So yeah. That happened. To cap off a great first round of postseason play, the Cardinals shock the Phillies, as Carpenter out-dueled Roy Halladay. The Phillies were my World Series pick, and statistically they were picked to win this series. The pitching match-ups were so stacked toward the Phillies. However, statistics are averages, and Cliff Lee pitched terrible, Roy Oswalt pitched terrible, and Edwin Jackson pitched amazingly. The Law of averages said this probably wouldn't happen, but the very unlikely happened. There really isn't any other way to explain it. The Phillies hitters were really unimpressive, and didn't successfully work counts and take pitches (only 3.5 pitches per plate appearances in game 5 with no walks). When you do that, you lose virtually every time. Ryan Howard did nothing in the last 3 games, and Pence, Polanco, Ibanez, and Ruiz all underperformed (and Ruiz and Ibanez were rated really low, not much were expected from them). The Cardinals bullpen, once considered a problem, performed very solid. Despite battling injuries Schumaker proved to be one of the best hitters in the series, and was pretty lowly rated. Just a goofy series, and it proved just about anything can happen in a 5 game series.
Pre-Statistics picks: 3-1
Statistic Picks: 0-4
Teams with higher payroll: 2-2
Interesting note: none of the top 9 payroll teams made it past the first round. The Tigers, 10th highest payroll, have the highest payroll out of teams remaining.
Showing posts with label NLDS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NLDS. Show all posts
Friday, October 7, 2011
Series Review: Diamondbacks vs Brewers
If you remember, I had the Brewers winning before statistics, and then picked the Diamondbacks to win the series after the statistics. I said in the article that the numbers didn't pick a clear winner, but since the Diamondbacks had the better lineup (which sort of surprised me, and they had equal starting pitching), I leaned towards them. It seems that I should have stuck with the Brewers. This was a very close, exciting series with the exclamation mark put on by a walk-off hit in the 10th inning by Morgan in game 5. Perhaps the biggest tilt in the Brewers favor was the Gallardo/Kennedy match-up. Kennedy was a slightly better pitcher this year says the numbers, yet Gallardo outdueled him in the series (4.26 ERA for Kennedy, and 1.29 for Gallardo in the series). The Brewers had the better bullpen, and it showed. For the Diamondbacks, Putz was pretty mediocre and gave up the series winning hit, Ziegler was awful, Hernandez was alright, while Shaw was really good. For the Brewers, everyone was pretty much lights out, even Axford was good overall. When looking at the lineups, the first thing you notice is that Ryan Braun hit out of his mind (4 doubles, with OBP of over .500) He even out performed his awesome statistics. Fielder had a key homer in game 1, and walked a few times. Surprises were Betancourt and Hairston, with low statistical ratings but huge series's. This more than made up for Rickie Weeks' lackluster series. Arizona's lineup didn't do too bad, other than Parra was pretty miserable (even with a good performance in game 5).The Brewers had better pitching overall, in both starters and bullpen. That is why they won the series.
Pre-Statistics picks: 3-0
Statistic picks: 0-3
Teams with bigger payroll: 2-1
Pre-Statistics picks: 3-0
Statistic picks: 0-3
Teams with bigger payroll: 2-1
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Playoff Preview: Phillies versus Cardinals
I picked the Phillies to win the World Series, so of course I have them winning the series before statistics.
Everyone expects the Phillies to use this rotation: Halladay (.23 WAR per start, -2.75 PE), Lee (.22 WAR per Start, -3.52 PE) , Hamels (-2.33 PE, .17 WAR per start), and Oswalt (2.01 PE, .06 WAR per start). Their lineup should look like this (in no particular order): Victorino (.04 WAR a game, 2.5 PAPP, 1.47 PPG), Ibanez (1.2 PPG, negative WAR, 3.6 PAPP), Pence (.04 WAR a game, 1.44 PPG, 2.32 PAPP), Ruiz (.02 WAR per game, .72 PPG, 2.72 PAPP), Howard (.017 WAR per game, 2.58 PAPP, 1.53 PPG), Utley (.032 WAR per game, 2.79 PAPP, 1.17 PPG), Rollins (.025 WAR per game, 2.56 PAPP, 1.36 PPG), and Valdez (Negative WAR, 3.47 PAPP, .74 PPG). Madson (-3.08 PE, 1.7 WAR), Lidge (.3 WAR, -5.92 PE), Worley (-1.51 PE, 2.5 WAR), Stutes (-1.14 PE, 0 WAR), Bastardo (-5.83 PE, .7 WAR), Kendrick (.4 WAR, 2.29 PE), Blanton (2.45 PE, .5 WAR), Herndon (-.6 WAR, 1.16 PE), and Schwimer (-.1 WAR, .18 PE) should round out their bullpen.
