Release Point Changes, Roy Halladay and John Axford

Much has been written about Roy Halladay's loss of overall velocity and overall effectiveness, as he followed a terrible spring training (after a mediocre season) by being pounded by the Braves in the opener. I noticed while watching highlights of his start, and I think others have since noted this as well, that his arm angle looked pretty low and out. Instead of coming at some kind of 3/4 angle, he was coming out more sidearm. Sure enough, the data suggested this as well. Below, I looked at his opening day start from 2011, his final 2012 start, and then his start in 2013.

This chart should show the difference in both the height and the side:

Here is his difference in height:

Here is the difference in his release from the center of the rubber

That last one may be a little misleading as the chart goes down, but (since it is negative) he is coming out more.

Basically, Halladay is pitching more sidearm, which is almost never a good thing for a starter. Halladay went from being 6.16 feet high total (so we don't even see the initial drop from his earlier years to 2011), which is closest to (thanks to our sortable release point charts) Greg Maddux and Vin Mazzero, to 5.77, which is closest to pitchers that are either soft tossers (Cloyd and Vargas) or extremely wild or injured pitchers (Sanchez and Bedard). In fact, at his new height, it is hard to see a successful pitcher within 20 pitchers or so (depending on what you think of Vargas, Alex Cobb is probably the best pitcher in the general area of 5.7). I count 17 right-handed pitchers in the area of (-) 1.9 feet out from the side. The majority of these actually turned out to be relievers (like Joba or Boggs)  or very back of the rotation starters (Lyles, Humber, and Pinero). I count three as being real successful starters (Vogelsong, Dempster, and Zimmerman, with Davis, Hunter, and Volquez sort of on the edge). Compare this to Halladay's old release point from opening day of 2011, where we get a lot of successful starters (Harang, Mussina, Paulino, Schilling, Baker, and Cahill). The movement doesn't look like a lot, but it is telling when making comparisons, which is why I thought making the chart was so useful.

The closest comparison in both height and horizontal "outness" for Halladay is a right-handed Jonathan Sanchez. We don't have Sanchez data from 2013 yet, but when looking at Sanchez' 2012, we actually see that he was releasing the ball further out and lower. Sanchez has regressed more to this point, but it still isn't a good sign for Halladay, who has usually been an efficient control artist. We have only actually looked at the average release point and have yet to look at whether or not he is less or more consistent.

Here is the Standard Deviation (which measures the variance of the release points here) broken down by each outing:
2011 side: .13
2011 height: .09
2012 side: .12
2012 height: .12
2013 side: .14
2013 height: .18

So as we see, not only has his release point changed in a way that is less desirable, it is also more inconsistent (though I guess that isn't surprising if we are talking about a change). He has been especially less efficient when it comes to height, as we don't see a lot of change in consistency from the side. He has had some back and hip issues, so this isn't exactly revelatory information.

John Axford, the Brewer's closer, has also been really struggling and now some blame has shifted to his release point. When looking at Axford, we see something strange

Though his release point has become more "visible" to hitters according to reports, he is actually releasing the ball higher and less out. This is obviously the opposite of Halladay, and one would think it would be the opposite of easy to see, because his arm isn't coming out. There does seem to be a change though, and maybe that is the problem. 

How much does velocity matter?

I wanted to see the correlation between velocity and effectiveness in a pitcher. This has huge ramifications for scouting, as a pitcher's velocity is one of the first things looked at by scouts. So here I used any pitcher who threw at least 20 innings in 2011 in the NL West. I used Fangraphs customizable reports, and used FIP - as the standard of effectiveness, and used their velocity charts. My assumption before hand was that top velocity matters very little and speed differential matters much more, so I also subtracted the highest velocity from the lowest velocity for each pitcher (click on the images to enlarge).

Interesting to note that the Phillies, the best pitching team in baseball, had only one qualifying player throw 94 MPH, and no one threw harder. All 5 pitchers that threw over 95 were above average (above average is having a FIP - below 100, below average is anything above 100), so it does seem there is a positive correlation between big time velocity and success. 22 pitchers didn't throw pitches at 90MPH or more, and 9 were above average and 13 were below average.
There were only two pitchers who had differentials more than 20 MPH, and they both were above average. 20 pitchers had differentials of 15 or more MPH, 15 were above average and 5 were below average. However, 16 players had differentials of less than 10 MPH and 12 of those pitchers were above average. So perhaps there isn't much to speed differential. At the very least, we have to say the results are inconclusive. It doesn't even seem to help to have a slow pitch necessarily, as 3 of the 4 pitchers with pitches less than 70 MPH were below average.
So it does seem that having a 95+ MPH pitch correlates to success, while not being able to throw 90 correlates to failure.

