Chris Resop: Effective Dragon?

According to recent reports out of Japan, the Chunichi Dragons of the NPB are interested in Athletics' reliever Chris Resop. Resop spent 2013 split between the A's AAA team and MLB team, pitching well for neither. Former KBO pitcher Brian Gordon had a 2.45 FIP on the same AAA team, and former NPB reliever Hideki Okajima had a 3.24 FIP on the team. Resop's was 4.66, striking out less than 18 % of batters and predictably struggling with homers in the hitter friendly PCL. In Oakland, he was worse, striking out even fewer batters in his 18 outings and struggling with walks. For his career, Resop has been a good example of a replacement level reliever (0.0 fWAR, .2rWAR, 1.0 WARP), pitching in MLB games in every year except 2009 since 2005, totalling 243.1 innings pitched.

Resop pitched has pitched in Japan before, in 2008 with the Tigers, but it didn't go well. He made 8 appearances with the Ichi-Gun team, four of them starts, and struck out just 6 of the 99 batters he faced, giving up 18 runs. In the Ni-Gun, he had better peripherals (21K/6 BB out of 84 batters faced), but still had an ERA over 5. So certainly statistically, it is a little curious why the Dragons would be interested in Resop. The Dragons have used three foreign pitchers in 2013, and they combined for a strikeout percentage of 14 % (Central League average is about 17.6 %), so they clearly need foreign pitchers who can miss bats next year (Daniel Cabrera will be back, Brad Bergesen will not be, and from what I have read, Warner Madrigal's status is still up in the air), but Resop has a history of not missing bats.

It was a year before Yahoo data was tracked by NPB Tracker, but Resop did pitch some in the Majors that season, and his average fastball out of the bullpen was 93.4 MPH. Using the roughly 1.5 MPH difference from starters and relievers that we see in the Majors, Resop's average fastball was probably about 92 MPH or lower in Japan, which is probably about 4 MPH better than a league average NPB starter. So it is not hard to see why he was attractive to the Tigers, he threw pretty hard, it just didn't translate to him missing any bats.

I couldn't find any video of him in Japan, so we will use MLB Pitch F/X data to evaluate Resop and see whether or not there are reasons to expect that he will be better in the NPB if given another chance.

Here is where he located his pitches, along with their velocities in 2013 with Oakland:

He is clearly a low ball pitcher, even though he is not extremely tall for a RHP in the Majors (listed at 6-3), he is taller than 9 of the 10 Dragons' 2013 leaders in IP (only the gigantic Daniel Cabrera is taller). Height does appear to be something NPB teams look for in foreign pitchers because of scarcity in their own countries. Stereotypes aside, the average Japanese male is 5-7, while the average American male is 5-10. The country of Japan also has just over a third of the amount of people that the United States has, so just by sheer probability, the United States, and thus the MLB, are likely to have more tall people to spare than Japan. We see this play out in the NPB's acquisitions of foreign hitters as well, as Japanese teams are much more likely to go after sluggers like Wladimir Balentien and Michael Abreu than go after speed and defense players. That doesn't mean there aren't some tall Japanese pitchers or big powerful Japanese sluggers, because there are. NPB teams just appear to feel that these roles are easier filled by foreign players, while speed and defense players, along with sidearming or "junkball" pitchers are easier to fill using the drafting of native players. The problem is, Resop doesn't appear to be a hard thrower anymore, falling under MLB average for reliever fastball velocity.

For reference, here is what his release point looks like in picture form:

Even though he gets the ball low, he doesn't seem to do a great job of using his height, as it seems that he isn't very upright at the time of release, perhaps having a bit of arm drag (though it could be overstated, as he still does an adequate job of staying upright). Here is what his release point in graph form looks like compared to the 2013 Dragons that have pitched in the Majors, using Pitch F/X data:

His release point is under 6 feet, but it is pretty close to the center of the plate, not coming too far out for hitters from the left side to pick up too easily.

For a more full look, here is a GIF of his delivery, and a home run on a low sinker:

Since I have only done the Pacific League when looking at the deliveries of NPB pitchers, we can't compare his deliveries to Dragons' pitchers, but we can flip through the deliveries of some of the pitchers in the NPB that he compares to. To me, he has a pretty simple delivery, coming mostly straight forward. He doesn't pause or hesitate, but it seems he is a little slow to get started. His front leg leads you to believe he is coming forward, but he holds his body back for just a split second. The delivery itself reminds me of the deliveries of Brian Wolfe, Ming-Chieh Hsu, and Yoshihiro Ito. Those are three different pitchers, as Wolfe is a command guy, Hsu is washed up and didn't miss many bats, and Ito walks more guys than league average, but misses much more bats than the other two. Because of Resop's strikeout history, he is closer to either Hsu or Wolfe. If the Dragons sign Resop and he pitches like Wolfe, they are thrilled, but the last time he was in Japan, he pitched like Hsu. His release point reminds me of Darrell Rasner's, though Rasner is more upright and more ideal (perhaps ironic since he just had Tommy John Surgery), who has started games in the Majors and has been a successful closer in the NPB.

For his career, Resop is mostly better against righties as you would expect, but he doesn't give up near as much power to left-handed batters. This may be randomness, but could also be because he keeps the ball away from lefties.
The only pitch he gets glove side is his slider, something he doesn't use a lot (in fact, this year was clearly the most he had ever used it). He also started using the changeup a lot more in 2013.

Perhaps the uptick in secondary pitch usage will allow him to be a successful starter again like he was in AAA in 2010, but I don't think the diminished fastball, along with the statistical eyesores can be ignored. He is someone that has been on NPB radars for a while, as he was also rumored to be heading to Japan before the 2013 season, but I don't quite see the value. The Dragons should look elsewhere, to someone who has a more defined role, or at the very least, has a longer history of missing bats. 

The CPBL hitters better than Manny Ramirez

Despite playing games for 23 years, the Chinese Professional Baseball League probably received the most notoriety in the United States for the exploits of Manny Ramirez with the EDA Rhinos.

Ramirez had a .422 OBP and .555 SLG in his 49 games, making him not only the most notable hitter in the league, but arguably the best as well.  He would go on to play 30 games for the Rangers' AAA affiliate Round Rock, and things didn't go well, as the power evaporated (.111 ISO) and he had a 82 wRC +, similar to his 84 wRC + in 17 games with the Oakland Athletics affiliate in 2012. Of course translations don't work perfectly, or even well at times, but it probably does speak to the talent level of the CPBL that Ramirez couldn't hit in AAA, but dominated the league in his half season. For this post, I found three hitters that had similar 2013 seasons (though they played the full season instead of the first half) to get a look at a few of the best hitters in the league. Like the majority of posts on this blog, it is from an American perspective, so the goal is to see whether or not any of them are MLB prospects. All three players are 27 years old, so they could be considered in the prime of their careers.

