I watched the Pensacola Blue Wahoos, the Reds AA affiliate managed by Jim Riggleman play a few games. Here are a few notes on some of the players:
J.C. Sulbaran very big right-hander at 6'2-220. Good breaking ball that slides from right to left. It looks like a soft slider basically. His fastball didn't look great, and was really hit pretty hard when it rode high. He did get some whiffs on it high though. Also has what looks like a changeup with decent late break despite not a lot of movement. He can throw that pitch for strikes. He can throw his curveball for strikes, in what is an advanced assortment of pitches, especially considering he is willing to use them all early in the game. He can get whiffs on all his pitches, especially when his slider and his curve breaks out of the zone.
Tony Cingrani has a pretty good fastball at 88-94 MPH and was blowing hitters away early on. He likes to throw it high but can throw it low as well. The lefty blew away the first 3 hitters with fastballs. He has a curveball that looks mediocre, but it looks its best when he throws it for strikes. He also throws a changeup.
Kyle Lotzkar gave up a lot of hard hit balls but had a good looking fastball with good command. He can throw some nice breaking balls for strikes that he can get whiffs with. After going strikeout crazy, he gave up a lot of fly-balls.
Drew Hayes has a not very impressive fastball with a breaking ball with late break that looks like a fastball for a while. He walked the first batter he faced despite getting a whiff early in the count. He dominated the 2nd inning when he struck out the side.
Tim Crabbe had a control issues but had good looking breaking pitches (he throws a lot of them) to go along with a decent looking fastball. He didn't give up a lot of hard hit balls besides a leadoff homer.
Mark Serrano has a sweeping slider and a 90 MPH fastball. He had problems controlling the fastball and hit a batter. His confidence was in the slider but he wasn't really throwing it for strikes. He is a good athlete on defense and has a good pickoff move for a righty.
Catcher Brad Peacock did not look like a very good defensive catcher. The opponents ran all over him. He also seems kind of small for a catcher.
Andrew Means had a big whiff on a breaking ball and was jammed on a fastball. He had a long at-bat with some fouls though, and hit a hanging breaking ball to the wall. He had issues with quality breaking balls.
Beau Mills is a big 1st baseman, but he doesn't have much bat speed, at least from what I saw. He didn't show the skills at the plate that you want in a 1st baseman. He looked like a dead fastball hitter, as he was way off when it came to the changeup. He clobbered a low fastball, so while I didn't see much at the plate, there maybe something there. Although he is a decent looking athlete with his size, he wasn't a very good fielder.
Miguel Rojas looks like a good shortstop and has pretty good looking speed as well. At the plate, he had his bat absolutely destroyed. Bryson Smith had an incredible catch in left field. His numbers in the California League (he has just recently been promoted to AA) were unimpressive though with a .807 OPS, which doesn't really cut it for a corner outfielder. Brodie Green had a bad play at 2nd but showed some pretty good contact skills with a decent eye at the plate.
Josh Fellhauer is little but had a few good pieces of hitting and appears to be a good contact guy. He did get jammed and had a weak flail at a breaking ball by a righty. He doesn't have much power or plate discipline, which is frustrating since he is listed as a corner outfielder. He does know how to hit though and can run as well.
Showing posts with label Shortstop troubles for reds. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Shortstop troubles for reds. Show all posts
Sunday, July 1, 2012
Friday, June 1, 2012
Scouting Report on Billy Hamilton
Billy Hamilton was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2009 draft by the Cincinnati Reds. According to Baseball America, he was the 48th best prospect in all of baseball coming into the year. I saw him play against the San Jose Giants on May 31st 2012.