Should the Padres trade Orlando Hudson?

The Padres, a team that doesn't spend a lot of money (this seems to be by choice rather than by ability), is reportedly thinking about moving Orlando Hudson. He is scheduled to make 5.5 million in 2012. That is quite a problem, because he had a 4000 WASP (over the Halladay Standard of 3000) with a 4 million dollar salary. Over the past 3 years, he has had a 2.23 WAR, which would be a 2466 WASP for his 2012 salary. So was he poor 2011 season (1 WAR) an aberration, or is that what we should expect from Hudson from now on? For one, he had a career worst D-WAR in 2011, at -.7. I don't find defensive statistics very predictive, but at age 33, it is very likely that his defensive skills has diminished (his Range Factor was certainly poorer). So we will assume a -.7 D-WAR for 2012 to stay on the safe side (he has a 1.6 D-WAR in his 10 year career, so we will keep the number .16 around for theoretical purposes as well). In his 10 year career, he has a 20.1 O-WAR, so an average of 2.01 O-WAR (for the record, his Simple WAR is 1.42 for his career). In 2011, his O-WAR was 1.7 (His Simple WAR was .35). At his 2012 salary, Hudson will be about 12 percent of San Diego's salary. This means that, to justify his percentage of salary (assuming the Padres are trying to win 95 games), he would have to have a WAR of 5.23 according to my (sometimes shaky) math. Of course, Hudson has never come close to this. He would actually only need 1.83 WAR to meet the Halladay Standard, and it would be doubtful he could even reach that (if we look at his career Offensive WAR and assume a -.7 D-WAR). I thought it was slight insanity that the Padres didn't move him during the season, and it would be pure insanity if they didn't move him now.

Free Agent Watch: Jimmy Rollins

The Phillies Shortstop Jimmy Rollins put up a 3.7 WAR in 2011, and has a 2.23 WAR average in the past 3 years, worth 6.7 million dollars according to the Halladay Standard. In his career, Rollins has a mediocre .329 OBP and .761 OPS. His PPG and PAPP are better at a 1.44 and 2.6. He has 5.2 runs created per game, and a .532 winning percentage. His ISO sits at .160, while his secondary average is .286. None of these stats are impressive, but he is an above average extra base hitter, and a flyball hitter. His career BABIP is .289, which is under average and sort of a head-scratcher. He only sees 3.67 pitches per plate appearance, and his PPS is under average at 87.79. In 2011, his line looked like this: .338 OBP, .736 OPS, 1.38 PPG, and 2.65 PAPP. His offensive winning percentage was .550, with 5 runs created per game (the reverse correlation between these two numbers is puzzling). Win Probability had him as a negative hitter, considering all the other numbers, that probably says more about Win Probability than Rollins. His Secondary Average was .272, while his ISO was .131. He actually walked above average (he usually walks below average), and was a below average extra base hitter. He had a BABIP of .275, and in 2010 had only a .246 BABIP. He saw slightly more pitches (3.77) and had about an average PPS at 90.8. Quite frankly, Rollins is really overrated. Many key offensive metrics show that he is just above average. I would be surprised if he didn't get the 6.7 million the Halladay Standard suggested. A team certainly should not pay more, but a team probably will. He is certainly not an undervalued player that could end up being a steal. This notion that Rollins is a good leadoff hitter is really laughable according to OBP, PPS, and Walks. It seems that the common wisdom says "if he steals a lot, he is a great leadoff hitter". It does seem, at least his 2011 numbers support this narrative, he is becoming more efficient as his power wanes. Again, I am not a reporter or someone that knows how GM's are valuing Rollins, but if my guess is right, Rollins should be avoided.