Yi-Chuan Lin

The 2013 Home Run derby winner, Lin had the exact same HR % and OBP as Manny Ramirez. Lin also outdid him in slugging percentage by .005. These statistics nearly match 2012's exactly (.419 OBP, .573 SLG). He had more groundouts than flyouts, though the ratio is closer to 1 in 2013 than in 2012. Obviously not much of a runner as a first baseman, he provides no real positional value, though it appears he played a couple of games at 3rd base.For each individual hitter, I GIF'd one of their swings on a home run:

When pitchers throw low and in on him, he can pull the ball with quite a bit of authority. However, he doesn't always have a power swing, and his extreme contact ways are not typical when scouting first basemen. He will cut down on his swing to make sure he puts the ball in play, even going down low and slapping the ball. I don't think that elite pitching would be able to blow the ball past him, but good breaking balls can make him chase and cause him to sacrifice all his power. Perhaps he doesn't have the elite power you want in a corner infielder because he doesn't look the part. If you saw him on a baseball field without seeing his numbers compared to other CPBL hitters, you wouldn't peg him as a power hitter, and at least in this case, I think the bias is warranted. Also, if a picture of Lin was shown to the Rangers before they signed Manny Ramirez and they were told that the two of them hit for the same power in Tawain, then they might not have signed him, or at least, they could have predicted that Manny would fail in AAA. So this is what Lin has stacked against him when getting evaluated by MLB scouts. He is a first baseman that has an offensive game of a solid second baseman or shortstop. He hits for a good average by relying on contact with an occasional home run. That is a skill set that has value, but not from the most power driven position in the MLB.

If Lin (or 2013 Manny) is the best the CPBL has to offer when it comes to power then the MLB isn't going to be looking to the league for powerful position players. So if there is a MLB prospect that is a position player, they have to establish being one by doing something other than hitting for power. It is going to have to come from being a high average hitter with positional value or by great speed or defense.

Kuo Hui Lo

His OBP was .014 points smaller, but he out slugged Ramirez by .010 points. Lo was once a minor leaguer in the United States, playing in the Mariners system from 2006-2011, reaching AA and holding his own (.335 OBP and .430 SLG in pitcher friendly league), but a horrible leg injury at home plate cost him the 2012 season and ended his MLB affiliated career. However, with the season he had in 2013, perhaps he will be back on MLB radars even though he is now 27 years old. Perhaps the biggest thing for him is that he played 89 games in a season and was able to play the field.

Lo had 8 assists defensively, playing all three outfield positions, but mainly centerfield this season. In the minors, he mainly played left field with mostly positive FRAAs, with 2008 being an exception.

He was a pretty extreme flyball hitter this year:

In the minors, the only time he hit more than 10 homers or had an Isolated Slugging over .200 was in the extremely hitter friendly environment of High Desert in 2009. Just by league averages that season, he wasn't overly impressive, but was close to some fringy big leaguers like Konrad Schmidt, Efren Navarro, J.B. Shuck, and Charlie Blackmon. He clearly has some occasional power that he brings into games, and despite not having huge size (he does after all, have to play in the middle of the outfield), he is 6-2 188, certainly big enough to be a big leaguer.

I don't love the swing, and that may be an obstacle for potential MLB teams. He dips his front shoulder, not giving him a smooth or quick swing path to inside pitches. It doesn't seem to take away from his power and he still has the reach and plate coverage to hit pitches outside well, but I think elite pitching would come inside on him and have success.

Hung-Yu Lin

Listed as a catcher, but appears to be mostly a DH, as he caught just 28 of the 97 games he played. Lin has less power than the two players above, slugging just .477 (4th best out of qualified hitters, which Ramirez wasn't because of lack of at-bats), but his OBP was .431, best in the CPBL.

This year, he was a groundball hitter for the first time in his career. While it doesn't look like Lin has great bat speed, he clearly has the strength and plate coverage to hit balls on the outside part of the plate with some authority.

The decider of Hung-Yu Lin's value will be his abilities behind the plate. While I can't speak intelligently about whether or not he is a good receiver, thrower, or even game caller, the fact that it seems he has mostly been a DH suggests that he isn't a plus catcher. This really hurts any value he has with MLB teams because he doesn't hit for the power of the guys above, and doesn't have a real position.

Why Henry Rodriguez Has Failed In the Majors

Henry Rodriguez was designated for assignment by the Washington Nationals after posting a career 4.46 kwERA and 99 FIP - in 144.2 innings. The problem was most simply walks, as he wasn't hittable in terms of BABIP or homers, with both well below league average, but his strikeout rate wasn't overwhelming either (just less than 23%). Of course, Rodriguez started his career with the Athletics, but we will look at all his data.

Rodriguez has been one of the top velocity fastball pitchers in the entire Pitch F/X era, which makes his struggles so interesting. According to average velocity by the MLBAM tags, he has steadily lost velocity, and it seems that he has had a statistical decline to go with it. However, when you look at the velocity of his top 25% pitches by year, the decline is less dramatic.

2013: 99.28 MPH

2012: 99.26 MPH

2011: 99.43 MPH

2010: 100.37 MPH

2009: 100.03 MPH

So really he didn't lose top end velocity in any way that should really have changed anything. The average of all pitches thrown in the Majors was 94.57 MPH, let's see how his how his velocity and release point data breaks down with results for his career:

Whiffs: 93.56 MPH, 6.27 v,-1.14 h
Run Scoring Plays: 95.01, 6.27 v, -1.24 h
Outs: 96.12, 6.25 v ,-1.19 h
In Play, No Outs: 94.64 MPH, 6.28 v, -1.19 h

Not surprisingly, the closer to the center of the rubber he releases the ball, the better the result (though it didn't affect the results BABIP plays). The velocity is a little more complicated, as the hardest group is the one that is turned into outs, and the softest group is the whiffs. The ones in between were the hits and runs. Perhaps his fastest fastballs are turned into outs, while his slider and change are getting whiffs. Vertical movement didn't have a real difference.

The average vertical movement of his 4-seam fastball is 9.13, which is good movement, and even better than the average whiff on a plus fastball this season. Movement is clearly not the problem.

Here are his average locations by pitch type:

That is a good place to put a moving fastball, and the change and slider are in somewhat standard spots, though perhaps lower and less to the edge of the plate than usual, suggesting that he is burying them and not really throwing them for strikes often. His 4-seamer being glove side on average and not arm side is unusual. This means he clearly isn't having a problem finishing his delivery, but may be pulling the ball.

His average locations by result:

Other than his average pitch being glove side, this isn't that unusual (the outs being above the hits is, but BABIP could be an explanation). He is getting his whiffs down and glove side, suggesting his slider (which would explain the lower MPH on whiffs) is getting the job done. Throwing glove side doesn't seem to be his problem as most of his runs allowed are on arm side pitches, suggesting the 2-seamer or change isn't getting the job done.

Even though release point data suggests that he is releasing the ball at a higher point than when he first came up, he hasn't really changed pitching location by year, other than his 2011 season, probably not coincidentally his best season, is the lowest

Rodriguez' problems don't seem to be the traditional answers like "too many balls up" or that his fastball was "too straight". Instead, as his walk rates suggests, he may just not be throwing enough strikes.