The first question was his defense. Hamilton is a shortstop, but there have been tons of questions about his defensive play, and it has been speculated that he will be moved to center field to better suit his speed (more on that later). In what I saw, he handled everything just fine at shortstop. He did fine with both popups, and grounders. He got good jumps on balls, and his range was pretty good. There were no glaring holes in his defensive game that I saw, but it is much harder to scout one game defensively than it is offensively. You just don't always get to see them in action. If there have been multiple scouts and writers that question his defense, it is hard to overrule them just from what I saw. It could also be argued that even if he becomes a good shortstop, that there may be more value in him playing center.
Now for offense, Hamilton leads off for his team, the Bakersfield Blaze, most likely because of his speed. He showed off that speed in his first plate appearance, when he bunted in a 1-1 count. He bunted to the pitcher, but the pitcher made a throwing error, and Hamilton made it to 2nd base. Speed is Hamilton's game, as he is rated as having 80 speed on the 20-80 scale by everyone. He already has 222 steals in 297 professional games in his career. Baseball Cube rates his speed at 99 out of 100, and his speed scores have been 8.9, 9.6, 9.2, and 9.5. In his 2nd at-bat, he hit a first pitch low fastball up the middle for a single. After several pickoff moves that weren't close, he stole on a 1-1 count. In his 3rd, he took a high fastball, then popped a low middle fastball up to center field. In at-bat 4, a first pitch down the middle was fouled back, and then he popped out to first base. He was intentionally walked and scored in his next at-bat (it was a traditional intentionally walk situation). His next at-bat, he took 2 pitches to get to 1-1 before hitting a pitch right down the middle for a single. A walk brought him to 2nd base, and then in a bizarre play, the catcher picked off the runner behind him and he took 3rd. It did not technically count as a steal. His next at-bat was in the 12th inning of the game, and he chased and missed breaking balls to get to 1-2 before hitting a grounder for a fielder's choice. Naturally, he stole second. I thought he showed a decent approach at the plate (the last at-bat being more of an exception) and good contact skills. With that speed, striking out is an utter failure. So far in the minors, he has struck out 20.6 % of the time, way too much. Hamilton is far from polished at the plate, and will be eaten up alive by advanced level pitching (he is currently in High A) if he doesn't continue to progress. With his speed, he also needs to be a line drive/ground-ball hitter. While his ground-ball % has stayed at just shy of 50%, his line drive rates have been pretty low. Weak popups are an absolute waste, especially for a guy who didn't look like he had much power (stats also support this, as he has just 6 professional homers and .386 SLG. Baseball Cube rates his power at just 29). His walk rates have increased as things have gone along, and like I said, he looks like he has a decent approach, but those 2 pretty weak pop-ups were pretty frustrating. The speed is great, and he has some tools, but his overall game, both defensively and offensively needs a lot of polish before Hamilton becomes anything more than a guy that stole a lot of bases.
The first question was his defense. Hamilton is a shortstop, but there have been tons of questions about his defensive play, and it has been speculated that he will be moved to center field to better suit his speed (more on that later). In what I saw, he handled everything just fine at shortstop. He did fine with both popups, and grounders. He got good jumps on balls, and his range was pretty good. There were no glaring holes in his defensive game that I saw, but it is much harder to scout one game defensively than it is offensively. You just don't always get to see them in action. If there have been multiple scouts and writers that question his defense, it is hard to overrule them just from what I saw. It could also be argued that even if he becomes a good shortstop, that there may be more value in him playing center.
