Wednesday, November 9, 2011

I want Ryan Madson's job

So it appears the Phillies have offered closer Ryan Madson a 4 year 44 million dollar deal. Madson had a 2.2 WAR in 2011, with a 1.7 WAR average over the past 3 years. The latter is worth 5.1 million, while the former is worth 6.6 million. You could probably end the article right here, but just for fun, I want to include this quote from Keith Law's twitter account: "The Phillies are now set up to pay $11MM to a guy who threw just over 4% of their innings in 2011, which is great on a $500MM payroll." So it is quite obvious that Ryan Madson is being way overpaid by the Phillies. All the reports I am hearing is that they are going to keep him as a closer. The only real way to redeem this contract is to make him a starter. He had a 2.2 WAR in 60.2 innings, and if he pitched 200 innings at the same success, he would have a 7.3 WAR which would be worth about 22 million a year, which would actually be a deal for Philly. However, that would be assuming the same success that he has as a reliever to a starter. This is no slam dunk, and in fact reliever's PEs are much lower than starters on average. For Madson to meet the WAR neccessary to earn 11 million dollars, he would need to throw 100 innings at the same effectiveness he threw 60 innings in 2011. This most certainly won't happen. Madson is a very good reliever, he had an adjusted PE of -3.44 in 2011, but he certainly isn't worth 11 million unless he is a top of the rotation starter, and the Phillies have a few of those.

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