He threw strikes just 58% of the time in 2012 and 58.9 % of the time for his career, which is Carlos Marmolian territory. With that said, he pitches in the zone 43.2 % of the time, which is better than notable relievers Huston Street, Scott Downs, along with notable starters Gio Gonzalez, Jeremy Hellickson, and Jarrod Parker. So the zone percentage is actually acceptable, but his strike percentage lags behind, suggesting he isn't getting swings and misses out of the zone to make up for the zone percentage. The other 11 pitchers that have his identical outside the zone swing percentage (according to Fangraphs, with at least 100 innings since Rodriguez' debut) have an average zone percentage of 45.63 %, suggesting that Rodriguez isn't living with the amount of pitches he throws in the zone because he isn't getting the swings at pitches out of the zone. This suggests that his stuff either a) his stuff (especially his breaking balls) isn't good enough to get hitters to chase or b) when he is out of the zone, he is so far out of the zone that hitters aren't tempted to chase. Both of these are hard to test, but the first one seems unlikely since he has a good swinging strike percentage.

The problem probably isn't that Rodriguez throws such a heavy dosage of fastballs, as there have been some successful closers with an even higher percentage of fastballs (such as Valverde, Perez, Balfour, Feliz, Chapman, and Walden). With his velocity, that shouldn't be a problem unless his release point is just easy to see, which anecdotally doesn't seem to be the case, though when he comes further out, he is less likely to succeed. According to Brooks Baseball his slider gets above average horizontal movement and below average vertical movement. His change gets slightly above average horizontal movement and slightly better vertical movement, yet it is his slider that seems to be the better pitch.

Perhaps when Rodriguez misses out of the zone, it is just too much out of the zone. While wild pitches can be a subjective stat, often just in the hands of the official scorer, Rodriguez throws a wild pitch .055 times per batter faced. League average in 2012 was .008, which means that Rodriguez, in his time in the Majors, has thrown nearly 31 more wild pitches than an average pitcher would. This matches up with what I (and probably most Nationals' fans) have seen when watching Rodriguez. He sometimes self destructs and can't get anything close to the zone, which I think explains, even with his stuff, why he can't get swings at pitches out of the zone, and therefore, can't get hitters out at an exceptional or even average rate in the Majors despite his exceptional velocity. I would always take chances on guys like this, and it might not be a bad idea for a team to claim him and see if they can pitch him in low leverage situations and tweak or overhaul his mechanics, because if he ever does get around the zone, he should be really good. 

Padres and Athletics Trade Evaluation: Andy Parrino

This is the final post on the trade between the Padres and Athletics that included
Tyson Ross, A.J. Kirby-Jones, Andrew Werner, and Andy Parrino (links to the previous articles on each name). This post is a look at Andy Parrino, who the A's are getting from the Padres.

Andy Parrino is a 27 year old switch hitting shortstop that has also played 2nd (his minor league time is split between 2nd and short pretty evenly), 3rd, and both corner outfielder positions. He was a 26th round pick by the Padres in 2007 out of LeMoyne College (where he had a couple of big years, especially his Junior Year when he lead the MAAC in OPS and a few other offensive categories). Parrino has never been a top prospect of any kind thanks to a "lack of tools".

Defensively, the data throughout the minor leagues (using FRAA and Total Zone data from 2007-2009) suggests he has been an above average defender. In his 79 games in the MLB, all 3 major defensive metrics rate him as an above average defender. Small sample problems (along with the general problems that may arise when using defensive metrics) apply, but the body of evidence points to him being a good defender. John Sickles wrote in April this year:

"Parrino is a very skilled defender at second base, not bad at shortstop and third, and can even take a turn in the outfield if you need him. Given the short benches used by most teams these days, Parrino's ability to play multiple positions, take some walks, and provide occasional pop should keep him employed for awhile."

As far as baserunning goes, the results are somewhat mixed but he is most likely below average. Baseball Prospectus rates his baserunning as below average, while FanGraphs' formula has him as an above average runner, even with a poor speed score of 2.8. Baseball Prospectus also rates his baserunning in the minors as below average according to BRR and his average speed score (excluding his 5 game stint in class A in 2009) was 4.4 in the minors. Considering he has never stolen more than 8 bases at any level, he just isn't going to provide much value on the bases.

Even with the baserunning being below average, the bat is Parrino's weakest spot. He has always drawn walks, even in the Majors, with a 13.5 BB% in that somewhat short sample size (with a 12.53 BB % in his minor league career and 9.255 BB % in AAA, where he hasn't been older than most of the competition). His complete minor league slash line of .272/.372/.406 is pretty uninspiring, though not bad. Power has not been his thing, as league average ISO in the PCL over the last couple of years has been .157. Despite playing in a home stadium with a two year Park Factor of 105, Parrino has a ISO of .145 in his AAA time. He has hit for a good average (and a good OBP with the good walk rate), which is a obviously a skill set that works for good middle infielders. However, it is not one that has translated to Petco Park, as he has a 62 wRC + and 66 OPS + in his time in the big leagues. It is hard to blame the extreme pitcher friendly park in San Diego as well, as his numbers are much worse on the road. It is also not like Oakland's park is much more friendly for hitters (Oakland has a 97 three year Park Factor according to Baseball Reference, while San Diego has a 92 three year Park Factor). In the Majors, he doesn't have much platoon splits at all, not being really stronger or weaker from either side. In the minors, this has pretty much been the case over the last two seasons.

The most troubling thing about Parrino at the plate has been his strikeouts. While he struck out 18.3 % of the time over the last two years in the minors, or less than 2 per every walk, he has struck out 26.9 % of the time in the Majors (while still having an above average BB/K thanks to all the walks). This chart shows the problems Parrino has been having with contact:

It isn't even just one zone that has been giving him problems, it has been basically all over. It is a small sample size obviously, but this is a sign of a guy that is pretty overwhelmed. The swing pitch type chart is also discouraging when you look at how many changeups he has been chasing:

The data sample is obviously somewhat small so let's look at his spray chart (obviously small as well) and see if that can tell us anything about Parrino's style and whether or not that will work in Oakland's ballpark:

You will notice most of his batted balls are center to right. This is because he does a good job of going up the middle against both lefties and righties and pulls the ball as a lefty. In Oakland's ballpark last year, lefties had a .048 OPS better than right-handers. In 2011, the split was smaller at .009 OPS, and in 2010 it was .013. This is important because Parrino will obviously have more at-bats as a lefty as a switch hitter. The 2012 Oakland Athletics club (just them, regardless of ballpark) had a .736 OPS average up the middle, .880 OPS on balls to the left side average, and .934 OPS to right field. All of this data may suggest that Parrino pulling the ball at Oakland as a left-handed hitter may work better than it would at other places (though his ability to hit balls up the middle may be wasted, as the OPS on balls up the middle for the Athletics was worse than league average). League average OPS on balls pulled by right-handers and hit the other way by left-handers (that is, left field) was higher than balls hit to the right side of the field. There may be other variables (such as the hitters or randomness), but this data would seem to suggest that Parrino could be helped by the way the ballpark works.