Free Agent Watch: Michael Cuddyer

The Twins' Michael Cuddyer had a 3 WAR in 2011, the highest of his career (at age 32), giving him a 1.73 WAR average for the past 3 years, worth 5.2 million. The obvious question is whether or not his career best 2011 at an age where he should be declining is fluky or not. His OBP was around his career number at .346 (.343 for his career), as was OPS (.805-.794). A tie for his best career batting average (.284) makes Cuddyer artificially more expensive in the free agent market. In 2011, he had a 1.23 PPG, and 2.56 PAPP (career 1.21 PPG and 2.69 PAPP). He has proved to be a miserable fielder at -5.3 D-WAR, and 2.01 Range Factor. His ISO and Secondary Averages are not impressive at .180 and .290 respectively for his career (his 2011 numbers were actually slightly lower). His BABIP was .312 (.306 for his career) in 2011, so it is hard to call his 2011 season really lucky, the numbers are real, but perhaps over-hyped. With that said, he has a career Runs Created per game of 5.2 and an Offensive Winning Percentage of .524. He is certainly an above average offensive player. He walks just above average at 9% and is an above average power hitter. The real concerning thing I see is that he hits more groundballs than average, and hits less linedrives than average. However, with such large sample sizes, it is doubtful that it will somehow catch up with him, he seems to be able to be successful with those percentages. Win Probability metrics actually go against WAR and other statistics and say that Cuddyer had as many negative plays as positive plays in 2011, making him an average hitter that doesn't help or hurt the team. I don't really know how trustworthy those statistics are, and as all the other metrics declare he is an above average hitter, I think the anomaly is probably just that. He sees just an above average amount of pitches per plate appearance, and has a PPS of 92.83 for his career. This is just above average, just as Cuddyer is as a hitter, but he is a terrible fielder, and seemingly overvalued. He isn't worth more than 5 million dollars, but it will be interesting to see how much he gets (he made 10.5 in 2011, and even with his 3 WAR his WASP was 3500, over the Halladay Standard).

Kyle Kendrick: Arbitration

Kyle Kendrick has a 2.1 WAR in 5 seasons. The crazy thing about this is that he had a 2.1 WAR in 2007. He then turned around and had a -1.4 WAR in 2008, and in 2011, his WAR was 1.1 (he made 2.45 million in 2011, a decent WASP of 2227). He has a horrible career PE of 4.43 and 4.97 adjusted PE. In 2011, things were a little better with a 2.3 PE and a 3.63 adjusted PE (4.26 PE and 5.33 adjusted PE in 2007). The lack of strikeouts (4.14 K/9IP) is striking, and he got away with a low BABIP (.261) in 2011 and his FIP was 1.33 higher than his ERA. He is the rare pitcher that throws less than 60% strikes, and his career TR is a lowly 7.15. In 2011 it was better at 8.96, and 8.65 in 2007. This means that his "best" year might have actually been worse than 2011. There is plenty to suggest his 07 season was pretty lucky anyway, as his FIP was 1.07 higher than his ERA and his BABIP was well below league average and slight below career average at .281. Despite being a groundball pitcher (1.37 GB/FB), he still struggles with the long ball (1.2 HR/9IP). His career RE 24 is -15.51, meaning he has given up 15.51 runs more than an average pitcher would. Kyle Kendrick is like the guy who has 4 really successful brothers (Worley, Halladay, Lee, and Hamels) but still can't get a job, and lives with his parents. He isn't going to be worth the money he is going to get in arbitration but one would have to imagine it would be hard to dump him. If any organization attaches any value to Kendrick, they are overvaluing him, his "good" years were clearly fluky, as shown above.

Free Agent Watch: Roy Oswalt

"The Big 4" may be coming to an end (with no championships) as the Phillies have declined the option on Roy Oswalt's contract. In 11 career seasons, Oswalt has a 46.3 WAR, which is a 4.21 average, which is worth 12.6 million a year according to the Halladay Standard. 2011 was disappointing though, with a 1.7 WAR, worth just 5.1 million. In 2010 he had a 5.1 WAR, worth 15.3. This is a big range, and isn't all that helpful. In 2011, in just 139 innings, he had a TR of 10.85, nothing to sneeze at. The PE wasn't ideal at 1.76. In his career, he has a TR of 12.29, and a PE of -.46. Why the dropoff? He struck out less people in 2011, was unhealthy, and seemed to be slightly unlucky at a  .316 BABIP (his FIP was lower than his ERA though). In fact, Fangraphs has him at a 2.5 WAR, if he threw 200 innings at the same WAR ratio, he would have had a 3.6 WAR (worth 10.8 million), and a Baseball Reference WAR of 2.45 (worth 7.35 million). It depends on which WAR you trust. For the Phillies, it doesn't make a lot of sense to resign him. Especially because of the emergence of Vance Worley, who had a -1.49 PE, 2.8 WAR, and 11.05 TR in 2011. With that said, if you think he can stay healthy, Oswalt is a legitimate top of the rotation pitcher, and it would probably be unwise too say he is no longer one because of one year.

