Monday, November 28, 2011

Should the Cubs trade Randy Wells?

Randy Wells had just a .6 WAR in 2011. However, he had a 2.27 WAR average over the past 3 years (his only 3 full years in the big leagues). He is arbitration eligible, and is projected to make about 2.25 million dollars. This would be a very good 1101 WASP. 2011 was not a very good year for Wells, as he had a 3.57 PE and 3.69 adjusted PE. He did this despite only having a .275 BABIP. He had a TR of just above 6.5, and struggled with the longball at 1.53 HR/9IP. In his career, he has a PE of 2.03 and TR of 8.79. Neither of those numbers are impressive, but he is a groundball pitcher that has a mediocre SIERA of 4.33. He is probably about a 3 or 4 starter in a rotation, but, at least according to the WAR he has been putting up, he is underpaid. The Bill James protections have him putting up a 1.83 PE in 2012, which may be a little kind, as it gave him more strikeouts that usual. Wells is basically an average pitcher that isn't very impressive, but not bad at all as his ERA - (97) and FIP - (102) show. I don't see him having a lot of trade value, and with the problems the Cubs have had with pitching, I don't see the reason for them trying to move him.

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