What makes Parrino attractive to the Athletics? Lazy commentators might just point out the walks, but there is a need on the Oakland roster. When acquiring Chris Young, the A's traded away Cliff Pennington, who was at times the starting shortstop, the starting 2nd baseman, or a utility player. While Parrino is not the player Pennington is, he could take over the utility role. He isn't the answer at shortstop, and the Athletics are most likely bringing back Stephen Drew to take over that role, but he could battle Jemile Weeks for the 2nd base role. The depth on the infield for the A's is pretty poor, as Drew and Brandon Inge are both free agents, Josh Donaldson is probably not an every day player (though he will most likely fight for a starting position with Scott Sizemore coming back from an injury), Eric Sogard and Adam Rosales are more replacement players (who will most likely get a shot at competing with Parrino for a job), Stephen Parker doesn't play shortstop, and Josh Horton has worse MiLB numbers than Parrino does. The A's are going to have a few players to fight for a utility spots, with Parrino as the possible favorite but none of them are real impact players. If the A's are unable to bring back Drew, it looks like they will really be hurting for a shortstop (and may use the extra outfield depth to bring one in). Parrino also has 2 options left, isn't arbitration eligible until 2015, and is under team control until 2018. If a player can play at all (which Parrino can clearly do something, even if only defensively), there is value in that contract situation.

So who "wins" the trade (that is, which team does this help the most)? Basically, the Athletics get two low impact useful players that can help them this year. The Padres get a guy in Ross who could help them this year if used correctly and turn out to be a good bullpen piece in the future (probably better than Werner) along with Kirby-Jones, a guy who can't help them in the Majors this year, but could in coming years. To be simplistic, the A's get the low ceiling high floor guys, while the Padres get the higher ceiling guys (although their impact will be limited as well). To me, the trade will come down to how the Padres use Ross. Will they try him as a starter? Or will they convert him to a slider heavy reliever? If it is the latter, I think he can be successful. If this happens, it may not matter what Kirby-Jones does. I am not going to declare a winner or loser in this trade because it helps both teams (it is more of a need for need trade than a talent for talent trade). The Padres can lose this trade though, if Ross is not used right and Kirby-Jones doesn't develop into a MLB player. The risk for the A's seems to be a lot less (though it obviously isn't a huge impact for either team, good teams still get good value in these kinds of trades).

Padres and Athletics Trade Evaluation: Tyson Ross

The Padres have traded Andy Parrino and Andrew Werner to the Oakland Athletics for Tyson Ross and A.J. Kirby-Jones. What I believe I am going to do is break this trade into 4 parts, one post for each player. It may not turn out that way (I could combine a couple, or I could give up before I am done with all of them), but I am going to try to write scouting reports on each player (and then maybe we will be able to make a judgment on the trade).

Last year, I thought Tyson Ross was a good comparison for Rangers' rookie reliever Robbie Ross 

Robbie Ross in 2012: 77 FIP -, 62.4 GB %, 2.04 K/BB

Tyson Ross in 2012: 119 FIP -, 49.6 GB %, 1.24 K/BB

..Oops

To be fair, Robbie did all of his work in the bullpen while Tyson was used mainly as a starter. Tyson Ross has now pitched in 53 games in the Majors, starting 21, totalling up to 148 innings. It hasn't gone real well so far, with a 106 FIP -. His problems has not been homers (.73 HR/9IP, .56 HR/9IP on the road). His problem has been his K/BB. He has not struck out a lot of batters (just 15.6 %) and he has walked quite a bit of batters (10.7 %). His problem is specifically against left-handed batters, as he has been awful against them, striking out just one more batter than he has walked. Against righties (he has faced both about 50% of the time), he at least strikes out 2 per every walk (though both rates are really still below average). With that said, he has gotten a better GB % and HR/FB % against lefties. In AAA this year, those traits mostly held, as he had a better GB % against lefties but his FIP/SIERA and K/BB was better against righties. The difference was that he was better at limiting home runs against righties. This is probably more predictive. If we lazily assume that the Padres use him in the bullpen and have him face 2 righties for every lefty, we can project a 4.15 FIP. Of course, this should go down a little thanks to PETCO, but that still isn't very good for a reliever. Mark Buerhle had a 4.18 FIP (obviously as a starter) in a park that played neutral (100 Park Factor) and that translated to a 107 FIP -. This would put him about 106th out of 136 qualified relievers in 2012 (with Kameron Loe, Jose Arredondo, Jared Hughes). Statistically, it is really hard to love Ross. What about from a scouting or (more accurately) Pitch F/X standpoint?

Ross brings an above average fastball to the table, averaging anywhere from 92.5 MPH to 93.47 MPH (touching up to 97.7 MPH). He is very fastball heavy, throwing the 4 seamer 40 % of the time and his sinker 28% of the time. His main breaking pitch is a slider at 24% of the time while throwing a changeup just 9% of the time mainly against lefties. While it is still hard to judge off-speed pitches using Pitch F/X data (I usually compare movement data, but that doesn't take into account the control of a pitch. Using batted ball data can be useful over large sample sizes, but it is also noisy. For instance, is a high or low BABIP on a pitch just randomness or luck, or is it because the pitch is being hit especially hard or especially soft? While GB/LD/FB is helpful, it doesn't differentiate between a hard ground-ball and soft ground-ball. Using batted ball distance from Baseball Heat Maps is useful, but can be misleading if you have a bad infield and ground-balls are going 150-200 feet because no one in the infield gets to them before the outfielder gets to ball), considering that Ross is so bad against lefties, it is probably safe to say it isn't a great pitch. The small sample size doesn't really allow us to gather anything from batted ball data, but the ground-balls he gets against lefties (more than right-handers as stated above) is not from the changeup. His best ground-ball pitch is, as you would expect, his sinker. For a sinker/slider guy, which is what Ross is, the slider has to be the out pitch (or you have to have really good command and avoid walks, which is something Ross obviously doesn't have). Small Sample Size alerts apply (605-624 pitches thrown), but it seems to be that kind of pitch for him, at least according to GB/FB/LD/K. It is the pitch that he likes to throw the most when he is ahead and the pitch that he gets the most strikeouts with by far. It is the pitch he gets the most swings and swings and misses with, and he throws strikes with it (not necessarily in the zone obviously) about 64% of the time, a good percentage.

So without 3 real MLB pitches, it is hard to see Ross as anything but a reliever. But could the fastball/sinker/slider (I realize that is 3 pitches, but he doesn't have two off-speed pitches that he can really throw, which is usually considered a prerequisite to starting) work in a relief role? Comparing his slider to other relievers, it's velocity (85.99 MPH on average) sits between Michael Wuertz and Ryan Perry in the Pitch F/X era. Wuertz slider was considered the hardest pitch in baseball to hit when he was on. Perry has not had much MLB success, but his slider was ranked high in the minors by scouting sites. In horizontal movement, his slider most compares to Luke Gregerson and Denny Bautista. Gregerson, a career reliever, has carved out quite a career with the San Diego Padres so far by throwing his slider nearly 60 % of the time (68.5 % of the time in 2012!). Bautista had a pretty poor MLB career, but was once ranked a high prospect. I believe the slider is what Bautista is throwing here (he pitched in Korea this year and thanks to Dan of @mykbo for the video):

In vertical movement, Ross' slider most compares to Jonathan Papelbon and Robert Parnell. Papelbon, one of the top relievers in baseball, mainly relies on his plus fastball, but the slider has been effective for him when he has used it. Parnell is a fastball heavy pitcher, and seems to have ditched his slider for a curveball, if Pitch F/X is to be believed. So the vertical movement is less impressive than the horizontal movement or velocity.