Emilio Bonafacio: Arbitration

Emilio Bonafacio had a 2.4 WAR in 2011 (worth 7.2 million according to Halladay Standard), he had a negative career WAR before that with the Marlins, Nationals, and Diamondbacks. Bonafacio had a career high in games and plate appearances in 2011. He put up a .360 OBP in 2011, along with a .753 OPS, 1.05 PPG, and 2.47 PAPP. In his career, he has been far less impressive: .328 OBP, .676 OPS, .94 PPG, and 2.77 PAPP. So is Bonafacio's great 2011 season an adjustment, simply the product of a full season, or pure lightening in the bottle. He had a career high BABIP of .372 in 2011, something that can't be expected to repeat. What if he reverts back to his normal BABIP of .339? It would seem (by dividing the his career BABIP/2011 BABIP and then multiplying the .911 answer by his 2011 OBP and getting .328) that he would revert back to an average OBP (which is also his career average). One would think that average would be slightly above WAR (since a "replacement player" is usually considered a minor league type player, not an average major league player). There is some stats that may go against this narrative though. For instance, he had just 1 home run through 923 PA before 2011, but hit 5 in 2011. So it would not be crazy to sit on the other side of the fence and insist that Bonafacio is simply hitting the ball harder. I think the answer is somewhere in the middle, there is no way that his 2011 BABIP is sustainable. He certainly has to be on drop-off watch. It is hard to believe he will be as successful in 2012 as he was in 2011. That doesn't mean he will be a bad hitter or anything, as his career PPS is 94.66, a pretty solid number. He is not a good fielder, but he can play any position besides pitcher or catcher. It is hard to imagine he will get tons of money in arbitration, so it still makes sense for the Marlins to keep him around, however, I would expect his trade value would be too high to be worth trying to acquire from the Marlins.

Free Agent Watch: Ramon Santiago

Ramon Santiago put up 1.3 WAR in 2011. That would be worth 3.9 million according to Halladay Standard. Over the past 3 years, he has averaged a 1.67 WAR, worth 5 million according to Halladay Standard. It is clearly his defense that is carrying him though, he had a pathetic 3.3 PAPP, .63 PPG, .311 OBP, .695 OPS in 2011. In his career, the numbers are about the same: 3.3 PAPP, .67, .316 OBP, .658 OPS. He has a career 81.96 pitches per starter (a metric that measures how many pitches he would cause a starter to throw through 6 innings if he was every single plate appearance), hits more groundballs than major league average, and 17% of his flyballs were in the infield in 2011 (way more than league average). Of course, he doesn't walk much, gets less extra base hits than most major leaguers, and has over twice as many at-bats per home runs as average. His career secondary average is a pretty putrid .176, and an offense full of Santiago's would win just 38% of its games (assuming average pitching and fielding). Whatever he is going to be paid, it is going to be too much. The only positive statistic he has every led the league in is sacrifice hits. That says it all.

Free Agent Watch: Mark Buehrle

Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Mark Buehrle has a 15 million dollar option for 2012, it may not be exercised, which would make him a free agent. In 2011, he put up a 3.7 WAR, which would be worth 11.1 million dollars. Over the last 3 years, Buehrle has put up an average of 4.03 WAR, wortg 12.1 million according to the Halladay Standard. He is pretty clearly not worth the 15 million dollar option. Because he is not a strikeout pitcher, his PE was very pedestrian in 2011 at 2.84. His TR was slightly better at 9.54, which is not bad. His BABIP is about average for his career, and is lower than most pitchers, but that may be more due to his groundball tendencies than luck. However, his FIP was higher than his actual ERA, meaning that his fielders probably made him look better than he actually was in 2011. His reputation of being a groundball pitcher may be overblown as well, as he only had a 1.27 groundball/flyball ratio. He gives up about 1 HR every 9 innings in his career, which also goes against a groundball pitcher reputation. Because he doesn't strike out very many batters, and doesn't get as many groundballs as you would like, a lot of things are left to chance and luck, which should concern any GM or organization. His career FIP is 4.13, and it would seem that pitchers with that number would be quite common. The only real attractive thing is that he doesn't walk many batters, but his shiny 6.99 ERA in September in 2011 is not very attractive. I wouldn't dish out the money he is scheduled to make, or even what he is worth according to the Halladay Standard. There are better pitchers out there then Buehrle.