For the Cardinals, the starting rotation should look like: Carpenter (.11 WAR per Start, .07 PE), Lohse (.083 WAR per start, 1.66 PE), Garcia (.028 WAR per start, .34 PE), and Westbrook (3.91 PE, Negative WAR). Their bullpen maps out with these guys: Rhodes (2.95 PE, -.6 WAR), Rzepczynski (1 WAR, -2.07 PE), Dotel (-4.04 PE, .9 WAR), Jackson (1.38 PE, 3.8 WAR), Salas (-3.93 PE, 1 WAR), Mclellen (3.23 PE, negative WAR), Motte (-3.15 PE, 1.6 WAR), and Boggs (.3 WAR, .43 PE). They will probably run out this lineup (in no order): Jay (.01 WAR per game, 2.92 PAPP, .63 PPG), Berkman (.036 WAR per game, 1.5 PPG, 2.21 PAPP) , Holliday (.033 WAR per game, 1.48 PPG, 2.4 PAPP), Pujols (.037 WAR per game, 2.33 PAPP, 1.7 PPG), Freese (1.1 PPG, .019 WAR per game, 2.71 PAPP), Furcal (.028 WAR per game, 2.855 PAPP, 1.12 PPG), Schumaker (.005 WAR per game, 3.05 PAPP, .63 PPG), and Molina (2.71 PAPP, .99 PPG, .028 WAR per game).
As expected, the Phillies have the much better starting pitching. However, I still found it a little shocking just how much better is. The Cardinals' lineup does have a better WAR, and Plate Appearances per Positive play, but the Phillies have slightly better pop, with a better Production per Game. The bullpen situation is a little weird too, with the Cardinals having a much better WAR (perhaps slightly skewed by Edwin Jackson), but the Phillies have a much better Pitching Efficiency. All said, most of the numbers lean toward the Phillies, so I am sticking with the Phillies for this series.
Everyone expects the Phillies to use this rotation: Halladay (.23 WAR per start, -2.75 PE), Lee (.22 WAR per Start, -3.52 PE) , Hamels (-2.33 PE, .17 WAR per start), and Oswalt (2.01 PE, .06 WAR per start). Their lineup should look like this (in no particular order): Victorino (.04 WAR a game, 2.5 PAPP, 1.47 PPG), Ibanez (1.2 PPG, negative WAR, 3.6 PAPP), Pence (.04 WAR a game, 1.44 PPG, 2.32 PAPP), Ruiz (.02 WAR per game, .72 PPG, 2.72 PAPP), Howard (.017 WAR per game, 2.58 PAPP, 1.53 PPG), Utley (.032 WAR per game, 2.79 PAPP, 1.17 PPG), Rollins (.025 WAR per game, 2.56 PAPP, 1.36 PPG), and Valdez (Negative WAR, 3.47 PAPP, .74 PPG). Madson (-3.08 PE, 1.7 WAR), Lidge (.3 WAR, -5.92 PE), Worley (-1.51 PE, 2.5 WAR), Stutes (-1.14 PE, 0 WAR), Bastardo (-5.83 PE, .7 WAR), Kendrick (.4 WAR, 2.29 PE), Blanton (2.45 PE, .5 WAR), Herndon (-.6 WAR, 1.16 PE), and Schwimer (-.1 WAR, .18 PE) should round out their bullpen.
