Is Robinson Cano worth 14 million dollars?

The Yankees announced that they are picking up the 14 million dollar option on Robinson Cano's contract. Cano had a 4.6 WAR in 2011, worth 13.8 million. His 2010 season was worth 18.9 million with his 6.3 WAR. However, Cano has career OBP of .347, .349 in 2011, career high .381 in 2010. For a player that is heralded as one of the tops in the league, these numbers are pretty low. His Career OPS is .843, and he has walked just 5.1% in his career, far below league average (career best in 2010 at 8.2%, still slightly below league average of 8.5%. He has a Secondary Average of just .243 in his career (was slightly above .300 in both 2010 and 2011). His career BABIP is extremely high at .321 (had a .326 BABIP in 2010). He seems to have improved as a overall hitter in the past two seasons, but he seems to be profoundly overrated. I have heard comparisons to Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, and dozens of other great hitters. He simply does not have those numbers. Those comparisons are completely unfounded. He is an above average power hitter, homering over 4% of the time in the last 4 years, with an ISO of .231 in 2011 (.188 in his career). He has a career number of 5.8 runs created per game, and a .579 Offensive winning percentage. These numbers are good for sure, but maybe not as good as Cano is hyped to be. His PPS is absolutely pathetic at 80.98 for his career. An offensive of too many Cano type hitters would be an offensive a pitcher could face all day. The lack of patience and walks truly is concerning, and one wonders if his BABIP will come back to earth. It may never, because he certainly hits the ball hard, but if it does, Cano is in serious trouble. I want to repeat that obviously Cano is a good player, but he is obviously overrated, and may soon be overpaid.

Free Agent Watch: Freddy Garcia

Made just 1.5 million with the Yankees last season, and at a 3.4 WAR, deserved a 10.2 million dollar deal. Shouldn't be completely surprising, registered a 2.1 WAR in 2010, making just a million dollars with the White Sox. He clearly deserved at least 6 million for that performance. That the White Sox were willing to let Garcia go in free agency for 1.5 million raises some serious questions about the White Sox front office. So are there any indications that Garcia can (or cannot) repeat his performance? Some metrics aren't all that impressive, such as PE (1.7) and TR (8.93). This would suggest that Garcia is either overrated, lucky, or due for a bad season. His FIP was over .5 higher than his ERA, and he hasn't thrown 200 innings since 2006. There should also be some concern that 2011 was pretty fluky based on that he hadn't had an ERA lower than his 2011 ERA since 2001. The counter argument would be that his FIP was 3.35 in 2009, he just didn't have anything behind him. He is 35, and tons of pitchers have pitched very well after that, and he doesn't rely on flamethrowing stuff. I would not hesitate to sign him to a 2 year $4 million deal. I wouldn't bank on him being worth $10 million next year, but there really isn't much reason to believe he can't go out there and pitch very effectively. I just think it will be hard to go under the radar in the market again, especially after doing what he did in New York. However, I doubt he will be overpaid, everyone will think it is a fluke, and a low budget team (if the Yankees really lose their brains and don't resign him) could swoop in and get a very nice year or two from him.

Free Agent Watch: Nick Swisher

Mr. Moneyball himself, Nick Swisher, the first round pick by Billy Beane's A's in the 2002 draft, has an option year on his contract with the Yankees for 2012. The option is 10.25 million, with a 1 million year buyout (which means that if the Yankees decide to decline the option and allow him to be a free agent, they have to give him a million dollars). By definition, if the Yankees select to buy him out, the WAR they would get would be 0, and a 2000 WASP (ironically under the Halladay Standard). In 2011, Swisher gave the Yankees a 3.4 WAR, which would be right around the Halladay Standard under a 10.25 million dollar salary. His average WAR in the past 3 seasons has been 3.8, which would be make him below the Halladay Standard next year. Strangely, 2011 was his best defensive season, at a 1.1 WAR. It is hard to imagine he will put up that kind of season again. His offensive WAR, at 2.3, was lower than it had been in 09 and 10. Is this something that should be expected to continue? Or is it an aberration? This is the big question the Yankees have to face. Remember in the Vernon Wells and Adam Dunn article that there are not very many tells as to whether a player is losing it or not. That is, except for OBP. Nick Swisher has a career .360 OBP, a solid number, but one almost expects it to be better. In 2011, his OBP was .374, his best as a Yankee. His OPS was slightly smaller than it has been as a Yankee, at .822. His PPG was 1.27 in '11, slightly lower than his career 1.3. His PAPP was 2.49 in '11, better than his 2.56 career PAPP. So traditional numbers seem to say that Swisher is fine. What do the advanced metrics say? According to the Secondary Average, Swisher was better in 2011 than 2010 and about where he has been his whole career, and his "total average" was exactly the same as it has been his whole career. His isolated slugging is slightly discouraging, as hit was quite a bit lower than his career number. He is still seeing over 4 pitches per plate appearance, as he has his whole career. Most of his strike percentage metrics are exactly the same as they have been his whole career. He has never ran real well, but he grounded into more double plays than he has ever before. However, there really isn't much else to be concerned about in my opinion. I guess one could be concerned that his power might be waning, but he is only 30, so this seems unlikely. It seems worth it to pick up Swisher's option, and I expect the Yankees to do it, especially with their cash flow. A smaller moneyed club might want to pay the million dollars, and decline the option and see if they can get more efficiency elsewhere.

So the Yankees are going to start relying on Eduardo Nunez?

It has been suggested by some baseball pundits that the Yankees believe that Eduardo Nunez will start playing a bigger role in the 2012 season. I have no way of knowing if this is true, so I just want to look at Nunez himself and look at how he might fare in the bigger role. He only sees 3.61 pitches per plate appearance in his major league career, and 3.67 in 2011. The league average is 3.82. He is a contact hitter, putting the ball in play 82% of the time. Contact hitting tends to be overrated, baseball history shows that you can strikeout a lot and still be very productive, and you can make a lot of contact, but still not get on base. His batting average on balls in play was only .286. For comparison, Corey Hart's was .333, and Mike Carp's was .343. He waked in only 6.5% of his plate appearances, well below the league average of 8.3%. His extra-base hits percentage is also below average (his is 6.9, the league average is 7.5), and only homers once every 60 at-bats. He was a big time groundball hitter in 2010, at 1.82 GB/FB ratio, but was down around league average in his 338 2011 plate appearances. His OBP is .314, well below league average, and in the minors, his OBP was never above .365, and that was in A-ball. In AAA, his OBP was just .340. His slugging and OPS are also well below league averages. He never even reached a OPS of .800 in the minors. He only had 38 runs created in 2011, and has a career .85 PPG (which is terrible) and 2.68 PAPP (not too bad, but not good). His stolen base percentage is also below 80%. This all adds up to a .4 Offensive War in 2011. His defense was even worse, at -1.1 D-WAR, adding up to a -.7 WAR. There is really nothing statistically that shows Nunez would have a breakout, or even decent, season if given more playing time. In fact, it looks like Nunez is set up to be a total disaster, both offensively and defensively.