Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Luke Scott: Arbitration

Luke Scott made 6.4 million dollars in 2011, and awarded the Orioles by posting an even 0 WAR. It was is worst year since 05 when he broke into the big leagues and only had 89 Plate Appearances. He was coming off of his best year, where in 2010 he had a 3.4 WAR. So in the last two years, he had a 1.7 WAR average (worth 5.1 million dollars), which is actually better than previous years, when he had a WAR average of 1.46 (worth 4.38 million). He isn't a good defender (0 D-WAR in his career), a -.4 WAR in Baltimore, where they can't use him as a DH because of their personnel. His career Offensive Numbers are: .349 OBP, .843 OPS, 1.1 PPG, and 2.58 PAPP. In 2011 he had a .703 OPS, .301 OBP, .875 PPG, and 2.99 PAPP. It is very tempting to throw 2011 out because of the small sample size (64 games), all the injury problems he had, and his low BABIP (.250, his career BABIP is .295). He has a .612 offensive winning percentage, and .358 Secondary Average in his career. A flyball hitter, he walks 11.1% of the time, is an above average home run and extra base hitter (a .230 ISO also speaks to that). His career PPS is 94.94. He is overvalued according to his salary, and obviously didn't live up to his salary in 2011. However, as the numbers above point out, he has pretty good career numbers, but he just isn't worth what he is making. Because of his low batting average, he may actually be undervalued in the trade market, making things worse for the Orioles. If he can stay healthy, he should have a good 2012, the Orioles should probably just eat the extra salary, and if they are not competitive at the trade deadline, dump him to a contender and take some prospects. If for some reason they are competitive, they can keep him and let him become a free agent at the end of the year.

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