For the Cardinals, the starting rotation should look like: Carpenter (.11 WAR per Start, .07 PE), Lohse (.083 WAR per start, 1.66 PE), Garcia (.028 WAR per start, .34 PE), and Westbrook (3.91 PE, Negative WAR). Their bullpen maps out with these guys: Rhodes (2.95 PE, -.6 WAR), Rzepczynski (1 WAR, -2.07 PE), Dotel (-4.04 PE, .9 WAR), Jackson (1.38 PE, 3.8 WAR), Salas (-3.93 PE, 1 WAR), Mclellen (3.23 PE, negative WAR), Motte (-3.15 PE, 1.6 WAR), and Boggs (.3 WAR, .43 PE). They will probably run out this lineup (in no order): Jay (.01 WAR per game, 2.92 PAPP, .63 PPG), Berkman (.036 WAR per game, 1.5 PPG, 2.21 PAPP) , Holliday (.033 WAR per game, 1.48 PPG, 2.4 PAPP), Pujols (.037 WAR per game, 2.33 PAPP, 1.7 PPG), Freese (1.1 PPG, .019 WAR per game, 2.71 PAPP), Furcal (.028 WAR per game, 2.855 PAPP, 1.12 PPG), Schumaker (.005 WAR per game, 3.05 PAPP, .63 PPG), and Molina (2.71 PAPP, .99 PPG, .028 WAR per game).
As expected, the Phillies have the much better starting pitching. However, I still found it a little shocking just how much better is. The Cardinals' lineup does have a better WAR, and Plate Appearances per Positive play, but the Phillies have slightly better pop, with a better Production per Game. The bullpen situation is a little weird too, with the Cardinals having a much better WAR (perhaps slightly skewed by Edwin Jackson), but the Phillies have a much better Pitching Efficiency. All said, most of the numbers lean toward the Phillies, so I am sticking with the Phillies for this series.
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Playoff Preview: The Brewers and Diamondbacks
The playoffs are here and it took the most exciting night in recent baseball history to get here. So what I am going to do in my playoff previews is reveal my biases (say who I would pick before looking at the numbers), then use the same numbers I use in other articles to grade players to predict a winner. To be clear, without the numbers, I predict a Rangers/Phillies World Series, with the Phillies winning in 5 games. In this series, I think the Brewers pitching is better, and cancels out similar lineups, so I have the Brewers. But here we go:
I expect the Brewers to use Gallardo (.08 WAR a start, -1.85 PE), Grienke (-3.21 PE, .056 WAR per start), Marcum (-.11 PE, .1 WAR a start), and Wolf (1.78 PE, .1 WAR a star) as the starting pitchers. Their bullpen will probably include Saito (.2 WAR, -2.23 PE), Rodriquez (-3.48 PE, 1.4 WAR), Axford (-5.22 PE, 1.8 WAR), Loe (-.62 PE, 1.2 WAR), Hawkins (1.17 PE, .7 WAR) De La Cruz (.1 WAR, -.23 PE), Narveson (1.5 WAR, 1.36 PE), and Dillard (-1.01 PE, .3 WAR). Their lineup will look something like this: (in no order) Morgan (.018 WAR per game, 2.9 PAPP, .97 PPG), Braun (2.07 PAPP, .05 WAR per game, 1.9 PPG), Hart (2.52 PAPP, .03 WAR per game, 1.33 PPG), Lucroy (.003 WAR per game, 3.066 PAPP, .84 PPG), Fielder (1.52 PPG, .03 WAR per game, 2.24 PAPP), Weeks (.025 War per game, 2.6 PAPP, 1.3 PPG), Betancourt (.007 WAR per game, .91 PPG, 3.43 PAPP), and McGehee (3.38 PAPP, negative war, .82 PPG).
The Diamondbacks will probably use Kennedy (.167 WAR per start, -1.84 PE), Saunders (2.83 PE, .079 WAR per start), Hudson (.35 PE, .076 WAR per start) , and Collmenter (.1 WAR per start, .95 PE) as starters. Their lineup will look something like this (in no particular order): Upton (.027 WAR per game, 1.55 PPG, 2.46 PAPP), Young (.032 WAR per game, 1.3 PPG, 2.66 PAPP), Parra (2.52 PAPP, .013 WAR per game, .88 PPG), Goldschmidt (.002 WAR per game, 1.38 PPG, 2.47 PAPP) , Hill (2.67 PAPP, 1.41 PPG, .053 WAR per game), Bloomquist (2.95 PAPP, .97 PPG, Negative WAR), Roberts (3.1 PAPP, 1.32 PPG, .024 WAR per game), and Montero (.033 WAR per game, 1.21 PPG, 2.71 PAPP). Their bullpen will include Zeigler (1.2 WAR, -.98 PE), Putz (-4.48 PE, 1.7 WAR), Hernandez (-3.59 PE, 1.3 WAR), Paterson (-1.1 PE, .3 WAR), Owings (.89 PE, .1 WAR), Miley (2.88 PE, .2 WAR) and Shaw (.2 WAR, -1.01 PE).
