Wednesday, November 30, 2011

How much value does Maicer Izturis have?

Their are rumors that the Tigers are going to try to trade for the Angels infielder Maicer Izturis. In 2011, he had a 3.3 WAR, giving him a very good WASP of 990. Over the past 3 years, Izturis has a WAR average of 2.6, worth 7.8 million (he will make just 3.8 million in 2012). He is coming off his best year defensively at a 1.4 D-WAR. As far as I can see, D-WAR is not predictive. For example Carlos Lee went from a -2 D-WAR in 2010 to a NL leading 2.1 D-WAR in 2011 (this could be partly explained by Lee playing more first base in 2011, but that can't explain all of it).That is not to say that D-WAR is useless, I think the basic formula for runs saved is solid. It is just not predictive. He has a 2.9 WAR in his 9 year career, which is .3625 D-WAR average per year. That defense alone is worth over a million dollars. So what is his offense like? His OBP is not real impressive at .339, and his OPS + is just 95 (with an O4S of 1.745). His Secondary Average and Isolated Slugging are perhaps more disappointing at .226 and .114, but he has an offensive winning percentage just short of .500 and 4.8 Runs Created Per Game (the American League scored 4.46 runs per game in 2011, so according to that metric he is above average). He is by no means a home run hitter, and he walks about average, but he does have a decent PPS of 92.07. All around he seems to be a very average offensive player. However, once you add his good defensive play, and reasonable salary, he becomes pretty valuable. However, knowing the Angels (at least professed) emphasis on defense, it would probably take a lot to pry away Izturis from them.

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