Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Free Agent Watch: Jimmy Rollins

The Phillies Shortstop Jimmy Rollins put up a 3.7 WAR in 2011, and has a 2.23 WAR average in the past 3 years, worth 6.7 million dollars according to the Halladay Standard. In his career, Rollins has a mediocre .329 OBP and .761 OPS. His PPG and PAPP are better at a 1.44 and 2.6. He has 5.2 runs created per game, and a .532 winning percentage. His ISO sits at .160, while his secondary average is .286. None of these stats are impressive, but he is an above average extra base hitter, and a flyball hitter. His career BABIP is .289, which is under average and sort of a head-scratcher. He only sees 3.67 pitches per plate appearance, and his PPS is under average at 87.79. In 2011, his line looked like this: .338 OBP, .736 OPS, 1.38 PPG, and 2.65 PAPP. His offensive winning percentage was .550, with 5 runs created per game (the reverse correlation between these two numbers is puzzling). Win Probability had him as a negative hitter, considering all the other numbers, that probably says more about Win Probability than Rollins. His Secondary Average was .272, while his ISO was .131. He actually walked above average (he usually walks below average), and was a below average extra base hitter. He had a BABIP of .275, and in 2010 had only a .246 BABIP. He saw slightly more pitches (3.77) and had about an average PPS at 90.8. Quite frankly, Rollins is really overrated. Many key offensive metrics show that he is just above average. I would be surprised if he didn't get the 6.7 million the Halladay Standard suggested. A team certainly should not pay more, but a team probably will. He is certainly not an undervalued player that could end up being a steal. This notion that Rollins is a good leadoff hitter is really laughable according to OBP, PPS, and Walks. It seems that the common wisdom says "if he steals a lot, he is a great leadoff hitter". It does seem, at least his 2011 numbers support this narrative, he is becoming more efficient as his power wanes. Again, I am not a reporter or someone that knows how GM's are valuing Rollins, but if my guess is right, Rollins should be avoided.

No comments:

Post a Comment