Free Agent Fantasy Team Update: Jason Grilli's Dominance

This time's Free Agent Fantasy Team Update contains a lot of roster moves, yet again.

I released J.C. Romero, who was on the MiLB DL and signed Randy Ruiz to take his place on the MiLB roster. I change Kevin Slowey's designation from SP to RP, as the Marlins have moved him to the bullpen. Roy Oswalt and Brian Bogusevic were promoted to the big league team, both get paid 234,240 dollars, unless something else is announced. Travis Ishikawa was promoted by the Orioles, but didn't play well and was quickly designated, so I just released him and won't take his numbers. Eric Chavez also goes to the big league team, coming off the DL. David Ross to the 7 day DL then the 60 day DL, so he goes to the inactive part of team and is a release candidate. Thomas Neal was optioned to minors so goes to minor league team, as does Melky Cabrera, who was placed on the 15 day DL. MLB team should be at 24. Hisanori Takahashi was traded from the Cubs to the Rockies, but will remain in AAA. It doesn't change his status on my team. I also signed Ben Francisco to fill out my minor league/inactive roster.

Since most teams have played about 81 games:

13.8 fWAR, 37.614 wins, 43.39 losses

14.2 bWAR, 38.014 wins, 42.99 losses

12.2 WARP, 38.12 wins, 42.88 losses

-.5 WAA, 40 wins, 41 losses

Yet again, WAA likes me the best, but I have now fallen below .500 according to all 4 metrics. WARP actually likes me more than the baseball reference WAR, which is a little strange considering WAA also comes from Baseball Reference (but I think comes from one of the biggest flaws in positional player WAR, as fielding and baserunning are weighed by average and the batting is weighed by replacement).

Jason Grilli was somewhat of an after thought signing for my team, just an attempt to use some extra money I had as a late signing and to make sure I had guaranteed bullpen depth. He has clearly been worth the money and has been one of the league's elite bullpen pitchers, proving that the good 2010-2011 seasons were no fluke. Grilli was a top prospect at the turn of the century, but he bounced around the league, with large inconsistencies.

For sake of comparison, let's look at Grilli's 2009 with the Rockies, where he was missing bats, but walking way too many hitters and had an ERA over 6, which even after a good 2008, ended his time as a member of the Rockies, as he was moved to the Rangers.

Here is Grilli so far in 2013:

He is a pure 2 pitch pitcher, and unless you believe the occasional changeup tag, this seems to be what he has been for virtually the whole Pitch F/X era (it seems that he used to throw a curve). This is a pretty dramatic change for their to be no real pitch usage changes. He has went from an arm side pitcher to a glove side pitcher, and is actually throwing the ball higher than he was before. Strangely, his average velocity of all pitches has stayed the same because he is throwing his fastball harder, yet his slider has lost velocity. Your guess is as good as mine as to how that it is possible.

There isn't a major release point change other than he is releasing the ball a little lower now, something that doesn't see to be unusual as a pitcher gets older. The location change, along with the fastball velocity uptick, seems to be why Grilli has improved. He isn't afraid to go high with the plus fastball and work on the other side of the plate.

Mike Leake Scouting Report

With reports of the Reds re-signing Jonathan Broxton, reporter John Fay believes that it will be easy for the Reds to move Mike Leake, as this most likely signals that Aroldis Chapman is finally moving to the rotation. Fay believes that Leake still has decent trade value despite having a rough season.

When you actually look at Mike Leake's advanced metrics, he was really no different in 2012:

2010: 115 FIP -, 104 xFIP -, 4.33 SIERA

2011: 108 FIP -, 95 xFIP, 3.76 SIERA

2012: 111 FIP -, 98 xFIP, 4.01 SIERA

Along with his career ERA - of 106, it appears that Leake is a slightly below average starter. It does seem, if his xFIP and SIERA are any indications, that he has some pretty major home run issues and would benefit from a more pitcher friendly park. The Reds' park has a 107 park factor over the last 3 years, and Leake has a career 1.26 HR/9IP and 14.6 HR/FB %, certainly supporting that point. Since the HR/FB % spiked in 2012, it made his ERA worse and got him left off of the playoff roster. When Johnny Cueto injured himself in the first start of the post-season, Leake was added to the roster and started game 4. At the Great American Ballpark against the Giants, the start didn't go well, as Leake gave up a homer on the 2nd pitch of the game and gave up 5 runs in 4.1 innings, striking out just one and walking 2 (2 homers in all).

