Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Free Agent Watch: Freddy Garcia

Made just 1.5 million with the Yankees last season, and at a 3.4 WAR, deserved a 10.2 million dollar deal. Shouldn't be completely surprising, registered a 2.1 WAR in 2010, making just a million dollars with the White Sox. He clearly deserved at least 6 million for that performance. That the White Sox were willing to let Garcia go in free agency for 1.5 million raises some serious questions about the White Sox front office. So are there any indications that Garcia can (or cannot) repeat his performance? Some metrics aren't all that impressive, such as PE (1.7) and TR (8.93). This would suggest that Garcia is either overrated, lucky, or due for a bad season. His FIP was over .5 higher than his ERA, and he hasn't thrown 200 innings since 2006. There should also be some concern that 2011 was pretty fluky based on that he hadn't had an ERA lower than his 2011 ERA since 2001. The counter argument would be that his FIP was 3.35 in 2009, he just didn't have anything behind him. He is 35, and tons of pitchers have pitched very well after that, and he doesn't rely on flamethrowing stuff. I would not hesitate to sign him to a 2 year $4 million deal. I wouldn't bank on him being worth $10 million next year, but there really isn't much reason to believe he can't go out there and pitch very effectively. I just think it will be hard to go under the radar in the market again, especially after doing what he did in New York. However, I doubt he will be overpaid, everyone will think it is a fluke, and a low budget team (if the Yankees really lose their brains and don't resign him) could swoop in and get a very nice year or two from him.

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