Now for offense, Hamilton leads off for his team, the Bakersfield Blaze, most likely because of his speed. He showed off that speed in his first plate appearance, when he bunted in a 1-1 count. He bunted to the pitcher, but the pitcher made a throwing error, and Hamilton made it to 2nd base. Speed is Hamilton's game, as he is rated as having 80 speed on the 20-80 scale by everyone. He already has 222 steals in 297 professional games in his career. Baseball Cube rates his speed at 99 out of 100, and his speed scores have been 8.9, 9.6, 9.2, and 9.5. In his 2nd at-bat, he hit a first pitch low fastball up the middle for a single. After several pickoff moves that weren't close, he stole on a 1-1 count. In his 3rd, he took a high fastball, then popped a low middle fastball up to center field. In at-bat 4, a first pitch down the middle was fouled back, and then he popped out to first base. He was intentionally walked and scored in his next at-bat (it was a traditional intentionally walk situation). His next at-bat, he took 2 pitches to get to 1-1 before hitting a pitch right down the middle for a single. A walk brought him to 2nd base, and then in a bizarre play, the catcher picked off the runner behind him and he took 3rd. It did not technically count as a steal. His next at-bat was in the 12th inning of the game, and he chased and missed breaking balls to get to 1-2 before hitting a grounder for a fielder's choice. Naturally, he stole second. I thought he showed a decent approach at the plate (the last at-bat being more of an exception) and good contact skills. With that speed, striking out is an utter failure. So far in the minors, he has struck out 20.6 % of the time, way too much. Hamilton is far from polished at the plate, and will be eaten up alive by advanced level pitching (he is currently in High A) if he doesn't continue to progress. With his speed, he also needs to be a line drive/ground-ball hitter. While his ground-ball % has stayed at just shy of 50%, his line drive rates have been pretty low. Weak popups are an absolute waste, especially for a guy who didn't look like he had much power (stats also support this, as he has just 6 professional homers and .386 SLG. Baseball Cube rates his power at just 29). His walk rates have increased as things have gone along, and like I said, he looks like he has a decent approach, but those 2 pretty weak pop-ups were pretty frustrating. The speed is great, and he has some tools, but his overall game, both defensively and offensively needs a lot of polish before Hamilton becomes anything more than a guy that stole a lot of bases.
Friday, January 27, 2012
Phillies and Reds swap Valdez for Horst
The Phillies traded Wilson Valdez for Jeremy Horst from the Reds.
Valdez has a 1.8 WAR over the last 3 seasons or .6 WAR per year. He is scheduled to make just under 1 million dollars in 2012, or a solid 1667 projected WASP for 2012. Offensively, he has just a .290 OBP and 67 OPS + for his career. He has improved some offensively, as he has a 76 OPS + over the last 3 years. This still is pretty bad, and assuming Valdez plays 100 games, he will "create" 13 runs less than an average player (remember to distiquish between average and "replacement" player, average is .500 winning percentage, while replacement is .320). Pretty much every offensive metric shows that Valdez is a really poor hitter, I won't bore you with the details. However, does his defense wash this out? According to Baseball Info Solutions, the only position he is good at is shortstop. He has cost his team 6 runs more than average in 105 games at 2nd, and 3 runs in 41 games at third base (he has played just 5 games in the outfield). At shortstop however, he has saved his team 13 runs in 190 games. Adjusted for 100 games, like we did with hitting, he saves about 7 runs, meaning he would cost his team 6 runs more than an average player overall (with offense and defense combined) if he only plays shortstop and plays 100 games. However, he makes more than 2 million dollars less than an average player, so it would seem Valdez is still worth his salary.
Horst made his MLB debut in 2011, pitching 12 games in relief and posting a .1 WAR. He has appeared in 42 AAA games (65.2 innings), a much bigger sample, and the one we will be using here. There, he had a -1.104 PE, or -.911 Adjusted PE. According to our AAA metric, this projects to a 1.426 PE or 1.619 Adjusted PE. Neither of those numbers are very good at all for a reliever. If you assume he throws 60 innings (like most "full time" relievers) in 2012, his projected CWAR would be 1.05 (an average reliever with a 4.2 FIP and 0 PE that pitched 60 innings would have a CWAR of about 1.06, despite Horst's bad PE, he is helped by a pretty good projected FIP in the 3.5 range), which is better than Valdez's WAR of .06 average in the last 3 years. At least in his time in the Majors, he threw an under 89 MPH on his fastball. The velocity is certainly concerning, but other than that he projects to be about an average reliever, while Valdez is an under average player. This is why it looks like the Phillies have won this trade, even if by only 6 or so runs a season.