Leake was drafted 10th overall by the Reds in 2009 out of Arizona State as an advanced pitcher that didn't have a high ceiling, but didn't need to pitch in the minors either (making his MLB debut before his MiLB debut, and pitching in just 2 MiLB games so far). The 25 year old right-hander's stuff is certainly below average, with an average fastball under 90 MPH, using more cutters and sinkers than 4-seam fastballs. It seems that he is relying less and less on his slider that averages a little more than 81 MPH (dropping from nearly 18% usage to 8-9% usage in 2012), along with a change and a (not slow) curve. In going back and reading old scouting reports, it seems that it was unclear as to what was his best pitch. His sinker is really similar in velocity to pitchers like David Pauley, Wandy Rodriguez, and Ian Kennedy. The horizontal movement on it is similar to those like Cliff Lee, Jarrod Washburn, and Ryan Vogelsong. Vertically, his sinker breaks a lot like the sinkers of Roy Halladay and Jerome Williams. His cutter breaks horizontally like former teammate's Travis Wood and the Houston Astros' Lucas Harrell. Vertically, it is like Matt Harrison's and Chris Carpenter's. These are some pretty good names. The curve breaks like the curves of Stephen Strasburg and A.J. Griffin (two curves I like) horizontally, and Anibal Sanchez, Brandon McCarthy, and Paul Maholm vertically. The slider's horizontal movement is similar to Zach Greinke and Jake Arrieta and vertically like Ricky Nolasco, Brandon Beachy, and Johnny Cueto. His change is also similar to Beachy horizontally, as well as Gil Meche and John Danks. Vertically, it is like Barry Zito's and Roy Oswalt's.

Just from times I have seen him, it seems that his sinker occasionally drifts up and that is why he gives up so many homers. The lack of stuff makes the occasional mistake more costly. When he throws it down and away at the bottom of the strikezone against righties, it is a really nice pitch. However, when it gets up, it is straight and pretty hittable. Because of his stuff and lack of a real 4-seamer, he really can't live high in the zone, though he sometimes does (ineffectively), which limits his ability to move the hitters eyes and makes him less dangerous when it comes to missing bats (which is one of the reasons that his strikeout totals are so low). The closest he comes to throwing a pitch high is when he throws his cutter (to right-handed hitters especially) in the somewhat middle of the plate (height-wise, it usually stays off the plate, and even though the velocity is usually a little lower, it seems like a less hittable pitch). It seems that he would rather go away from both lefties and righties, not wanting to go inside.
The slider is somewhat of a frisbee slider, almost knuckling with some pretty soft (but dramatic and sweeping) break to the left-handed batters box (it is so soft that Pitch F/X often confuses it for the curves when it dips to 80 MPH or lower). His curveball is a pretty hard curveball that drops quickly without big loop.

There is a little evidence from his overall release point chart that he has raised his release point slightly since coming into the Majors, but from looking at a bunch of individual game date, it seems he has actually just been more consistent (something you would expect to see as a pitcher matures and develops. An alternative explanation would be, something I saw in at least one report, that he used to occasionally drop his arm angle, whether unintentional or intentional. He could simply no longer be doing this, which would make the release point data pretty noisy). Because he is "just" 6 foot tall, he doesn't quite get the downward plane that most pitchers do (although he releases the ball higher than Johnny Cueto) because he lets go of the ball below 6 feet high.