Series Review: Phillies vs Cardinals

So yeah. That happened. To cap off a great first round of postseason play, the Cardinals shock the Phillies, as Carpenter out-dueled Roy Halladay. The Phillies were my World Series pick, and statistically they were picked to win this series. The pitching match-ups were so stacked toward the Phillies. However, statistics are averages, and Cliff Lee pitched terrible, Roy Oswalt pitched terrible, and Edwin Jackson pitched amazingly. The Law of averages said this probably wouldn't happen, but the very unlikely happened. There really isn't any other way to explain it. The Phillies hitters were really unimpressive, and didn't successfully work counts and take pitches (only 3.5 pitches per plate appearances in game 5 with no walks). When you do that, you lose virtually every time. Ryan Howard did nothing in the last 3 games, and Pence, Polanco, Ibanez, and Ruiz all underperformed (and Ruiz and Ibanez were rated really low, not much were expected from them). The Cardinals bullpen, once considered a problem, performed very solid. Despite battling injuries Schumaker proved to be one of the best hitters in the series, and was pretty lowly rated. Just a goofy series, and it proved just about anything can happen in a 5 game series.

Pre-Statistics picks: 3-1
Statistic Picks: 0-4
Teams with higher payroll: 2-2
Interesting note: none of the top 9 payroll teams made it past the first round. The Tigers, 10th highest payroll, have the highest payroll out of teams remaining.

Free Agent Watch: David Ortiz

After the (hilarious) historic collapse of the Boston Red Sox in 2011, they face many questions going into next season. Who will be there manager? What is going to happen with their GM Theo Epstein? How can they make all these bad contracts go away? Among these questions is, are they going to sign David Ortiz? As has become custom, I will look at the previous 3 seasons and see how much Ortiz is worth. Over the last 3 years, Ortiz has put up a 6.9 WAR, 2.3 WAR a year. This is the same as Todd Helton, less than half of Ian Kinsler's, about half of Mark Texiera's, and less than half of Ben Zobrist's. It is pretty evident that Ortiz is overrated. In the last 3 years Ortiz has made $38.5 million, giving him a 5579 WASP, well over the Halladay Standard. Instead, Ortiz is actually worth $6.9 million. He is actually coming off a year where he had a very nice PAPP (2.25) and a solid PPG (1.44) and he still gets on base (.398 OBP), so he can very valuable in the lineup, but he can't field, and he can't run, which really hurts his overall WAR. He still has a 7.6 Runs Created per game and his Offensive Winning percentage is .713. He is still a very good offensive tool, but not worth what the Red Sox have been paying him. My guess is that the Red Sox will overpay him and keep him.

An Uggla collapse

During last off-season, the Braves traded pitcher Michael Dunn and infielder Omar Infante for slugging 2nd basemen Dan Uggla. An Uggla delivered, for his old team and division rival Marlins. His batting problems were well documented, his OBP was .058 less than his previous career low. However, it was his defense that was the bigger problem in '11. He led NL 2nd basemen in errors, and posted a horrible -1.5 WAR on D. He actually had more homers in '11 than in '10, but had less RBIs (probably because less runners in front of him on base, which is why RBIs is a very imperfect stat). His other offensive metrics weren't very impressive, 1.29 PPG, and 2.85 PAPP. Those are okay numbers, until you consider his salary. Through 2015, Uggla will average making 12.4 million a year. He posted just a 1.6 WAR in his first year as a Brave (again, mainly because of his horrible defense), giving him a WASP of 7750 with that salary number (with the Marlins, Uggla posted an amazing 928 WASP, he averaged a 3.08 WAR with Florida, meriting a 9.24 million dollar salary). With that big salary number, even the good 2010 would have barely put him under the Halladay Standard at a 2952 WASP. He actually made 9 million in 2011, giving him a still not good WASP of 5825 for the middle of the road salary Braves. He will need a career high 4.3 WAR next year just to meet the Halladay Standard and be "worth it", and he has clearly regressed defensively, so that will be even harder to do. Omar Infante posted a career high 3.4 WAR in Florida, while making 2.5 million (an amazing 735 WASP). He is a free agent this offseason however. Michael Dunn posted a .7 WAR and a great WASP of 591 and won't be a free agent until 2016. Considering that the Braves missed the playoffs by one game, and lost 2.5 wins over replacement (!) in this trade, its not hyperbole or sports talk radio to say that this trade cost them the playoffs. Of course, its again the Marlins ( went nearly .500 this season despite having 24th largest payroll) doing a great job of unloading homegrown players when they get more expensive, and getting good players in return.