Valdez has a 1.8 WAR over the last 3 seasons or .6 WAR per year. He is scheduled to make just under 1 million dollars in 2012, or a solid 1667 projected WASP for 2012. Offensively, he has just a .290 OBP and 67 OPS + for his career. He has improved some offensively, as he has a 76 OPS + over the last 3 years. This still is pretty bad, and assuming Valdez plays 100 games, he will "create" 13 runs less than an average player (remember to distiquish between average and "replacement" player, average is .500 winning percentage, while replacement is .320). Pretty much every offensive metric shows that Valdez is a really poor hitter, I won't bore you with the details. However, does his defense wash this out? According to Baseball Info Solutions, the only position he is good at is shortstop. He has cost his team 6 runs more than average in 105 games at 2nd, and 3 runs in 41 games at third base (he has played just 5 games in the outfield). At shortstop however, he has saved his team 13 runs in 190 games. Adjusted for 100 games, like we did with hitting, he saves about 7 runs, meaning he would cost his team 6 runs more than an average player overall (with offense and defense combined) if he only plays shortstop and plays 100 games. However, he makes more than 2 million dollars less than an average player, so it would seem Valdez is still worth his salary.
Horst made his MLB debut in 2011, pitching 12 games in relief and posting a .1 WAR. He has appeared in 42 AAA games (65.2 innings), a much bigger sample, and the one we will be using here. There, he had a -1.104 PE, or -.911 Adjusted PE. According to our AAA metric, this projects to a 1.426 PE or 1.619 Adjusted PE. Neither of those numbers are very good at all for a reliever. If you assume he throws 60 innings (like most "full time" relievers) in 2012, his projected CWAR would be 1.05 (an average reliever with a 4.2 FIP and 0 PE that pitched 60 innings would have a CWAR of about 1.06, despite Horst's bad PE, he is helped by a pretty good projected FIP in the 3.5 range), which is better than Valdez's WAR of .06 average in the last 3 years. At least in his time in the Majors, he threw an under 89 MPH on his fastball. The velocity is certainly concerning, but other than that he projects to be about an average reliever, while Valdez is an under average player. This is why it looks like the Phillies have won this trade, even if by only 6 or so runs a season.
Friday, September 16, 2011
Beware of the World Series MVP, and the Reds SS problems.
Edgar Renteria is basically became the Reds shortstop because of one pitch and one swing. Don't get me wrong, it was a beautiful swing at the most important time possible, as Renteria's 3 run shot off Cliff Lee in the World Series to give the Giants the lead for good in game 5 sealed the deal and Lincecum shut the Rangers down. The Reds, because the Giants wouldn't sign him (even though he was the MVP of the World Series), gave him $2.1 million to join the club for the year. I thought it was a bad deal (more on how terrible the deal actually is) to start with, but its really hard to be as bad of a deal as the Giants were in with him. In 2 years in San Francisco, he made $18 million, had an OPS below 700, hit a grand total of 8 homers, 70 rbis, and posted a WAR of just .4. This gave him a horrifying WASP of 45000 in his time as a Giant. How has he been this year? A replacement player. Exactly a 0 WAR. He has a WASP of 4200, a lot better than his one as a Giant, but still not good at all. The even bigger problem the Reds have faced this year? They have no replacement. Their other shortstop Paul Janish has appeared in 105 games, but he is barely over the Mendoza line, an OBP of .251, a OPS of .502, all for a total of a -.4 WAR (he is only in the majors because he can field at a 1.1 WAR, because his offense is at -1.5). The only good news is that he is making only $438,000, giving him a WASP (see previous posts on how to calculate WASP) of 1051 (its a very nice WASP, because they are paying him near league minimum they shouldn't expect anything from him is what the statistic assumes). However, he is already 28, and its hard to imagine he will improve anymore, meaning that the Reds really really need help at shortstop.
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