Known for his pitchability, Leake doesn't discriminate when it comes to who he throws his cutter to, and still throws his change to righties about 6% of the time (just short of half the time he throws it to lefties). If he has a pitch he really likes to go to for a strikeout, it is the slider against both lefties and righties. Interestingly, he throws the curve more against lefties than he does against righties. It is the only pitch that he throws for strikes less than 60 % of the time, with the cutter being the pitch he throws for strikes the most (perhaps the reason that there isn't much variation when he throws it, throwing it somewhere around 20-24% of the time regardless of the situation). The slider, which makes sense considering that he throws it so much two strikes, is the only pitch he gets many whiffs with. He gives up more contact than league average and gets far less swings and misses than average. So his game has to be weak pop-ups (it isn't) or ground-balls (48.9 GB % in his career, very solid). This is why he throws so many sinkers and cutters (his slider also gets a lot of ground-balls). These pitches have also helped him have basically no platoon splits, about equally effective against both lefties and righties.

So far, Leake has not reached 200 innings in a season, setting a career high in 2012 with a 179. To be a valuable mid-rotation starter, one needs to be a good innings eater, something Leake has not been so far. He was put on the DL in 2010 thanks to shoulder fatigue, but I am not convinced that is something to be concerned about. It also doesn't look he wears down a the end of the year, at least as far as effectiveness goes. At his age, I think his new team has to let him really eat up innings in 2013. As mentioned above, the hitter friendly Great American Ballpark has really hurt Leake, as he has an ERA of almost a full run higher at home in his career. One of the less friendly home run parks would make Leake a significantly better pitcher. Especially if the team has a good infield (which would seem to be what he had with the Reds) that would turn a lot of Leake's ground-balls into outs. I think he can be a guy in the middle of the rotation and pitch at a league average rate with a new team. He is first year arbitration eligible this off-season, and according to MLB Trade Rumors, he is projected to make 2.9 million for 2013 (not to mention two more years of control after that). That is a bargain for a middle of the rotation pitcher, especially considering what Scott Feldman got (6 million), an injured Scott Baker (5.5 million) got, and especially what Jeremy Guthrie got (3 guaranteed years for 20 million. This doesn't mention that Bartolo Colon got 3 million and he is coming off a suspension and is 39). I think Leake has quite a bit of trade value (even if he is a slightly below average pitcher because of his lack of stuff) and the Reds should get a good package for him.

Scouting Reports on the Midland Rockhounds and Frisco Roughriders

I went and saw the Frisco Roughriders (Rangers AA) play against the Midland Rockhounds (Athletics AA) play on Tuesday June 12th. It was a fun 14 inning game, on to the scouting reports:

Midland

Connor Crumbliss was the lead-off hitter for Midland and the small 5'8 170 player was what you want in your basic lead-off hitter. He had long at-bats. He was fooled on a 2-1 slider and fouled it in his first at-bat. He ended up walking though, laying off a high fastball. He had another long at-bat, where he struck out chasing a breaker. The 3rd time he worked a full count before fouling off a low 95 MPH fastball and then walked. He also had another walk. The patience is great, but he is so small that he certainly doesn't project to hit for much power, which is a problem if he is a corner outfielder. Anthony Aliotti chased a curve in the dirt to strikeout the first time, and then took 2 fastballs for strikes in his 2nd at-bat before meekly grounding out. Michael Choice is a big man with a big hack. He got jammed for an infield fly-ball in his first plate appearances. He also drove a ball in the gap and had another line drive for a single. He looks like a guy who will hit for a ton of power but swing and miss a lot. Jeremy Barfield (i.e. Baseclogger on Twitter) hit the ball pretty hard too, as he hit a fastball to reasonably deep left field after being late on 2. He hit another one hard to center field. In left field, he made a horrible read, but he has a good arm and can run too. I really like him, especially if his exploits out in the field are usually better than what I saw. Josh Horton had some mixed results out in 2nd before being taken out early for some reason.



