Saturday, November 12, 2011
Correction: I want Jonathan Papelbon's job
The Phillies GM went on the MLB Network's Clubhouse Confidential the other day and told the baseball world that the Phillies are more interested in scouting than analytics in baseball. Perhaps they have shunned some analytics so much that they don't understand simple mathematics. I prematurely posted on the Ryan Madson contract with the Phillies (that deal end up falling through, I will keep the post up because it still has relevancy for teams considering Madson), and mocked the Phillies for that deal, but this Papelbon deal is even worse. They are giving a 4 year $50 million deal to a pitcher who throws about 60 innings a season. He will make 12.5 million a year (although probably not that exact number every year, but that will be the average), or about 1 million dollars every 5 innings. In 2011, Papelbon's WAR was all of 2. Teammate and fellow reliever Alfredo Aceves had a 2.9 WAR in 2011, while the set-up man Daniel Bard and 4th outfielder Josh Reddick both had 1.6 WARs. Over the past 3 years, Papelbon has a WAR average of just 2.1, worth 6.3 million dollars according to the Halladay Standard. So according to the most important and encompassing metric, Papelbon is being paid twice as much as he is worth. His -5.3 PE and 14.03 TR show that Papelbon is an incredible pitcher, and I am certainly not arguing that he is not, but with the small number of innings he actually pitches, he certainly isn't wort even close the the amount of money he is getting paid.