However, I think this is what the Padres see in him. Ross' best hope may be to turn into Josh Kinney, or even new teammate Luke Gregerson and become an extremely slider heavy reliever. His fastball velocity is above average, but it doesn't seem to be helping him. This can come with injury problems and he has a history of problems with his UCL, but if you are asking me what the Padres see in him, it is clearly the fastball/slider combo. The stuff should play in the bullpen, but I think his days as a starter should be over. 

Times to first: Part 11

1. Paul Goldschmidt (Diamondbacks): 4.23

2. Matt Carpenter (Cardinals): 4.13

3. Jared Hoying (Rangers AA): 4.06

4. Matt Dominguez (Astros): 4.37

5. Jordy Mercer (Pirates): 4.26

6. Brett Lawrie (Blue Jays): 4.09

7. Yeonis Cespedes (Athletics): 11.14 (on a triple)

8. Martin Prado (Braves): 11.67 (on a triple)

9. Torii Hunter (Angels): 4.21

10. Martin Maldonado (Brewers): 4.68

11. Kole Calhoun (Angels): 4.44

12. Alberto Callaspo (Angels): 4.37

13. Josh Hamilton (Rangers): 4.09

14. Mauro Gomez (Red Sox): 8.38 (on a double)

15. Darin Ruf (Phillies): 12.68 (on a triple)

 16. Dave Sappelt (Cubs): 4.12

17. Fernando Martinez (Astros): 11.31 (1st to home)

18. Alfonso Soriano (Cubs): 4.55

19. Luis Valbuena (Cubs): 4.42

20. Coco Crisp (Athletics): 3.99

Here are the updated times:

Scouting Reports on the Midland Rockhounds and Frisco Roughriders

I went and saw the Frisco Roughriders (Rangers AA) play against the Midland Rockhounds (Athletics AA) play on Tuesday June 12th. It was a fun 14 inning game, on to the scouting reports:

Midland

Connor Crumbliss was the lead-off hitter for Midland and the small 5'8 170 player was what you want in your basic lead-off hitter. He had long at-bats. He was fooled on a 2-1 slider and fouled it in his first at-bat. He ended up walking though, laying off a high fastball. He had another long at-bat, where he struck out chasing a breaker. The 3rd time he worked a full count before fouling off a low 95 MPH fastball and then walked. He also had another walk. The patience is great, but he is so small that he certainly doesn't project to hit for much power, which is a problem if he is a corner outfielder. Anthony Aliotti chased a curve in the dirt to strikeout the first time, and then took 2 fastballs for strikes in his 2nd at-bat before meekly grounding out. Michael Choice is a big man with a big hack. He got jammed for an infield fly-ball in his first plate appearances. He also drove a ball in the gap and had another line drive for a single. He looks like a guy who will hit for a ton of power but swing and miss a lot. Jeremy Barfield (i.e. Baseclogger on Twitter) hit the ball pretty hard too, as he hit a fastball to reasonably deep left field after being late on 2. He hit another one hard to center field. In left field, he made a horrible read, but he has a good arm and can run too. I really like him, especially if his exploits out in the field are usually better than what I saw. Josh Horton had some mixed results out in 2nd before being taken out early for some reason.



Murphy Smith was the starter for Midland and he had weirdly inconsistent velocity. He was sitting 88-89 MPH at times, and then 92-93 MPH at other times. Obviously, he is much more interesting with the latter velocity. At first, I thought he just had a 2 seamer to go along with the 4-seamer, but it didn't look like there was any difference in the movement. He was really lacking in command of the pitch too, with a lot of balls. He also had a rare 86 MPH slider. That is not much speed differential. He was really fastball heavy, but he also threw a 79-81 MPH changeup. Both of his breaking pitches have some dip, but it doesn't seem like he can throw them for strikes. He was getting a lot of grounders, including one that was smoked for a run. He had a dominant 1-2-3 inning to the top of the order in the 3rd where he got 2 foul infield outs along with a comebacker. That was followed by a rough 4th inning with some bad luck and bad defense (some of it by himself).
James Simmons came in as a reliever and was throwing 89-91 MPH with a wild 78 MPH breaking ball. Paul Smyth immediately gave up a line drive shot by Mike Olt, but it was turned into an out. He was throwing 91 MPH with a 83 MPH slider. He walked 2 in a row and has sort of a low arm slot.
Arnold Leon wasn't showing much command but was 95-96 MPH on his fastball. Mike Olt was late 3 times in a row on it. He then struck out Profar on a slow curve, followed by another strikeout and another strikeout. He was downright dominant. He had a 82 MPH breaking pitch that was pretty wild. He has big league stuff, it is pretty obvious.

Carlos Hernandez had a 77 MPH pitch that moved like a 2-seamer, was probably a change. He once hit 84 MPH on a pitch that was straight, but the change looking pitch was his feature pitch, and it has some movement and deception and reached 80 MPH. He also showed a 69-71 MPH curve.



Frisco:
Roy Oswalt pitched, and you can find my analysis of him here. I will also have something on Frisco's Justin Grimm on fantasycpr.com.

Fabio Castillo came out of the bullpen and started out wild at 91-92 MPH. He then got up to 93-94 MPH and got a weak grounder which he made a play on. He then reached 95 MPH with good movement but not much control. He finally broke out a breaking pitch, an 84 MPH slider with decent movement. He blew away Aliotti with a 93 MPH fastball and then got a swinging strike for a strikeout on a slider. He got a nasty strikeout on a swinging strike on a moving 92 MPH fastball down and in. He along with Midland's Leon has big league stuff if he can ever harness it.

