .315 OBP, OPS + of 67, and O4S of 1.567. These are terrible numbers, and his more basic metrics are no better, as his PAPP is 3.31 and his PPG is .57. His Secondary Average is .195 (under .200 is considered very poor), his ISO just .082, explaining why his BABIP is just .272, he doesn't hit the ball hard. He has just a 3.4 Runs Created per Game metric, and an Offensive Winning percentage of .346. The only good thing you can say about him is that he is an above average walker and he sees 3.94 pitches per plate appearance. His PPS is above average at 93.26, but this one metric is not good enough to cancel out all the other really bad things about Treanor. Usually a 1 year 1 million dollar deal on a veteran is a great deal, but not this time.

The Giants New Lineup

After the Melky Cabrera-Jonathan Sanchez trade (I wrote a post just a couple days ago saying it would make sense for the Giants to trade Sanchez), MLB Network projects this to be the Giants lineup in 2012:
 Melky Cabrera 2.9 2011 WAR, .331 Career OBP, .729 Career OPS
Freddy Sanchez 1.1 2011 WAR, .335 Career OBP, .748 Career OPS
Pablo Sandoval 6.1 2011 WAR, .356 Career OBP, .857 Career OPS
Buster Posey 1.5 2011 WAR, .353 Career OBP, .815 Career OPS
Aubrey Huff -.9 2011 WAR, .342 Career OBP, .808 Career OPS
Brandon Belt -.3 2011 WAR, .306 Career OBP, .718 Career OPS
Jeff Keppinger .6 2011 WAR, .332 Career OBP, .720 Career OPS
Nate Schierholtz 1.6 2011 WAR, .318 Career OBP, .727 Career OPS

League Average in 2011: .318 OBP, .711 OPS.
Giants: Career Averages of .334 OBP, .765 OPS. 2011 Average 1.575 WAR Average, 12.6 overall.

This means that while the Giants' lineup has better than average OBP and OPS, their 2011 WAR is only 1/3.43 of the WAR needed to win 95 games. This could suggest a couple of things, both of which I think are partly true. 1. Players like Aubrey Huff were once good hitters, but are clearly washed up and 2. Players like Sanchez and Posey were injured and didn't put up a good WAR, despite putting up good OBP and OPS. Another pretty obvious reason the WAR doesn't match up would be bad defense, which is certainly the case for guys like Huff and Belt.

Should the Giants trade Jonathan Sanchez?

Jonathan Sanchez made 4.8 million in 2011, and arbitration will decide how much he will make in 2012. In 2011, he had a WAR of just .1 in 101 innings. Over the past 3 years, Sanchez has a 1.63 WAR average, worth 4.89 million according to the Halladay Standard. However, according to the Giants payroll (8th in the MLB), Sanchez's production would be worth about 4.46 million. According to this metric, Sanchez will certainly be overpaid in 2012. So it certainly seems that he would be worth trading away. In his career, Sanchez has a great -1.44 PE (-1.4 Adjusted PE), but a very pedestrian 8.17 TR. When PE and TR disagree on the quality of a pitcher, I am more inclined to agree with TR because it is more encompassing, not to mention that WAR sides more with TR. He is a very good strikeout pitcher, which is why his PE is so good, but he basically cancels it out with all the free passes he gives up. His best year in 2010 was colored by a very low BABIP .252 and a FIP of almost a full run over his ERA. His career FIP is very unimpressive and very average at 4.30. He doesn't give up many home runs (about .9 per 9 innings), and gives up as many groundballs and flyballs. He just isn't very impressive and isn't worth the salary he will get in 2012 (and will be a free agent after the season) so it makes a lot of sense for the Giants to see what they can get for him.

