Sunday, October 16, 2011

Free Agent Watch: Mark Buehrle

Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Mark Buehrle has a 15 million dollar option for 2012, it may not be exercised, which would make him a free agent. In 2011, he put up a 3.7 WAR, which would be worth 11.1 million dollars. Over the last 3 years, Buehrle has put up an average of 4.03 WAR, wortg 12.1 million according to the Halladay Standard. He is pretty clearly not worth the 15 million dollar option. Because he is not a strikeout pitcher, his PE was very pedestrian in 2011 at 2.84. His TR was slightly better at 9.54, which is not bad. His BABIP is about average for his career, and is lower than most pitchers, but that may be more due to his groundball tendencies than luck. However, his FIP was higher than his actual ERA, meaning that his fielders probably made him look better than he actually was in 2011. His reputation of being a groundball pitcher may be overblown as well, as he only had a 1.27 groundball/flyball ratio. He gives up about 1 HR every 9 innings in his career, which also goes against a groundball pitcher reputation. Because he doesn't strike out very many batters, and doesn't get as many groundballs as you would like, a lot of things are left to chance and luck, which should concern any GM or organization. His career FIP is 4.13, and it would seem that pitchers with that number would be quite common. The only real attractive thing is that he doesn't walk many batters, but his shiny 6.99 ERA in September in 2011 is not very attractive. I wouldn't dish out the money he is scheduled to make, or even what he is worth according to the Halladay Standard. There are better pitchers out there then Buehrle.

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