For Frisco's lineup, Leury Garcia showed off some nice range at 2nd base. He was pitched inside in his first at-bat, and stole a base after reaching. He had a 1 pitch infield out in his 2nd at-bat. Jurickson Profar is the real super prospect on Frisco, so I didn't feel the need to write a lot about him. In his first at-bat, he got ahead 3-1 before a big whiff on a moving fastball. He ended up walking on an outside pitch. The next at-bat started with a couple of fouls to get him behind 0-2. He took 2 breaking pitches before fouling back to the catcher on a high fastball. He then had a long at-bat where he battled back from 0-2 to get to a full count and he ended up hitting a deep fly-ball. Defensively, he booted the only ball hit hard to him. He also did 1st baseman type splits on a ball thrown to him by the pitcher but he couldn't come up with a low throw.
Mike Olt hit a hard ground-ball for a double play. In the 4th, he got to a 2-2 count and chased a slider but fouled it off. He ended up hitting a hard ground-ball up the middle. He hit another really hard grounder. Defensively, he is exceptional at 3rd base. The talk is moving him to third because of Adrian Beltre anchoring down 3rd. That would be a real shame. He also runs okay. Chris McGuinness played 1st and made a really brutal play defensively. However, he absolutely smoked 2 balls offensively.
Engel Beltre was a guy that I was interested in seeing. He has always been really toolsy but hasn't matched it with success at the plate. In his first at-bat, he took outside/middle for strike 1 on a fastball. He fouled off the next pitch, an inside fastball was taken before he fouled off a breaking pitch. He then chased one in the dirt for a strikeout. In at-bat 2, he took a low fastball, fouled off one the other way that was in the zone before popping up another fastball to the pitcher in foul territory. The next at-bat ended quickly, he grounded into a fielder's choice. The next time, he got up 2-0 before taking a strike and then grounding out. In his final at-bat, he fouled a bunt off before grounding out to first.
Defensively, he took a really poor route but used his speed to get to a ball. He used his speed to get to another ball that an average speed player probably wouldn't have caught. He also flashed off a good arm, but had weird mechanics, making him inaccurate at times. He fell down as he threw a ball to home. His arm in the game didn't seem to be as good as it was in between innings, as weird as that sounds.

Wilfredo Boscan was wild. He walked the first hitter and was 89-92 MPH. He got a strikeout on a fastball and also showed a 76-79 MPH slider looking pitch. He fooled Choice with it to get a whiff. It is slow, but it doesn't look like a curve at all. It does provide some good speed differential. He got 2 double plays.

Joseph Ortiz is short, but it doesn't really matter. He throws 91-92 MPH with an 84-85 MPH slider with some good movements. He got a couple swings and misses and got Aliotti to strikeout swinging
Ryan Rodebaugh had a 88-91 MPH fastball with a 79-80 MPH breaker that he could throw for strikes. He had a lead-off walk but got Choice to chase in the dirt for a strikeout. He also mixed in a 73 MPH pitch to get a strikeout of Crumbliss. He got another strikeout on it on a check swing. Barfield had a long at-bat after taking 2 fastballs down the middle. He really earned that single. He got Luke Hughes to swing through for a strikeout. As he had to keep pitching, his velocity dipped and he gave up a lot of fouls, but his breaking stuff was still good.
Carlos Pimentel was an almost sneaky 91-92 MPH, touching 93. He walked Crumbliss, but also had a 81-82 MPH slider with some decent drop and late break. He couldn't throw strikes with it really, but he got some chases and whiffs with it. He had a lot of control issues, especially in his 2nd inning.

The Orioles pull off a couple of trades

The Orioles traded cash for Jai Miller from Oakland, and moved Brandon Snyder to Texas for cash. Since we don't (and won't) know the actual cash considerations, we will just compare Jai Miller to Brandon Snyder and see if the player they acquired is better than the one they got rid of (i.e. is Miller better than Snyder).

Miller has played in just 28 MLB games, so it doesn't seem wise to take anything from that. He has played in 423 AAA games, so it does make a lot of sense to look at those statistics. Defensively, he is under average, as his outfield range factor shows. Offensively, he has a .351 OBP, 867 OPS, 1.5 PPG, 2.36 PAPP, which is a 2.42 Simple WAR. This projects to be a .93 Simple WAR with an OBP of .305.

Snyder has just 16 games played in the MLB, so like Miller, we will rely on his minor league numbers. Defensively, he is under average at first base. Offensively at AAA (285 games), he has a .317 OBP, .711 OBP, 1.11 PPG, and 3.05 PAPP. This adds up to a -.43 Simple WAR. So Snyder is a below replacement AAA player.

This makes it quite obvious that the Orioles acquired the better player and dumped the worse one. Assuming the cash considerations were about the same, then it appears that the Orioles made a pretty decent roster move.

The Trevor Cahill trade

The Athletics have traded Trevor Cahill and Craig Breslow for Jarrod Parker, Collin Cowgill, and Ryan Cook from the Diamondbacks.

Cahill had a 3.5 WAR in 2011, and a WAR average of 3.13 over the past 3 years. He did this all at 440,000 and under a year. However, he will make 3.5 million dollars in 2012, a still really nice 1118 WASP. He had a PE of 1.86 in 2011, with a .302 BABIP. His FIP - was 105, and his SIERA was 4.02. This is hardly impressive, but he did have a decent 9.27 TR. Cahill is an above average starting pitcher at a decent salary, but his value can be overstated.

Breslow had a .5 WAR in 2011, but has a WAR average of 1.07 over the past 3 years. He is arbitration eligible, but you can expect him to make more than the 1.4 million he made in 2012. If theoretically we said he would make 2 million dollars, he would have a 1869 WASP, a good number. So the Diamondbacks get two underpaid players according to WASP. He is a reliever and had a really poor PE of 1.54, with a BABIP of .342. While that high BABIP is part of the explanation it is not all of it. He doesn't have a very good strikeout rate for a reliever, but did have a FIP - of 91. His SIERA of 3.95 for a reliever is not overly impressive, but he is above average.

Cowgill has just 100 Major League plate appearances, so it only makes sense to look at his minor league numbers. He has 456 PCL plate appearances, and had a .430 OBP, .984 OPS, 2.12 PPG, and 1.97 PAPP. When converted into International League numbers, they look like this: .400 OBP, .906 OPS, 1.82 PPG, and 2.22 PAPP. This is a very nice 5.36 Simple WAR. Converted to the Majors, this is a 3.87 Simple WAR (worth 11.6 million dollars according to the Halladay Standard, and thats just his offense), with an OBP of .354. Defensively, he had an above average Range Factor and a below average fielding percentage. So we could say he is average at defense (but above replacement). He will make the league minimum $480,000 in 2012.

Jarrod Parker has pitched in just 1 Major League game, and has not pitched even in AAA. However, in 209 AA innings, Parker has a -.43 PE as a starter. He has a reasonable walk rate, and doesn't give up very many homers. His AA FIP is also lower than his ERA, which is a good sign.

Ryan Cook has also just pitched 7.2 innings in the Majors and 22 innings in AAA. In his minor league career, he has pitched both as a starter and a reliever. His PE isn't very impressive at .11. He too has a reasonable walk rate and doesn't give up very many home runs.

The Athletics are able to dump some salary and get a very good hitter in Cowgill, but the Diamondbacks get two underpaid pitchers. Most of this trade is going to depend on how Parker and Cook turn out for the A's, but at this point, I think it is pretty even, the Diamondbacks playing for the present, while the A's are playing for the future.

