Thursday, November 3, 2011

Kyle Kendrick: Arbitration

Kyle Kendrick has a 2.1 WAR in 5 seasons. The crazy thing about this is that he had a 2.1 WAR in 2007. He then turned around and had a -1.4 WAR in 2008, and in 2011, his WAR was 1.1 (he made 2.45 million in 2011, a decent WASP of 2227). He has a horrible career PE of 4.43 and 4.97 adjusted PE. In 2011, things were a little better with a 2.3 PE and a 3.63 adjusted PE (4.26 PE and 5.33 adjusted PE in 2007). The lack of strikeouts (4.14 K/9IP) is striking, and he got away with a low BABIP (.261) in 2011 and his FIP was 1.33 higher than his ERA. He is the rare pitcher that throws less than 60% strikes, and his career TR is a lowly 7.15. In 2011 it was better at 8.96, and 8.65 in 2007. This means that his "best" year might have actually been worse than 2011. There is plenty to suggest his 07 season was pretty lucky anyway, as his FIP was 1.07 higher than his ERA and his BABIP was well below league average and slight below career average at .281. Despite being a groundball pitcher (1.37 GB/FB), he still struggles with the long ball (1.2 HR/9IP). His career RE 24 is -15.51, meaning he has given up 15.51 runs more than an average pitcher would. Kyle Kendrick is like the guy who has 4 really successful brothers (Worley, Halladay, Lee, and Hamels) but still can't get a job, and lives with his parents. He isn't going to be worth the money he is going to get in arbitration but one would have to imagine it would be hard to dump him. If any organization attaches any value to Kendrick, they are overvaluing him, his "good" years were clearly fluky, as shown above.

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