Monday, October 24, 2011

Free Agent Watch: Carlos Beltran

Carlos Beltran registered a 4.4 WAR in 2011, which is worth 13.2 million a year according to Halladay Standard. He had a 3.57 WAR average in past 3 years, worth 10.7 million. His Career offensive statistics: .361 OBP, .857 OPS, 1.65 PPG, and 2.34 PAPP. His 2011 stats: .385 OBP, .910 OPS, 1.32 PPG, and 2.38 PAPP. He is about average when it comes to pitches seen per plate appearance, at 3.78 for his career and 3.75 in 2011 (92.6 PPS and 94.24 PPS respectively). These offensive numbers don't blow you away, but they are very solid. There has been the really big issue of injuries throughout his career and that always has to be considered when giving the amount of money this guy is going to command. His 2009 and 2010 seasons combined don't add up to a full season, and was injured almost immediately in 2011 when he was traded to San Francisco. While a very solid defensive player in his career, he played pretty poorly in the field in 2011. One wonders if that will continue, with lack of trusted predictive fielding metrics, it is tough to tell. Some of the secondary metrics urge caution, especially BABIP. In his career, he has a BABIP of .303, but he had a .324 in 2011, and a .353 in San Francisco. You wouldn't be getting a poor player though, this is a guy who has an ISO of over .200 for his career, a Sec. Avg. of .373, and an Offensive Winning Percentage of .631. He will make your lineup better. The only real questions are: How much will he cost? Will he stay healthy?

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