Murphy Smith was the starter for Midland and he had weirdly inconsistent velocity. He was sitting 88-89 MPH at times, and then 92-93 MPH at other times. Obviously, he is much more interesting with the latter velocity. At first, I thought he just had a 2 seamer to go along with the 4-seamer, but it didn't look like there was any difference in the movement. He was really lacking in command of the pitch too, with a lot of balls. He also had a rare 86 MPH slider. That is not much speed differential. He was really fastball heavy, but he also threw a 79-81 MPH changeup. Both of his breaking pitches have some dip, but it doesn't seem like he can throw them for strikes. He was getting a lot of grounders, including one that was smoked for a run. He had a dominant 1-2-3 inning to the top of the order in the 3rd where he got 2 foul infield outs along with a comebacker. That was followed by a rough 4th inning with some bad luck and bad defense (some of it by himself).
James Simmons came in as a reliever and was throwing 89-91 MPH with a wild 78 MPH breaking ball. Paul Smyth immediately gave up a line drive shot by Mike Olt, but it was turned into an out. He was throwing 91 MPH with a 83 MPH slider. He walked 2 in a row and has sort of a low arm slot.
Arnold Leon wasn't showing much command but was 95-96 MPH on his fastball. Mike Olt was late 3 times in a row on it. He then struck out Profar on a slow curve, followed by another strikeout and another strikeout. He was downright dominant. He had a 82 MPH breaking pitch that was pretty wild. He has big league stuff, it is pretty obvious.

Carlos Hernandez had a 77 MPH pitch that moved like a 2-seamer, was probably a change. He once hit 84 MPH on a pitch that was straight, but the change looking pitch was his feature pitch, and it has some movement and deception and reached 80 MPH. He also showed a 69-71 MPH curve.



Frisco:
Roy Oswalt pitched, and you can find my analysis of him here. I will also have something on Frisco's Justin Grimm on fantasycpr.com.

Fabio Castillo came out of the bullpen and started out wild at 91-92 MPH. He then got up to 93-94 MPH and got a weak grounder which he made a play on. He then reached 95 MPH with good movement but not much control. He finally broke out a breaking pitch, an 84 MPH slider with decent movement. He blew away Aliotti with a 93 MPH fastball and then got a swinging strike for a strikeout on a slider. He got a nasty strikeout on a swinging strike on a moving 92 MPH fastball down and in. He along with Midland's Leon has big league stuff if he can ever harness it.

For Frisco's lineup, Leury Garcia showed off some nice range at 2nd base. He was pitched inside in his first at-bat, and stole a base after reaching. He had a 1 pitch infield out in his 2nd at-bat. Jurickson Profar is the real super prospect on Frisco, so I didn't feel the need to write a lot about him. In his first at-bat, he got ahead 3-1 before a big whiff on a moving fastball. He ended up walking on an outside pitch. The next at-bat started with a couple of fouls to get him behind 0-2. He took 2 breaking pitches before fouling back to the catcher on a high fastball. He then had a long at-bat where he battled back from 0-2 to get to a full count and he ended up hitting a deep fly-ball. Defensively, he booted the only ball hit hard to him. He also did 1st baseman type splits on a ball thrown to him by the pitcher but he couldn't come up with a low throw.
Mike Olt hit a hard ground-ball for a double play. In the 4th, he got to a 2-2 count and chased a slider but fouled it off. He ended up hitting a hard ground-ball up the middle. He hit another really hard grounder. Defensively, he is exceptional at 3rd base. The talk is moving him to third because of Adrian Beltre anchoring down 3rd. That would be a real shame. He also runs okay. Chris McGuinness played 1st and made a really brutal play defensively. However, he absolutely smoked 2 balls offensively.
Engel Beltre was a guy that I was interested in seeing. He has always been really toolsy but hasn't matched it with success at the plate. In his first at-bat, he took outside/middle for strike 1 on a fastball. He fouled off the next pitch, an inside fastball was taken before he fouled off a breaking pitch. He then chased one in the dirt for a strikeout. In at-bat 2, he took a low fastball, fouled off one the other way that was in the zone before popping up another fastball to the pitcher in foul territory. The next at-bat ended quickly, he grounded into a fielder's choice. The next time, he got up 2-0 before taking a strike and then grounding out. In his final at-bat, he fouled a bunt off before grounding out to first.
Defensively, he took a really poor route but used his speed to get to a ball. He used his speed to get to another ball that an average speed player probably wouldn't have caught. He also flashed off a good arm, but had weird mechanics, making him inaccurate at times. He fell down as he threw a ball to home. His arm in the game didn't seem to be as good as it was in between innings, as weird as that sounds.

