Sunday, November 6, 2011

Free Agent Watch: Grady Sizemore

Grady Sizemore has been not only bitten by the injury bug in recent years, but it may have actually swallowed him whole. Over the past 3 years, he has a WAR average of .87, worth about 2.6 million according to the Halladay Standard. In 2011, he had just a .5 WAR and actually has a -.4 WAR over the last two years. Despite his name getting a lot of play in free agency talk, this can't be attractive. When he has gotten to play, he has been pretty good with a 1.52 PPG, 2.52 PAPP, .357 OBP, and .830 OPS. However, his 2011 stats, in 71 games, are much less impressive, .285 OBP, .706 OPS, 3.43 PAPP, and 1.07 PPG. Even the more steady statistics of Secondary Average and ISO show that there is a big difference between the Sizemore of several seasons ago and the Sizemore of the past 3 years. One doesn't need to really look at any other statistics to reinforce that point. The only question is whether you believe that it is worth taking the chance that Sizemore will return back to his pre-2009 form. To me, that doesn't make any sense. There is no way a sensible organization gives Sizemore than like 2 million dollars. If he breaks out and returns to form, that is awesome, but you just can't rely on it.

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