Saturday, November 5, 2011

Should the Braves trade Prado and Jurrjens?

The Braves have now let it leak that they are interested in trading both Martin Prado and Jair Jurrjens. Prado has a 2.1 WAR average over the last 3 years (worth 6.3 million) and is going to arbitration this off-season (he made 3.1 million dollars in 2011, a 1476 WASP). Despite injury problems, Jair Jurrjens has still managed to put a 3 WAR average together over the past 3 years, which is worth 9 million dollars. He too will be in arbitration and he made 3.25 million in 2011. With the Braves payroll, they can afford about 2 million dollars per ever Win Above Replacement. This means that Jurrjens is worth about 6 million dollars to the Braves, and Prado is worth about about 4 million. I am not an arbitration expert, so I don't know how much they will probably get, but this metric makes the idea of the Braves trading these two less absurd than I thought when I originally heard the news. Prado has a slightly above average OBP of .341, PPG of 1.03, 2.83 PAPP, and OPS of .775. All these numbers are above average or replacement, but not amazing. Prado's well known flexibility defensively is overrated, as he has a -.3 D-WAR for his career. His Secondary Average (.212), and ISO (.141) are very pedestrian and concerning. While his Runs Created per Game is 5.1 and his Offensive Winning Percentage is .540, he walks less than average. His PPS is nothing real impressive at 92.69. As for Jurrjens, even though he was heralded as one of the best pitcher's in the league while healthy, he had a 1.3 PE and 2.33 Adjusted PE, hardly one of the league's best. His career PE is .98, with an Adjusted PE of 1.46. As bizarre as it sounds, he has obviously been helped out by the Braves defense (with perhaps some luck as well). His career TR is 9.68, and in 2011 it was 10.23. This is pretty good, and Jurrjens seems to be a relatively valuable pitcher. I think for either one it depends on how much they get in arbitration, if they go above the numbers listed above, it makes sense to trade them. With that said, it is imperative they don't miss on the trade and get real value back.

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