Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Reviewing the Iannetta-Chatwood trade

 The Colorado Rockies have shipped Chris Iannetta to the Angels for Tyler Chatwood.

Iannetta had a 2.6 WAR in 2011, and a 1.27 WAR average over the past 3 years. Iannetta is scheduled to make 3.55 million in 2012. Iannetta has a -.5 D-WAR for his career, along with a below average range factor. He does have an above average fielding percentage, but he doesn't seem to be the defensive catcher that the Angels usually go after. Offensively, he is above average, with a .357 OBP, 99 OPS +, and 1.858 O4S. His 5.5 Runs Created per Game, and .568 offensive winning percentage is probably ignored because of his .235 Batting Average. He has a .365 Secondary Average and .195 ISO, along with a 3.6% home run rate. He walks at a great percentage (13.9%) and is very much a flyball hitter. He also has an excellent PPS of 101.61. He has received quite a bit of benefit from the hitter friendly Rockies ballpark, as Baseball Reference says his OBP would drop to .343 (1.785 O4S) in a neutralized run environment. These are still decent numbers, especially for a catcher.

Chatwood had a -.6 WAR in 25 starts in 2011, his first year in the Majors. He also just has 5 career AAA starts, so it is hard to pull anything from that. So we will have to go by his meager sample size in the Major Leagues. His PE was awful at 4.72, with an adjusted PE of 4.86. His FIP - was 122, and he walked nearly as many batters as he struck out. He did suffer from a high BABIP of .325, but that can't explain away his horrible TR of 6.71. So obviously Chatwood was horrible in 2011, so the Rockies have to believe he projects to be better. Speaking of projections, the Bill James projections has him turning out a 4.73 PE. So no real movement there, but he did give up less than a homer every 9 innings, and gets slightly more groundballs than flyballs. That has to be what the Rockies see in him (as well as the fact that he is under club control for a few more years).

Chatwood appears to be a below replacement pitcher that should be in AAA in 2012. On the other hand, Iannetta is one of the few catchers that can mash and get on base. The Rockies do cut some payroll, but only like 3 million and it was a very underpaid and undervalued offensive tool they let go. Unless Chatwood turns into an all-star type pitcher, the Rockies look very dumb here.

No comments:

Post a Comment