Wilfredo Boscan was wild. He walked the first hitter and was 89-92 MPH. He got a strikeout on a fastball and also showed a 76-79 MPH slider looking pitch. He fooled Choice with it to get a whiff. It is slow, but it doesn't look like a curve at all. It does provide some good speed differential. He got 2 double plays.

Joseph Ortiz is short, but it doesn't really matter. He throws 91-92 MPH with an 84-85 MPH slider with some good movements. He got a couple swings and misses and got Aliotti to strikeout swinging
Ryan Rodebaugh had a 88-91 MPH fastball with a 79-80 MPH breaker that he could throw for strikes. He had a lead-off walk but got Choice to chase in the dirt for a strikeout. He also mixed in a 73 MPH pitch to get a strikeout of Crumbliss. He got another strikeout on it on a check swing. Barfield had a long at-bat after taking 2 fastballs down the middle. He really earned that single. He got Luke Hughes to swing through for a strikeout. As he had to keep pitching, his velocity dipped and he gave up a lot of fouls, but his breaking stuff was still good.
Carlos Pimentel was an almost sneaky 91-92 MPH, touching 93. He walked Crumbliss, but also had a 81-82 MPH slider with some decent drop and late break. He couldn't throw strikes with it really, but he got some chases and whiffs with it. He had a lot of control issues, especially in his 2nd inning.

Scouting Notes on the Albuquerque Isotopes

I saw the Dodgers AAA affiliate (the Albuquerque Isotopes) play in Round Rock on June 2nd. I was there to see Roy Oswalt pitch, you can read my write up on his start here. I originally saw that the pitcher for the Isotopes was Fernando Nieve, a AAA veteran (parts of 8 different seasons in AAA) at 29 years old. I didn't start writing notes on him until I saw the radar gun give us some pretty interesting figures.

He was showing off an above average fastball at 91-04 MPH, hitting 95 MPH a few times. He blew a few of the younger hitters away, and one of the old hitters, Brad Nelson. He also murdered Nelson's bat in an earlier at-bat. He struck out 2 straight batters in the 2nd before giving up a double. He did give up a couple hard line drives that turned into outs. He had an okay slider at 84-85 MPH that fooled some hitters. He also threw it for some quality strikes. Mike Biannucci, a man of monster power, hit a homer on a slider that wasn't really bad, it was a ball down low. The only thing you could complain about it was that it was just kind of slow. He had some horrible luck in the 5th when two ground-balls got through. The line wasn't overly pretty or anything, but it was a quality start and there is something to be said about that in the PCL.
In 99 games (mostly relief appearances) in the Majors, Nieve had a 5.40 FIP and 4.58 SIERA (much closer to his ERA). His average velocity was 92.7 MPH. From what I saw, it looked like he could be a guy that could help a weak starting rotation on the back-end or perhaps be a long man or other reliever and be able to just throw all fastballs and add a couple MPH on his velocity.

Brian Cavazos-Galvez is a pretty young (25 years old is younger than league average) left fielder. He is really slow both in the field and on the bases, sort of surprising with his size. He has no real plate discipline, but has a good contact tool. He chased a low breaking pitch and hit it pretty hard, then did the same thing and hit a homer. He then struck out a very similar pitch to end the game.

Josh Fields had some brutal plays at first base. With his speed, he really has the lack of tools that one would guess a first baseman would have. He doesn't have the bat to make up for it though. He got ahead 3-1 in one at-bat only to chase a breaking ball (he ended up grounding out to end the at-bat).
Jeff Baisley is listed as a 3rd baseman, but played DH and looks more like a DH. It looked like he had a good eye until he chased some Aaron Heilman sliders. He has a weird looking swing where it looks like he is dipping like crazy. He is also pretty slow. Luis Cruz is a middle infielder with a good contact tool but the ball doesn't exactly jump off his bat. It didn't look like he has any power, it must be a PCL miracle that he has 5 homers this year. Tim Federowicz doesn't look like he is going to chase low pitches, but he was having problems with the high fastball. He obviously isn't much of a runner.