Playoff Preview: Phillies versus Cardinals

I picked the Phillies to win the World Series, so of course I have them winning the series before statistics.

Everyone expects the Phillies to use this rotation: Halladay (.23 WAR per start, -2.75 PE), Lee (.22 WAR per Start, -3.52 PE) , Hamels (-2.33 PE, .17 WAR per start), and Oswalt (2.01 PE, .06 WAR per start). Their lineup should look like this (in no particular order): Victorino (.04 WAR a game, 2.5 PAPP, 1.47 PPG), Ibanez (1.2 PPG, negative WAR, 3.6 PAPP), Pence (.04 WAR a game, 1.44 PPG, 2.32 PAPP), Ruiz (.02 WAR per game, .72 PPG, 2.72 PAPP), Howard (.017 WAR per game, 2.58 PAPP, 1.53 PPG), Utley (.032 WAR per game, 2.79 PAPP, 1.17 PPG), Rollins (.025 WAR per game, 2.56 PAPP, 1.36 PPG), and Valdez (Negative WAR, 3.47 PAPP, .74 PPG). Madson (-3.08 PE, 1.7 WAR), Lidge (.3 WAR, -5.92 PE), Worley (-1.51 PE, 2.5 WAR), Stutes (-1.14 PE, 0 WAR), Bastardo (-5.83 PE, .7 WAR), Kendrick (.4 WAR, 2.29 PE), Blanton (2.45 PE, .5 WAR), Herndon (-.6 WAR, 1.16 PE), and Schwimer (-.1 WAR, .18 PE) should round out their bullpen.

For the Cardinals, the starting rotation should look like: Carpenter (.11 WAR per Start, .07 PE), Lohse (.083 WAR per start, 1.66 PE), Garcia (.028 WAR per start, .34 PE), and Westbrook (3.91 PE, Negative WAR).  Their bullpen maps out with these guys: Rhodes (2.95 PE, -.6 WAR), Rzepczynski (1 WAR, -2.07 PE), Dotel (-4.04 PE, .9 WAR), Jackson (1.38 PE, 3.8 WAR), Salas (-3.93 PE, 1 WAR), Mclellen (3.23 PE, negative WAR), Motte (-3.15 PE, 1.6 WAR), and Boggs (.3 WAR, .43 PE). They will probably run out this lineup (in no order): Jay (.01 WAR per game, 2.92 PAPP, .63 PPG), Berkman (.036 WAR per game, 1.5 PPG, 2.21 PAPP) , Holliday (.033 WAR per game, 1.48 PPG, 2.4 PAPP), Pujols (.037 WAR per game, 2.33 PAPP, 1.7 PPG), Freese (1.1 PPG, .019 WAR per game, 2.71 PAPP), Furcal (.028 WAR per game, 2.855 PAPP, 1.12 PPG), Schumaker (.005 WAR per game, 3.05 PAPP, .63 PPG), and Molina (2.71 PAPP, .99 PPG, .028 WAR per game).

As expected, the Phillies have the much better starting pitching. However, I still found it a little shocking just how much better is. The Cardinals' lineup does have a better WAR, and Plate Appearances per Positive play, but the Phillies have slightly better pop, with a better Production per Game. The bullpen situation is a little weird too, with the Cardinals having a much better WAR (perhaps slightly skewed by Edwin Jackson), but the Phillies have a much better Pitching Efficiency. All said, most of the numbers lean toward the Phillies, so I am sticking with the Phillies for this series.

Why Didn't the Astros move these guys?