Free Agent Watch: Cody Ross

Cody Ross registered just a 1 WAR in his overhyped 2010 season. He played better with a 1.6 WAR in 2011 (made 6.3 million, giving him a 3938 WASP, above the Halladay Standard). A 1.2 WAR in 09 gives him a 1.27 WAR average in the past 3 years, worth 3.8 million dollars. Ross has a very average career OBP of .323.  He actually had a career high in walks in 2011 (10.6%, just 7.3% in his career). .779 OPS for his career (.730 in 2011), 1.03 PPG in 2011 (1.09 PPG in his career), 2.83 PAPP in 2011, and 2.82 PAPP in his career. He is a flyball hitter, and an above average home run hitter, but has an ISO of just .195 (.165 in 2011, not really power hitting type). His career Secondary Average is .284 (.294 in 2011). He does have a career Offensive winning percentage of over 50%, and boasts an above average career PPS of 93.35, in 2011 it was even better at 95.64 (one would think it had to do mainly with his more walks). Had a .324 BABIP in 2010 (destroying any illusion that 2010 was some kind of breakout year), .279 in 2011, and .301 in his career. If he would have gotten his career BABIP in 2011, his OBP would have been .351 instead of .325, a considerable difference. This is how BABIP many times creates "inefficiencies". However, the career high in walks (going from someone who walked less than average to someone who walked more than average) is a little puzzling. Can someone change their hitting philosophy midway through their career (Ross at age 30)? Can someone go from impatient to patient? Or should we go ahead and assume that it is an outlier season, and have him marked down as walking 7.3% of the time. If we plug in a 7.3% walk ratio for Ross in 2011, his OBP falls to .312 (keeping the BABIP the same). This is the risk that one would be taking with Ross. He has that above average PPS cited earlier that one could fall back on, but is he worth 5 or 6 million dollars? No, probably not. However, the 3.8 million dollars WASP suggests seems reasonable.

Beware of the World Series MVP, and the Reds SS problems.

Edgar Renteria is basically became the Reds shortstop because of one pitch and one swing. Don't get me wrong, it was a beautiful swing at the most important time possible, as Renteria's 3 run shot off Cliff Lee in the World Series to give the Giants the lead for good in game 5 sealed the deal and Lincecum shut the Rangers down. The Reds, because the Giants wouldn't sign him (even though he was the MVP of the World Series), gave him $2.1 million to join the club for the year. I thought it was a bad deal (more on how terrible the deal actually is) to start with, but its really hard to be as bad of a deal as the Giants were in with him. In 2 years in San Francisco, he made $18 million, had an OPS below 700, hit a grand total of 8 homers, 70 rbis, and posted a WAR of just .4. This gave him a horrifying WASP of 45000 in his time as a Giant. How has he been this year? A replacement player. Exactly a 0 WAR. He has a WASP of 4200, a lot better than his one as a Giant, but still not good at all. The even bigger problem the Reds have faced this year? They have no replacement. Their other shortstop Paul Janish has appeared in 105 games, but he is barely over the Mendoza line, an OBP of .251, a OPS of .502, all for a total of a -.4 WAR (he is only in the majors because he can field at a 1.1 WAR, because his offense is at -1.5). The only good news is that he is making only $438,000, giving him a WASP (see previous posts on how to calculate WASP) of 1051 (its a very nice WASP, because they are paying him near league minimum they shouldn't expect anything from him is what the statistic assumes). However, he is already 28, and its hard to imagine he will improve anymore, meaning that the Reds really really need help at shortstop.

Looking back at the Josh Hamilton-Edinson Volquez Trade

Its always fun to look back at old trades and see which team "won" the trade. Just on the surface of it, it appears that the Rangers won this trade with the Reds. After the 07 season, the Rangers sent Edinson Volquez and Danny Herrera to the Reds for Josh Hamilton. Herrera (currently a member of the Mets, after beginning the season with the Brewers) spent 3 years with Cincinnati and recorded an even 0 WAR (Wins above Replacement), meaning he was no more than a replacement player or an average backup player. He made about $1,212,500 in salary in his time as a Red, making his WASP (War and Salary Per) 2,425. Volquez (still a member of the Reds, but has been up and down between AAA and the Majors this year, after being the Game 1 starter in the ALDS last year) has posted a 4.3 WAR in his 4 seasons as a Red (for comparison, Cliff Lee has a 6.1 just this year, and Verlander has a 7.7 this year, and WAR is not an average, it can and should be added up). In that time, he has made $2,897,500 in salary. This gives him a WASP (WASP works like an average, unlike WAR) of about 673 overall, which is actually very nice (his WASP for this year is 5346 though). Since Josh Hamilton has been a Ranger, he has made $11,451,830, much more than Volquez and Herrera combined. However, he has compiled a 16.8 WAR (along with an AL MVP and MVP of the ALCS), giving him a WASP of 681 overall (almost the exact same as Volquez). So it appears with both WAR and WASP (mainly because of Herrera's failure) the Rangers won this trade.