Out of the bullpen, 28 year old Derrick Loop pitched 2 innings. His fastball was anywhere from 85-90 MPH without much break on it. He finally broke out the breaking pitch in his 2nd inning of work, a 76 MPH pitch with some okay break. He gave up a hard liner to Matt Kata, an infield pop, a broken bat ground-ball, and got a double play despite having problems throwing strikes.

Kyle Kendrick: Arbitration

Kyle Kendrick has a 2.1 WAR in 5 seasons. The crazy thing about this is that he had a 2.1 WAR in 2007. He then turned around and had a -1.4 WAR in 2008, and in 2011, his WAR was 1.1 (he made 2.45 million in 2011, a decent WASP of 2227). He has a horrible career PE of 4.43 and 4.97 adjusted PE. In 2011, things were a little better with a 2.3 PE and a 3.63 adjusted PE (4.26 PE and 5.33 adjusted PE in 2007). The lack of strikeouts (4.14 K/9IP) is striking, and he got away with a low BABIP (.261) in 2011 and his FIP was 1.33 higher than his ERA. He is the rare pitcher that throws less than 60% strikes, and his career TR is a lowly 7.15. In 2011 it was better at 8.96, and 8.65 in 2007. This means that his "best" year might have actually been worse than 2011. There is plenty to suggest his 07 season was pretty lucky anyway, as his FIP was 1.07 higher than his ERA and his BABIP was well below league average and slight below career average at .281. Despite being a groundball pitcher (1.37 GB/FB), he still struggles with the long ball (1.2 HR/9IP). His career RE 24 is -15.51, meaning he has given up 15.51 runs more than an average pitcher would. Kyle Kendrick is like the guy who has 4 really successful brothers (Worley, Halladay, Lee, and Hamels) but still can't get a job, and lives with his parents. He isn't going to be worth the money he is going to get in arbitration but one would have to imagine it would be hard to dump him. If any organization attaches any value to Kendrick, they are overvaluing him, his "good" years were clearly fluky, as shown above.

Free Agent Watch: Roy Oswalt

"The Big 4" may be coming to an end (with no championships) as the Phillies have declined the option on Roy Oswalt's contract. In 11 career seasons, Oswalt has a 46.3 WAR, which is a 4.21 average, which is worth 12.6 million a year according to the Halladay Standard. 2011 was disappointing though, with a 1.7 WAR, worth just 5.1 million. In 2010 he had a 5.1 WAR, worth 15.3. This is a big range, and isn't all that helpful. In 2011, in just 139 innings, he had a TR of 10.85, nothing to sneeze at. The PE wasn't ideal at 1.76. In his career, he has a TR of 12.29, and a PE of -.46. Why the dropoff? He struck out less people in 2011, was unhealthy, and seemed to be slightly unlucky at a  .316 BABIP (his FIP was lower than his ERA though). In fact, Fangraphs has him at a 2.5 WAR, if he threw 200 innings at the same WAR ratio, he would have had a 3.6 WAR (worth 10.8 million), and a Baseball Reference WAR of 2.45 (worth 7.35 million). It depends on which WAR you trust. For the Phillies, it doesn't make a lot of sense to resign him. Especially because of the emergence of Vance Worley, who had a -1.49 PE, 2.8 WAR, and 11.05 TR in 2011. With that said, if you think he can stay healthy, Oswalt is a legitimate top of the rotation pitcher, and it would probably be unwise too say he is no longer one because of one year.

So What Happened to J.A. Happ?