The pitiful Astros have been involved in 4 major trades (and another substantial  one in trading Jeff Keppinger to the Giants this year) in the past 2 seasons, all at the deadline. Last year, they dumped both Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman for prospects, rather obvious moves. This year they traded Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn, both rather young players, for lots of good prospects. However, I was really surprised they didn't make more moves. I am thinking of 3 guys in particular. Firstly Wandy Rodriquez is making 7 million dollars this season and will make 10 million next year. He has a WAR of 2.1, giving him a WASP (this season) of around 3300 (making him over the Halladay Standard. He is also 32 years old. There are/were teams in the hunt that needed starting pitching (there were rumors about Wandy going to the Yankees, but it never materialized). There is really no excuse for the Astros not moving him for prospects. Similarly, Outfielder/First baseman Carlos Lee should have been moved, and was not. He is in the middle of an absurd 100 million dollar contract, and is making 18.5 million dollars. Even with his 4.4 WAR, he still has a WASP of 4204. His 475 OOP (39 SOOP) and 1.14 PPG (16228 PPGS) are hardly worth the big salary (if you are unsure what any of these statistics mean, check the pages above) and he is 35. Surely someone could have used this guy and would have given up a couple of prospects and freed up money for the 'Stros. Starting pitcher Brett Myers is the third guy on this list. He is 31, has a WAR of just .6, and a salary of $ 7 million (10 million dollars next year). Holding anybody with a 11666 WASP when you are a rebuilding team is inexcusable. The Astros' management sure have provided some head scratchers.

Another Japanese Pitcher coming to the majors? Tsuyoshi Wada

With all the hype around Yu Darvish, another Japanese pitcher that has announced he may come to the States is being overlooked. Tsuyoshi Wada is a left-handed pitcher with a funky long delivery that hides the ball well. According to my Japanese baseball scout (okay, he is a twitter friend that is very knowledgeable about Japanese baseball, you can follow him @inter_ueno), he throws a fastball, curve, slider, forkball (been a while since I have seen one of those), and change-up and can control all his pitches. He is 30 years old, and in his career in Japan, he has a 1.17 WHIP, 3.37 ERA, 8.29K's per 9 innings, averages about 7 innings a start, and 3.5BB per 9 innings. This is certainly not Yu Darvish numbers, but solid numbers nevertheless. If you remember my article on Yu Darvish, and the Japanese metric we came up with by comparing Japanese pitchers' stats in Japan and the Majors, you remember that we subtract 30 strikeouts for a season's totals, add .086 to the WHIP, and .61 to the ERA. If he comes over to the States and is a starter, you can expect 184 strikeouts, (and regardless of starter or bullpen assignment) 1.256 WHIP, and 3.98 ERA. Max Scherzer is having a season slightly worse than that, and has a WAR of 2.2. A 2.2 WAR with a "Halladay Standard" WASP (see my page on WASP above) would be about 6.6 million a year. This is small enough that a lower tier team (as far as budget goes) can take a chance on him and try him as a number 2 starter. With Darvish and Wada, we will have more data for comparative metrics between Japanball and MLB.

How to build a bullpen

I have often lamented that many relievers are overpaid, such as Rivera, Soriano, etc. One could also look at someone like Joaquin Benoit of the Tigers, who had a couple of really nice years and then got a big contract, as he has a WASP of 4583. It seems that big contracts with relievers rarely work and are almost never efficient. There are a few exceptions, the biggest one that comes to mind is Scott Downs, who was given a pretty big contract by the LA Angels. Downs is making 5 million this year, giving him a WASP of 2272 (under the Halladay standard of 3000, see previous posts for explanations of the Halladay standard and WASP). Downs numbers are just sick, a 1.29 ERA, with a WHIP .958 (meaning he lets less than 1 runner on an inning!). He has given up just 7 earned runs all year! However, the best course of action in a bullpen seems to be to bring up players from the minors (as it pretty much is at every position). For example, as the Texas Rangers' closer, Neftali Feliz eats up only .5% of the teams salary. His WASP is a microscopic 304. As great as Scott Downs is, you can have a bullpen full of Neftalis for the same price. The trick is of course, finding people in your minors that can throw hard with command. Joe Smith (along with winning the most generic name contest) of the Cleveland Indians is another good example, he makes just $870,000 but has a WAR of 1.8, giving him a WASP of 483. Even the extremely inefficient Yankees have used this route as well, with David Robertson posting a stunning 135 WASP. There is another option for teams that struggle with development, the Jamey Wright option. Jamey Wright was a long time journey-man back of the rotation starter-turned reliever whose career looked over last year when he was released by the Indians. The Mariners quickly gobbled him up however, and have used him as a reliever. They are paying him less than a million dollars, and he is pitching quite well, posting an WAR of .8. This gives him a very nice WASP of 1125. This usually takes time though, and doesn't always work out (they must have good stuff, not great command won't hurt them as much), but its usually very low risk. Another success story is Kameron Loe of the Brewers. A failed starter for the Texas Rangers, Loe went to Japan for a couple of years and returned as a reliever, and he is turning in a solid 1562 WASP this season. Other ones, like Kerry Wood, have been less successful. I expect a similar move to the bullpen will happen to Dontrelle Willis in whatever team he ends up with next year (unless he decides to become an outfielder, since he is an excellent hitter).