Free Agent Watch: Adam Kennedy

Adam Kennedy had just a .4 WAR in 2011 with Seattle and a .83 WAR Average in the past 3 years. This is worth 2.5 million dollars according to the Halladay Standard, but with such a low WAR, he could only really be considered as a bench player, because you need about 1.4 WAR per player to make the playoffs, so Kennedy would be way below average needed. In 2011, he had a .277 OBP, .632 OPS, 3.33 PAPP, and .78 PPG. His career line is better but not impressive at .92 PPG, 2.9 PAPP, .326 OBP, and .711 OPS. He has been a serviceable offensive player in his career, but he wasn't even that in 2011. At 35 years old, it is tempting to argue that Kennedy is just washed up. BABIP is certainly a big factor though. For his career, he has a .306 BABIP, but in 2011 his BABIP was just .266. So was he hitting the ball less hard or was he just unlucky in 2011? His ISO was actually slightly above his career average at .121 and he homered at a slightly better rate than his career, but still below league average. He hit slightly less groundballs than usual, and had more extra base hits than usual. However, there are a couple of things that give a different story, he hit less line drives than usual, and he had a shocking 15% of his flyballs stay in the infield. So one could certainly make the argument either way on whether his BABIP was earned. Which ever way you fall on this argument (I believe that it is luck and you can expect some rebound in 2012), it is not like Kennedy is some offensive force. He is a below average walker, below average power hitter, and has a career Secondary Average of just .206. He has a PPS of just 89.5, and I really don't see the benefit of having Kennedy in your lineup unless your just dying for defense (6.5 D-WAR for his career).

Astros newest outfielder: Travis Buck

The Astros signed Travis Buck to a (reportedly) minor league contract. He had a 0 WAR in 2011, -.5 WAR in 2010, and -.1 WAR in 2009. He did have a 2.2 WAR in 2007, his first year (his career high in PA and Games). Travis Buck has a great Fielding Percentage at .997, however, his Range Factor is well below average. So is the whole "he doesn't get to many balls" game. Fielding statistics have tons of problems and aren't always reliable, but it does help to look at other metrics. His total zone runs have him in the positive, meaning he saves more runs than average. A similar result is found in Baseball Info Solutions defensive runs saved. So it seems safe to say he is at least above replacement at defense (he has a .4 D-WAR in his career). In 220 major league games, he has a .320 OBP, .727 OPS, .95 PPG, and 2.98 PAPP. However, even though it has been a relatively short career, it has been a tale of two different Bucks. So we will look at his 2007 season and his 2011 season. In 2007, he had a .377 OBP, .850 OPS, 2.55 PAPP, and 1.05 PPG. In 2011, his line was .275 OBP, .617 OPS, 3.64 PAPP, and .78 PPG. So why are these two years so different, can it be explained statistically, and can we project how 2012 will turn out. One of our very familiar friends, BABIP, helps explain a lot. In his good 07 year, he had a .347 BABIP, and in 2011 his BABIP was just .271. His career BABIP is under league average at .290 so it could come up. In both in 2011 and his career, he is an above average extra base hitter. This, along with being a flyball and linedrive hitter, leads me to believe that the BABIP and the OBP will come up from his 2011 and career numbers. He is an about average walker, and slightly below average home run hitter. His career Secondary Average is unimpressive at .266, as is his .166 ISO. Even though his Offensive winning percentage is .472, his Runs Created per game is above average at 4.6. His PPS is pretty poor at 87.67, and that can further explain inconsistencies. Overall, Buck could be a decent hitter, and for the price and no risk situation the Astros got him for, it is a good deal.

Athletics prospect: Chih Fang Pan

Chih Fang Pan is a member of the Oakland Athletics and is playing for the Taiwan National Team against Major League players in the "Taiwan Series". 4.23 Range Factor at short (Elvis Andrus has a 1.5 D-WAR in 3 seasons with a Range Factor of about 4.46). Fielding percentage of .901 (Yuniesky Betancourt, a terrible fielder, has a .970 fielding percentage and a range factor of 4.25). Fielding statistics are not always helpful, but all signs pointing to Pan not being a good fielder. However, he does have a .386 OBP in both Rookie ball and A-ball. His OPS is .799, but he only walks 7.4% of the time. He has a PPG of 1.225, and a PAPP of 2.6. None of these numbers are that impressive for A-ball. He is only 20, and certainly could improve, but Baseball Cube rankings only give him a 35 patience, 17 power, and 60 speed.

Free Agent Watch: Coco Crisp

I wrote an article a while back pointing out that the A's signings of Willingham, Matsui, and Fuentes (especially Fuentes, as he is a pricey reliever) didn't make much sense in the context of Moneyball, as they were all overpaid in the 2011 season, The Coco Crisp signing made even less sense. A guy with an average OBP who steals bases made very little sense according to Jamesian analysis and Beane's own philosophy. Crisp has walked just 7.87% of the time in is career, which is below league average. However, WAR really likes Crisp, as he has a 1.99 WAR average in his career, which is better than the average player needed to make the playoffs. In fact, 25 players with equal WAR as Coco Crisp would win 101 games. He is worth about 6 million dollars according to this metric. For the Athletics, he was actually slightly better, with a 2.9 WAR in 2010 (worth 8.7 million), and a 2.1 WAR in 2011 (worth 6.3 million). In his career, Crisp has a .330 OBP (slightly above league average) and 87.62 PPS (below average).In 2011, his OBP dropped to .314, and he had just a 82.07 PPS (league average is around 90). He walked just 41 times and had a Runs Created per game of about 4.3, very mediocre. He did steal 49 bases, while only being caught 9 times, a 84 percentage, meaning his stealing is worth it. His Secondary Average was .267 (.255 in his career), and an ISO of .130. The good news for Crisp is that his 2011 BABIP was .284, under average. If his BABIP was league average, he would have had an OBP of about .332, which is around his career average. So teams scared of his .314 OBP (assuming they want his .332), should take comfort, and perhaps it will drive his price down. Crisp is a good player with a lot of "tools" but not a leadoff hitter. Injury problems and the fact he played for the lowly Athletics may drive his price down some, and make him a bargain.

Newest A's: Evan Scribner and Cedric Hunter

The Athletics claimed two minor league players (they both have very small pointless samples in the Majors) from the Padres off waivers. First relief pitcher Evan Scribner, who also has spent time in the Diamondbacks minor league system. In his minor league career, he has a very impressive -5.012 PE. He is a pretty impressive strikeout pitcher, that doesn't give up a lot of homers. He has pitched almost exclusively as a late inning guy, finishing 152 out the 214 games he pitched. This sounds exactly like a page out of Moneyball (the book at least), getting a cheap prospect to use as a closer. If the plan works out the same, Beane will trade Scribner away before he costs any money and will get more prospects. In AAA in 2011, he had a FIP of 3.48, and gave up a BAA of .243 with a BABIP of .303. Cedric Hunter is a left handed outfielder that spent 5 years in the Padres minor league system. He had an OBP of .347 and an OPS of .739 in this time. His PPG was an unimpressive but not bad 1.24 PPG, and his PAPP was 2.75. He created a pretty mediocre .53 runs per game and has a minor league simple WAR of 1.08. This is all pretty lackluster, but it gets even worse when you look at his AAA numbers, which added up to a -.722 simple WAR. So Hunter is not even a good AAA player (he doesn't get on base either, a .316 AAA OBP). The Scribner move looks like another Beane stroke of genius, but the Hunter acquisition doesn't make much sense.

Moneyball Review: Is Johnny Damon really overrated?