The Houston Astros' starting pitcher J.A. Happ had the distinction of being one of the worst pitchers in the majors in 2011. He posted a -1.4 WAR in 28 starts. When looking at his past, we realize that this is really bizarre. In 2009, with the Phillies, he posted a 4.1 WAR. After being shipped to the Astros in the middle of the 2010, he put up a 1 WAR in 72 innings. So was 2011 a strange misnomer year or is this the new unimproved Happ. He is not even 30, so we will throw age being a major factor out. In 2009, he had a very solid for a starting pitcher .1 PE. His TR was a decent number but by no means great at 9.78. In 2011, he had a 1.74 PE, which is not good, but its not completely terrible for a starting pitcher. His TR was absolutely miserable, at a 6. TR tries to explain exactly what happened to a pitcher, while PE simply shows the pitchers' main results. He threw less strikes in 2011, and it led to a worse K/BB ratio. According to FanGraphs, he had a cutter he threw 15% of the time in 09. He did not throw this pitch in 2011. He also threw his curveball 3 times as much in 2011. He seems to be a slightly different pitcher than he was in 2009. There was not a big difference in FIP in 09 and his FIP in 2011 (4.33-4.64). The Astros defense clearly hurt him in 2011, while the Phillies' defense made him look a lot better than he actually was in 09 (this is also shown by the BABIP). There was also a huge difference in LOB % (20 % difference!) between the 2 years. For whatever reason (a slightly worse HR/9IP ratio in 11 could have contributed), he wasn't able to keep the runners on base from scoring. He was always a fly-ball pitcher, and I have a theory on fly-ball pitchers. The theory goes like this: unless you have a huge ballpark, if you have a fly-ball pitcher, trade him to your rival. He has always walked too many hitters, which makes his fly-ball pitching even worse. The stats seem to say that he is not quite as bad as he was in 2011, but he was not near as good as 2009 suggested. Playing for the terrible Astros won't help him either.

Series Review: Phillies vs Cardinals

So yeah. That happened. To cap off a great first round of postseason play, the Cardinals shock the Phillies, as Carpenter out-dueled Roy Halladay. The Phillies were my World Series pick, and statistically they were picked to win this series. The pitching match-ups were so stacked toward the Phillies. However, statistics are averages, and Cliff Lee pitched terrible, Roy Oswalt pitched terrible, and Edwin Jackson pitched amazingly. The Law of averages said this probably wouldn't happen, but the very unlikely happened. There really isn't any other way to explain it. The Phillies hitters were really unimpressive, and didn't successfully work counts and take pitches (only 3.5 pitches per plate appearances in game 5 with no walks). When you do that, you lose virtually every time. Ryan Howard did nothing in the last 3 games, and Pence, Polanco, Ibanez, and Ruiz all underperformed (and Ruiz and Ibanez were rated really low, not much were expected from them). The Cardinals bullpen, once considered a problem, performed very solid. Despite battling injuries Schumaker proved to be one of the best hitters in the series, and was pretty lowly rated. Just a goofy series, and it proved just about anything can happen in a 5 game series.

Pre-Statistics picks: 3-1
Statistic Picks: 0-4
Teams with higher payroll: 2-2
Interesting note: none of the top 9 payroll teams made it past the first round. The Tigers, 10th highest payroll, have the highest payroll out of teams remaining.

Playoff Preview: Phillies versus Cardinals

I picked the Phillies to win the World Series, so of course I have them winning the series before statistics.

Everyone expects the Phillies to use this rotation: Halladay (.23 WAR per start, -2.75 PE), Lee (.22 WAR per Start, -3.52 PE) , Hamels (-2.33 PE, .17 WAR per start), and Oswalt (2.01 PE, .06 WAR per start). Their lineup should look like this (in no particular order): Victorino (.04 WAR a game, 2.5 PAPP, 1.47 PPG), Ibanez (1.2 PPG, negative WAR, 3.6 PAPP), Pence (.04 WAR a game, 1.44 PPG, 2.32 PAPP), Ruiz (.02 WAR per game, .72 PPG, 2.72 PAPP), Howard (.017 WAR per game, 2.58 PAPP, 1.53 PPG), Utley (.032 WAR per game, 2.79 PAPP, 1.17 PPG), Rollins (.025 WAR per game, 2.56 PAPP, 1.36 PPG), and Valdez (Negative WAR, 3.47 PAPP, .74 PPG). Madson (-3.08 PE, 1.7 WAR), Lidge (.3 WAR, -5.92 PE), Worley (-1.51 PE, 2.5 WAR), Stutes (-1.14 PE, 0 WAR), Bastardo (-5.83 PE, .7 WAR), Kendrick (.4 WAR, 2.29 PE), Blanton (2.45 PE, .5 WAR), Herndon (-.6 WAR, 1.16 PE), and Schwimer (-.1 WAR, .18 PE) should round out their bullpen.