So you have saved 600 have you? Mariano Rivera

Last night, Yankee's closer Mariano Rivera saved his 600th game. He did this around midnight Central time in Seattle, on a, bizarrely, failed Ichiro (I am really starting to question whether this season is just an aberration for Ichiro, he may be done) stolen base attempt, with little fanfare and no celebration. Rivera, who is now just 1 save behind all-time leader Trevor Hoffman, is still pitching great, with a 2.05 ERA, .930 WHIP, nearly a strikeout per inning pitched, only 1 walk per 9 innings, 21 RAR (Runs Above Replacement), and 3.1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement). For his career, Rivera has a 55.9 WAR (basically meaning he has single handedly won 60 games for the Yankees, when you add up all his accomplishments), and this doesn't even mention the post-season success. Saber-metrically, his career compares to Dennis Eckersley who compiled a 59 WAR in his career. However, it is quite silly to call (as I have been hearing lately) Rivera "the most valuable Yankee" or "greatest pitcher ever, as Greg Maddux had a WAR of nearly 100 for his career, and C.C. Sabathia more than doubles Rivera's WAR on the season with a 6.5. Relief pitchers, no matter how great, cannot be as valuable as good starting pitchers (this explains how Brandon League's, clearly having the better year, WAR is lower than Brandon Morrow's, who has struggled for the most part). As far as Rivera salary to performance (measured by WASP, which is discussed in previous postings here) he is well above (above is bad, below is good) the "Halladay Standard", posting a WASP of nearly 5000. But one could correctly make the point that the Yankees do not need to worry about efficiency because they are able to spend so much money. During his career, Rivera has made an eye popping $144 million and change. However, his career WASP is under the "Halladay Standard" of 3000 at 2585.51, so even for moneyball teams, Rivera would have been worth it. An obvious hall of famer, Rivera will become the all-time leader in saves with in the next few days, and its always fun seeing old guys do great

Grading the Chris Carpenter contract

The Cardinals announced this week that they were giving the 36 year old righty Chris Carpenter a 2 year $21 million extension. Giving multi year deals to players over 35, especially pitchers, is usually not advisable. This year he was making a mind numbing 15 million dollars, and is having a year that most people agree is not quite his best. However, there is nothing to complain about as he has given them over 200 innings, with a 3.75 ERA, 1.299 WHIP, and a 23 RAR. Just as far as the eyeball test goes, he doesn't appear to be losing it, and has posted a WAR of 2.6. However, because of his large salary, his WASP (Wins above replacement and salary per) is 5769, much too high. Seeing that he will make around 10.5 million dollars next year, an exact same WAR would give him a WASP over 4000 (what I call the "Halladay standard" is 3000, that should be the goal for "good", like a .280 BA or 4.00 ERA). His WAR dropped from 3.2 in 2010 to 2.6 in 2011, and if that happens again with his new contract, his WASP would be a disastrous 5250 (still lower than this year's).  Fox Sports wrote that this is "a good deal for both sides", I beg to differ.

How much should CJ Wilson make?

C.J. Wilson, the Left-handed Ace for the Texas Rangers, looks to be the top pitching free agent this season. He is expected to get really big money, and I want to take a look at how much he is worth statistically. I'll start by assuming that Roy Halladay is the standard for performance and pay (baseballplayerssalaries.com has him at "worth it", with a slightly better percentage of performance than team salary according to their metrics). He is making 20 million dollars this year with a RAR of 59 and a WAR of 6.5. This gives him a WASP of 3076. C.J. Wilson's WASP is currently 1562 (with a salary of $7.5 million and a WAR of 4.8). While WASP can't really help calculate the amount of years a player deserves (and that is a big sticking question in baseball, especially pitchers, because of guaranteed contracts), but using the Halladay standard on WASP, C.J Wilson is worth about twice as much as he is making. A $15 million dollar deal would be reasonable, remember that number when we get to the Winter Meetings.