Saturday, November 5, 2011

Should the Giants trade Jonathan Sanchez?

Jonathan Sanchez made 4.8 million in 2011, and arbitration will decide how much he will make in 2012. In 2011, he had a WAR of just .1 in 101 innings. Over the past 3 years, Sanchez has a 1.63 WAR average, worth 4.89 million according to the Halladay Standard. However, according to the Giants payroll (8th in the MLB), Sanchez's production would be worth about 4.46 million. According to this metric, Sanchez will certainly be overpaid in 2012. So it certainly seems that he would be worth trading away. In his career, Sanchez has a great -1.44 PE (-1.4 Adjusted PE), but a very pedestrian 8.17 TR. When PE and TR disagree on the quality of a pitcher, I am more inclined to agree with TR because it is more encompassing, not to mention that WAR sides more with TR. He is a very good strikeout pitcher, which is why his PE is so good, but he basically cancels it out with all the free passes he gives up. His best year in 2010 was colored by a very low BABIP .252 and a FIP of almost a full run over his ERA. His career FIP is very unimpressive and very average at 4.30. He doesn't give up many home runs (about .9 per 9 innings), and gives up as many groundballs and flyballs. He just isn't very impressive and isn't worth the salary he will get in 2012 (and will be a free agent after the season) so it makes a lot of sense for the Giants to see what they can get for him.

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