For the Cardinals, the starting rotation should look like: Carpenter (.11 WAR per Start, .07 PE), Lohse (.083 WAR per start, 1.66 PE), Garcia (.028 WAR per start, .34 PE), and Westbrook (3.91 PE, Negative WAR).  Their bullpen maps out with these guys: Rhodes (2.95 PE, -.6 WAR), Rzepczynski (1 WAR, -2.07 PE), Dotel (-4.04 PE, .9 WAR), Jackson (1.38 PE, 3.8 WAR), Salas (-3.93 PE, 1 WAR), Mclellen (3.23 PE, negative WAR), Motte (-3.15 PE, 1.6 WAR), and Boggs (.3 WAR, .43 PE). They will probably run out this lineup (in no order): Jay (.01 WAR per game, 2.92 PAPP, .63 PPG), Berkman (.036 WAR per game, 1.5 PPG, 2.21 PAPP) , Holliday (.033 WAR per game, 1.48 PPG, 2.4 PAPP), Pujols (.037 WAR per game, 2.33 PAPP, 1.7 PPG), Freese (1.1 PPG, .019 WAR per game, 2.71 PAPP), Furcal (.028 WAR per game, 2.855 PAPP, 1.12 PPG), Schumaker (.005 WAR per game, 3.05 PAPP, .63 PPG), and Molina (2.71 PAPP, .99 PPG, .028 WAR per game).

As expected, the Phillies have the much better starting pitching. However, I still found it a little shocking just how much better is. The Cardinals' lineup does have a better WAR, and Plate Appearances per Positive play, but the Phillies have slightly better pop, with a better Production per Game. The bullpen situation is a little weird too, with the Cardinals having a much better WAR (perhaps slightly skewed by Edwin Jackson), but the Phillies have a much better Pitching Efficiency. All said, most of the numbers lean toward the Phillies, so I am sticking with the Phillies for this series.

Why Didn't the Astros move these guys?

The pitiful Astros have been involved in 4 major trades (and another substantial  one in trading Jeff Keppinger to the Giants this year) in the past 2 seasons, all at the deadline. Last year, they dumped both Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman for prospects, rather obvious moves. This year they traded Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn, both rather young players, for lots of good prospects. However, I was really surprised they didn't make more moves. I am thinking of 3 guys in particular. Firstly Wandy Rodriquez is making 7 million dollars this season and will make 10 million next year. He has a WAR of 2.1, giving him a WASP (this season) of around 3300 (making him over the Halladay Standard. He is also 32 years old. There are/were teams in the hunt that needed starting pitching (there were rumors about Wandy going to the Yankees, but it never materialized). There is really no excuse for the Astros not moving him for prospects. Similarly, Outfielder/First baseman Carlos Lee should have been moved, and was not. He is in the middle of an absurd 100 million dollar contract, and is making 18.5 million dollars. Even with his 4.4 WAR, he still has a WASP of 4204. His 475 OOP (39 SOOP) and 1.14 PPG (16228 PPGS) are hardly worth the big salary (if you are unsure what any of these statistics mean, check the pages above) and he is 35. Surely someone could have used this guy and would have given up a couple of prospects and freed up money for the 'Stros. Starting pitcher Brett Myers is the third guy on this list. He is 31, has a WAR of just .6, and a salary of $ 7 million (10 million dollars next year). Holding anybody with a 11666 WASP when you are a rebuilding team is inexcusable. The Astros' management sure have provided some head scratchers.