After the 2001 season, the Athletics had to replace, as emphasized in Moneyball, Jason Giambi, Jason Isringhausen, and Johnny Damon. After Billy Beane hires Jonah Hill's character, we learn that Johnny Damon is "overrated" and not worth the money the Red Sox gave him. Now regular readers of the blog know that I am very much on the Johnny Damon bandwagon, so we will see if the numbers side with Moneyball's assessment, or what I have said in previous articles on Damon. First let's tackle the claim that Damon was not worth what the Red Sox paid him. In his 4 years in Boston, Damon's WASP's were as follows: 1542, 12500, 1818, 3437. So two years, he was very much worth it, had one really bad season, and was slightly overpaid his final year. This makes the claim that he is not worth it shaky at best. In Damon's one year in Oakland, his WASP was a very solid 2629, and he only made $150,000 less than he did in his first year in Boston. According to the main statistic of Sabermetrics, Wins after Replacement, he was very much worth his salary, contrary to the claims of Moneyball. The main problem Moneyball raised with Damon was On Base Percentage. In Oakland, it wasn't that good, at just .324. However, as you learn in statistics there are always outliers. Damon's Oakland season was certainly an outlier as far as OBP goes. His career OBP is .353. In Boston, it was .362, New York was .363, Kansas City .351, and Detroit .355. In his career, he has had a nice 1.4 PPG and a pretty good 2.52 PAPP in his career. I think this is one of the (few things really) things that Billy Beane's Moneyball A's got wrong (to be clear, they didn't resign Damon because they couldn't, not because they didn't want to. I am just referring to the notion that Damon isn't worth it).

Moneyball Review: Carlos Pena

Art Howe loved Carlos Pena in Moneyball

A point of contention during the whole movie of Moneyball is Carlos Pena. Manager Art Howe wanted to play Pena because he claimed that he was a better first baseman, while Beane wanted Hatteberg to play because he "got on base" (I will address Pena versus Hatteberg in another article). Beane ends up trading Pena away so Howe couldn't play him anymore. In reality, the Athletics sent Pena, Jeremy Bonderman, and Franklyn German to the Tigers, and got Ted Lilly, John-Ford Griffin and Jason Arnold from the Yankees, and much needed cash from the Tigers. In 4 years as a Tiger, Pena posted a 1.3 WAR. In his final year as a Tiger, he made 2.75 million and posted a 0 WAR, giving him a bad WASP of 5500. Jeremy Bonderman (who was originally the "player to be named later") spent 03-10 with the Tigers, posting a 5.6 WAR. However, he made 41 million in his time there, giving him a horrible WASP of 7380. Franklyn German spent 4 years with Detroit, but couldn't figure it out at a -.2 WAR. As far as the players the Athletics received, Ted Lilly played a year and a half with the A's, pitching 201.2 innings. He earned a 2.3 WAR in this time while making just $453,575 in that time (and part of that could be offset with the money the A's got in the trade), giving him a phenomenal WASP of 197.2. Griffin and Arnold never played for the A's in the Majors, but Lilly alone seems to tilt this trade to the Athletics. The Tigers got better overall WAR in the trade, but the Athletics got much more value.

Moneyball Review: Chad Bradford

As promised, this is part of a series I am doing off some of the moves found in the movie "Moneyball". Firstly, I wanted to talk about one of my favorite pitchers in the past decade or so, Chad Bradford. In the movie, Jonah Hill's character notes that Bradford was overlooked because people didn't like his strange delivery, which I have always loved personally. Jonah Hill's character claims that Bradford is worth 3 million dollars. This is a very large claim, since he made $170,000 with the White Sox in 98. In his last year with the White Sox in 2000, Bradford posted a WAR of .3, which is clearly not worth $3 million dollars a year. However, he did this in only 13.2 innings! If the White Sox gave him about 50 innings (more or less average for a reliever) in 2000 (assuming he pitched with the same success) he would have posted about a 1.14 WAR. This means (according to the Halladay Standard in WASP) he would have been worth $3,409,091. In 2000, his ERA was 1.98, with a 2.04 FIP (Fielder Independent ERA, tries to take fielders out of the equation), gave up no home runs, left over 70% of runners on base, and walked just one person. The movie doesn't really stress trade details on many players (which is probably a good thing for cinema sake), and doesn't mention that he was traded to the Athletics from Chicago for catcher Miguel Olivo. Olivo, unlike Bradford, is still in the Majors, but has bounced around and is playing for the Mariners. He played in pieces of the 2002, 2003, and 2004 seasons for the White Sox, playing in 166 games. He was really mediocre, posting a .5 WAR in that time, and was shipped off to Seattle. Bradford, on the other hand, was pretty nice for Oakland. He played for them from 01-04, pitching 248 innings with an ERA of 2.70, and a WHIP of 1.23. He averaged about 65% groundball outs, and picked up 61 holds in 02-04. His total WAR was 3.9 and he only made 1.7 million during that time (a far cry from the 3 million dollars a year he was worth), giving him an amazing WASP of 436 over that 4 year period. After the 04 season, he was traded to the Red Sox for Jay Payton. Payton's OBP wasn't all that great as an Athletic (.302 in 05, .325 in 06), but he was a formidable player, posting a 2.3 WAR in his 2 seasons. He made 6.25 million in his two years as an A, giving him a solid 2717 WASP. Bradford only spent 05 with the Red Sox, posting just a .5 WAR. Certainly the trade for Bradford, and then even the trade sending Bradford away, were trades that worked out greatly for the Athletics. Some of these moves seem quite magical, but they made sense when you looked at the numbers. When you do that enough times, you get movies made after you.

In honor of "Moneyball": Mark Ellis and Jemile Weeks.

It has been a frustrating season for the Oakland A's. It is not a good sign when the highlight of your season is when Brad Pitt is cast as your GM. In honor of Moneyball (which is getting mostly good reviews, I will probably be posting mine on Saturday), we should probably look at a very "moneyball" move the A's made this year that is already paying off. Mark Ellis had been a very solid 2nd baseman for the Athletics for several years, but once it became apparent the A's wouldn't be competing for the playoffs they traded him off for a couple of prospects from the Rockies. They didn't just trade him to trade him though, they had someone waiting in the wings. Enter Jemile Weeks, the little brother of stud 2nd baseman Rickie Weeks of Milwaukee. Jemile, unlike his brother, doesn't hit for any power (still no big league homers), but is still a very solid hitter (.298/.336/ .740 OPS). His defense still needs some work (already 12 errors and -.9 D-WAR), but he is only 24. Since he just made his debut this season, his salary hasn't been released, but its probably around $400,000. His total WAR this year has been .9 (remember, he came up in June, imagine if he becomes a better fielder and is allowed to play a full year), giving him a WASP of around 444, which is great value. Mark Ellis, on the other hand, is making 6 million this season (and will be a free agent at the end of the year). He has registered just a .7 WAR since joining the Rockies (and since he has played half the year there), giving him a WASP of 4286 (well above the Halladay Standard). If Weeks turns out to be the 2nd baseman the A's were looking for, then it's safe to say that Billy Beane still has it.