As far as starting pitchers go, the Diamondbacks have a better WAR, while the Brewers have the better Pitching Efficiency. The Brewers have the better bullpen in both Pitching efficiency and WAR. The Diamondbacks actually have the better lineup in all 3 categories used above. Perhaps this is disappointing because the statistics don't seem to pick a winner in this series. However, the stats clearly show that it is the Diamondbacks, not the Brewers that have the better lineup, and that makes me pick the Diamondbacks post-numbers.
I expect the Brewers to use Gallardo (.08 WAR a start, -1.85 PE), Grienke (-3.21 PE, .056 WAR per start), Marcum (-.11 PE, .1 WAR a start), and Wolf (1.78 PE, .1 WAR a star) as the starting pitchers. Their bullpen will probably include Saito (.2 WAR, -2.23 PE), Rodriquez (-3.48 PE, 1.4 WAR), Axford (-5.22 PE, 1.8 WAR), Loe (-.62 PE, 1.2 WAR), Hawkins (1.17 PE, .7 WAR) De La Cruz (.1 WAR, -.23 PE), Narveson (1.5 WAR, 1.36 PE), and Dillard (-1.01 PE, .3 WAR). Their lineup will look something like this: (in no order) Morgan (.018 WAR per game, 2.9 PAPP, .97 PPG), Braun (2.07 PAPP, .05 WAR per game, 1.9 PPG), Hart (2.52 PAPP, .03 WAR per game, 1.33 PPG), Lucroy (.003 WAR per game, 3.066 PAPP, .84 PPG), Fielder (1.52 PPG, .03 WAR per game, 2.24 PAPP), Weeks (.025 War per game, 2.6 PAPP, 1.3 PPG), Betancourt (.007 WAR per game, .91 PPG, 3.43 PAPP), and McGehee (3.38 PAPP, negative war, .82 PPG).
The Diamondbacks will probably use Kennedy (.167 WAR per start, -1.84 PE), Saunders (2.83 PE, .079 WAR per start), Hudson (.35 PE, .076 WAR per start) , and Collmenter (.1 WAR per start, .95 PE) as starters. Their lineup will look something like this (in no particular order): Upton (.027 WAR per game, 1.55 PPG, 2.46 PAPP), Young (.032 WAR per game, 1.3 PPG, 2.66 PAPP), Parra (2.52 PAPP, .013 WAR per game, .88 PPG), Goldschmidt (.002 WAR per game, 1.38 PPG, 2.47 PAPP) , Hill (2.67 PAPP, 1.41 PPG, .053 WAR per game), Bloomquist (2.95 PAPP, .97 PPG, Negative WAR), Roberts (3.1 PAPP, 1.32 PPG, .024 WAR per game), and Montero (.033 WAR per game, 1.21 PPG, 2.71 PAPP). Their bullpen will include Zeigler (1.2 WAR, -.98 PE), Putz (-4.48 PE, 1.7 WAR), Hernandez (-3.59 PE, 1.3 WAR), Paterson (-1.1 PE, .3 WAR), Owings (.89 PE, .1 WAR), Miley (2.88 PE, .2 WAR) and Shaw (.2 WAR, -1.01 PE).
As far as starting pitchers go, the Diamondbacks have a better WAR, while the Brewers have the better Pitching Efficiency. The Brewers have the better bullpen in both Pitching efficiency and WAR. The Diamondbacks actually have the better lineup in all 3 categories used above. Perhaps this is disappointing because the statistics don't seem to pick a winner in this series. However, the stats clearly show that it is the Diamondbacks, not the Brewers that have the better lineup, and that makes me pick the Diamondbacks post-numbers.
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