Was it time for the Rockies to give up Huston Street?

The Rockies gave up Huston Street for a player to be named later from the Padres. The Padres will reportedly pick up almost all of Street's salary. This is curious because the Padres are always toward the bottom in league payroll and Street will make 7.5 million in 2012. Can the Padres afford to pay that much for a reliever? The obvious answer is no. The Padres had just 45 million dollars in payroll in 2011, meaning they can only afford just above a million dollars per WAR if they expect to make the playoffs. So Street would be expected to make a 7.5 WAR in 2012 right? It is impossible for a reliever to put up that kind of WAR, and only the elite starting pitchers accomplish this. In fact, over the past 3 years, Street has a WAR average of 1.13, worth just over a million dollars to the salary (and 3.4 million according to the Halladay Standard). There has also been some regression on Street's part as these statistics show (hattip to High Heat Stats, the order is 09/10/11):

ERA+:      154 / 129 / 117
K/9:      10.2 / 8.6 / 8.5
WHIP:    0.908 / 1.056 / 1.217
HR/9:      1.0 / 1.0 / 1.5

This is further shown by PE: in 2011, his PE was -.07 compared to a career PE

of -2.75. The latter is much closer to the elite relief pitchers, but he pitched like an 

average competent reliever in 2011. One may scream "Coors!", but that doesn't 

explain the smaller strikeout rate. He did have a SIERA of 2.76 in 2011, and in the

Padres very spacious park, there is a chance he could have an ERA of even lower 

in 2012. However, he certainly isn't worth that kind of money. 

Along with being able to dump salary, the Rockies also got Nick Schmidt as the 

player to be named later. Schmidt has never even been to AA, so it is hard to

project where he will be according to our metrics, but he has had a serviceable

.66 PE as a starter in his minor league career. He is a little old though at 26, 

but the big thing is that the Rockies got rid of that terrible contract, and that is

why they are winners in this deal. 

Andres Torres-Angel Pagan trade

The Giants traded Ramon Ramirez and Andres Torres to the Mets for Angel Pagan.

Ramon Ramirez had a .8 WAR in 2011, and a WAR average of 1.2 in the past 3 years. He is arbitration eligible this offseason, so his salary for 2012 is not updated. However, WAR suggests he is worth 3.6 million according to the Halladay Standard (he made just over 1 million in 2011).

Andres Torres had a 1.3 WAR in 2011, and a WAR average of 2.57 over the past 3 years. He is also arbitration eligible, who made 2.2 million in 2011. According to the Halladay Standard, he is worth 7.7 million, which is certainly more than he will receive in 2011.

Angel Pagan on the other hand, had a .2 WAR in 2011, and a WAR average 2.87 over the past 3 years. He made 3.5 million in 2011, and is arbitration eligible for 2012. He is worth about 8 million according to the Halladay Standard.

So just according to WAR (and salary), the Mets seem to have won this trade.

The Dodgers spend more money: Aaron Harang edition

I really thought the Dodgers were bankrupt. They seem to be the second biggest players in the Winter Meetings so far (behind the Marlins), now with a 2 year, $12 million dollar deal with starter Aaron Harang. Harang had a 1.9 WAR in the pitcher friendly Petco Park in 2011, worth 5.7 million dollars. So his 2011 season doesn't seem to be worth his 2012-2013 contract, especially when you factor in Petco Park. When looking over the past 3 years, things get worse, as he has averaged a .43 WAR (thanks to a horrible 2010 season in the very hitter friendly Cincinnati park). Of course, this is just worth 1.3 million dollars according to the Halladay Standard (and one would think even less to the "bankrupt" Dodgers). Harang had a 1.13 PE in 2011, with an adjusted PE of 1.66. These are not impressive numbers at all, and the help of Petco Park is further illuminated by his 119 FIP - and 4.25 SIERA. SIERA further highlights this as his was 4.40 in his terrible 2010 season, and his FIP - of 113. He basically pitched the same in 2010 and 2011, just different ballparks bred different results (a .338 BABIP as a Red didn't help his 2010 season). This is why Fangraphs actually gives him a higher WAR in 2010 than 2011. The Bill James Projections give him a 1.3 PE for 2012, and I think that is probably right, if not too kind. I really don't get what the Dodgers have been doing the past few weeks. Giving 12 million dollars to a barely above replacement pitcher at the down side of his career is really laughable. He is a flyball pitcher that gave up more than 1 HR/9IP with San Diego last year. That is a real problem, and the Dodgers have completely ignored it.

How much should CJ Wilson make?

C.J. Wilson, the Left-handed Ace for the Texas Rangers, looks to be the top pitching free agent this season. He is expected to get really big money, and I want to take a look at how much he is worth statistically. I'll start by assuming that Roy Halladay is the standard for performance and pay (baseballplayerssalaries.com has him at "worth it", with a slightly better percentage of performance than team salary according to their metrics). He is making 20 million dollars this year with a RAR of 59 and a WAR of 6.5. This gives him a WASP of 3076. C.J. Wilson's WASP is currently 1562 (with a salary of $7.5 million and a WAR of 4.8). While WASP can't really help calculate the amount of years a player deserves (and that is a big sticking question in baseball, especially pitchers, because of guaranteed contracts), but using the Halladay standard on WASP, C.J Wilson is worth about twice as much as he is making. A $15 million dollar deal would be reasonable, remember that number when we get to the Winter Meetings.