Thursday, November 17, 2011

Shaun Marcum: Arbitration

Marcum had a 3.3 WAR in 2011, and that his average WAR for the past 3 seasons played. According to the Halladay Standard, that is worth about 10 million dollars. Marcum made almost 4 million dollars in 2011. So according to WAR and WASP, he is very undervalued. In 2011, Marcum had a .22 PE, and an adjusted PE of .41, pretty solid. He had an excellent TR of 10.05, and a FIP - of 98. However, his SIERA argues he is due for regression at 3.91, and at first look his BABIP (.261) looks like Marcum was very lucky. However, he has a career BABIP of .269, and with such a large sample size, it is hard to argue that he should give up a higher one. He does give up more flyballs than grounders, but a large percentage (16.2% in 2011 and 11.7% in his career) of those stayed in the infield. Bill James' projections have his BABIP going up to a .284 and he also has him giving up more home runs in 2012 (he gave up .99 HR/9IP in 2011, but has given up 1.23 HR/9IP in his career). James has Marcum actually improving overall, racking up a -.11 PE, and .38 adjusted PE. So if James is right, and I think he is being mean to Marcum if anything with the higher BABIP etc., then Marcum would be worth over 10 million dollars in 2012. Since it seems unlikely that Marcum would get that much in Arbitration, it would be absurd for the Brewers to trade him.

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